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Climate change adaptation: marine biodiversity and fisheries - Colin Creighton
 

Climate change adaptation: marine biodiversity and fisheries - Colin Creighton

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    Climate change adaptation: marine biodiversity and fisheries - Colin Creighton Climate change adaptation: marine biodiversity and fisheries - Colin Creighton Presentation Transcript

    • Climate Change Adaptation – Marine Biodiversity & FisheriesKEY MESSAGES –1- Portfolio approaches are essential2- Climate change information needs aresynergistic3- Climate change science challenges areboth specific & generic
    • Climate Change Adaptation – Marine Biodiversity & Fisheries 3 - Climate change science challenges are both specific & generic– quality science is always our goal andexpected by our community, especially in avery confused policy space
    • Major Science Challenges1 - Attribution– Climate change drivers and otherstressors [the 5% or the threshold issue]2 - Variability– Climate change and a variableclimate, environment, recruitment success, managementarrangements etc [e.g. the sand castle debate]3 - Extremes–– a low frequency high severity eventmay be agenda setting [frequency versus severity plot]4 – Synergies, feedbacks, interactions andunforeseen consequences – do we really understandour systems? [integration on all scales and contexts]
    • Major Science Challenges [cont]5 – Management pragmatism & adaptationsmarts– the so what? and do what? questions [the“doom & gloom” or opportunity focus]6 – Policy Confusion– arguably the mostconfused public policy space in Australia [andglobally multiple agendas] placing extraresponsibility on science7 – Science quality, certainty, errors &leadership - responding to a questioningcommunity, and justifiably so! [the downscaling ordown skilling issue]
    • Changing currents in marine biodiversity governance and management: Responding to climate change Spatial Scope State marine jurisdictions: • Queensland (between Cape York and the NSW border) • New South Wales • Tasmania (between the Kent Group and Southeast Cape) Commonwealth jurisdiction adjoining these state waters
    • Human adaptation options to increase resilienceof conservation-dependent seabirds and marinemammals impacted by climate changeAlistair Hobday (CSIRO)Lynda Chambers (BOM)John Arnould (Deakin)
    • 2060Frontiers in Ecology, 2006.•95% of all deep-sea reef forming corals occur above the aragonite saturation horizon•By 2099, 70% of these sites will be in undersaturated water
    • Project: 2010/536 Beach and Surf Tourism and Recreation in Australia: Vulnerability and AdaptationMike Raybould (Bond)Neil Lazarow (Griffith / DCCEE)Dave Anning (UNSW/Bond) 8
    • Opportunity-Range of long-term physical and biological datasets available in SE Australia to build understanding of natural variability, climate change patterns, likely range extensions and species interactions. Use this understanding to develop climate change related predictions and potential adaptive intervention strategies to enhance resilience of temperate reef ecosystems.
    • Richard LingPreadapting a Tasmanian coastal ecosystem toongoing climate change through reintroduction of alocally extinct speciesNic Bax (CSIRO and UTAS)Alistair Hobday (CSIRO)Neville Barrett (UTAS)
    • Key outputs Objective 2 Objective 1 Objective 3 Objective 41. Greatly extends existing scientific knowledge on the likely effects of climate change on coral reef fishes, considering for the first time impacts on important fisheries species (significant potential for high impact journal publications)2. Fundamental information on environmental tolerances (at multiple stages in the life-cycle), which is critical for improving captive breeding and aquaculture3. Directly contributes to local management of fisheries resources asidenitified GBRMPA Climate Change Action Plan., including i) to explore specific sensitivities of ecologically and economically important species ii) identifying areas of low and high resilience to climate change to prioritize management iii) identify thresholds beyond whichclimate change of coral trout Effects of climate change causes irreversible damage morgan.pratchett@jcu.edu.au
    • Vulnerability of barramundi and related industries to climate changeDean Jerry, Carolyn Smith-Keune, Guy Carton, Jeremy vanderWal, Igor Pirozzi, Kate Hutson and John Russell (QDEEDI) James Cook University Townsville, QLD Australia
    • Aims1) To consolidate natural resource information that is currently dispersed and inaccessible, but relevant to impacts on the oyster industry (e.g. pH, salinity, Chl-a, seagrass and wetlands, lease conditions etc.)2)Deliver it in a format with relevance to the oyster industry to inform practical, adaptive reponses to shifting and variable environmental conditions
    • Identification of climate-driven species shifts andadaptation options for recreational fishersClimate AdaptationDaniel GledhillIchthyologist, CSIRO10 & 11 February, 2011
    • WA Program DevelopmentNational Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan: Marine Biodiversity and Resources Steve Blake, WAMSI
    • FRDC: Climate Change workshopManagement implications of climate change effects on fisheries in WA Nick Caputi February 2011
    • JCU, Qld DEEDI, NT DoR, GBRMPA, QSIA, Infofish Australia, UTAS, RRRC, Maynard Marine
    • Climate Change AdaptationBuilding Community and Industry KnowledgeJenny Shaw
    • Integrated conceptual framework...with gaps still to be plugged Knowledge & Strategies for Adaptation Sentinel Biodiversity & Tourism Sentinel Indigenous, Species & Communities Recreation/Tourism & Commercial Species Marine Fisheries Marine Management Biodiversity Planning & Management Marine Systems and Populations – Inshore & Inshore & Estuary Shifts and Management Implications Estuary Based Based Aquaculture Wild Fisheries Nearshore and Estuary Climate Marine Biophysical Climate Impact Impact & Adaptation Understanding
    • Climate Change Adaptation – Marine Biodiversity & Fisheries 2 - Climate change information needs are synergistic– all resource management challengeshave multiple drivers and are multi -faceted in their solution
    • A Mitigation Example - “Blue” Carbon [UNEP]About 55% of all biological carbon capture is“blue” carbon – ie: in the world’s oceanecosystemsSome 93% of the earth’s CO2 is stored andcycled through our oceansBetween 50% - 71% of all carbon storage in theocean’s sediments occurs in just 0.5% of theocean area – the wetlands & estuaries
    • A Mitigation Example - “Blue” Carbon [UNEP]Wetlands and estuaries comprise less than 0.05of the world’s land based plant biomass but storea comparable amount of carbon....or capture and store about the equivalent ofhalf the world’s transport sector emissionsannually....but between 2% and 7% of our blue carbonsinks [wetlands] are lost annuallyClearly optimisation is essential – for habitat, food, biodiversity + carbon
    • An Adaptation Example We will respond to climate change by adapting and responding to climate variabilityAustralia already has the most variable climateClimate variability is the time frame for enterpriseprofitabilityThe extremes are where the profits & costs really count www.managingclimate.gov.au
    • July-September outcome… May POAMA prediction POAMAMax T tercile 1 POAMA RF tercile 3 POAMA Min T tercile 1
    • Keeping the Great Barrier Reef like this......a practice innovation exampleSustainable Landscapes
    • ...not this - implies attention to fostering more profitable and sustainable practices at commodity and catchment scalesSustainable Landscapes
    • Reef Rescue & Project Catalyst Roll Out Key Ingredients include: Grants [Reef Rescue] – Increased $incentives if move to all “A” practices Social Attitudes help determine $allocations by catchment Regulations [Qld Govt] - Ensuring all the industry moves to at least “C” practices Monitoring [Reef Rescue + Natural Resources Groups] Industry based practice monitoring by industry Algorithms to translate to likely change in off-farm export Water Quality & Ecosystem Health monitoring R&D [Project Catalyst + Reef Rescue + Managing Climate Variability + RDC Practice Projects] What are the “new extremes”? What are the A* opportunities to respond to these extremes? How do we accelerate innovation?Sustainable Landscapes
    • Climate Change Adaptation – Marine Biodiversity & Fisheries1 - Portfolio approaches are essential - – if we are to deliver research findings that meet multipleobjectives, policy contexts, investors and stakeholders
    • Characteristics of a Portfolio ApproachR&D programs should - meet the needs of multiple investors– already FRDC, DCCEE, DAFF & State Governments be bedded in multiple policyconstructs - eg National Adaptation Research Plan,National Climate Change Action Plan for Fisheries andAquaculture, FRDC Strategic Plan, NationalEnvironmental Research Plan, Marine Biodiversity etc
    • Characteristics of a Portfolio Approach [cont]R&D programs should - deliver to multiple stakeholders andsectors – c o n s e r v a t i o n , w i l d c o m m e r c i a l f i s h e r s ,aquaculture, recreational fishers, indigenous resourceusers, research agencies, management agencies, touristand other sectors be both national and regional inscope – with a recognition that change and innovationhappens at multiple levels
    • Essential elements of a portfolio approachThe key ingredients - conceptual frameworks – as a basis forestablishing the knowledge gaps and investmentpriorities to meet both investor and stakeholder needs smart data systems -management, discovery, synergy, rigor, disseminationand legacy research capability – c o m p a r a t i v e l y m u l t i -disciplinary and integrated, including across institutions
    • Essential elements of a portfolio approach [cont]The key ingredients – researcher information sharing andnetworks – s e l f m a n a g i n g t e a m s b o u g h t t o g e t h e r a tall levels within and across portfolios project management in a programcontext – phasing projects and outputs so projectssynergise & integrate outcome and knowledge deliveryorientation – at scales from individual user tonational agenda setting final reporting
    • Climate Change Adaptation – Marine Biodiversity & Fisheries Portfolio approaches are essential Climate change information needs aresynergistic Climate change science challenges areboth specific & generic