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USING CENSUS INFORMATION TO DETECT
CHILDREN IN BARRACKS
THE CASES OF COLOMBIA AND HONDURAS
Carlos Guti´rrez
e

April 12, 2...
Introduction (1)

Usually governments try information about military as a top secret
issue. It difficults the citizens contr...
Introduction (2)

Is this information trustworthy? We do not know, but what
we are sure is that it is official.
In what foll...
The problem

It is kown that a census provide information about the whole
population of a country.
In some cases, by means...
The method (1)

Key idea: Assuming that the distribution of children in
barracks has the same characteristics that the dis...
The method (2)

Together with seminaries, prisons, orphanages and others, barracks
belong to collective housing.
Total pop...
Graphical exploration can be useful!
(Colombia’s census 2005)

Figure : Underaged in families (above) and barracks (below)
Graphical approach (2)

By comparing both plots it is clear that at barracks there are
more 17 aged children than expected...
Chi-square test of goodness-of-fit
(Data from Colombia’s census 2005)
Age group
0-5
6 - 12
13 - 17
Total

Proportion in fam...
Chi-square test (2)
If the probability is larger than 5%, then we conclude that
there is not enough evidence to consider c...
Male ratio (1)
(From Hodura’s census 2001)
Children living in:
Families
Barracks

Sex
Men
Women
1508097 1461463
239
133

T...
Male ratio (2)

’Male ratio’ or ’Sex ratio’ is a measurement that can
summarize the most important.
Male ratio =

number o...
Confidence interval for the male ratio (1)

Here the results are obvious. Even when there are no doubts
it is recommendable...
Confidence interval for the male ratio (2)

The confidence interval for the male ratio can be obtained by
using the followin...
Confidence interval for the male ratio (3)

In the previous example:
exp log(1.8) + √

1.96
372 ∗ 0.64 ∗ 0.36

In this case...
The more information, the better!!!

Barracks
from:

17 years
old

Women at
barracks

Mothers from
12 to 49

Colombia
Boya...
Final remarks
Censuses can be public (and cheap) sources of information
about population in barracks.
Results can back-up ...
Thanks for your time
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USING CENSUS INFORMATION TO DETECT CHILDREN IN BARRACKS. THE CASES OF COLOMBIA AND HONDURAS

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Censuses may be public (and cheap) sources of information
about population in barracks. Here we will show some examples related with children in barracks from Colombia and Honduras.

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Transcript of "USING CENSUS INFORMATION TO DETECT CHILDREN IN BARRACKS. THE CASES OF COLOMBIA AND HONDURAS"

  1. 1. USING CENSUS INFORMATION TO DETECT CHILDREN IN BARRACKS THE CASES OF COLOMBIA AND HONDURAS Carlos Guti´rrez e April 12, 2013
  2. 2. Introduction (1) Usually governments try information about military as a top secret issue. It difficults the citizens control over their rights and their taxes. However, certain kind of information is available through: Politicians who use their charges to obtain data, specific organizations that do lobby before governmental authorities, independent reports that arise data by means of interviews, surveys, individual cases and... Population censuses on line!!!!.
  3. 3. Introduction (2) Is this information trustworthy? We do not know, but what we are sure is that it is official. In what follows, three examples about the use of censuses to obtain information about children in barracks are introduced. Of course, other subjects can be considered (ethnic groups at barracks or displaced people among others). Everything depends on our interest and the data at hand.
  4. 4. The problem It is kown that a census provide information about the whole population of a country. In some cases, by means of a census it is also possible to obtain information about the barracks’ population. Suppose that we find in a census that there are children in barracks. Are they recruited or are they just the children of the military who live with their families in or next to the barrack?
  5. 5. The method (1) Key idea: Assuming that the distribution of children in barracks has the same characteristics that the distribution of children who live within their families. In other words, we are assuming that children in barracks live with their families. We only conclude that this assumption is not plausible if we find enough evidence against it.
  6. 6. The method (2) Together with seminaries, prisons, orphanages and others, barracks belong to collective housing. Total population=Private housing (families)+Collective housing Private housing (families)=Total population—Collective housing We are going to compare people under 18 years living in Private housing (families) vrs barracks Source: Redatam website: http://www.eclac.cl/redatam/
  7. 7. Graphical exploration can be useful! (Colombia’s census 2005) Figure : Underaged in families (above) and barracks (below)
  8. 8. Graphical approach (2) By comparing both plots it is clear that at barracks there are more 17 aged children than expected if they would belong to a family from Colombias’ population. Many times such a disaggregated data is not available and it makes harder graphical comparisons. Furthermore, formal test can complement exploratory analysis. Then other techniques are required.
  9. 9. Chi-square test of goodness-of-fit (Data from Colombia’s census 2005) Age group 0-5 6 - 12 13 - 17 Total Proportion in families 0.27 0.34 0.39 1 Frequency in barracks 233 243 497 973 Table : Distribution of children in families and barracks by age group This test indicates how probable is to find the age structure of children from barracks if they were truly members of a family from the Colombian population by comparing the expected distribution (proportion in families) against the observed distribution (frequency in barracks). in advance a 5% significance level is chosen .
  10. 10. Chi-square test (2) If the probability is larger than 5%, then we conclude that there is not enough evidence to consider children from the barracks as different from children of the population who live with their families. If the probability is smaller than 5%, we conclude that the age structure of children in barracks is different from the population of children living within families. In other words, if they were not living with their families, then they could be recruited. In this case we found that the probability is less than 0.01%. Most of the free statistical software’s can carry out this test. (There are also available on-line calculators!!!!)
  11. 11. Male ratio (1) (From Hodura’s census 2001) Children living in: Families Barracks Sex Men Women 1508097 1461463 239 133 Table : Location of children controlled by sex Some times it is possible to obtain more than one variable from the censuses. Here we are going to use age and sex by comparing children in barracks and children from Honduras’ families.
  12. 12. Male ratio (2) ’Male ratio’ or ’Sex ratio’ is a measurement that can summarize the most important. Male ratio = number of men number of women Note also that if the number of women and men were the same, the male ratio would be 1. The male ratio of Honduras’ families members under 18 years is 1508097 = 1.03, which means that there are 0.03 ( or 3%) 1461463 more men than women in this age group. The male ratio of Honduras’ population under 18 years at barracks is 239 = 1.8, in words, there are 0.8 (or 80%) more 133 men than women.
  13. 13. Confidence interval for the male ratio (1) Here the results are obvious. Even when there are no doubts it is recommendable to report confidence intervals for the male ratio of children in barracks. If the confidence interval of the male ratio of children in barracks contains the male ratio of the population (1.03), we conclude that there is not enough evidence to claim that children in barracks are different from children living with their families in the national population. Otherwise, our conclusion is that children in barracks cannot be explained by children living with their families.
  14. 14. Confidence interval for the male ratio (2) The confidence interval for the male ratio can be obtained by using the following formula: exp log(male ratio) + Where p = 1.96 (women + men) ∗ p ∗ (1 − p) men (women+men) The expression under the square root is the standard error of the logarithm of the male ratio. The number 1.96 is the value of the normal distribution that corresponds to the 0,025 X 2 = 0,05 = 5% significance level.
  15. 15. Confidence interval for the male ratio (3) In the previous example: exp log(1.8) + √ 1.96 372 ∗ 0.64 ∗ 0.36 In this case the confidence interval for the male ratio is between 1.45 and 2.22, which does not contain the male ratio of the population of children in families (1.03). Despite it seems cumbersome, it can be worked out by means of paper, pencil and a pocket calculator!!!
  16. 16. The more information, the better!!! Barracks from: 17 years old Women at barracks Mothers from 12 to 49 Colombia Boyac´ a 342 53 1873 16 468 5 Boyac´a SogamosoRural zone 48 0 0 Seventeen agers Mothers 342 468 =0.73 53 5 =10.6 48 0 = ??? The table above shows different variables from the town of Sogamoso, in the province of Boyac´, Colombia (2005). a Data about number of children that were 17 years old, number of women, number of mothers, detailed by country, province, town and rural zone provided a lot of meaningful information. Seventeen year old children in barracks of the rural zone of Sogamosos cannot be assigned to families.
  17. 17. Final remarks Censuses can be public (and cheap) sources of information about population in barracks. Results can back-up individual cases of recruitment of children and neutralize the argument of isolated cases that authorities like to use. To check which kind of information is available one can consult the questionnaires (most are posted on the web). Not always data about barracks is available (for example, Venezuela, Chile and Per´). u Information about children in non-governmental armed groups is harder to obtain. Other strategies must be employed.
  18. 18. Thanks for your time
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