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The Japan Fixed Income Market Instruments, Key Players and Dynamics 09 November 2009 Christian Carrillo Senior Rates Strategist, Asia-Pacific
Disclaimer IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER:  The information herein is not intended to be an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, any securities and including any expression of opinion, has been obtained from or is based upon sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness although Société Générale (“SG”) believe it to be clear, fair and not misleading.  SG, and their affiliated companies in the SG Group, may from time to time deal in, profit from the trading of, hold or act as market-makers or act as advisers, brokers or bankers in relation to the securities, or derivatives thereof, of persons, firms or entities mentioned in this document or be represented on the board of such persons, firms or entities.  Employees of SG, and their affiliated companies in the SG Group, or individuals connected to then, other than the authors of this report, may from time to time have a position in or be holding any of the investments or related investments mentioned in this document. Each author of this report is not permitted to trade in or hold any of the investments or related investments which are the subject of this document.  SG and their affiliated companies in the SG Group are under no obligation to disclose or take account of this document when advising or dealing with or for their customers.  The views of SG reflected in this document may change without notice.  To the maximum extent possible at law, SG does not accept any liability whatsoever arising from the use of the material or information contained herein.  This research document is not intended for use by or targeted at retail customers.  Should a retail customer obtain a copy of this report they should not base their investment decisions solely on the basis of this document but must seek independent financial advice.  Important notice:  The circumstances in which materials provided by SG Fixed & Forex Research, SG Commodity Research, SG Convertible Research, SG Technical Research and SG Equity Derivatives Research have been produced are such (for example because of reporting or remuneration structures or the physical location of the author of the material) that it is not appropriate to characterise it as independent investment research as referred to in European MIF directive and that it should be treated as a marketing material even if it contains a research recommendation (« recommandation d’investissement à caractère promotionnel »).  However, it must be made clear that all publications issued by SG will be clear, fair, and not misleading. Analyst Certification:  Each author of this research report hereby certifies that (i) the views expressed in the research report accurately reflect his or her personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers and (ii) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be related, directly or indirectly, to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. Notice to French Investors:   This publication is issued in France by or through Société Générale ("SG") which is authorised by the CECEI and regulated by the AMF (Autorité des Marchés Financiers).  Notice to UK investors:  This publication is issued in the United Kingdom by or through Société Générale ("SG") London Branch  which is regulated by the Financial Services Authority ("FSA") for the conduct of its UK business. Notice To US Investors:  This report is intended only for major US institutional investors pursuant to SEC Rule 15a-6.  Any US person wishing to discuss this report or effect transactions in any security discussed herein should do so with or through SG Americas Securities, LLC (“SGAS”) 1221 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10020.  (212)-278-6000.  THIS RESEARCH REPORT IS PRODUCED BY SOCIETE GENERALE AND NOT SGAS. Notice to Japanese Investors:  This report is distributed in Japan by Société Générale Securities (North Pacific) Ltd., Tokyo Branch, which is regulated by the Financial Services Agency of Japan.  The products mentioned in this report may not be eligible for sale in Japan and they may not be suitable for all types of investors. Notice to Australian Investors:  Société Générale Australia Branch (ABN 71 092 516 286) (SG) takes responsibility for publishing this document.  SG holds an AFSL no. 236651 issued under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) ("Act").  The information contained in this newsletter is only directed to recipients who are wholesale clients as defined under the Act. IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES:  Please refer to our website: http:www.sgresearch.socgen.com http://www.sgcib.com. Copyright: The Société Générale Group 2009.  All rights reserved.
JGB Background Information Ownership of JGB Market Japan’s Net Worth The JPY Fixed income market is very domestic. We need to know about JGBs Source: BoJ and SG Fixed Income Research
JGB Issuance/Absorption Dynamics Japan’s Net Issuance and Seasonality Even as headlines focus on increasing JGB issuance, non-market support and seasonality are critical Source: BoJ, MoF and SG Fixed Income Research
Main Participants in the JGB Market Banks, Lifers, GPF, BoJ and Foreigners
JGB Demand: Depositary Corporations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],JGB Ownership Short and Mid Sector Depo Corp Assets and Liabilities (JPY Tn) Source: BoJ, Bloomberg and SG Fixed Income Research
JGB Demand: Life Insurance ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],JGB Ownership Super-Long Sector Lifer Assets and Liabilities (JPYtn) Source: BoJ and SG Fixed Income Research
JGB Demand: GPF ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],GPF investment holdings GPF domestic bond allocation Source: GPF and SG Fixed Income Research
JGB Demand: The Bank of Japan/MoF JGBs at BoJ vs banknotes issued ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],JGBs holdings as % of assets Source: BoJ and SG Fixed Income Research
JGB Demand: Foreigners ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],JGB Ownership Long Sector Foreign Investors Investment Position in Japan Source: BoJ and SG Fixed Income Research
Overview of Market Dynamics Dynamics and Case Studies
A Long term look to the JGB market ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],A long(ish) history of JGB yields Typical shapes of JGB curve Source: Bloomberg and SG Fixed Income Research
The 10y JGB Futures ,[object Object],[object Object],Source: TSE and SG Fixed Income Research
JPY Over-the Counter Interest Rate Derivatives Description ,[object Object],[object Object]
Typical Trades: 5y-7y-10y IRS ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Bloomberg and SG Fixed Income Research 5y-7y-10y a directional trade 5y2y-7y3y same idea, just more leveraged
Typical Trades: Short-Term Forward Steepener/Flattener ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Bloomberg and SG Fixed Income Research Short-end forward steepeners a bet on BoJ exit
Typical Trades: Medium-Long Term Steepener/Flattener ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Bloomberg and SG Fixed Income Research Medium-term slope is segmented from front-end Medium-term slope is highly correlated to JF performance
Typical Trades: The JGB Inflation-Linked Bond ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Bloomberg and SG Fixed Income Research JGB linkers not floored, CPI behavior is a risk Current valuations show significant stress
Basis You Need To Know: Cross-Currency Swap Basis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Bloomberg and SG Fixed Income Research USD/JPY CCS basis have long history of volatility Some normalisation already taken place
Typical Trades: JGB Swap Spreads ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Bloomberg and SG Fixed Income Research JGB ASW also highlight market segmentation Also can show strong dislocations in time of stress
Typical Trades: Super-Long Curvature ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],JPY curvature behaves very differently in super-long end Influenced by exogenous factors such as FX and equities
Basis You Need To Know: JPY Tibor-Libor Basis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Tibor-Libor basis volaitlity an expression of relative liquidity Tibor-Libor correlation to FX and CCS basis has changed
Basis You Need To Know: JPY 3mx6m Libor Basis
Your partner in… Euro Capital Markets Derivatives Structured Finance

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London Jpy Rates Markets 091109

  • 1. The Japan Fixed Income Market Instruments, Key Players and Dynamics 09 November 2009 Christian Carrillo Senior Rates Strategist, Asia-Pacific
  • 2. Disclaimer IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: The information herein is not intended to be an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, any securities and including any expression of opinion, has been obtained from or is based upon sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness although Société Générale (“SG”) believe it to be clear, fair and not misleading. SG, and their affiliated companies in the SG Group, may from time to time deal in, profit from the trading of, hold or act as market-makers or act as advisers, brokers or bankers in relation to the securities, or derivatives thereof, of persons, firms or entities mentioned in this document or be represented on the board of such persons, firms or entities. Employees of SG, and their affiliated companies in the SG Group, or individuals connected to then, other than the authors of this report, may from time to time have a position in or be holding any of the investments or related investments mentioned in this document. Each author of this report is not permitted to trade in or hold any of the investments or related investments which are the subject of this document. SG and their affiliated companies in the SG Group are under no obligation to disclose or take account of this document when advising or dealing with or for their customers. The views of SG reflected in this document may change without notice. To the maximum extent possible at law, SG does not accept any liability whatsoever arising from the use of the material or information contained herein. This research document is not intended for use by or targeted at retail customers. Should a retail customer obtain a copy of this report they should not base their investment decisions solely on the basis of this document but must seek independent financial advice. Important notice: The circumstances in which materials provided by SG Fixed & Forex Research, SG Commodity Research, SG Convertible Research, SG Technical Research and SG Equity Derivatives Research have been produced are such (for example because of reporting or remuneration structures or the physical location of the author of the material) that it is not appropriate to characterise it as independent investment research as referred to in European MIF directive and that it should be treated as a marketing material even if it contains a research recommendation (« recommandation d’investissement à caractère promotionnel »). However, it must be made clear that all publications issued by SG will be clear, fair, and not misleading. Analyst Certification: Each author of this research report hereby certifies that (i) the views expressed in the research report accurately reflect his or her personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers and (ii) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be related, directly or indirectly, to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. Notice to French Investors: This publication is issued in France by or through Société Générale ("SG") which is authorised by the CECEI and regulated by the AMF (Autorité des Marchés Financiers). Notice to UK investors: This publication is issued in the United Kingdom by or through Société Générale ("SG") London Branch which is regulated by the Financial Services Authority ("FSA") for the conduct of its UK business. Notice To US Investors: This report is intended only for major US institutional investors pursuant to SEC Rule 15a-6. Any US person wishing to discuss this report or effect transactions in any security discussed herein should do so with or through SG Americas Securities, LLC (“SGAS”) 1221 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10020. (212)-278-6000. THIS RESEARCH REPORT IS PRODUCED BY SOCIETE GENERALE AND NOT SGAS. Notice to Japanese Investors: This report is distributed in Japan by Société Générale Securities (North Pacific) Ltd., Tokyo Branch, which is regulated by the Financial Services Agency of Japan. The products mentioned in this report may not be eligible for sale in Japan and they may not be suitable for all types of investors. Notice to Australian Investors: Société Générale Australia Branch (ABN 71 092 516 286) (SG) takes responsibility for publishing this document. SG holds an AFSL no. 236651 issued under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) ("Act"). The information contained in this newsletter is only directed to recipients who are wholesale clients as defined under the Act. IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES: Please refer to our website: http:www.sgresearch.socgen.com http://www.sgcib.com. Copyright: The Société Générale Group 2009. All rights reserved.
  • 3. JGB Background Information Ownership of JGB Market Japan’s Net Worth The JPY Fixed income market is very domestic. We need to know about JGBs Source: BoJ and SG Fixed Income Research
  • 4. JGB Issuance/Absorption Dynamics Japan’s Net Issuance and Seasonality Even as headlines focus on increasing JGB issuance, non-market support and seasonality are critical Source: BoJ, MoF and SG Fixed Income Research
  • 5. Main Participants in the JGB Market Banks, Lifers, GPF, BoJ and Foreigners
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11. Overview of Market Dynamics Dynamics and Case Studies
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19.
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 23. Basis You Need To Know: JPY 3mx6m Libor Basis
  • 24. Your partner in… Euro Capital Markets Derivatives Structured Finance