Loading…

Flash Player 9 (or above) is needed to view presentations.
We have detected that you do not have it on your computer. To install it, go here.

Like this document? Why not share!

China's Polysilicon Market in Solar Photovoltaic Industry

on

  • 1,797 views

"Description: ...

"Description:
Global hiking price of oil, as well as alarming energy crisis, push rapid development of renewable energies around the world, with solar energy an outstanding one. Driven by global booming solar energy, China’s solar cell production has developed rapidly in past three years, with output CAGR of 144% from 2007 to 2009. However, domestic supply of polysilicon, key raw material of solar cell, has heavily depended on import (78.46% in 2008), due to high cost and small output caused by immature technology.

Strong demand for solar cell and high profit rate attract increasing enterprises to engage in polysilicon production in China after 2007. Polysilicon output for 2009 is estimated to reach 12,500 tonnes and the supply in 2010 is expected to meet the demand with new capacity release. What’s the influence of this change will be exerted on China’s status in global solar PV industry? Will China’s soaring polysilicon output influence price or profit of international polysilicon manufacturers, such as MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. and Huku Material Inc. What change will arise for China’s main polysilicon suppliers?

As overseas experiences demonstrate, sustainable development of polysilicon relies on solar PV advance, and the latter’s growth is greatly driven by governmental policy on feed-in tariff, thus a fresh focus comes to following outlook: what is China’s attitude towards feed-in tariff? Will China’s PV market still depend on overseas’ and how is the growing momentum in the following years?

Moreover, owing to lack of national long-term plan for polysilicon development, China’s polysilicon industry is facing many problems, such as overcapacity, lack of core production technology and ineffective technology in tail gas treatment, all of which have severely dragged sustainable development of polysilicon. With great technology breakthroughs in recent two years, what’s the potential change in the future?

This report will unveil penetration of above focuses, and to further explore these intelligences, key aspects will be presented as follows:

 What are reasons for rapid development of polysilicon industry?
 What are main problems in polysilicon industry?
 What is influence of latest policies on future polysilicon development?
 How does competitive landscape of different solar cells present?
 How does interaction between polysilicon and solar PV industry function?
 What are opportunities from future polysilicon industry?
 What are profiles of major polysilicon producers and end users together with discussion on their key business strategies?
"

Statistics

Views

Total Views
1,797
Views on SlideShare
1,797
Embed Views
0

Actions

Likes
0
Downloads
29
Comments
0

0 Embeds 0

No embeds

Accessibility

Upload Details

Uploaded via as Adobe PDF

Usage Rights

© All Rights Reserved

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
Post Comment
Edit your comment

China's Polysilicon Market in Solar Photovoltaic Industry China's Polysilicon Market in Solar Photovoltaic Industry Document Transcript

  • CCM Data & Primary Intelligence China's Polysilicon Market in Solar Photovoltaic Industry - The First Edition November 2009 Researched & Prepared by: Guangzhou CCM Information Science and Technology Co., Ltd . Guangzhou, P. R. China Copyright by Guangzhou CCM Information Science and Technology Co., Ltd. (P. R. China) Any publication, distribution or copying of the content in this report is prohibited. Website: http://www.cnchemicals.com Tel: +86-20-38768926 Fax: +86-20-38768956 Email: econtact@cnchemicals.com Website: http://www.cnchemicals.com Email: econtact@cnchemicals.com Tel: +86-20-3761 6606 Fax: +86-20-3761 6968
  • CCM Data & Primary Intelligence Description: Global hiking price of oil, as well as alarming energy crisis, push rapid development of renewable energies around the world, with solar energy an outstanding one. Driven by global booming solar energy, China’s solar cell production has developed rapidly in past three years, with output CAGR of 144% from 2007 to 2009. However, domestic supply of polysilicon, key raw material of solar cell, has heavily depended on import (78.46% in 2008), due to high cost and small output caused by immature technology. Strong demand for solar cell and high profit rate attract increasing enterprises to engage in polysilicon production in China after 2007. Polysilicon output for 2009 is estimated to reach 12,500 tonnes and the supply in 2010 is expected to meet the demand with new capacity release. What’s the influence of this change will be exerted on China’s status in global solar PV industry? Will China’s soaring polysilicon output influence price or profit of international polysilicon manufacturers, such as MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. and Huku Material Inc. What change will arise for China’s main polysilicon suppliers? As overseas experiences demonstrate, sustainable development of polysilicon relies on solar PV advance, and the latter’s growth is greatly driven by governmental policy on feed-in tariff, thus a fresh focus comes to following outlook: what is China’s attitude towards feed-in tariff? Will China’s PV market still depend on overseas’ and how is the growing momentum in the following years? Moreover, owing to lack of national long-term plan for polysilicon development, China’s polysilicon industry is facing many problems, such as overcapacity, lack of core production technology and ineffective technology in tail gas treatment, all of which have severely dragged sustainable development of polysilicon. With great technology breakthroughs in recent two years, what’s the potential change in the future? This report will unveil penetration of above focuses, and to further explore these intelligences, key aspects will be presented as follows: What are reasons for rapid development of polysilicon industry? What are main problems in polysilicon industry? What is influence of latest policies on future polysilicon development? How does competitive landscape of different solar cells present? How does interaction between polysilicon and solar PV industry function? What are opportunities from future polysilicon industry? What are profiles of major polysilicon producers and end users together with discussion on their key business strategies? Website: http://www.cnchemicals.com Email: econtact@cnchemicals.com Tel: +86-20-3761 6606 Fax: +86-20-3761 6968
  • CCM Data & Primary Intelligence Main content: No. Content Page Executive summary 1 Introduction and methodology 3 I Overview of polysilicon industry in China 5 II Soaring capacity and existent problems 8 II-1 Capacity and output 8 II-2 Key producers 11 II-3 Resources for polysilicon production 14 II-4 Main problems in polysilicon industry 16 III Influencing factors from government 18 IV Trade analysis on polysilicon 21 V Competition among polysilicon, monocrystalline silicon and non-crystalline 23 V-1 Polysilicon consumption situation 23 V-2 Competition from monocrystalline silicon and non-crystalline silicon 25 VI Market outlook of solar PV industry/Renewable energy industry 26 VI-1 Forecast on polysilicon production to 2013 26 VI-2 Position change of China’s solar PV 28 VII Market outlook of polysilicon in China’s solar PV industry 29 VII-1 Interaction between polysilicon and solar PV 29 VII-2 Outlook of polysilicon application in solar PV industry 31 VII-2-1 Development of China’s solar cell industry 31 VII-2-2 Consumption of polysilicon 35 VIII Competition and opportunity 36 IX Profile 37 IX-1 Key producers 37 IX-1.1 Jiangsu Zhongneng Polysilicon Technology Development Co., Ltd. 37 … … 0 IX-1.13 Sichuan Yongxiang Co., Ltd. 49 IX-2 Key end users 51 IX-2.1 Wuxi Suntech Power Co., Ltd. 51 … … 0 IX-2.7 Canadian Solar Inc. 55 Website: http://www.cnchemicals.com Email: econtact@cnchemicals.com Tel: +86-20-3761 6606 Fax: +86-20-3761 6968
  • CCM Data & Primary Intelligence Executive summary: Production Promoted by some key driven factors, China’s polysilicon industry witnessed capacity explosion in past three years. By the end of Oct. 2009, China’s polysilicon capacity has reached ****t/a, with output of **** tonnes in 2008. Rising polysilicon industry is changing China’s status in the world, and will generate profound impacts on world’s polysilicon industry in the coming years. However, many problems, such as overcapacity, immature technology and tail gas treatement problem, have to be solved in the following years to ensure the sound and orderly development of China’s polysilicon industry. Government policies Chinese government’s attitude, in the long run, towards polysilicon development is supportive, though it approved some proposals to curb excessive capacity and redundant construction on September 30, 2009. Trade analysis In the past, China’s polysilicon consumption has been depending on import, and little was exported due to small output. However, with rising of domestic polysilicon supply, dependence on import will decline significantly in the next years. Consumption China’s supply still can’t match its demand now, promoted by rapid development of solar cell industry in 2009. However, China’s polysilicon capacity has soared in recent two years because of government’s support policies and the fat profits of this industry, which have led to overcapacity in 2009. Competition from monocrystalline silicon and non-crystalline silicon CCM estimates that polysilicon will still take dominant market share in the following years in PV market. Despite advantages in low product cost and low wastes, value of conversion rate/product cost of non-crystalline silicon solar cell still can’t catch up with that of polysilicon solar cell. Once price of polysilicon decreases to reasonable level and global economy recovers, which is happening now, development of non-crystalline silicon solar will become slow. Website: http://www.cnchemicals.com Email: econtact@cnchemicals.com Tel: +86-20-3761 6606 Fax: +86-20-3761 6968
  • CCM Data & Primary Intelligence Outlook of solar energy industry and renewable energy industry With polysilicon’s increasing capacity and output, lower cost, higher conversion rate of solar cell, the status of solar PV will gain great improvement in renewable energy in next five years. Outlook of polysilicon application in solar energy industry With immature technology, China’s polysilicon supply mainly depended on imported product before 2009 which hampered China’s solar cell development. Moreover, polysilicon’s high product cost caused by inefficient technology, restrained the promotion of polysilicon solar cell in China’s market, and China’s PV market developed slowly. However, this situation is changing now. Domestic solar cell demand is determined by on-grid price and cost of solar power generation. Once these two problems are solved, domestic demand will increase considerably. However, based on current government’s attitude about the pricing for electricity from solar power and technology level of PV industry, installation capacity of solar cell will not increase much in the following *** years. Competition and opportunity Future competition of polysilicon industry will be conducted from all the aspects. With more and more intense competition from overseas countries and domestic manufacturers, industrial integration will be the future trend. Moreover, banks’ cautious attitude in lending money to polysilicon manufacturers is actually an opportunity to investment institutions. Character of CCM' Report: The aim of this report is to provide powerful assistance to the strategy group and the management team in making correct decision as how to penetrate the ever-increasing China market and how to catch the maximum commercial opportunities. The report is formulated independently by CCM’s professional market researchers, based on the first-hand and primary data which are analyzed by scientific methodology, confirmed with both manufacturers/end users/traders and legal authorities, and presented in a logic way. Sample pages: Website: http://www.cnchemicals.com Email: econtact@cnchemicals.com Tel: +86-20-3761 6606 Fax: +86-20-3761 6968
  • I Overview of polysilicon industry in China In past three years, China is working hard on establishing a complete polysilicon industrial chain, from silicon ore, industrial grade silicon, polysilicon, silicon ingot and silicon wafer to solar cell…… II Soaring capacity and existent problems II-2 Key producers With rapid development of solar cell production in China, increasing numbers of new entrants have entered into polysilicon production…… Table II-2-1 Domestic key active polysilicon producers, as of Oct. 2009 Capacity Capacity Output No. Name Ownership Technology '08 (t/a) Oct. '09 (t/a) '08 (t) 1 0000000000000000 000000 000000 000000 000000 000000 2 00000000000 Private 000000 0 000000 000000 3 000000000000 000000 000000 000000 000000 000000 4 000000 000000 Siemens 000000 000000 000000 5 000000 000000 000000 000000 000000 200 6 Luoyang Zhonggui High-tech Co., Ltd. 000000 000000 000000 000000 000000 7 00000000 000000 000000 000000 000000 000000 000000 8 000000 00000000 000000 000000 000000 000000 000000 9 0000000 0000000 000000 000000 000000 000000 000000 10 000000000 00000 000000 000000 000000 000000 000000 11 00000 000000000 000000 000000 000000 000000 000000 12 00000000000000 000000 000000 000000 000000 000000 13 0000 0000000000 000000 000000 000000 000000 000000 14 0000000 0000000 000000 000000 000000 000000 000000 15 00000000000000 000000 000000 000000 000000 000000 16 00000000 000000 000000 UMG 000000 000000 0 00000000000000 000000 000000 000000 000000 000000 17 00000000000 000 000000 000000 000000 000000 000000 18 00000000000000 000000 000000 100 000000 000000 Others - - 000000 000000 000000 Total - - 0000000 000000 000000 Source: CCM International Note: ①Siemens represents modified Siemens process ②UMG represents upgraded Metallurgic Grade from Apolli Technology
  • III Influencing factors from government The attitude of Chinese government towards polysilicon industry, in the long run, is to support its development, though the government has released some policies to restraint China’s overheated investment in polysilicon projects recently.…… IV Trade analysis on polysilicon In the past, China’s polysilicon consumption has greatly depended on import and little Chinese product has been exported due to China’s small output…… Table IV-1 Import and export situation of silicon products under HS code 28046190①, 2004-2009② Year Import volume Import value Import price Export volume Export value Export price (kg) (USD) (USD/kg) (kg) (USD) (USD/kg) 2004 000000 80,802,210 000000 000000 000000 000000 2005 000000 000000 000000 521,857 000000 000000 2006 000000 000000 89.89 000000 000000 000000 2007 9,211,024 000000 000000 000000 87,895,356 000000 2008 000000 000000 000000 000000 000000 29.18 2009 000000 000000 000000 000000 000000 000000 Source: CCM International Note: ① Products under HS code 28046190 include silicon whose silicon content of at least 99.99%, containing solar grade polysilicon, electric grade polysilicon and other silicon. ② The situation of 2009 is as of August 2009 V Competition among polysilicon, monocrystalline silicon and non-crystalline silicon market in China Taking production cost and conversion rate into account, core competition of different silicon products in solar cell application, focuses on polysilicon and non-crystalline silicon. Table V-2-1 Comparisons between polysilicon and non-crystalline silicon, as of Oct. 2009 Item Polysilicon Non-crystalline silicon Electricity cost, USD/kw 000000 000000 Average conversion rate 000000 000000 Pollution 000000 000000 Source: CCM International
  • VII Market outlook of polysilicon in China’s solar PV industry Influence on market Influence on price Table VII-1-1 Price of polysilicon and its unit cost in solar cell, 2005-2009 Year 2005 2008 2009 Price of polysilicon, USD/kg 000000 000000 000000 Unit cost in solar cell, USD/kg 000000 000000 000000 Source: CCM International Decreasing polysilicon price in China will facilitate price reduction of domestic solar cell, thus enhancing its market competitiveness in global stage. Influence on product structure Table VII-1-2 Market share of solar cell with different silicon as raw material, 2008 Non-crystalline silicon solar Solar cell Polysilicon solar cell Monocrystalline silicon solar cell cell Market share 000000 000000 000000 Source:CCM International VII-2 Outlook of polysilicon application in solar PV industry VII-2-1 Development of China’s solar cell industry Current situation of Chinese solar photovoltaic industry Promoted by the world’s booming solar PV industry, China’s solar cell industry has been developing rapidly since 2005……. Table VII-2-1-1 Domestic crystalline silicon solar cell① production No. Name Capacity '08 (MW) Capacity '09 (MW) Output '08 (MW) 1 Wuxi Suntech Power Co., Ltd. 000000 000000 000000 2 00 0000 000000 000000 000000 3 0000 00 000000 000000 000000 4 00 0000 000000 000000 000000 5 0 00000 000000 000000 000000 6 000 000 200 000000 000000 7 0000 00 000000 000000 000000 8 000 000 000000 200 000000 9 0000 00 000000 000000 000000
  • 10 ET Solar Group 000000 000000 000000 11 00 0000 000000 000000 000000 12 00 0000 000000 000000 000000 13 00 0000 000000 000000 000000 14 00 0000 000000 000000 50 Others 000000 000000 000000 Total 000000 000000 000000 Source: CCM International Note: ①Crystalline silicon solar cell includes polysilicon and monocrystalline silicon solar cell VIII Competition and opportunity Opportunity Industrial integration: ….. Investment institution: ….. No encouragement on importing polysilicon: ……