Life in the Clouds: Potential Effects of Climate Change on Montane Fir Forests in the Northeast

Direct effects

Indirect effects Limited access to prey reduces survival and nest success

Limited access to prey reduces survival and nest success

Indirect effects Changes in phenology disrupt synchrony between breeding and food supply in Pied Flycatcher (Both et al. 2006)

Changes in phenology disrupt synchrony between breeding and food supply in Pied Flycatcher (Both et al. 2006)

Indirect effects Changes in biota expose native birds to new competitors, predators, parasites, or diseases

Changes in biota expose native birds to new competitors, predators, parasites, or diseases

Indirect effects Habitats shift or disappear

Habitats shift or disappear

Indirect effects Changes in prey abundance affect survival and reproductive success Changes in phenology disrupt synchrony between breeding and food supply Native birds are exposed to new predators, competitors, diseases, and/or parasites Habitats shift or disappear

Changes in prey abundance affect survival and reproductive success

Changes in phenology disrupt synchrony between breeding and food supply

Native birds are exposed to new predators, competitors, diseases, and/or parasites

Habitats shift or disappear

Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment • Collaboration among Union of Concerned Scientists and 40 independent scientists • Geographic Scope Nine Northeast states, from Maine to Pennsylvania • Peer Review • Sector Analysis www.climatechoices.org

Climate across the Northeast is already changing Annual temperatures across the Northeast have warmed almost 2 º F since 1970 Winters have been warming fastest, at 1.3 º F per decade since 1970 Winter snowpack is decreasing Plants are flowering earlier in the spring Extreme heat in summer is becoming more frequent

Annual temperatures across the Northeast have warmed almost 2 º F since 1970

Winters have been warming fastest, at 1.3 º F per decade since 1970

Winter snowpack is decreasing

Plants are flowering earlier in the spring

Extreme heat in summer is becoming more frequent

How will our emissions choices affect future Northeast climate? Obtain scenarios of future emissions from human activities

Obtain scenarios of future emissions from human activities

Projecting climate change for the Northeast Obtain scenarios of future emissions from human activities Use scenarios as input to global climate model simulations

Obtain scenarios of future emissions from human activities

Use scenarios as input to global climate model simulations

Projecting future climate change for the Northeast Obtain scenarios of future emissions from human activities Use scenarios as input to global climate model simulations Downscale global-scale projections to the regional level

Obtain scenarios of future emissions from human activities

Use scenarios as input to global climate model simulations

Downscale global-scale projections to the regional level

Projecting Future Climate Change for the Northeast: Rising Annual Temperatures 2 o F warming since 1970 Higher: 3.6-6.9 o C Lower: 1.9-3.6 o C

Projecting Future Climate Change for the Northeast: Rising Annual Temperatures

Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment Sectoral Analysis Sectoral Analyses Coastal Marine Forest Agriculture Winter Recreation Human Health Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change

Sectoral Analyses

Coastal

Marine

Forest

Agriculture

Winter Recreation

Human Health

Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment Sectoral Analysis Nick Rodenhouse Wellesley College Stephen Matthews Ohio State Univ. Louis Iverson US Forest Service Kent McFarland Vermont Center for Ecostudies Dan Lambert Vermont Center for Ecostudies Scott Sillett Smithsonian Institute Richard Holmes Dartmouth College

Partners In Flight = North America Watch List IUCN Red List = Vulnerable ABC/Audubon WatchList = Red List Canada = Candidate for Federal Listing USFWS = Special Concern ME, NH, NY, VT = Special Concern www.bicknellsthrush.org

Annual survey 120 routes 5 points per route 10 min counts Mountain Birdwatch

A GIS model of Bicknell’s Thrush habitat in the northeastern United States 263 km ² 5 km ² 88 km ² 261 km ² 496 km ²

Temperature equations were derived from regression analysis of long-term monthly mean weather station data (1950-1980; n = 164) against latitude, longitude and elevation. http://www.pnet.sr.unh.edu/climcalc/

BITH habitat Mean July Temp 13 ° C – 19 ° C Presidential Range, NH Mean July Temperature Model

Bicknell’s habitat declines rapidly with rising temperature Northeast 0.0 20,000.0 40,000.0 60,000.0 80,000.0 100,000.0 120,000.0 140,000.0 160,000.0 current 1+ 2+ 3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ Mean July Temp. Change (°C ) Relative to 1950-1980 BITH Habitat (Ha) Low scenario 2.8°C High scenario 5.9°C

+1 ْ C

+2 ْ C

+3 ْ C

+4 ْ C

+5 ْ C

http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas/ Climate Change Tree Atlas (A Spatial Database of 134 Tree Species of the Eastern USA) Anantha M Prasad, Louis R Iverson, Steve Matthews, Matt Peters NRS-4151, USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station, Delaware, Ohio

Estimated locations of hardwood-boreal forest ecotone From: Brian Beckage et al. 2008. A rapid upward shift of a forest ecotone during 40 years Of warming in the Green Mountains of VT. http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/abstract/0708921105v1 /

How might emissions choices affect the Bicknell’s Thrush habitat? HIGHER A1FI LOWER B1 Source: IPCC 2001

American Robin +5% range increase Hermit Thrush -60% range loss Swainson’s Thrush -100% range loss http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas/ Climate Change Bird Atlas (A Spatial Database of 147 Bird Species of the Eastern USA) Steve Matthews, Louis R Iverson, Anantha M Prasad, Matt Peters NRS-4151, USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station, Delaware, Ohio

From: Sekercioglu, C. H., Schneider, S.H., Fay, J.P., Loarie, S.R. 2008. Climate change, elevational range shifts, and bird extinctions Conservation Biology 22: 140-150 Higher: 3.6-6.9 o C Lower: 1.9-3.6 o C

Uncertainties How and how rapidly will habitats change? Will present associations between birds and habitat change? Will change be gradual or sudden? Will Manny be Manny and get another ring?

How and how rapidly will habitats change?

Will present associations between birds and habitat change?

Will change be gradual or sudden?

Will Manny be Manny and get another ring?

Climate Change Standings W L Tie Pct Resident Species 56 25 19 0.56 Forest Birds 38 54 8 0.38 Wetland Birds 35 53 12 0.35 Migrants 33 49 29 0.33

Conclusions Boreal and high-elevation bird species may currently be at the threshold of critical change Species at mid elevations may be experiencing declines in habitat quality Large changes in bird communities of the Northeast are likely to result from climate change Resident and southern species will be favored Declines are projected for 2 out of 3 wetland and forest species We can reduce risk by following low-emissions pathway

Boreal and high-elevation bird species may currently be at the threshold of critical change

Species at mid elevations may be experiencing declines in habitat quality

Large changes in bird communities of the Northeast are likely to result from climate change

Resident and southern species will be favored

Declines are projected for 2 out of 3 wetland and forest species

We can reduce risk by following low-emissions pathway

Reducing Northeast emissions can make a difference Tony Tremblay AP Photo/Michael Dwyer Note: U.S. emissions include the Northeast Source: Emissions data for 2001 from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International energy annual (2003), and EIA, Emissions of greenhouse gases in the United States (2004).

Personal choices matter Northeast CO 2 Emissions 2003