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Redistricting, 2011<br />Expectations and Results<br />
What is Redistricting<br />definition	<br />Redistricting is the process of drawing district lines.  It is done every 10 y...
What is Redistricting?<br />the Gerrymander<br />The term Gerrymander came <br />from a cartoon depicting a <br />rather s...
What is Redistricting<br />the Gerrymander<br />There are still legislative lines<br />that look a lot like<br />the origi...
What is Redistricting<br />Why should anyone care?<br />
What is Redistricting<br />Why should anyone care?<br />
What is Redistricting<br />Why should anyone care?<br />
What is Redistricting<br />Why should anyone care?<br />In redistricting it isn’t always about Partisanship.  It is often ...
What is Redistricting<br />Federal VRA and State CVRA	<br />VRA is the Federal Voting Rights Act which oversees all electi...
What is Redistricting<br />Section 2 and Section 5	<br />Section 2 of Federal Voting Rights Act protects majority-minority...
Proposition 11 / 20 Principles<br />Public voted for a new system in California<br />The California redistricting experime...
Create districts that made sense (circles and squares, not the ribbon of shame)
  Protect cities and counties from being divided
Make elections competitive again
  Help reduce the dysfunction in Sacramento / DC
Take Politics out of the Process</li></li></ul><li>Pre-Redraw Discussions<br />The Commission’s Great Unknown<br />Asian D...
Pre-Redraw Discussions<br />The Commission’s Great Unknown<br />Asian Districts?  There were no Section 2 Asian seats in C...
Pre-Redraw Discussions<br />The Commission’s Great Unknown<br />Asian Districts?  There were no Section 2 Asian seats in C...
Traditional Redistricting Principles<br />Used by our Commission<br />The commission must follow many of these criteria, b...
 Contiguous – districts should not hop/jump
Follow city/county/local government lines
 Maintain communities of interest
  Keep districts compact – appearance/function
Preserving voter choices (incumbents)</li></li></ul><li>Traditional Redistricting Principles<br />Used by our Commission<b...
Contiguous – districts should not hop/jump
Follow city/county/local government lines
 Maintain communities of interest
  Keep districts compact – appearance/function
Preserving voter choices (incumbents)</li></li></ul><li>Traditional Redistricting Principles<br />From decades of case law...
Contiguous – districts should not hop/jump
  Follow city/county/local government lines
  Maintain communities of interest
  Keep districts compact – appearance/function
 Preserving voter choices (incumbents)</li></li></ul><li>Current Districts<br />Equal Size Districts<br />
Traditional Redistricting Principles<br />Used by our Commission<br />The commission must follow many of these criteria, b...
 Contiguous – districts should not hop/jump
Follow city/county/local government lines
 Maintain communities of interest
  Keep districts compact – appearance/function
Preserving voter choices (incumbents)</li></li></ul><li>Traditional Redistricting Principles<br />Used by our Commission<b...
 Contiguous – districts should not hop/jump
Follow city/county/local government lines
Maintain communities of interest
  Keep districts compact – appearance/function
Preserving voter choices (incumbents)</li></li></ul><li>Communities of Interest<br />Keeping similar voters together<br />...
  Socioeconomic
 Language
  Religious</li></li></ul><li>Communities of Interest<br />Keeping similar voters together<br />Generally thought of as:<b...
  Socioeconomic
 Language
  Religious</li></ul>Can also include:<br /><ul><li>  Issues
  Voting patterns
  Workforce</li></li></ul><li>Looking at State Changes<br />New Commission<br />Cook Political Report<br />Congressional P...
Looking at State Changes<br />New Commission<br />Cook Political Report<br />Congressional Plan<br />The biggest macro cha...
Looking at State Changes<br />New Commission<br />An area like this looked like a mess – and it seemed anyone could fix th...
Looking at State Changes<br />New Commission<br />But the novices learned that the VRA locked in a number of these seeming...
Looking at State Changes<br />New Commission<br />A big question surrounded how Asians would fare under the new VRA rules,...
Looking at State Changes<br />New Commission<br />A big question surrounded how Asians would be able to have preferred sea...
Traditional Redistricting Principles<br />Used by our Commission<br />The commission must follow many of these criteria, b...
 Contiguous – districts should not hop/jump
Follow city/county/local government lines
Maintain communities of interest
Keep districts compact – appearance/function
Preserving voter choices (incumbents)</li></li></ul><li>Traditional Redistricting Principles<br />Borne out of VRA and sev...
Traditional Redistricting Principles<br />Used by our Commission<br />The commission must follow many of these criteria, b...
 Contiguous – districts should not hop/jump
Follow city/county/local government lines
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Transcript of " Redistricting 2011: Expectations and Results Presentation"

  1. 1. Redistricting, 2011<br />Expectations and Results<br />
  2. 2. What is Redistricting<br />definition <br />Redistricting is the process of drawing district lines. It is done every 10 years after the release of the US Census. The well known examples are Congress and the legislature.<br />Cities, Counties, School Boards, Water Boards… All elected bodies do redistricting.<br />Reapportionment is the process of assigning congressional seats to states.<br />
  3. 3. What is Redistricting?<br />the Gerrymander<br />The term Gerrymander came <br />from a cartoon depicting a <br />rather serpentine looking district created by Governor Elbrige Gerry in Massachusetts.<br />
  4. 4. What is Redistricting<br />the Gerrymander<br />There are still legislative lines<br />that look a lot like<br />the original Gerrymander!<br />Kevin DeLeon’s SD 22<br />
  5. 5. What is Redistricting<br />Why should anyone care?<br />
  6. 6. What is Redistricting<br />Why should anyone care?<br />
  7. 7. What is Redistricting<br />Why should anyone care?<br />
  8. 8. What is Redistricting<br />Why should anyone care?<br />In redistricting it isn’t always about Partisanship. It is often rural v. urban; different ethnicities, or other factors where winners and losers are found.<br />
  9. 9. What is Redistricting<br />Federal VRA and State CVRA <br />VRA is the Federal Voting Rights Act which oversees all election systems, including redistricting. Operative sections in redistricting are Section 2 and Section 5.<br />CVRA is the California Voting Rights Act– it pushes most at-large systems into districted elections based on an analysis of populations and voting patterns.<br />
  10. 10. What is Redistricting<br />Section 2 and Section 5 <br />Section 2 of Federal Voting Rights Act protects majority-minority seats. As a result of recent cases, this must be a single majority with history of polarized voting<br />Section 5 looks specifically at counties and states with a history of unfair election practices. In California, Yuba, Monterey, Merced and Kings counties are under this section.<br />
  11. 11. Proposition 11 / 20 Principles<br />Public voted for a new system in California<br />The California redistricting experiment, if you believed the commercials, was supposed to achieve the following.<br /><ul><li> Take the “power of the pen” away from incumbents
  12. 12. Create districts that made sense (circles and squares, not the ribbon of shame)
  13. 13. Protect cities and counties from being divided
  14. 14. Make elections competitive again
  15. 15. Help reduce the dysfunction in Sacramento / DC
  16. 16. Take Politics out of the Process</li></li></ul><li>Pre-Redraw Discussions<br />The Commission’s Great Unknown<br />Asian Districts? There were no Section 2 Asian seats in California. But could some be created?<br />Asian CVAP Asian<br />AD 49 (Eng) 39% 47%<br />AD 12 (Ma) 43% 41%<br />AD 20 (Weickowski)36% 38%<br />AD 22 (Fong)33% 31%<br />AD 23 (Campos) 26% 32%<br />AD 68 (Mansoor) 25% 30%<br />
  17. 17. Pre-Redraw Discussions<br />The Commission’s Great Unknown<br />Asian Districts? There were no Section 2 Asian seats in California. But could some be created?<br />Asian CVAP Asian<br />SD 8 (Yee) 32% 34%<br />SD 10 (Corbett)30% 33%<br />SD 13 (Alquist) 26% 29%<br />SD 24 (Hernandez)18% 23%<br />
  18. 18. Pre-Redraw Discussions<br />The Commission’s Great Unknown<br />Asian Districts? There were no Section 2 Asian seats in California. But could some be created?<br />Asian CVAP Asian<br />CD 8 (Pelosi)29% 27%<br />CD 12 (Speier)29% 31%<br />CD 13 (Stark) 28% 31%<br />CD 29 (Schiff)24% 24%<br />CD 47 (Sanchez)14% 22%<br />
  19. 19. Traditional Redistricting Principles<br />Used by our Commission<br />The commission must follow many of these criteria, but cannot consider incumbents or partisan advantage.<br /><ul><li> Relatively equal size - people, not citizens
  20. 20. Contiguous – districts should not hop/jump
  21. 21. Follow city/county/local government lines
  22. 22. Maintain communities of interest
  23. 23. Keep districts compact – appearance/function
  24. 24. Preserving voter choices (incumbents)</li></li></ul><li>Traditional Redistricting Principles<br />Used by our Commission<br />The commission must follow many of these criteria, but cannot consider incumbents or partisan advantage.<br /><ul><li>Relatively equal size - people, not citizens
  25. 25. Contiguous – districts should not hop/jump
  26. 26. Follow city/county/local government lines
  27. 27. Maintain communities of interest
  28. 28. Keep districts compact – appearance/function
  29. 29. Preserving voter choices (incumbents)</li></li></ul><li>Traditional Redistricting Principles<br />From decades of case law<br />There are a number of criteria that have been used nationally and upheld by courts.<br /><ul><li> Relatively equal size - people, not citizens
  30. 30. Contiguous – districts should not hop/jump
  31. 31. Follow city/county/local government lines
  32. 32. Maintain communities of interest
  33. 33. Keep districts compact – appearance/function
  34. 34. Preserving voter choices (incumbents)</li></li></ul><li>Current Districts<br />Equal Size Districts<br />
  35. 35. Traditional Redistricting Principles<br />Used by our Commission<br />The commission must follow many of these criteria, but cannot consider incumbents or partisan advantage.<br /><ul><li> Relatively equal size - people, not citizens
  36. 36. Contiguous – districts should not hop/jump
  37. 37. Follow city/county/local government lines
  38. 38. Maintain communities of interest
  39. 39. Keep districts compact – appearance/function
  40. 40. Preserving voter choices (incumbents)</li></li></ul><li>Traditional Redistricting Principles<br />Used by our Commission<br />The commission must follow many of these criteria, but cannot consider incumbents or partisan advantage.<br /><ul><li> Relatively equal size - people, not citizens
  41. 41. Contiguous – districts should not hop/jump
  42. 42. Follow city/county/local government lines
  43. 43. Maintain communities of interest
  44. 44. Keep districts compact – appearance/function
  45. 45. Preserving voter choices (incumbents)</li></li></ul><li>Communities of Interest<br />Keeping similar voters together<br />Generally thought of as:<br /><ul><li> Race / Ethnicity
  46. 46. Socioeconomic
  47. 47. Language
  48. 48. Religious</li></li></ul><li>Communities of Interest<br />Keeping similar voters together<br />Generally thought of as:<br /><ul><li> Race / Ethnicity
  49. 49. Socioeconomic
  50. 50. Language
  51. 51. Religious</li></ul>Can also include:<br /><ul><li> Issues
  52. 52. Voting patterns
  53. 53. Workforce</li></li></ul><li>Looking at State Changes<br />New Commission<br />Cook Political Report<br />Congressional Plan<br />Organizations and individuals are drafting plans, and finding that it isn’t as easy as they thought!<br />
  54. 54. Looking at State Changes<br />New Commission<br />Cook Political Report<br />Congressional Plan<br />The biggest macro challenge is to balance Commission rules, the Voting Rights Act and community input.<br />
  55. 55. Looking at State Changes<br />New Commission<br />An area like this looked like a mess – and it seemed anyone could fix these districts.<br />
  56. 56. Looking at State Changes<br />New Commission<br />But the novices learned that the VRA locked in a number of these seemingly gerrymandered seats <br />
  57. 57. Looking at State Changes<br />New Commission<br />A big question surrounded how Asians would fare under the new VRA rules, particularly the need to create Majority Minority districts as one-race rather than coalitions.<br />
  58. 58. Looking at State Changes<br />New Commission<br />A big question surrounded how Asians would be able to have preferred seats drawn when when an overlapping Latino VRA claim could also be established.<br />
  59. 59. Traditional Redistricting Principles<br />Used by our Commission<br />The commission must follow many of these criteria, but cannot consider incumbents or partisan advantage.<br /><ul><li> Relatively equal size - people, not citizens
  60. 60. Contiguous – districts should not hop/jump
  61. 61. Follow city/county/local government lines
  62. 62. Maintain communities of interest
  63. 63. Keep districts compact – appearance/function
  64. 64. Preserving voter choices (incumbents)</li></li></ul><li>Traditional Redistricting Principles<br />Borne out of VRA and several federal lawsuits<br /> Compact Not Compact<br />
  65. 65. Traditional Redistricting Principles<br />Used by our Commission<br />The commission must follow many of these criteria, but cannot consider incumbents or partisan advantage.<br /><ul><li> Relatively equal size - people, not citizens
  66. 66. Contiguous – districts should not hop/jump
  67. 67. Follow city/county/local government lines
  68. 68. Maintain communities of interest
  69. 69. Keep districts compact – appearance/function
  70. 70. Preserving voter choices (incumbents)</li></li></ul><li>Digging into VRA<br />How easy create more Asian seats?<br />Under Voting Rights Act a Majority – Minority Asian district must be created where:<br /><ul><li>There is racially polarized voting.
  71. 71. The ethnic group is large and compact enough to make 50% of a district.
  72. 72. The lines can be drawn in accordance with traditional redistricting rules. Race not ONLY criteria.</li></li></ul><li>Digging into VRA<br />How easy create more Asian seats?<br />Does Racially Polarized Voting exist in the Asian Community? There is not a simple answer.<br /><ul><li>RPV exists groups have divergent voting patterns that can be proven statistically based on court-approved methods.
  73. 73. This differs based on the types of candidates in a race, and the region of the state.</li></li></ul><li>
  74. 74.
  75. 75. Where Asian RPV is clear<br />
  76. 76.
  77. 77.
  78. 78. Where Asian RPV is clear<br />
  79. 79. Where Asian RPV is clear<br />
  80. 80. Where Asian RPV is clear<br />
  81. 81. Where Asian RPV is not clear<br />Does this evidence in LA mean that there is Racially Polarized Voting in California for and against Asians?<br /><ul><li>Can be muddied by Party Affiliation – More Latinos in the SGV voted for Chaing than Asians
  82. 82. Differs by region of the state.</li></li></ul><li> Asian Density<br />
  83. 83. Yee for Assembly 2010 Primary<br />
  84. 84. Asian Density<br />
  85. 85. Hayashi for Judge<br />
  86. 86. Asian Density<br />
  87. 87. Where Asian RPV is less clear<br />2006 Democratic Primary Controller – Dunn v. Chiang<br />The 2006 Dem Primary pitted trial lawyer Joe Dunn from Orange County versus prosecutor John Chiang from Los Angeles. White voters favored Chiang by 16%, with Asian voters favoring Chiang by the slightly larger margin of 24%<br />
  88. 88. Digging into VRA<br />How easy create more Asian seats?<br />Under Voting Rights Act a Majority – Minority Asian district must be created where:<br /><ul><li>There is racially polarized voting.
  89. 89. The ethnic group is large and compact enough to make 50% of a district.
  90. 90. The lines can be drawn in accordance with traditional redistricting rules. Race not ONLY criteria.</li></li></ul><li>Digging into VRA<br />How easy create more Asian seats?<br />Under Voting Rights Act a Majority – Minority Asian district must be created where:<br /><ul><li>There is racially polarized voting.
  91. 91. The ethnic group is large and compact enough to make 50% of a district.
  92. 92. The lines can be drawn in accordance with traditional redistricting rules. Race not ONLY criteria.</li></li></ul><li>Proposition 11 / 20 Outcomes<br />What we know for now…<br />The impact of Prop 11 and 20 are far and wide, independent of whether the goals of the TV Commercials was met.<br /><ul><li> Most anti-incumbent redistricting in history.
  93. 93. Creates one-time competition even if without long-term competitiveness
  94. 94. Changed public and lawmaker expectations– both down to local government and nationally.</li></li></ul><li>Proposition 11 / 20 Outcomes<br />Partisan and Ethnic Breakdown<br />
  95. 95. Proposition 11 / 20 Outcomes<br />Are things better today than Four Months Ago?<br />Asian Districts? There were no Section 2 Asian seats in California. But could some be created?<br />Asian CVAP Asian<br />SD 8 32% 34%<br />SD 10 30% 33%<br />SD 13 26% 29%<br />SD 24 18% 23%<br />
  96. 96. Proposition 11 / 20 Outcomes<br />Are things better today than Four Months Ago?<br />Asian Districts? There were no Section 2 Asian seats in California. But could some be created?<br />Asian CVAP Asian<br />SD 10 40% 33%<br />SD 22 32% 31%<br />SD 11 36% 31%<br />SD 15 30% 25%<br />
  97. 97. Proposition 11 / 20 Outcomes<br />Are things better today than Four Months Ago?<br />Asian Districts? There were no Section 2 Asian seats in California. But could some be created?<br />Asian CVAP Asian<br />CD 8 29% 27%<br />CD 12 29% 31%<br />CD 13 28% 31%<br />CD 29 24% 24%<br />CD 47 14% 22%<br />
  98. 98. Proposition 11 / 20 Outcomes<br />Are things better today than Four Months Ago?<br />Asian Districts? There were no Section 2 Asian seats in California. But could some be created?<br />Asian CVAP Asian<br />CD 17 49% 38%<br />CD 27 37% 31%<br />CD 14 31% 28%<br />CD 12 31% 27%<br />CD 19 26%25%<br />
  99. 99. Proposition 11 / 20 Outcomes<br />Are things better today than Four Months Ago?<br />Asian Districts? There were no Section 2 Asian seats in California. But could some be created?<br />Asian CVAP Asian<br />AD 49 39% 47%<br />AD 12 43% 41%<br />AD 20 36% 38%<br />AD 22 33% 31%<br />AD 23 26% 32%<br />AD 68 25% 30%<br />
  100. 100. Proposition 11 / 20 Outcomes<br />Are things better today than Four Months Ago?<br />Asian Districts? There were no Section 2 Asian seats in California. But could some be created?<br />Asian CVAP Asian<br />AD 49 53% 50%<br />AD 19 44% 39%<br />AD 25 49% 39%<br />AD 27 33% 34%<br />AD 20 31% 28%<br />AD 72 32% 28%<br />
  101. 101. Proposition 11 / 20 Outcomes<br />Are things better today than Four Months Ago?<br />Asian Districts? There were no Section 2 Asian seats in California. But could some be created?<br />Asian CVAP Asian<br />AD 49 53%50%<br />AD 19 44% 39%<br />AD 25 49% 39%<br />AD 27 33% 34%<br />AD 20 31% 28%<br />AD 72 32% 28%<br />
  102. 102. Proposition 11 / 20 Outcomes<br />Are things better today than Four Months Ago?<br />These overarching numbers provide a comparison point, but what does it mean for elected API officials and campaigns in the next decade?<br />
  103. 103. Proposition 11 / 20 Outcomes<br />Are things better today than Four Months Ago?<br />These overarching numbers provide a comparison point, but what does it mean for elected API officials and campaigns in the next decade?<br />There are two streams:<br /><ul><li>Better API seats provide numeric advantages.
  104. 104. Greater API opportunity comes in non-Asian districts too.</li></li></ul><li>Proposition 11 / 20 Outcomes<br />Handouts provide a very detailed look<br />
  105. 105. Proposition 11 / 20 Outcomes<br />Handouts provide a very detailed look<br />
  106. 106. Proposition 11 / 20 Outcomes<br />Handouts provide a very detailed look<br />
  107. 107. Proposition 11 / 20 Outcomes<br />Handouts provide a very detailed look<br />
  108. 108. Will these lines stick?<br />Referendums and lawsuits appear moving<br />A court battle is the eventual end to any high-stakes redistricting. <br /><ul><li>Referendum appears to be moving against Senate lines while congressional effort is dead.
  109. 109. Lawsuits moving on both Senate and Congressional.
  110. 110. Congressional lawsuit is the most interesting.</li></li></ul><li>
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