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 Redistricting 2011: Expectations and Results Presentation
 

Redistricting 2011: Expectations and Results Presentation

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     Redistricting 2011: Expectations and Results Presentation Redistricting 2011: Expectations and Results Presentation Presentation Transcript

    • Redistricting, 2011
      Expectations and Results
    • What is Redistricting
      definition
      Redistricting is the process of drawing district lines. It is done every 10 years after the release of the US Census. The well known examples are Congress and the legislature.
      Cities, Counties, School Boards, Water Boards… All elected bodies do redistricting.
      Reapportionment is the process of assigning congressional seats to states.
    • What is Redistricting?
      the Gerrymander
      The term Gerrymander came
      from a cartoon depicting a
      rather serpentine looking district created by Governor Elbrige Gerry in Massachusetts.
    • What is Redistricting
      the Gerrymander
      There are still legislative lines
      that look a lot like
      the original Gerrymander!
      Kevin DeLeon’s SD 22
    • What is Redistricting
      Why should anyone care?
    • What is Redistricting
      Why should anyone care?
    • What is Redistricting
      Why should anyone care?
    • What is Redistricting
      Why should anyone care?
      In redistricting it isn’t always about Partisanship. It is often rural v. urban; different ethnicities, or other factors where winners and losers are found.
    • What is Redistricting
      Federal VRA and State CVRA
      VRA is the Federal Voting Rights Act which oversees all election systems, including redistricting. Operative sections in redistricting are Section 2 and Section 5.
      CVRA is the California Voting Rights Act– it pushes most at-large systems into districted elections based on an analysis of populations and voting patterns.
    • What is Redistricting
      Section 2 and Section 5
      Section 2 of Federal Voting Rights Act protects majority-minority seats. As a result of recent cases, this must be a single majority with history of polarized voting
      Section 5 looks specifically at counties and states with a history of unfair election practices. In California, Yuba, Monterey, Merced and Kings counties are under this section.
    • Proposition 11 / 20 Principles
      Public voted for a new system in California
      The California redistricting experiment, if you believed the commercials, was supposed to achieve the following.
      • Take the “power of the pen” away from incumbents
      • Create districts that made sense (circles and squares, not the ribbon of shame)
      • Protect cities and counties from being divided
      • Make elections competitive again
      • Help reduce the dysfunction in Sacramento / DC
      • Take Politics out of the Process
    • Pre-Redraw Discussions
      The Commission’s Great Unknown
      Asian Districts? There were no Section 2 Asian seats in California. But could some be created?
      Asian CVAP Asian
      AD 49 (Eng) 39% 47%
      AD 12 (Ma) 43% 41%
      AD 20 (Weickowski)36% 38%
      AD 22 (Fong)33% 31%
      AD 23 (Campos) 26% 32%
      AD 68 (Mansoor) 25% 30%
    • Pre-Redraw Discussions
      The Commission’s Great Unknown
      Asian Districts? There were no Section 2 Asian seats in California. But could some be created?
      Asian CVAP Asian
      SD 8 (Yee) 32% 34%
      SD 10 (Corbett)30% 33%
      SD 13 (Alquist) 26% 29%
      SD 24 (Hernandez)18% 23%
    • Pre-Redraw Discussions
      The Commission’s Great Unknown
      Asian Districts? There were no Section 2 Asian seats in California. But could some be created?
      Asian CVAP Asian
      CD 8 (Pelosi)29% 27%
      CD 12 (Speier)29% 31%
      CD 13 (Stark) 28% 31%
      CD 29 (Schiff)24% 24%
      CD 47 (Sanchez)14% 22%
    • Traditional Redistricting Principles
      Used by our Commission
      The commission must follow many of these criteria, but cannot consider incumbents or partisan advantage.
      • Relatively equal size - people, not citizens
      • Contiguous – districts should not hop/jump
      • Follow city/county/local government lines
      • Maintain communities of interest
      • Keep districts compact – appearance/function
      • Preserving voter choices (incumbents)
    • Traditional Redistricting Principles
      Used by our Commission
      The commission must follow many of these criteria, but cannot consider incumbents or partisan advantage.
      • Relatively equal size - people, not citizens
      • Contiguous – districts should not hop/jump
      • Follow city/county/local government lines
      • Maintain communities of interest
      • Keep districts compact – appearance/function
      • Preserving voter choices (incumbents)
    • Traditional Redistricting Principles
      From decades of case law
      There are a number of criteria that have been used nationally and upheld by courts.
      • Relatively equal size - people, not citizens
      • Contiguous – districts should not hop/jump
      • Follow city/county/local government lines
      • Maintain communities of interest
      • Keep districts compact – appearance/function
      • Preserving voter choices (incumbents)
    • Current Districts
      Equal Size Districts
    • Traditional Redistricting Principles
      Used by our Commission
      The commission must follow many of these criteria, but cannot consider incumbents or partisan advantage.
      • Relatively equal size - people, not citizens
      • Contiguous – districts should not hop/jump
      • Follow city/county/local government lines
      • Maintain communities of interest
      • Keep districts compact – appearance/function
      • Preserving voter choices (incumbents)
    • Traditional Redistricting Principles
      Used by our Commission
      The commission must follow many of these criteria, but cannot consider incumbents or partisan advantage.
      • Relatively equal size - people, not citizens
      • Contiguous – districts should not hop/jump
      • Follow city/county/local government lines
      • Maintain communities of interest
      • Keep districts compact – appearance/function
      • Preserving voter choices (incumbents)
    • Communities of Interest
      Keeping similar voters together
      Generally thought of as:
      • Race / Ethnicity
      • Socioeconomic
      • Language
      • Religious
    • Communities of Interest
      Keeping similar voters together
      Generally thought of as:
      • Race / Ethnicity
      • Socioeconomic
      • Language
      • Religious
      Can also include:
      • Issues
      • Voting patterns
      • Workforce
    • Looking at State Changes
      New Commission
      Cook Political Report
      Congressional Plan
      Organizations and individuals are drafting plans, and finding that it isn’t as easy as they thought!
    • Looking at State Changes
      New Commission
      Cook Political Report
      Congressional Plan
      The biggest macro challenge is to balance Commission rules, the Voting Rights Act and community input.
    • Looking at State Changes
      New Commission
      An area like this looked like a mess – and it seemed anyone could fix these districts.
    • Looking at State Changes
      New Commission
      But the novices learned that the VRA locked in a number of these seemingly gerrymandered seats
    • Looking at State Changes
      New Commission
      A big question surrounded how Asians would fare under the new VRA rules, particularly the need to create Majority Minority districts as one-race rather than coalitions.
    • Looking at State Changes
      New Commission
      A big question surrounded how Asians would be able to have preferred seats drawn when when an overlapping Latino VRA claim could also be established.
    • Traditional Redistricting Principles
      Used by our Commission
      The commission must follow many of these criteria, but cannot consider incumbents or partisan advantage.
      • Relatively equal size - people, not citizens
      • Contiguous – districts should not hop/jump
      • Follow city/county/local government lines
      • Maintain communities of interest
      • Keep districts compact – appearance/function
      • Preserving voter choices (incumbents)
    • Traditional Redistricting Principles
      Borne out of VRA and several federal lawsuits
      Compact Not Compact
    • Traditional Redistricting Principles
      Used by our Commission
      The commission must follow many of these criteria, but cannot consider incumbents or partisan advantage.
      • Relatively equal size - people, not citizens
      • Contiguous – districts should not hop/jump
      • Follow city/county/local government lines
      • Maintain communities of interest
      • Keep districts compact – appearance/function
      • Preserving voter choices (incumbents)
    • Digging into VRA
      How easy create more Asian seats?
      Under Voting Rights Act a Majority – Minority Asian district must be created where:
      • There is racially polarized voting.
      • The ethnic group is large and compact enough to make 50% of a district.
      • The lines can be drawn in accordance with traditional redistricting rules. Race not ONLY criteria.
    • Digging into VRA
      How easy create more Asian seats?
      Does Racially Polarized Voting exist in the Asian Community? There is not a simple answer.
      • RPV exists groups have divergent voting patterns that can be proven statistically based on court-approved methods.
      • This differs based on the types of candidates in a race, and the region of the state.
    • Where Asian RPV is clear
    • Where Asian RPV is clear
    • Where Asian RPV is clear
    • Where Asian RPV is clear
    • Where Asian RPV is not clear
      Does this evidence in LA mean that there is Racially Polarized Voting in California for and against Asians?
      • Can be muddied by Party Affiliation – More Latinos in the SGV voted for Chaing than Asians
      • Differs by region of the state.
    • Asian Density
    • Yee for Assembly 2010 Primary
    • Asian Density
    • Hayashi for Judge
    • Asian Density
    • Where Asian RPV is less clear
      2006 Democratic Primary Controller – Dunn v. Chiang
      The 2006 Dem Primary pitted trial lawyer Joe Dunn from Orange County versus prosecutor John Chiang from Los Angeles. White voters favored Chiang by 16%, with Asian voters favoring Chiang by the slightly larger margin of 24%
    • Digging into VRA
      How easy create more Asian seats?
      Under Voting Rights Act a Majority – Minority Asian district must be created where:
      • There is racially polarized voting.
      • The ethnic group is large and compact enough to make 50% of a district.
      • The lines can be drawn in accordance with traditional redistricting rules. Race not ONLY criteria.
    • Digging into VRA
      How easy create more Asian seats?
      Under Voting Rights Act a Majority – Minority Asian district must be created where:
      • There is racially polarized voting.
      • The ethnic group is large and compact enough to make 50% of a district.
      • The lines can be drawn in accordance with traditional redistricting rules. Race not ONLY criteria.
    • Proposition 11 / 20 Outcomes
      What we know for now…
      The impact of Prop 11 and 20 are far and wide, independent of whether the goals of the TV Commercials was met.
      • Most anti-incumbent redistricting in history.
      • Creates one-time competition even if without long-term competitiveness
      • Changed public and lawmaker expectations– both down to local government and nationally.
    • Proposition 11 / 20 Outcomes
      Partisan and Ethnic Breakdown
    • Proposition 11 / 20 Outcomes
      Are things better today than Four Months Ago?
      Asian Districts? There were no Section 2 Asian seats in California. But could some be created?
      Asian CVAP Asian
      SD 8 32% 34%
      SD 10 30% 33%
      SD 13 26% 29%
      SD 24 18% 23%
    • Proposition 11 / 20 Outcomes
      Are things better today than Four Months Ago?
      Asian Districts? There were no Section 2 Asian seats in California. But could some be created?
      Asian CVAP Asian
      SD 10 40% 33%
      SD 22 32% 31%
      SD 11 36% 31%
      SD 15 30% 25%
    • Proposition 11 / 20 Outcomes
      Are things better today than Four Months Ago?
      Asian Districts? There were no Section 2 Asian seats in California. But could some be created?
      Asian CVAP Asian
      CD 8 29% 27%
      CD 12 29% 31%
      CD 13 28% 31%
      CD 29 24% 24%
      CD 47 14% 22%
    • Proposition 11 / 20 Outcomes
      Are things better today than Four Months Ago?
      Asian Districts? There were no Section 2 Asian seats in California. But could some be created?
      Asian CVAP Asian
      CD 17 49% 38%
      CD 27 37% 31%
      CD 14 31% 28%
      CD 12 31% 27%
      CD 19 26%25%
    • Proposition 11 / 20 Outcomes
      Are things better today than Four Months Ago?
      Asian Districts? There were no Section 2 Asian seats in California. But could some be created?
      Asian CVAP Asian
      AD 49 39% 47%
      AD 12 43% 41%
      AD 20 36% 38%
      AD 22 33% 31%
      AD 23 26% 32%
      AD 68 25% 30%
    • Proposition 11 / 20 Outcomes
      Are things better today than Four Months Ago?
      Asian Districts? There were no Section 2 Asian seats in California. But could some be created?
      Asian CVAP Asian
      AD 49 53% 50%
      AD 19 44% 39%
      AD 25 49% 39%
      AD 27 33% 34%
      AD 20 31% 28%
      AD 72 32% 28%
    • Proposition 11 / 20 Outcomes
      Are things better today than Four Months Ago?
      Asian Districts? There were no Section 2 Asian seats in California. But could some be created?
      Asian CVAP Asian
      AD 49 53%50%
      AD 19 44% 39%
      AD 25 49% 39%
      AD 27 33% 34%
      AD 20 31% 28%
      AD 72 32% 28%
    • Proposition 11 / 20 Outcomes
      Are things better today than Four Months Ago?
      These overarching numbers provide a comparison point, but what does it mean for elected API officials and campaigns in the next decade?
    • Proposition 11 / 20 Outcomes
      Are things better today than Four Months Ago?
      These overarching numbers provide a comparison point, but what does it mean for elected API officials and campaigns in the next decade?
      There are two streams:
      • Better API seats provide numeric advantages.
      • Greater API opportunity comes in non-Asian districts too.
    • Proposition 11 / 20 Outcomes
      Handouts provide a very detailed look
    • Proposition 11 / 20 Outcomes
      Handouts provide a very detailed look
    • Proposition 11 / 20 Outcomes
      Handouts provide a very detailed look
    • Proposition 11 / 20 Outcomes
      Handouts provide a very detailed look
    • Will these lines stick?
      Referendums and lawsuits appear moving
      A court battle is the eventual end to any high-stakes redistricting.
      • Referendum appears to be moving against Senate lines while congressional effort is dead.
      • Lawsuits moving on both Senate and Congressional.
      • Congressional lawsuit is the most interesting.