Civil Beat Poll - September 2012 president and economy results
NCHLP Polling Presentation
1. North Carolina House Legislative Partners
Survey of 600 Registered Voters
January 22 – 23, 2013
2. Level of Interest in Politics and Elections
On a scale from 1-10, with one being “not at all interested” and ten being “extremely interested, how
interested would you say you are in politics and elections for public office?
60% 54.3%
50% 8-10 Level of 4-7 Level of 1-3 Level of
N=
Interest Interest Interest
39.3% Liberal 123 67.5% 25.2% 5.7%
Moderate 193 47.7% 46.1% 5.7%
40% Conservative 259 54.4% 40.2% 5.0%
Republican 201 52.7% 39.3% 6.5%
Democrat 267 52.8% 40.4% 6.0%
30% Unaffiliated 125 60.8% 36.8% 2.4%
Tea Party 66 74.2% 18.2% 7.6%
White 450 53.3% 40.4% 5.3%
20% Black 115 59.1% 34.8% 4.3%
Male 288 54.2% 41.0% 3.8%
Female 312 54.5% 37.8% 6.7%
10% 5.3%
1.0%
0%
8-10 4-7 1-3 Don't
Know
N=600
3. North Carolina is Moderate to Conservative
If you had to label yourself, would you say you are a liberal, a moderate, or a conservative in your political
beliefs?
35% 32.2%
30%
Very Somewhat Somewhat Very
23.7% N= Moderate
25% Liberal Liberal Conservative Conservative
Republican 201 1.0% 0.5% 17.4% 33.3% 43.8%
19.5%
20% Democrat 267 16.9% 20.6% 38.2% 11.2% 7.5%
Unaffiliated 125 7.2% 8.8% 41.6% 16.0% 24.8%
11.2%
15% 9.3% Tea Party 66 1.5% 3.0% 10.6% 21.2% 63.6%
White 459 8.0% 8.0% 31.3% 21.6% 27.1%
10% Black 115 9.6% 25.2% 36.5% 10.4% 13.0%
Male 288 7.6% 8.7% 30.2% 21.9% 27.1%
4.2% Female 312 10.9% 13.5% 34.0% 17.3% 20.5%
5%
0%
N=600
4. How Voters Feel About Where NC is Headed
In general, do you believe that North Carolina is heading in the right direction or the wrong direction?
49.2%
50%
Right Wrong Don't
N=
Direction Direction Know/ Ref
45%
Liberal 123 41.5% 40.7% 17.9%
40% Moderate 193 47.7% 33.2% 19.2%
31.0% Conservative 259 54.8% 24.7% 20.5%
35% Republican 201 60.7% 22.4% 16.9%
Democrat 267 43.8% 35.2% 21.0%
30% Unaffiliated 125 40.8% 37.6% 21.6%
25% 19.8% Tea Party 66 65.2% 19.7% 15.2%
White 450 49.1% 30.9% 20.0%
20% Black 115 53.9% 28.7% 17.4%
Male 288 47.2% 30.6% 22.2%
15% Female 312 51.0% 31.4% 17.6%
10%
5%
0%
Right Wrong Dk/Refused
N=600
5. Most Important Issue Facing North Carolina
In your opinion, what is the single most important issue facing North Carolina today?
39.7%
40%
35%
30% 22.3%
25%
20%
15%
7.5% 7.0%
10% 4.9%
2.2% 1.8%
5% 1.0%
0%
Republicans, Democrats and Unaffiliated voters all cited “unemployment” and “the economy” as most
important issue – 69.2% (GOP), 60.6% (DEM) and 63.2% (UNA). Second issue set for GOP was Taxes
(11.4%) , DEM was Education (7.9%), UNA was Taxes (7.2%).
N=600 (Open Ended Question)
6. The Tea Party in North Carolina
Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?
84.0%
90%
80% N= Yes No Not Sure
Liberal 123 2.4% 95.9% 0.8%
70% Moderate 193 3.6% 92.2% 2.1%
Conservative 259 21.6% 71.8% 3.9%
60% Republican 201 21.4% 70.6% 5.5%
Democrat 267 3.0% 94.0% 1.1%
50% Unaffiliated 125 12.0% 83.2% 3.2%
172 8.1% 87.2%
Ticket Spilter 2.9%
Some College 175 13.7% 82.3% 2.3%
40%
College Grad. 283 8.1% 84.9% 2.9%
White 450 13.6% 81.1% 3.8%
30%
Black 115 3.5% 92.2% 0.0%
11.0% Male 288 11.5% 81.9% 4.2%
20% 312 10.6% 85.6%
Female 1.9%
10% 3.0%
0%
Yes No Not Sure
N=600
9. Issues of Interest
In general, are you most interested in economic issues, like taxes, jobs and the budget; foreign affairs and national security
issues, including terrorism and war; social issues, like education, healthcare and the environment; urban issues, like crime,
drugs, welfare reform, and immigration; or moral issues like “pro-life” and anti-pornography?
58.0%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20.7%
20%
10.8%
10% 4.5%
3.0% 3.0%
0%
Economic Social Moral Foreign Affairs Urban Don't
Know/Refused
10. Issues of Interest continued…
GOP DEM IND
70% 65.8%
61.2%
52.8%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20.0%
20% 17.1% 16.4%
10.4% 10.5%
7.9%
10% 5.7%
4.5%
2.9% 3.5%
2.6%
1.3%
0%
Economic Social Moral Foreign Affairs Urban
N=600
11. Job Rating of the NC State House
69.2%
70%
Excellent/ Only Fair/
N= Refused
Good Poor
60% Republican 201 26.9% 62.2% 10.9%
Democrat 267 15.4% 76.8% 7.9%
Unaffiliated 125 28.0% 64.0% 8.0%
50% Liberal 123 8.1% 82.1% 9.8%
Moderate 193 19.7% 72.0% 8.3%
40% Conservative 259 30.9% 61.0% 8.1%
Rural 250 22.4% 69.6% 8.0%
21.7% Suburban 214 23.8% 68.7% 7.5%
30% Urban 128 14.8% 71.9% 13.3%
Ticket Spliter 172 23.8% 70.3% 5.8%
20% White Suburban Female 75 26.7% 64.0% 9.3%
9.2% Male 288 20.1% 71.9% 8.0%
Female 312 23.1% 66.7% 10.3%
10%
0%
Excellent/Good Only Fair/Poor Refused
N=600
12. Job Rating of GOP Leadership in Congress
How would you rate the job of the Republican leadership in the United States Congress? Would you say
they have done an excellent job, a good job, only a fair job or a poor job?
90% 82.3%
Excellent/ Only Fair/
N= Refused
Good Poor
80%
Republican 201 27.9% 70.1% 2.0%
Democrat 267 4.9% 90.6% 4.5%
70%
Unaffiliated 125 16.0% 82.4% 1.6%
Liberal 123 2.4% 91.9% 5.7%
60%
Moderate 193 9.8% 88.1% 2.1%
Conservative 259 25.1% 72.6% 2.3%
50%
Rural 250 18.4% 78.4% 3.2%
40% Suburban 214 11.7% 85.0% 3.2%
Urban 128 10.9% 87.5% 1.6%
30% Ticket Spliter 172 12.8% 61.2% 4.1%
White Suburban Female 75 10.7% 86.7% 2.7%
14.8%
20% Male 288 16.0% 81.6% 2.4%
Female 312 13.8% 82.7% 3.5%
10% 3.0%
0%
Excellent/Good Only Fair/Poor Refused
N=600
13. State Sales Tax vs. State Income Tax
Which of the following would you say is the best way to tax the citizens of North Carolina?
I. A state sales tax where everyone pays the same tax rate for all goods and services so revenue is collected
based upon how much a person spends, OR
II. A state income tax rate where people who earn more pay more while lower income families pay less.
60% 51.7% State State
DK/Refused
Sales Tax Income Tax
Republican 54.7% 33.8% 11.4%
50% 40.2% Democrat 25.8% 70.0% 4.1%
Unaffiliated 44.8% 43.2% 12.0%
Liberal 26.0% 69.1% 4.9%
40% Moderate 30.6% 60.1% 9.3%
Conservative 54.4% 37.1% 8.5%
Rural 38.0% 50.8% 11.2%
30% Suburban 44.4% 50.0% 5.6%
Urban 35.9% 57.0% 7.0%
Male 47.6% 45.5% 6.9%
20% Female 33.3% 57.4% 9.3%
8.2%
10%
0%
Sales Tax Income Tax DK/Refused
14. Tax Reform
“Eliminating the state income tax for all citizens while expanding the state sales tax to include
professional services such as legal fees, haircuts, labor for auto repairs and entertainment items such as
movie tickets.”
60% 51.8%
Favor Opposed DK/Refused
Republican 44.3% 44.8% 10.9%
Democrat 29.6% 59.6% 10.9%
50%
Unaffiliated 40.0% 47.2% 12.8%
36.8%
Liberal 32.5% 58.5% 8.9%
Moderate 29.0% 58.0% 13.0%
40%
Conservative 44.4% 45.2% 10.4%
Rural 36.4% 50.4% 13.2%
30% Suburban 39.3% 50.0% 10.7%
Urban 31.3% 60.2% 8.6%
Male 41.3% 28.3% 10.4%
20% Female 32.7% 55.1% 12.2%
11.3%
10%
0%
Favor Opposed DK/Refused
15. Tax Reform
“Eliminating the state income tax for corporations and individual business owners s a way to spur new
economic growth while expanding the state sales tax.”
53.8%
60%
Favor Opposed DK/Refused
Republican 48.3% 40.8% 10.9%
Democrat 27.0% 62.5% 10.5%
50%
Unaffiliated 35.2% 55.2% 9.6%
35.7% Liberal 18.7% 74.0% 7.3%
40% Moderate 29.0% 60.6% 10.4%
Conservative 48.3% 41.3% 10.4%
Rural 38.0% 50.4% 11.6%
30% Suburban 36.9% 50.9% 12.1%
Urban 27.3% 67.2% 5.5%
Male 39.2% 51.0% 9.7%
20% Female 32.4% 56.4% 11.2%
10.5%
10%
0%
Favorable Unfavorable No Opinion
17. Tax Reform
“Having a new state sales tax on food and groceries in order to lower your state income tax.”
66.7%
70%
Tax on Food and
Favor Opposed DK/Refused
Groceries
60% Sample = 600 27.3% 66.7% 6.0%
Republican 32.8% 61.2% 6.0%
50% Democrat 25.5% 69.3% 5.2%
Unaffiliated 23.2% 68.8% 8.0%
Liberal 20.3% 75.6% 4.1%
40% Moderate 20.7% 71.5% 7.8%
27.3%
Conservative 35.5% 59.8% 4.6%
30% Rural 31.6% 62.8% 10.7%
Suburban 24.8% 68.7% 6.5%
Urban 21.9% 72.7% 5.5%
20%
Male 30.6% 64.9% 4.5%
6.0% Female 24.4% 68.3% 7.4%
10%
0%
Favorable Unfavorable No Opinion
18. Summary: Tax Reform
To help solve the state budget problem, lawmakers are looking at ways to reform our tax code in order to
provide a stable revenue stream and make the tax code more reflective of people’s spending habits than
taxing the income they earn.
Favor Oppose
65.0% 66.7%
70%
53.8%
60% 51.8%
50%
36.8% 35.7%
40%
30.2%
27.3%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Expand Sales Tax Eliminate Income Tax/ Eliminate Sales Tax on Food
Corporate Deducation/Charities
19. Expanding Sales Tax or Spending Cuts
When it comes to reducing the state taxes we pay, which of the following options would you prefer most?
I. Lower the income tax on individuals and businesses by expanding the state sales tax to other goods and
services OR
II. Lowering these income taxes by implementing state spending cuts and use that savings to lower taxes.
63.0%
70%
Expand Spending DK/
Sales Tax Cuts Refused
60% Republican 21.9% 62.2% 15.9%
Democrat 20.2% 65.9% 13.9%
50% Unaffiliated 24.0% 57.6% 18.4%
Liberal 18.7% 59.3% 22.0%
Moderate 21.8% 60.1% 18.1%
40%
Conservative 22.8% 66.4% 10.8%
21.3% Rural 23.2% 64.8% 12.0%
30% Suburban 19.6% 60.7% 19.6%
Urban 19.5% 64.8% 15.6%
15.7% Male 21.9% 63.5% 14.6%
20%
Female 20.8% 62.5% 16.7%
10%
0%
Expand Sales Spending DK/ Refusedx
Tax Cuts
20. How Voters Receive Their Television Signal
Republicans: 52.2% Cable 32.3% Satellite
Democrats : 62.2% Cable 22.5% Satellite
Unaffiliated: 60.8% Cable 27.2% Satellite
58.2%
60%
50%
40%
26.8%
30%
20%
6.3%
10% 2.0% 4.0%
0.8% 0.8%
0%
Don't Have Other Internet Phone Antenna Cable Satellite TV
Provider
21. Viewing Habits by Political Affiliation
24.90%
25% 17.40%
20.90%
20%
4.50%
15% 13.9%
5.0%
10%
5.0%
5% 1.5%
0%
Daytime/Soaps HGTV/Cooking PBS Sports Movie Primetime Local News National
Channels CNN/FOX
22. How Long have you lived North Carolina?
45.2% said their entire life. As a follow up, we asked: What was the last state you lived in, if it was another
country, then just say so?
Map of Top 10 States:
13.5%
4.3% 4.6%
4.6%
4.0%
9.8%
5.8%
4.9%
4.0%
States from the Northeast (34%) 7.1%
and Southeast (32.8%) make up 2/3
of where voters lived last before
moving to North Carolina.
23. Demographic Overview
• 21.3% - Urban Based Voters • 33.5% Registered Democratic
• 35.7% - Suburban Based Voters • 44.0% Registered Republican
• 41.7% - Rural Based Voters • 20.8% Registered Unaffiliated
• 45.2% - Lived in NC entire Life
• 37.8% Always/Usually Vote DEM
• 25.7% - > 20years
• 31.5% Always/Usually Vote GOP
• 12.3% - 11-20 years
• 28.7% Say They’re Ticket Splitters
• 16.2% - < 10 years
• 29.3% ----65 or older
• 47.2% - Are College Graduates
• 25.7% ---55-64 years old
• 29.2% - Received some College
• 24.7% ---41-54 years old
• 19.0% - High School Degree
• 16.83% ---26-40 years old
• 3.2% - Some High School or Less
• 2.5% ---18-25 years old
• 52.0% Female • 75.0% White
• 48.0% Male • 21.5% non-White
• 19.2% Black