Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 1
clear	
  thinking	
  in	
  
a	
  complex	
  world	
  
Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 2
Of the £99m increase in total UK sales of alcoholic drinks in
...
Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 3
Recent beer innovation trends
Sustainable	
  packaging	
  
Bee...
Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 4
Recent beer innovation trends
†  Sustainable packaging - the ...
Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 5
Two new shopper ideas
Google	
  job-­‐swappers	
  have	
  star...
Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 6
70% of all purchase decisions are made at point of purchase?
H...
Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 7
#3 ROI
Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 8
The 3rd wise monkey…
#3 ROI
3. Providing sensible ROI measures...
Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 9
Case study example…
The	
  beer	
  simula=on	
  allowed	
  us	...
Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 10
Which in turn means we need to…
#1
Identify the
true drivers ...
Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 11
We do this by…
#1
In-depth
genuine qual =
in-home
ethnography...
Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 12
Our Shopper Tracking looks at the full purchase journey
On	
 ...
Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 13
ROI – Spend wisely not just on price promotions!
Traditional ...
Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 14
‘What	
  If?’	
  simulator	
  to	
  op=mise	
  on-­‐draught	
...
Case Study Key Findings
Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 16
Case Study: Key Findings
†  Overall, customer experiences ou...
Latent Class delivers true factors which drive purchase
choice
Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 18
†  While	
   there	
   is	
   an	
   overall	
   pathway	
  ...
Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 19
†  Latent	
  class	
  analysis	
  (LC)	
  can	
  best	
  be	...
NEW	
  YORK	
  
ALBANY	
  
CHICAGO	
  
INDIANAPOLIS	
  
KANSAS	
  CITY	
  
LONG	
  BEACH	
  
ORLANDO	
  
PHILADELPHIA	
  
...
Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 21
What Decision Pathways™ Means to Your Business
†  Iden=fy	
 ...
Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 22
The Decision Process
†  The opportunities for you to engage ...
Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 23
The Challenge
†  Consumers follow different pathways of disc...
Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 24
Benefits of Understanding the Process
†  Understanding the d...
Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 25
Decision Pathway Key Factors at Each Stage
WHERE SHOULD
I GO?...
Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 26
Decision Pathways: Dissecting the Decision Process
Decisions	...
Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 27
Analysis: Overview
Driver	
  Analyses	
  
•  Examine	
  dimen...
Toy Purchase
†  Case Study
Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 29
Business Objectives
†  A major toy brand was seeking ways to...
Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 30
Overview	
  of	
  5	
  Purchase	
  Pathways	
  
1:	
  Planned...
Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 31
Other	
  DisDnguishing	
  Factors	
  Considered	
  
Wanted	
 ...
Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 32
Other	
  DisDnguishing	
  Factors	
  Considered	
  
The	
  it...
Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 33
Other	
  DisDnguishing	
  Factors	
  Considered	
  
Saw/heard...
Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 34
Size	
  of	
  X	
  Moldable	
  Compound	
  Purchased	
  
Base...
Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 35
Average	
  Actual	
  Spend	
  on	
  Category	
  Purchase	
   ...
Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 36
1:	
  Planned	
  Expansion
Planned	
  purchases	
  where	
  c...
Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 37
1:	
  Planned	
  	
  Expansion	
   2:	
  Playset	
  Purchase	...
Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 38
1:	
  Planned	
  	
  Expansion	
   2:	
  Playset	
  Purchase	...
Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 39
Prioritizing the Impact of the Touchpoints
Chosen	
  
Newspap...
Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 40
Case Study: Recommended Actions
Maximize	
  the	
  impact	
  ...
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Beer news

  1. 1. Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 1 clear  thinking  in   a  complex  world  
  2. 2. Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 2 Of the £99m increase in total UK sales of alcoholic drinks in 2013, £64.6m came from new products and brand extensions. SABMiller  is  focusing   product  innova=on  in   the  beer  and  cider   categories  include:  -­‐       -­‐  CraB  beers     -­‐  Flavoured  beers     -­‐  Beer  cocktails     -­‐  High  alcohol  beers   Harvey  &  Son  wants   to  access  a  younger   adult  drinker   audience,  who  are   increasingly  engaging   in  the  trend  for   microbreweries,   specialist  beverages   and  seasonal  variants,   without  aliena=ng  the   brewery’s  loyal  fan   base  -­‐  the  "tradi=onal   ale  drinker".     Fuller  Smith  &  Turner   the  most  recent   innova=on  at  Fuller’s   has  been  to  redesign   the  boLle  and  badge   of  its  single  unit  off-­‐ trade  product  -­‐  the   objec=ve  here  was  to   translate  the  brand’s   high  visibility  and   popularity  in  the  on-­‐ trade  market  into  off-­‐ trade  sales.   Fyne  Ales  key  focus   here  is  developing  a   loyal  fan  base  and  a   leveraging  its  heritage   appeal,  and  added   that  obviously   ensuring  high  visibility   within  the  venues  in   which  its  beers  are   distributed  is  key.  
  3. 3. Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 3 Recent beer innovation trends Sustainable  packaging   Beer  cocktails  -­‐  cas=ng  a  different  light  on   the  category.   The  next  stage  of  flavours   The  emo=onal  connec=on  to  local   products     Mimicking  the  “theatre”  of  on-­‐trade  
  4. 4. Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 4 Recent beer innovation trends †  Sustainable packaging - the drinks market is saturated with the latest easy-to-open bottles and cool designs, but another consideration is how to make innovative packaging that's as sustainable as it is “cool.” †  Beer cocktails - casting a different light on the category and opening it up to a wider audience, including more women - brands need to be careful not to alienate their core audiences here however. †  The next stage of flavours – have fruit beers jumped the shark with the release of Carlsberg’s blackcurrant beer? The spirit segment led the way here and many feel the concept has run its course. †  The emotional connection to local products – linked to the rise of craft breweries which is a theme running through many of our conversations. The key point is that consumer behaviour is changing, and local craft beers offer a product they can build an emotional connection with. †  Mimicking the “theatre” of on-trade – e.g. Fuller’s redesign of its bottle and badge to translate the brand’s high visibility and popularity in the on-trade market into off-trade sales.
  5. 5. Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 5 Two new shopper ideas Google  job-­‐swappers  have  started  adop=ng  P&G’s   lingo.  During  a  session  on  evalua=ng  in-­‐store   displays,  a  P&G  marketer  described  the  company’s   standard  method,  known  as  “stop,  hold,  close”:   Product  packaging  first  needs  to  “stop”  a  shopper,   Mr.  Lich=g  said.  “Hold”  is  a  pause  to  read  the  label,   and  “close”  is  when  a  shopper  puts  the  product  in   the  cart.  Google’s  Ms.  Chudy  gasped.  “This  is  just   like  our  text  ads,”  she  said.  The  headline  is  the   “stop,”  its  descrip=on  is  the  “hold”  and  the  “close”   is  clicking  through  to  the  Web  site.  “This  is  going  to   get  so  much  easier,  now  that  I’m  learning  their   language,”  she  said.   “stop,  hold,  close”   via  packaging   Bloomingdale’s,  for  instance,  billboards   the  smell  of  baby  powder  in  its  infant-­‐ clothing  department,  while  hints  of  lilac   waB  around  the  department  store’s   in=mate-­‐apparel  displays.  American   upscale  ice  cream  chain  Emack  &  Bolio’s   recently  adopted  a  waffle-­‐cone  smell  to   aLract  patrons  to  the  scoop  shop  within   their  Hard  Rock  Hotel  branch,  where   sales  had  been  flagging.  The  effect?  Ice   cream  sales  shot  up  more  than  a  third.   “billboarding”   via  scents  
  6. 6. Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 6 70% of all purchase decisions are made at point of purchase? How  true  is  this  statement?   Where’s  the  evidence?   Do  you  believe  that?   Beer  50%   Healthcare  25%   Pre-­‐loaded  brain   Adver=sing   Social  media   Brand  preference   Experiences  
  7. 7. Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 7 #3 ROI
  8. 8. Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 8 The 3rd wise monkey… #3 ROI 3. Providing sensible ROI measures for the traditional in-store activity, and a good testing research process to allow you to simulate/optimise. 3. Build a set of key touch point measures, not just awareness and purchase, but throughout the whole shopper journey. Which  means  we  need  to…  
  9. 9. Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 9 Case study example… The  beer  simula=on  allowed  us   to  prove  theore=cally  that  the   right  tap  line  up  would  add  6   percent  to  the  boLom  line  using   the  op=mal  simula=on.  That's   an  example  that  came  to  mind.    
  10. 10. Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 10 Which in turn means we need to… #1 Identify the true drivers of brand choice = emotional and attitudinal measures ----- Via deep depth qualitative ethnography #2 Segment these drivers by… Drivers of SWITCH Drivers of CHOICE #3 Measure and create KPIs based on emotional and attitudinal factors within the purchase tree/decision process.
  11. 11. Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 11 We do this by… #1 In-depth genuine qual = in-home ethnography & shopper ethnography #2 Measuring the drivers and creating new on-going KPIs #3 Measuring quantitativeley,
  12. 12. Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 12 Our Shopper Tracking looks at the full purchase journey On  observa=on  we  found  that   smelling  product  was  a  cri=cal   touch  point.   We  got  them  to  make  self   videos  of  their  shopping   experience.     They  even  made  videos  of   themselves  using  the  product.  
  13. 13. Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 13 ROI – Spend wisely not just on price promotions! Traditional Media TV Radio Publications Word of Mouth Recommendations Requests Joint Decisions Digital Media Social Networks Retail Websites Discussion Groups Promotions Sales Coupons In-Store Product Characteristics Pricing Brand Previous Experience We  use  Heuris=cs  to  understand  the   purchase  decisions  and  iden=fy  the   key  touch  and  switch  points   Decision  Pathways™   is  used  to  determine   the  rela=ve   importance  of   different  drivers  on   the  purchase   decision  i.e.   magazines,  mobile,   online,  print  etc.,  on   choice  of  purchase.    
  14. 14. Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 14 ‘What  If?’  simulator  to  op=mise  on-­‐draught  beer  selec=o  nand  measure   the  effect  of  range  cannibalisa=on.    
  15. 15. Case Study Key Findings
  16. 16. Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 16 Case Study: Key Findings †  Overall, customer experiences outside of the grocery store, both before and after a XXX shopping occasion, have the most impact on customer engagement. •  Stage 1: Initial Contact and Stage 5: Post-Shopping are the most important areas of the purchase process. •  Key touch points within the Initial Contact stage include: »  ”XXX advertisement on TV" »  “XXX website” »  “Friends' advice or recommendation about XXX” •  "Frequent XXX purchaser program" in Stage 5: Post-Shopping is the top motivator in the entire category. †  For Brand X as a whole, there is strongest delivery on touch points related to loyalty programs, advertising and certain beer displays. •  For these attributes two or more Brand X brands perform well, though category leader Bud Light tends to outshine Brand X in many of these aspects and others. †  Opportunity exists to generate greater affinity for each of Brand X’s xxx brands by improving performance in key areas where a brand’s delivery is currently lagging. •  For example, incremental affinity for Coors Light can be achieved by improving delivery of “xxx website” and “Friends’ advice or recommendation about xxx”. »  As each brand currently presents its own set of strengths and weaknesses, strategies should be evaluated for each brand independently.
  17. 17. Latent Class delivers true factors which drive purchase choice
  18. 18. Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 18 †  While   there   is   an   overall   pathway   of   ini=a=on   through   decision   for   all   customers,   in   the   switching  process,  customer  needs  and  provider  reac=ons  may  differ.    Given  this,  we  look  to   dive  deeper  into  understanding  and  classifying  the  various  ways  in  which  customers  arrive  at   the  decision  to  switch  service  providers.   A  few  things  to  note:     •  These  pathways  are  NOT  personas  or  segments  of  customers.  The  same  customer  can  fall  into  a   different  Pathway  with  different  buying  situa=ons.   •  They  ARE  mindsets  that  encompass  the  factors  and  criteria  that  are  part  of  a  buying  decision.     •  These  Pathways  are  created  in  the  following  manner:   o  Asking   customers   to   recall   the   details   of   the   decision   to   shop   around   for   a   new   service   provider   and   iden=fying  common  paLerns  in  the  decision  process  based  on  factors  that  were  considered.   o  Profiling  the  pathways  for  other  key  informa=on  (i.e.,  customer  type,  behaviors,  etc.)   o  Reviewing  the  pathways  to  determine  how  well-­‐differen=ated  they  are  and  how  well  they  create  a  cohesive   story.   †  Using  Latent  Class  analysis  that  looks  across  all  switching  occasions,  we  quan=fy  and  formalize   the  various  decision  scenarios  that  customers  face  and  provide  a  plaoorm  for  delving  into  the   dynamics  of  these  decisions  to  beLer  understand  influencers,  mo=vators,  etc.   Differen=a=ng  the  Decision  Pathways  
  19. 19. Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 19 †  Latent  class  analysis  (LC)  can  best  be  thought  of  as  an  “improved”  cluster  analysis,  which  uses   sta=s=cal   (rather   than   mathema=cal)   methodology   to   construct   the   results.   The   main   difference   from   K   means   is   that   cases   are   not   absolutely   assigned   to   classes,   but   have   a   probability  of  membership  for  each  class.   †  LC  clustering  is  a  model  based  approach.    An  advantage  of  using  a  sta=s=cal  model  is  that  the   choice  of  the  cluster  criterion  is  less  arbitrary,  and  the  approach  includes  rigorous  sta=s=cal   tests.  In  the  case  of  K  means,  the  researcher  must  determine  the  number  of  classes  without   relying   on   formal   diagnos=c   sta=s=cs   since   none   are   available.   In   LC   modeling,   various   sta=s=cs  are  available  that  can  assist  in  choosing  one  model  over  another.       †  Variables   included   in   the   analysis   can   be   of   any   type:   ordinal,   mul=-­‐category,   counts,   con=nuous.    No  decisions  have  to  be  made  about  the  scaling  of  the  observed  variables.  This  is   very  different  from  standard  non-­‐hierarchical  cluster  methods  like  K-­‐means,  where  scaling  is   always  an  issue.       †  To  summarize,  the  main  advantages  of  Latent  Class  are:     •  We  can  use  mixture  of  variables  of  different  types   •  Rescaling  or  standardizing  data  is  not  an  issue   •  There  are  more  formal  criteria  to  decide  on  the  number  of  clusters  and  chose  the  best  solu=ons   •  Some  assump=ons  about  distribu=ons    (i.e.,  equal  variances)  can  be  relaxed   Behind  the  Scenes  of  Crea=ng  Decision  Pathways  
  20. 20. NEW  YORK   ALBANY   CHICAGO   INDIANAPOLIS   KANSAS  CITY   LONG  BEACH   ORLANDO   PHILADELPHIA   SAN  FRANCISCO   Overview of Decision Pathway™ Approach Prepared  for:  
  21. 21. Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 21 What Decision Pathways™ Means to Your Business †  Iden=fy  the  various  paths  by  which  consumers  make  decisions  in  your   category   †  Determine  where  you  can  best  influence  their   purchase  decisions   †  Focus  resources  around  paths  that  are  most   prevalent  and  most  advantageous  for  your  brand   †  Maximize  your  use  of  touch  points  and  other   influencers   †  Impact  the  decision  process  in  ways  that  boost  brand  selec=on  
  22. 22. Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 22 The Decision Process †  The opportunities for you to engage with your customers and prospects are complex and ever increasing Traditional Media •  TV •  Radio •  Publications Digital Media •  Social Networks •  Retail Websites •  Discussion Groups •  Mobile Promotions •  Sales •  Coupons •  In-Store Word of Mouth •  Recommendations •  Requests •  Joint Decisions Product Characteristics •  Pricing •  Brand •  Previous Experience
  23. 23. Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 23 The Challenge †  Consumers follow different pathways of discovery and investigation in coming to your offering
  24. 24. Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 24 Benefits of Understanding the Process †  Understanding the decision process allows you to: •  Fine tune how you promote your offerings •  Reach out to people who drive decisions •  Leverage touchpoints Word   of  Mouth   AdverDsing   PromoDons   Digital   MarkeDng   Point  of  Purchase  
  25. 25. Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 25 Decision Pathway Key Factors at Each Stage WHERE SHOULD I GO? •  Variety •  Prices, Specials •  Recent experience HOW DO I CHOOSE? •  Use Store Coupon •  In store display •  Loyalty NEED TO SHOP •  To stock up on different products •  Routine shop •  For a special occasion (i.e. party) WHAT SHOULD I CONSIDER FOR THIS TRIP? •  Visit Websites for promos •  Check Ads •  Determine what others want HOW SATISIFIED? •  Future purchase intent •  Consider for other items •  Make it my ‘favorite’
  26. 26. Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 26 Decision Pathways: Dissecting the Decision Process Decisions  made  and  in  what  order   •  Do  I  want  to  cook  or  have  someone  else  cook?   •  Do  I  want  to  eat  at  a  restaurant  or  carry  out?   •  What  type  of  food  am  I  in  the  mood  for?   •  How  much  do  I  want  to  spend?   •  When  do  I  want  to  eat?   •  How  much  =me  do  I  want  to  spend  ea=ng?   •  How  long  will  it  take  to  get  the  food?   •  How  much  food  do  I  need  to  get?   •  What  food  preferences  of  others  will  I  need  to  consider?   •  Do  I  want  something  healthy?   •  From  which  restaurant  do  I  want  to  purchase  the  food?   •  Any  other  decision  made…   Drill-­‐Down  QuesDons   •  Loca=on  when  thinking  about  decision  (home,  work,  car,  etc.)   Ø  Where  coming  from  and  going  to   •  Who  involved  in  decision     •  Factors  considered  in  decision   •  Most  influen=al  factor   Restaurants  Considered   •  Who  first  men=oned  each  restaurant  considered   •  Touch  points  in  past  2  weeks  (e.g.,  ate  there,  saw  a  sign,  drove   by,  other  method)   •  Whether  coupon  or  promo=onal  offer  looked  for  and/or  found   •  Whether  address/phone  number  looked  up;  if  so,  where/how   EXAMPLE   †  Following  is  an  example  of  how  we  ask  respondents  to  dissect  the  decision  process  in  the  survey…  
  27. 27. Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 27 Analysis: Overview Driver  Analyses   •  Examine  dimensions  and  touch  points   that  mo=vate  consumers  toward   choosing  a  Brand   Pathways  IdenDficaDon   Reveal  the  major  underlying  paLerns  in  decision-­‐making   •  What  is  involved  in  decision;  the  viable  pathways  that   exist  and  how  different  scenarios  might  mean  different   things  to  your  business  and  brand  strategy   •  We  used  Latent  Class  Analysis  to  reveal  the  underlying   paLerns  in  decision-­‐making,  these  analyses  group   respondents  according  to  the  way  they  make  decisions,   much  the  way  segmenta=on  creates  groups  based  on   autudes  or  behaviors   Developing  Strategies  and  TacDcs   •  Once  we  iden=fied  the  best  Targets  and  uncovered  the    pathways  leading   to  their  decision,  we  can  develop  strategies,  communica=ons,  marke=ng   ini=a=ves  and  tac=cs  to  ac=vate  the  most  relevant  Targets  for  the  soB   drink  brand  at  key  touch  points  of  their  engagement    
  28. 28. Toy Purchase †  Case Study
  29. 29. Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 29 Business Objectives †  A major toy brand was seeking ways to better engage with moms as they purchase toys for their young children. •  By dissecting the decision process and identifying the various purchaser paths that exist they hoped to create a more effective retail strategy. †  Insights from this research are being used in their business planning to: •  Guide in-store promotions •  Maximize impact of packaging and shelf displays •  Motivate consumers prior to a shopping trip •  Better capture impulse purchases •  Steal purchases away from competitors •  Position products more effectively to attract different types of purchase scenarios
  30. 30. Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 30 Overview  of  5  Purchase  Pathways   1:  Planned  Expansion   4:  Deciders  at  Shelf   5:  Impulse  Purchase   3:  Compound  Replenishment   2:  PlaysetPurchase   Planned  purchases  where  consumer  is  commiLed  to  buying  X   items  –  likely  to  expand  collec=on.    Higher  spend.   A  planned  trip  where  purchasers  are  open  to  all  types  of   products  from  dough  to  playsets  and  seeking  whichever   brand  offers  something  they  like.    Highest  spend. Planned  purchases  where  playsets  are  the  focus.    Driven  by   adver=sing,  child  requests,  and  child  theme  preferences.   Replacing,  replenishing,  and/or  adding   colors  drive  purchases  which  are  mainly   planned.    In-­‐store  cues  cri=cal  to  capturing   unplanned  segment  of  these  purchases.   Lowest  spend.     Primarily  unplanned  purchases  where  dough   or  accessories  are  in  considera=on.    In-­‐store   cues  important.    Lower  spend.       16%   10%   26%   27%   21%   41% 23% 15% 10% 11%
  31. 31. Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 31 Other  DisDnguishing  Factors  Considered   Wanted  to  try  some  new  accessories  for  my   moldable  dough,  clay,  or  other  compound     (+3)   Average  #  of  men-ons  including  the  first  men-on   and  all  other  men-ons   3.3   (-­‐0.4)   Top  5  Factors  Considered  During  the  Purchase  Occasion   Wanted  to  buy  something  to  help  with  my  child's   development   (+9)   Wanted  to  buy  moldable  dough  or  clay,  or  some  sort   of  toy  that  is  designed  to  be  used  with  these  or  other   compounds   (+9)   The  child  I  bought  for  loves  moldable  dough,  clay,  or   other  compound   (-­‐5)   Wanted  something  within  a  specific  price  range   (-­‐10)   Wanted  something  that  a  child  could  play  on  his/her   own   (-­‐3)   Incidence  of  Pathway   Pathway 1: Planned Expansion 16%   Whether  Purchase  was  Planned  or  Unplanned   Planned   (+21)   Unplanned   (-­‐21)   33% 27% 21% 17% 15% Brands  Purchased   BRAND   (+19)   Non-­‐BRAND(Net)   (-­‐40)   100% 1% Products  Purchased   Moldable  dough   (+15)   Basic  Accessories   (+29)   83% 57% 41%   88%   12%   9% Purchase  Occasion   For  a  December  holiday  present     (+7)  39% Average  Actual  Spend  on  Category  Purchase   Size  of  Value   US    $13.00     (+3.00)   20%   France   €  18.90   (+.40)   42%   +/-­‐  =  point  difference  vs.  those   not  in  pathway   Own  1+  Playsets   US   (-­‐9)   France   (-­‐12)   45% 53% %  Conversion=  100%     Ø  Planned  purchases  where  consumer  is  commiLed  to  buying  X  products;  mainly  dough  or  accessories  (i.e.  “essen=als”).    Spend   is  on  the  higher  side,  indica=ng  that  price  is  less  of  a  factor.  X  loyalty  is  a  defining  criteria.      
  32. 32. Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 32 Other  DisDnguishing  Factors  Considered   The  item  was  based  on  a  character  that  the  child  I   bought  for  likes   (+8)   I  played  with  moldable  dough,  clay,  or  other   compound  when  I  was  a  child  and  wanted  to  buy  it       (+7)   It  was  recommended  to  me  by  a  friend  or  family   member   (+7)   Average  #  of  men-ons  including  the  first  men-on   and  all  other  men-ons   4.2   (+0.8)   Top  5  Factors  Considered  During  the  Purchase  Occasion   Wanted  to  buy  something  to  help  with  my  child's   development   (0)   The  child  I  bought  for  loves  moldable  dough,  clay,  or  other   compound   (-­‐3)   Wanted  to  get  moldable  dough,  clay,  or  other  compound   products  that  were  specific  to  the  =me  of  year/a  par=cular   holiday   (+15)   It  caught  your  eye  on  a  shelf  display   (+5)   Wanted  to  buy  moldable  dough  or  clay,  or  some  sort  of  toy   that  is  designed  to  be  used  with  these  or  other  compounds   (-­‐2)   Pathway 4: Deciders at Shelf Incidence  of  Pathway   Whether  Purchase  was  Planned  or  Unplanned   Planned   (+14)   Unplanned   (-­‐14)   27% 22% 22% 20% 19% Brands  Purchased   BRAND   (-­‐12)   Non-­‐BRAND  (Net)   (+42)   Compe=tor  A   (+17)   Compe=tor  B   (+14)   Compe=tor  C   (+5)   77% 64% 18% 16% 12% Products  Purchased   Moldable  dough   (+4)   Basic  Accessories   (+18)   Playsets  with  themes  such  as  food  or   animals   (+2)   Playsets  with  themes  such  as  TV  and   movie  characters   (+12)   75% 51% 31% 17% 23%   85%   15%   17% 13% 12% Purchase  Occasion   For  a  December  holiday  present     (-­‐13)   As  a  reward  or  a  treat   (+3)   Because  your  exis=ng  supply  was  depleted   or  dried  out   (0)   For  a  birthday  present   (+4)   23% 20% 17% 15% +/-­‐  =  point  difference  vs.  those  not   in  pathway   Average  Actual  Spend  on  Category  Purchase   Size  of  Value   US    $18.90     (+9.50)   17%   France   €  23.30   (+6.00)   29%   %  Conversion=  85%     Ø  Compe==ve  brands  are  more  likely  to  be  considered  in  this  pathway.    As  with  the  prior  path,  it  is  also  a  planned  trip.     However,  purchasers  in  this  mindset  are  open  to  all  types  of  products  from  dough  to  playsets.    This  path  also  results  in  the   highest  spend.   10%  
  33. 33. Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 33 Other  DisDnguishing  Factors  Considered   Saw/heard  an  adver=sement  on  TV  that  interested   me   (+14)   Somebody  requested  it   (+13)   The  item  was  based  on  a  character  that  the  child  I   bought  for  likes   (+7)   Average  #  of  men-ons  including  the  first  men-on   and  all  other  men-ons   4.0   (+0.5)   Top  5  Factors  Considered  During  the  Purchase  Occasion   The  child  I  bought  for  loves  moldable  dough,  clay,  or   other  compound   (+14)   I  liked/knew  my  child  would  like  the  fun  theme  of   the  item   (+21)   Wanted  to  buy  something  to  help  with  my  child's   development   (0)   Wanted  something  within  a  specific  price  range   (+2)   Wanted  to  buy  moldable  dough  or  clay,  or  some  sort   of  toy  that  is  designed  to  be  used  with  these  or  other   compounds   (+4)   Incidence  of  Pathway   26%   Whether  Purchase  was  Planned  or  Unplanned   Planned   (+5)   Unplanned   (-­‐5)   36% 36% 27% 26% 24% Brands  Purchased   BRAND   (-­‐7)   Non-­‐BRAND  (Net)   (+16)   Compe=tor  A   (+15)   81% 42% 20% Products  Purchased   Playsets  with  themes  such  as  food  or   animals   (+62)   Playsets  with  themes  such  as  TV  and   movie  characters   (+5)   79% 11% 15%   77%   23%   21% 21% 16% Purchase  Occasion   For  a  December  holiday  present     (+29)   For  a  birthday  present   (+5)   57% 16% +/-­‐  =  point  difference  vs.  those   not  in  pathway   Own  1+  Playsets   US   (+29)   France   (+5)   73% 64% Average  Actual  Spend  on  Category  Purchase   Size  of  Value   US    $15.10     (+6.30)   37%   France   €  24.80   (+7.20)   19%   %  Conversion=  84%     Pathway  2:  Playset  Purchase   Ø  Playsets  are  the  singular  focus  for  these  purchases.    A  child’s  interest  in  the  category  and  a  par=cular  theme/character  drives   this  decision.  Requests  from  a  child  and  adver=sing  are  influen=al.    These  are  planned,  and  spend  is  typically  on  the  higher   end.  
  34. 34. Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 34 Size  of  X  Moldable  Compound  Purchased   Base:  Purchased  X  Moldable  Compound   4-­‐pack(s)  of  cans   (+7)   Pack  of  10  or  more  cans  sold   together   (-­‐14)   Single  can(s)   (+8)   Average  Actual  Spend  on  Category  Purchase   Size  of  Value   US    $4.70     (-­‐7.90)   12%   France   €  8.40   (-­‐11.40)   5%   Purchase  Occasion   Because  your  exis=ng  supply  was  depleted   or  dried  out   (+14)   No  par=cular  occasion   (+7)   Other  DisDnguishing  Factors  Considered   It  caught  your  eye  on  a  shelf  display   (0)   Wanted  to  add  new  colors  or  a  wider  variety  of  colors   of  moldable  dough,  clay,  or  other  compound  to  what   we  already  had   (+6)   Average  #  of  men-ons  including  the  first  men-on  and   all  other  men-ons   2.9   (-­‐0.8)   Top  5  Factors  Considered  During  the  Purchase  Occasion   The  child  I  bought  for  loves  moldable  dough,  clay,  or   other  compound   (+1)   Wanted  something  within  a  specific  price  range   (+2)   Wanted  to  replace  or  replenish  exis=ng  moldable  dough,   clay,  or  other  compound  that  was  old,  used  or  dried  out   (+10)   It  was  on  sale   (+1)   I  liked/knew  my  child  would  like  the  fun  theme  of  the   item   (-­‐3)   Pathway 3: Compound Replenishment Incidence  of  Pathway   27%   Whether  Purchase  was  Planned  or  Unplanned   Planned   (-­‐10)   Unplanned   (+10)   26% 26% 21% 20% 17% Brands  Purchased   BRAND   (-­‐7)   Non-­‐BRAND  (Net)   (-­‐3)   81% 27% Products  Purchased    Moldable  dough   (+27)  94% 10%   65%   35%   16% 15% 28% 12% +/-­‐  =  point  difference  vs.  those  not  in   pathway   52% 31% 14% Shopped  with  Others   Shopped  with  someone  else   (+11)   Shopped  with  children  (among  those  who  shopped   with  someone  else)   (+37)   38% 82% %  Conversion=  88%     Planned  10%  vs.  Unplanned   28%   Planned  55%  vs.  Unplanned   45%   Planned  35%  vs.  Unplanned   22%   Planned  8%  vs.  Unplanned   25%   Planned  31%  vs.  Unplanned   22%   Planned  8%  vs.  Unplanned   19%   Ø  Replacing,  replenishing,  and/or  adding  colors  are  cri=cal  decision  factors  in  this  pathway.    Purchases  are  mostly  planned,  but   a  significant  share  are  also  unplanned.    Price  is  an  issue,  as  spend  on  these  occasions  is  low.  Shelf  placement,  eye-­‐catching   displays/packaging,  and  promo=onal  pricing  are  important  for  capturing  the  un-­‐planned  purchases  in  this  pathway.    
  35. 35. Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 35 Average  Actual  Spend  on  Category  Purchase   Size  of  Value   US   $7.30     (-­‐4.00)   14%   France   €  9.60   (-­‐10.20)   6%   Purchase  Occasion   As  a  reward  or  a  treat   (+11)   Other  DisDnguishing  Factors  Considered   Wanted  something  that  could  be  played  by  mul=ple   children  at  a  =me   (+10)   It  caught  your  eye  on  a  shelf  display   (+7)   There  was  a  special  promo=on   (+6)   Average  #  of  men-ons  including  the  first  men-on   and  all  other  men-ons   3.7   (+0.2)   Top  5  Factors  Considered  During  the  Purchase  Occasion   Wanted  something  within  a  specific  price  range   (+21)   Wanted  to  buy  something  to  help  with  my  child's   development   (+13)   It  was  on  sale   (+14)   Wanted  something  that  a  child  could  play  on  his/her   own   (+16)   Wanted  to  buy  moldable  dough  or  clay,  or  some  sort   of  toy  that  is  designed  to  be  used  with  these  or  other   compounds   (+3)   Pathway 5: Impulse Purchase Incidence  of  Pathway   21%   Whether  Purchase  was  Planned  or  Unplanned   Planned   (-­‐41)   Unplanned   (+41)   Brands  Purchased   BRAND   (-­‐1)   Non-­‐BRAND  (Net)   (+1)   86% 30% Products  Purchased   Moldable  dough   (+3)   Basic  Accessories   (-­‐1)   74% 35% 11%   42% 38% 31% 30% 23% 26% +/-­‐  =  point  difference  vs.   those  not  in  pathway   23% 22% 20% 39%   61%   Shopped  with  Others   Shopped  with  someone  else   (+9)   Shopped  with  children  (among  those  who  shopped   with  someone  else)   (+12)   37% 65% %  Conversion=  91%     Ø  Unplanned  purchases  where  dough  or  accessories  are  in  considera=on.    Spend  is  on  the  low  end,  but  higher  than  a   replenishment  purchase.    Being  on  sale,  in  a  specific  price  range,  a  special  promo=on,  or  eye-­‐catching  display  are  all   influen=al  decision  factors.  Purchase  is  oBen  made  as  a  reward  or  treat.  
  36. 36. Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 36 1:  Planned  Expansion Planned  purchases  where  consumer  is  commiLed  to  buying  X   items  –  likely  to  expand  collec=on.    Higher  spend.   4:  Deciders  at  Shelf   A  planned  trip  where  purchasers  are  open  to  all  types  of  products   from  dough  to  playsets  and  seeking  whichever  brand  offers   something  they  like.    Highest  spend. 2:  Playset  Purchase Planned  purchases  where  playsets  are  the  focus.    Driven  by   adver=sing,  child  requests,  and  child  theme  preferences.   3:  Compound  Replenishment   Replacing,  replenishing,  and/or  adding  colors  drive  purchases   which  are  mainly  planned.    In-­‐store  cues  cri=cal  to  capturing   unplanned  segment  of  these  purchases.  Lowest  spend.     5:  Impulse  Purchase   Primarily  unplanned  purchases  where  dough  or  accessories  are  in   considera=on.    In-­‐store  cues  important.    Lower  spend.       20% 17% 37% 12% 14% 42% 29% 19% 5% 6% Size  of  Value  =     Total  Pathway  Spend  (Mean  Spend  *  Share  of  100  Occasions)   Total  Spend  Across  all  Pathways   Size  of  Value  by  Pathway  
  37. 37. Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 37 1:  Planned    Expansion   2:  Playset  Purchase   3:  Compound   Replenishment   4:  Deciders  at    Shelf   5:  Impulse  Purchase   Wal-­‐Mart   (+4)   (-­‐2)   (0)   (+16)   (-­‐7)   Toys  ‘R’  Us   (+12)   (+13)   (+8)   Target   (+6)   (-­‐1)   (+2)   (-­‐6)   (-­‐3)   K-­‐Mart   (+10)   (+9)   Somewhere  else   (-­‐6)   (+6)   (-­‐6)   (+10)   Retailers by Pathway Only  retailers  men-oned  by  10%  or  more  are  shown.   ()  indicate  difference  between  those  within  given  segment  and  those  outside  of  segment.   PP10b.      And  where  did  you  purchase  this  moldable  dough  or  clay,  or  toys  that  are  designed  to  be  used  with  these  or  other  compounds?   37%   25%   23%   34%   19%   17%   21%   48%   22%   12%   11%   28%   15%   17%   24%   32%   25%   17%   12%  
  38. 38. Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 38 1:  Planned    Expansion   2:  Playset  Purchase   3:  Compound   Replenishment   4:  Deciders  at    Shelf   5:  Impulse  Purchase   Toys  ‘R’  Us   (+2)   (+2)   (-­‐8)   (+4)   (-­‐7)   Carrefour   (+1)   (0)   (+1)   (-­‐2)   (0)   Leclerc   (-­‐5)   (-­‐3)   (+13)   (+14)   La  Grande  Recre   (+4)   (+3)   Auchan   (+5)   (+5)   King  Jouet   (+3)   Joue  Club   (+8)   (+5)   Somewhere  else   (+3)   Retailers by Pathway Only  retailers  men-oned  by  10%  or  more  are  shown.   ()  indicate  difference  between  those  within  given  segment  and  those  outside  of  segment.   PP10b.      And  where  did  you  purchase  this  moldable  dough  or  clay,  or  toys  that  are  designed  to  be  used  with  these  or  other  compounds?   20%   14%   10%   11%   10%   20%   14%   10%   17%   11%   15%   25%   10%   22%   12%   11%   13%   14%   12%   14%   25%   14%  
  39. 39. Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 39 Prioritizing the Impact of the Touchpoints Chosen   Newspaper  adver=sement    Magazine  review    On-­‐line  review    Saw  TV  adver=sement    Retailer  website   Personal  recommenda=on   Visited  store    Previous  experience  with  brand  
  40. 40. Jstorey@radius-global.com +447453323623Radius Global EMEA 40 Case Study: Recommended Actions Maximize  the  impact  of   their  packaging  at  shelf  and   their  shelf  displays   Guide  in-­‐store  promo=ons   S=mulate  early  in-­‐season   purchasing  with  coupons   Tac=cs  (in  and  out  of  store)   to  steal  purchases  away   from  compe=tors   †  Insights  from  this  research  are  being  used  in  their  business  planning  to:   Mo=vate  consumers  prior   to  their  shopping  trip   Inform  posi=oning  and   product  strategies  for   different  purchase   occasions  

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