Presentation to the Budget Conference Committee

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Presentation by Doug Elmendorf, Director, to the budget conference committee led by Chairman Paul Ryan of the House Budget Committee and Chairman Patty Murray of the Senate Budget Committee

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Presentation to the Budget Conference Committee

  1. 1. Congressional Budget Office Presentation to the Budget Conference Committee Douglas W. Elmendorf Director November 13, 2013 Note: Data from 1929 onward reflect recent revisions by the Bureau of Economic Analysis to estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) in past years and CBO’s extrapolation of those revisions to projected future GDP. Except where noted, budget figures for 2013 reflect CBO’s May 2013 baseline projection.
  2. 2. Unemployment Rate Percent CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE
  3. 3. Share of Population Age 16 and Older That Is Employed Percent CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE
  4. 4. Short-Term and Long-Term Unemployment Rates Percent The long-term unemployment rate refers to workers who have been unemployed for at least 27 weeks; the short-term unemployment rate refers to all other unemployed workers. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE
  5. 5. Federal Budget Deficits or Surpluses Percentage of GDP 4 Surpluses Actual 4 Baseline Projection 0 0 -4 -4 Deficits -8 -8 -12 -12 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 The deficit figure for 2013 comes from the Final Monthly Treasury Statement released on October 30, 2013. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 2018 2023
  6. 6. Federal Debt Held by the Public Under CBO’s Extended Baseline Percentage of GDP 120 Actual World War II Projected 80 Great Depression 40 0 1790 World War I Civil War 1805 1820 1835 1850 1865 1880 1895 1910 1925 1940 1955 1970 CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 1985 2000 2015 2030
  7. 7. Federal Spending and Revenues Under CBO’s Baseline, Compared with Past Averages Percentage of GDP CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE
  8. 8. Categories of Noninterest Spending Apart from Social Security, Medicare, and Defense Percentage of GDP Means-tested health care programs include Medicaid, the Children's Health Insurance Program, and subsidies offered through health insurance exchanges and related spending. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE

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