Redistricting 2011: Expectations and Results Presentation

Redistricting, 2011
Expectations and Results

What is Redistricting
definition
Redistricting is the process of drawing district lines. It is done every 10 years after the release of the US Census. The well known examples are Congress and the legislature.
Cities, Counties, School Boards, Water Boards… All elected bodies do redistricting.
Reapportionment is the process of assigning congressional seats to states.

What is Redistricting?
the Gerrymander
The term Gerrymander came
from a cartoon depicting a
rather serpentine looking district created by Governor Elbrige Gerry in Massachusetts.

the Gerrymander
There are still legislative lines
that look a lot like
the original Gerrymander!
Kevin DeLeon’s SD 22

Why should anyone care?

Why should anyone care?
In redistricting it isn’t always about Partisanship. It is often rural v. urban; different ethnicities, or other factors where winners and losers are found.

Federal VRA and State CVRA
VRA is the Federal Voting Rights Act which oversees all election systems, including redistricting. Operative sections in redistricting are Section 2 and Section 5.
CVRA is the California Voting Rights Act– it pushes most at-large systems into districted elections based on an analysis of populations and voting patterns.

Section 2 and Section 5
Section 2 of Federal Voting Rights Act protects majority-minority seats. As a result of recent cases, this must be a single majority with history of polarized voting
Section 5 looks specifically at counties and states with a history of unfair election practices. In California, Yuba, Monterey, Merced and Kings counties are under this section.

Proposition 11 / 20 Principles
Public voted for a new system in California
The California redistricting experiment, if you believed the commercials, was supposed to achieve the following.
Take the “power of the pen” away from incumbents
Create districts that made sense (circles and squares, not the ribbon of shame)
Protect cities and counties from being divided
Make elections competitive again
Help reduce the dysfunction in Sacramento / DC
Take Politics out of the Process

Pre-Redraw Discussions
The Commission’s Great Unknown
Asian Districts? There were no Section 2 Asian seats in California. But could some be created?
Asian CVAP Asian
AD 49 (Eng) 39% 47%
AD 12 (Ma) 43% 41%
AD 20 (Weickowski)36% 38%
AD 22 (Fong)33% 31%
AD 23 (Campos) 26% 32%
AD 68 (Mansoor) 25% 30%

Asian CVAP Asian
SD 8 (Yee) 32% 34%
SD 10 (Corbett)30% 33%
SD 13 (Alquist) 26% 29%
SD 24 (Hernandez)18% 23%

Asian CVAP Asian
CD 8 (Pelosi)29% 27%
CD 12 (Speier)29% 31%
CD 13 (Stark) 28% 31%
CD 29 (Schiff)24% 24%
CD 47 (Sanchez)14% 22%

Traditional Redistricting Principles
Used by our Commission
The commission must follow many of these criteria, but cannot consider incumbents or partisan advantage.
Relatively equal size - people, not citizens
Contiguous – districts should not hop/jump
Follow city/county/local government lines
Maintain communities of interest
Keep districts compact – appearance/function
Preserving voter choices (incumbents)

From decades of case law
There are a number of criteria that have been used nationally and upheld by courts.

Current Districts
Equal Size Districts

Communities of Interest
Keeping similar voters together
Generally thought of as:
Race / Ethnicity
Socioeconomic
Language
Religious

Communities of Interest
Keeping similar voters together
Generally thought of as:
Race / Ethnicity
Socioeconomic
Language
Religious
Can also include:
Issues
Voting patterns
Workforce

Looking at State Changes
New Commission
Cook Political Report
Congressional Plan
Organizations and individuals are drafting plans, and finding that it isn’t as easy as they thought!

New Commission
Cook Political Report
Congressional Plan
The biggest macro challenge is to balance Commission rules, the Voting Rights Act and community input.

New Commission
An area like this looked like a mess – and it seemed anyone could fix these districts.

New Commission
But the novices learned that the VRA locked in a number of these seemingly gerrymandered seats

New Commission
A big question surrounded how Asians would fare under the new VRA rules, particularly the need to create Majority Minority districts as one-race rather than coalitions.

New Commission
A big question surrounded how Asians would be able to have preferred seats drawn when when an overlapping Latino VRA claim could also be established.

Borne out of VRA and several federal lawsuits
Compact Not Compact

Digging into VRA
How easy create more Asian seats?
Under Voting Rights Act a Majority – Minority Asian district must be created where:
There is racially polarized voting.
The ethnic group is large and compact enough to make 50% of a district.
The lines can be drawn in accordance with traditional redistricting rules. Race not ONLY criteria.

Digging into VRA
Does Racially Polarized Voting exist in the Asian Community? There is not a simple answer.
RPV exists groups have divergent voting patterns that can be proven statistically based on court-approved methods.
This differs based on the types of candidates in a race, and the region of the state.

Where Asian RPV is clear

Where Asian RPV is not clear
Does this evidence in LA mean that there is Racially Polarized Voting in California for and against Asians?
Can be muddied by Party Affiliation – More Latinos in the SGV voted for Chaing than Asians
Differs by region of the state.

Asian Density

Yee for Assembly 2010 Primary

Asian Density

Hayashi for Judge

Asian Density

Where Asian RPV is less clear
2006 Democratic Primary Controller – Dunn v. Chiang
The 2006 Dem Primary pitted trial lawyer Joe Dunn from Orange County versus prosecutor John Chiang from Los Angeles. White voters favored Chiang by 16%, with Asian voters favoring Chiang by the slightly larger margin of 24%

Digging into VRA
Under Voting Rights Act a Majority – Minority Asian district must be created where:
There is racially polarized voting.
The ethnic group is large and compact enough to make 50% of a district.
The lines can be drawn in accordance with traditional redistricting rules. Race not ONLY criteria.

Proposition 11 / 20 Outcomes
What we know for now…
The impact of Prop 11 and 20 are far and wide, independent of whether the goals of the TV Commercials was met.
Most anti-incumbent redistricting in history.
Creates one-time competition even if without long-term competitiveness
Changed public and lawmaker expectations– both down to local government and nationally.

Partisan and Ethnic Breakdown

Are things better today than Four Months Ago?
Asian CVAP Asian
SD 8 32% 34%
SD 10 30% 33%
SD 13 26% 29%
SD 24 18% 23%

Asian CVAP Asian
SD 10 40% 33%
SD 22 32% 31%
SD 11 36% 31%
SD 15 30% 25%

Asian CVAP Asian
CD 8 29% 27%
CD 12 29% 31%
CD 13 28% 31%
CD 29 24% 24%
CD 47 14% 22%

Asian CVAP Asian
CD 17 49% 38%
CD 27 37% 31%
CD 14 31% 28%
CD 12 31% 27%
CD 19 26%25%

Asian CVAP Asian
AD 49 39% 47%
AD 12 43% 41%
AD 20 36% 38%
AD 22 33% 31%
AD 23 26% 32%
AD 68 25% 30%

Asian CVAP Asian
AD 49 53% 50%
AD 19 44% 39%
AD 25 49% 39%
AD 27 33% 34%
AD 20 31% 28%
AD 72 32% 28%

Asian CVAP Asian
AD 49 53%50%
AD 19 44% 39%
AD 25 49% 39%
AD 27 33% 34%
AD 20 31% 28%
AD 72 32% 28%

These overarching numbers provide a comparison point, but what does it mean for elected API officials and campaigns in the next decade?

These overarching numbers provide a comparison point, but what does it mean for elected API officials and campaigns in the next decade?
There are two streams:
Better API seats provide numeric advantages.
Greater API opportunity comes in non-Asian districts too.

Handouts provide a very detailed look

Will these lines stick?
Referendums and lawsuits appear moving
A court battle is the eventual end to any high-stakes redistricting.
Referendum appears to be moving against Senate lines while congressional effort is dead.
Lawsuits moving on both Senate and Congressional.
Congressional lawsuit is the most interesting.

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Redistricting 2011: Expectations and Results Presentation

by Cause Empowerment on Oct 18, 2011

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Redistricting 2011: Expectations and Results Presentation Presentation Transcript