The Bell Curve Meets the S-Curve: The speed of change in learning environments

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  • The Bell Curve Meets the S-Curve: The speed of change in learning environments

    1. 1. The Emergence of The Relationship Economy The New Order of Things to Come The Bell Curve Meets the S-Curve: The speed of change in learning environments
    2. 2. Which curve are you? <ul><li>Educators traditionally understand the bell-curve </li></ul><ul><li>Innovators (and those who follow them) talk more about the S-curve </li></ul>
    3. 3. Bell Curve
    4. 4. S-curve
    5. 5. Acceptance of Innovations <ul><li>Depends on whether you are a(n) </li></ul><ul><li>innovator </li></ul><ul><li>early adopter </li></ul><ul><li>early majority </li></ul><ul><li>late majority </li></ul><ul><li>laggard </li></ul>
    6. 6. Innovators: Venturesome <ul><li>Social networks outside the community </li></ul><ul><li>Control of substantial financial resources </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Help absorb possible losses </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Able to understand and apply complex technical knowledge </li></ul><ul><li>Able to cope with a high degree of uncertainty </li></ul><ul><li>Desire for rash, daring, risky </li></ul><ul><li>Willing to accept occasional setback </li></ul><ul><li>Plays gatekeeper for new information flow </li></ul>
    7. 7. Early adopters: Respect <ul><li>Social network is locally concentrated </li></ul><ul><li>Highest degree of opinion leadership </li></ul><ul><li>Generally sought out by change agents </li></ul><ul><li>Respected by peers, embody success </li></ul><ul><li>Makes judicious innovation decisions </li></ul><ul><li>Shares subjective evaluation </li></ul>
    8. 8. Early majority: Deliberate <ul><li>Interact frequently with peers </li></ul><ul><li>Seldom in position of opinion leadership </li></ul><ul><li>May deliberate before adopting </li></ul>
    9. 9. Late majority: Skeptical <ul><li>Adoption may be </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Economic necessity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Result of peer pressure </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Don’t adopt until others have </li></ul><ul><li>Relatively scarce resources </li></ul><ul><li>Uncertainty must be removed </li></ul>
    10. 10. Laggards: Traditional <ul><li>Near isolates in their social networks </li></ul><ul><li>Past is point of reference </li></ul><ul><li>Suspicious of innovations and change agents </li></ul><ul><li>See resistance as rational </li></ul>
    11. 11. Socioeconomic differentiators <ul><li>Earlier adopters have more formal education </li></ul><ul><li>Earlier adopters have higher social status </li></ul><ul><li>Earlier adopters have more upward mobility </li></ul><ul><li>Earlier adopters are part of larger organizations </li></ul>
    12. 12. Personality distinguishers <ul><li>Earlier adopters have more empathy </li></ul><ul><li>Earlier adopters are less dogmatic </li></ul><ul><li>Earlier adopters handle distractions better </li></ul><ul><li>Earlier adopters have greater rationality </li></ul><ul><li>Earlier adopters have more intelligence </li></ul><ul><li>Earlier adopters are better able to cope with uncertainty and risk </li></ul><ul><li>Earlier adopters are less fatalistic </li></ul><ul><li>Earlier adopters have higher aspirations </li></ul>
    13. 13. Communication behavior <ul><li>Earlier adopters have more social participation </li></ul><ul><li>Earlier adopters are more highly interconnected in their networks </li></ul><ul><li>Earlier adopters have more connection outside their main network </li></ul><ul><li>Earlier adopters have greater exposure to mass media and interpersonal communication channels </li></ul><ul><li>Earlier adopters have a higher degree of opinion leadership </li></ul>
    14. 14. Where are you? <ul><li>Innovators (2.5%) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Venturesome </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Early adopters (13.5%) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Respect </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Early majority (34%) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Deliberate </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Late majority (34&) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Skeptical </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Laggards (16%) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Traditional </li></ul></ul>
    15. 15. Caveats <ul><li>The S-curve is innovation-specific </li></ul><ul><li>The S-curve describes only innovations that are successful (many are not). </li></ul><ul><li>The S-curve is not inevitable. </li></ul>
    16. 16. References <ul><li>Rogers, Everett M. (2003). Diffusion of Innovations (5 th Ed.) . New York: Free Press. </li></ul>
    17. 17. The Emergence of The Relationship Economy The New Order of Things to Come The Bell Curve Meets the S-Curve: The speed of change in learning environments

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