Trends and Directions What’s in the future? December 2003 Mark Cathcart

Some one asked about futures… Energy Electricity will get personal – solar textiles Waves my surpass wind as an energy Food More fish will be farmed than fished! As much as 20% in the USA alone Health Feet will continue to get bigger! Average foot size in 1900’s – 4; 1980’s – 7; now – 9! Obesity will continue to “spread” around the globe Demographics Population will decelerate Need for condoms will double by 2015! Poverty mapping (aka social demographics) becomes a must have!

Energy

Electricity will get personal – solar textiles

Waves my surpass wind as an energy

Food

More fish will be farmed than fished!

As much as 20% in the USA alone

Health

Feet will continue to get bigger!

Average foot size in 1900’s – 4; 1980’s – 7; now – 9!

Obesity will continue to “spread” around the globe

Demographics

Population will decelerate

Need for condoms will double by 2015!

Poverty mapping (aka social demographics) becomes a must have!

Some one asked about futures… Environment Polar bears become extinct by 2100? 2/3 of Worlds population will have water shortages by 2050 Consumption tripled in 50-years “ Water wars” are on the way – Iceland/Mexico/Pakistan/India More refugees created by dams and development than by persecution Governance Voters vanish worldwide More money spent on fewer votes Jury trials may disappear in USA Globalisation continues to create culture clashes Governments must learn how to solve Economics The future of money will be digital, virtual and universal! Will there be books ? Maybe, maybe not! Core context for Intellectual property directions

Environment

Polar bears become extinct by 2100?

2/3 of Worlds population will have water shortages by 2050

Consumption tripled in 50-years

“ Water wars” are on the way – Iceland/Mexico/Pakistan/India

More refugees created by dams and development than by persecution

Governance

Voters vanish worldwide

More money spent on fewer votes

Jury trials may disappear in USA

Globalisation continues to create culture clashes

Governments must learn how to solve

Economics

The future of money will be digital, virtual and universal!

Will there be books ? Maybe, maybe not!

Core context for Intellectual property directions

Some one asked about futures… Education Corporations get more entrenched in education May open own institutes of education/technology Future workforce May be problems ahead Potential 10-million shortfall in USA Lack of key skills are early signs Top college graduates turning away from science and engineering Manufacturers, Restaurants etc. having problems Aging population in work Needs substantial changes to national policies Faster paced, better-educated, harder-working Time increasingly world’s most precious commodity

Education

Corporations get more entrenched in education

May open own institutes of education/technology

Future workforce

May be problems ahead

Potential 10-million shortfall in USA

Lack of key skills are early signs

Top college graduates turning away from science and engineering

Manufacturers, Restaurants etc. having problems

Aging population in work

Needs substantial changes to national policies

Faster paced, better-educated, harder-working

Time increasingly world’s most precious commodity

Some one asked about futures… Science RNAi – Middleware for the Gene – NBT Technology Computers simulate crises before they happen Accurate prediction and modelling of climate and tectonics Hand signals will be understood by intelligent environments Fabrics mixed with ceremics, electronics, chemicals and plastics make really smart clothes Rate of change may soon reach turning point “ Rabbits competing for food in enclosed field”

Science

RNAi – Middleware for the Gene – NBT

Technology

Computers simulate crises before they happen

Accurate prediction and modelling of climate and tectonics

Hand signals will be understood by intelligent environments

Fabrics mixed with ceremics, electronics, chemicals and plastics

make really smart clothes

Rate of change may soon reach turning point

“ Rabbits competing for food in enclosed field”

Some one asked about futures… And oh yes - Computers Grid integrates with commercial IT Enabled by web services Heterogeneous “clusters” Service Oriented Architecture become the norm Enabled by web services Enterprise Services Bus Business/Application integration and messaging Utility/Systems integration and messaging “ You wait for one bus and two come along” Micro payments revisited, rejuvenated Enabled by web services

And oh yes - Computers

Grid integrates with commercial IT

Enabled by web services

Heterogeneous “clusters”

Service Oriented Architecture become the norm

Enabled by web services

Enterprise Services Bus

Business/Application integration and messaging

Utility/Systems integration and messaging

“ You wait for one bus and two come along”

Micro payments revisited, rejuvenated

Enabled by web services