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Domestic Terrorism in the Next Eleven

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  • 1. 9/27/2012 Domestic Terrorism in the “Next Eleven” Carter F. Smith Austin Peay State University The Next Eleven (N-11)• Eleven countries having high potential of becoming, (with BRICs) worlds largest economies – Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey, South Korea, and Vietnam – Criteria were macroeconomic stability, political maturity, openness of trade and investment policies, and quality of education• Follow-up in 2005 to 2003 paper on 4 emerging economies, Brazil, Russia, India, China 1
  • 2. 9/27/2012 2
  • 3. 9/27/2012 3
  • 4. 9/27/2012 Terrorism (DHS/FBI)• activity that involves act dangerous to human life or potentially destructive to critical infrastructure or key resources• violation of criminal laws (of state/country)• appears intended to intimidate or coerce civilian population to influence policy of government by intimidation or coercion• or to affect conduct of government by mass destruction, assassination, or kidnapping Domestic Terrorism (DHS/FBI)• act of violence – dangerous to human life or potentially destructive of critical infrastructure or key resources – committed by a group or individual based – operating entirely within (the country) without direction or inspiration from foreign terrorist group.• domestic terrorist differs from homegrown violent extremist – former not inspired by and does not take direction from a foreign terrorist group/other foreign power. 4
  • 5. 9/27/2012 the “Next Eleven” Bangladesh• Least developed countries• Low-income economy• Medium human development• Frontier market• Third most populated Muslim country (90% of residents Islamic) 5
  • 6. 9/27/2012 Terror in Bangladesh Terrorism in BangladeshDT• Achik National Volunteer Council• All Tripura Tiger Force• Borok National Council of Tripura• United Achik National FrontHVE• al-Qaeda• United National Liberation Front• Revolutionary Peoples Front 6
  • 7. 9/27/2012• Achik National Volunteer Council • National Liberation Front of (ANVC) Tripura (NLFT)• All Tripura Tiger Force (ATTF) • Parbatya Chattagram Jana• al-Qaeda Sanghati Samity (PCJSS)• Borok National Council of Tripura • Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) (BNCT) • Peoples Revolutionary Party of• Harakat ul-Jihad-i- Kangleipak (PREPAK) Islami/Bangladesh (HUJI-B) • Purbo Banglar Communist Party• Hikmatul Zihad (PBCP)• Islami Chhatra Shibir (ICS) • Revolutionary Peoples Front• Islamic Shashantantra Andolon (RPF) (ISA) • United Achik National Front• Jagrata Muslim Janata • United National Liberation Front Bangladesh (UNLF)• Jamatul Mujahedin Bangladesh • United Peoples Democratic Front• Kamtapur Liberation Organization (UPDF) Terrorist Outfits • Harkat-ul-Jihad-al Islami Bangladesh (HuJI-B) • Jagrata Muslim Janata Bangladesh (JMJB) • Jamaatul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) • Purba Bangla Communist Party (PBCP) Extremist Groups • Islami Chhatra Shibir (ICS) 7
  • 8. 9/27/2012 Egypt• Lower-middle-income economy• Medium human development• Secondary Emerging market• Regime in transition• G20 developing nation• Most populated Arab country (80.5M) – Majority Islamic Terror in Egypt 8
  • 9. 9/27/2012 Terrorism in EgyptDT• Egypt’s Revolution• al-Gamaa al-Islamiyya• Islamic Liberation OrganizationHVE• al-Qaeda• Battalion of the Martyr Abdullah Azzam• Egyptian Islamic Jihad• Moroccan Islamic Combatant Group Terrorism in Egypt (cont)OTH/Religious• Takfir wa Hijra – operates only in the country – religiously based – targets secular institutions 9
  • 10. 9/27/2012• al-Gamaa al-Islamiyya (GAI)• al-Qaeda• Battalion of the Martyr Abdullah Azzam• Egyptian Islamic Jihad (EIJ)• Egypts Revolution• International Justice Group• Islamic Glory Brigades in the Land of the Nile• Islamic Liberation Organization• Jordanian National Liberation Movement• Moroccan Islamic Combatant Group• Takfir wa Hijra• Tawhid Islamic Brigades Indonesia• Upper-middle-income economy• Medium human development• Secondary Emerging market• Flawed democracy• G-20 major economies• APEC founding member• Most practice moderate Islam, Radical growing 10
  • 11. 9/27/2012 Terror in Indonesia Terrorism in Indonesia• Jemaah Islamiyah 11
  • 12. 9/27/2012• Anti-Communist Command• Aum Shinrikyo / Aleph• Free Aceh Movement (GAM)• Free Papua Movement (OPM)• Front for Defenders of Islam• Jemaah Islamiya (JI)• Komando Jihad (Indonesian)• Kumpulan Mujahidin Malaysia (KMM)• Laskar Jihad• Mujahideen Division Khandaq• Mujahideen KOMPAK• Nusantara Islamic Jihad Forces• South Maluku Republic (RMS) Iran• Upper-middle-income economy• High human development, authoritarian Islamic Republic• OPEC and GECF founding member• ECO member 12
  • 13. 9/27/2012 Terror in Iran Terrorism in Iran• Ahl-e-Sunna Wal Jamaat• Al-Qaeda• Hamas• Hexbollah• Jundallah• Peoples Mujahedin of Iran• Taliban 13
  • 14. 9/27/2012• al-Ahwaz Arab Peoples • Group of the Martyrs Democratic Front Mostafa Sadeki and Ali• al-Qaeda Zadeh• Arab Struggle Movement • Guardsmen of Islam for the Liberation of Ahvaz • Islamic Action in Iraq• Arbav Martyrs of • Islamic Action Organization Khuzestan • Islamic Movement of• Armed Youth of Cherikha- Uzbekistan (IMU) ye Fadayee • Jund Allah Organization for• Committee of Solidarity the Sunni Mujahideen in with Arab and Middle East Iran Political Prisoners (CSPPA) • Movement of Islamic• Fedayeen Khalq (Peoples Action of Iraq Commandos) • Peykar• Generation of Arab Fury • Shahin Mexico• Upper-middle-income economy• High human development• OECD member• Advanced Emerging market• G-20 major economies• G8+5 member• NAFTA, APEC member• EAS founding member 14
  • 15. 9/27/2012 Terror in Mexico Terrorism in Mexico• Popular Revolutionary Army 15
  • 16. 9/27/2012• 23rd of September Communist League• Armed Communist League• Comando Internacionalista Simon Bolivar• Comando Jaramillista Morelense 23 de Mayo• EZLN• Group of Guerilla Combatants of Jose Maria Morelos y Pavon (CGNJMMP)• Justice Army of Defenseless People (EJPI)• Mara Salvatruchas• Movimiento Armado Nacionalista Organizacion (MANO)• Peoples Revolutionary Armed Forces (FRAP)• Popular Revolutionary Army• Revolutionary Armed Forces of the People (FARP)• Revolutionary Worker Clandestine Union of the People Party• United Popular Liberation Army of America Nigeria• Lower-middle-income economy• Medium human development• Frontier market• Flawed Democracy• AU member• OPEC member• Developing 8 Countries• Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) member 16
  • 17. 9/27/2012 Terror in Nigeria Terrorism in NigeriaDT• HisbaHVE• Boko Haram (Jama’atul Alhul Sunnah Lidda’wati wal Jihad) 17
  • 18. 9/27/2012• Hisba• Iduwini Youths• Movement for Democracy and Development (MDD)• Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND)• Odua Peoples Congress Pakistan• Lower-middle-income economy• Medium human development• Secondary Emerging market• Hybrid Regime• Almost 95% of citizens devout Muslims 18
  • 19. 9/27/2012 Terror in Pakistan Terrorism in PakistanDT • Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ)• Tehreek-e-Taliban • Sipah-e-Mohammed Pakistan (TTP) Pakistan (SMP)• Lashkar-e-Omar (LeO) OTH• Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e- • Jamaat ul-Fuqra (JF) Shariat-e-Mohammadi • Nadeem Commando (NC), (TNSM) • Popular Front for ArmedHVE Resistance (PFAR)• Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan • Muslim United Army (SSP). (MuA)• Tehreek-e-Jaferia Pakistan • Harkat-ul-Mujahideen Al- (TJP) alami 19
  • 20. 9/27/2012 • 313 • Harkat ul-Ansar • al-Arifeen • Hizb-I Islami Gulbuddin (HIG) • al-Badr • Hizbul Mujahideen (HM) • al-Barq • Islami Inqilabi Mahaz • al-Fuqra • Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan • al-Islambouli Brigades of al-Qaeda (IMU) • al-Madina • Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) • al-Mansoorain • Jamiat ul-Mujahedin (JuM) • al-Nawaz • Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) • al-Qaeda • Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) • al-Qanoon • Lashkar-I-Omar • al-Umar Mujahideen • Mohajir Qami Movement-Haqiqi • al-Zulfikar (MQM-H) • Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) • Muslim United Army • Black December • Muttahida Qami Movement (MQM) • Harakat ul-Jihad-i-Islami (HUJI) • National Movement for the Restoration of Pakistani Sovereignty • Harakat ul-Mujahidin (HuM) • Sipah-e-Sahaba/Pakistan (SSP)• Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) • Al Badr • Al Mustafa Liberation Fighters• Lashkar-e-Omar (LeO) • Jamait-ul-Mujahideen (JuM) • Tehrik-e-Jehad-e-Islami• Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP) • Lashkar-e-Jabbar (LeJ) • Muslim Mujahideen• Tehreek-e-Jaferia Pakistan (TJP) • Harkat-ul-Jehad-al-Islami(HUJI) • Al Mujahid Force• Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e- • Muttahida Jehad Council (MJC) • Tehrik-e-Jehad Mohammadi(TNSM) • Al Barq • Islami Inquilabi Mahaz• Lashkar-eJhangvi (LeJ) • Tehrik-ul-Mujahideen • Al-Rashid Trust• Sipah-e-Muhammad Pakistan • Al Jehad • Al-Akhtar Trust (SMP) • Jammu & Kashir National • Rabita Trust• Jamaat-ul-Fuqra Liberation Army • Ummah Tamir-e-Nau• Nadeem Commando • People’s League• Popular Front for Armed • Muslim Janbaz Force Resistance • Kashmir Jehad Force• Muslim United Army • Al Jehad Force (combines Muslim• Harkat-ul-Mujahideen Al- Janbaz Force and Kashmir Jehad alami(HuMA) Force)• Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HM) • Al Umar Mujahideen• Harkat-ul-Ansar (HuA, presently • Mahaz-e-Azadi known as Harkat-ul Mujahideen) • Islami Jamaat-e-Tulba• Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) • Jammu & Kashmir Students• Jaish-e-Mohammad Mujahideen E- Liberation Front Tanzeem (JeM) • Ikhwan-ul-Mujahideen• Harkat-ul Mujahideen (HuM, • Islamic Students League previously known as Harkat-ul- Ansar) • Tehrik-e-Hurriat-e-Kashmir • Tehrik-e-Nifaz-e-Fiqar Jafaria 20
  • 21. 9/27/2012 Philippines• Lower-middle-income economy• Medium human development• Secondary Emerging market• Flawed democracy• Most are Catholic Terror in the Philippines 21
  • 22. 9/27/2012 Terrorism in the PhilippinesDT• Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF)• Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF)• Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG)• New Peoples Army (NPA)• Abdurajak Janjalani Brigade (AJB)• Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG)• Alex Boncayao Brigade (ABB)• al-Qaeda• Free Vietnam Revolutionary Group• Indigenous Peoples Federal Army (IPFA)• Jemaah Islamiya (JI)• Kabataang Makabayan (KM)• Kumpulan Mujahidin Malaysia (KMM)• Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF)• Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF)• New Peoples Army (NPA)• Peoples Revolutionary Front (Philippines)• Rajah Solaiman Movement• Rebolusyonaryong Hukbong Bayan (RHB)• Taong Bayan at Kawal 22
  • 23. 9/27/2012 Turkey• Upper-middle-income economy• High human development, democracy• OECD founding member• Advanced Emerging market• G-20 major economies• EU Customs Union• ECO member• EU associate member• Developing 8 Countries Terror in Turkey 23
  • 24. 9/27/2012 Terrorism in Turkey DT • Kurdistan Freedom and Democracy Congress (PKK-KONGRA GEL, formerly Kurdistan Workers Party [PKK]) • Turkish Hizballah (Party of God) • Revolutionary People’s Liberation Party/Front (DHKP/C or Dev-Sol)• 28 May Armenian Organization • Moroccan Islamic Combatant• al-Qaeda Group• Apos Revenge Hawks • Nationalist Kurdish Revenge• Apos Youth Revenge Brigades Teams• Black Friday • Peoples Liberation Army of Kurdistan (ARGK)• Communist Workers Movement • PKK/KONGRA-GEL• DHKP/C • TKEP/L• HPG • TKP/ML-TIKKO• Iraqi Liberation Army • Turkish Hezbollah• Islamic Great Eastern Raiders • Turkish Islamic Jihad Front• Islamic International • Turkish Peoples Liberation Peacekeeping Brigade (IIPB) Army (TPLA)• June 16 Organization • Turkish Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF) (THKP-C)• Kurdish Islamic Unity Party• Kurdish Patriotic Union• Kurdistan Freedom Hawks• Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK)• Mahir Cayan Suicide Group 24
  • 25. 9/27/2012 South Korea• Advanced economy (both CIA and IMF), High- income economy• Very High human development, High-income OECD member, Developed market• 90% of households have high speed internet Terror in South Korea 25
  • 26. 9/27/2012 Terrorism in South Korea• Dawatul Islamia of Korea• MWL• IIRO• WAMY• JEIB (not listed, on search, only reference – no presence)• Anarchist Faction• Revolutionary Army• Aum Shinrikyo / Aleph• Black Panthers• Kenkoku Giyugun Chosen Seibatsutai• Sekihotai• Usd Allah 26
  • 27. 9/27/2012 Vietnam• Lower-middle-income economy• Fast emerging• Medium human development• Frontier market• Authoritarian regime• APEC member• EAS founding member. Terror in Vietnam 27
  • 28. 9/27/2012• Free Vietnam Revolutionary Group SummaryTerrorism Threat No Terrorism Threat• Bangladesh, Egypt, • South Korea Indonesia, Iran, • Vietnam Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey 28
  • 29. 9/27/2012 Timeline1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Bangladesh Philippines PhilippinesVietnam South Korea Turkey Mexico Indonesia Iran South Korea Pakistan Pakistan Iran Egypt Nigeria South Korea Iran South Korea Turkey Philippines Vietnam Indonesia Bangladesh 29