INTEGRACIÓN ECONÓMICA REGIONAL EN EL CASO DE LA ALIANZA DEL PACÍFICO: EL ROL DE LATINOAMÉRICA EN LA GLOBALIZACIÓNLa VISION DEL PERU
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INTEGRACIÓN ECONÓMICA REGIONAL EN EL CASO DE LA ALIANZA DEL PACÍFICO: EL ROL DE LATINOAMÉRICA EN LA GLOBALIZACIÓN La VISION DEL PERU

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En el Seminario sobre la Alianza del Pacifico, Fundacion Konrad Adenauer, Santiago de Chile, 2 de junio 2014 ...

En el Seminario sobre la Alianza del Pacifico, Fundacion Konrad Adenauer, Santiago de Chile, 2 de junio 2014


Carlos Aquino Rodriguez

Professor, San Marcos National University

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INTEGRACIÓN ECONÓMICA REGIONAL EN EL CASO DE LA ALIANZA DEL PACÍFICO: EL ROL DE LATINOAMÉRICA EN LA GLOBALIZACIÓNLa VISION DEL PERU INTEGRACIÓN ECONÓMICA REGIONAL EN EL CASO DE LA ALIANZA DEL PACÍFICO: EL ROL DE LATINOAMÉRICA EN LA GLOBALIZACIÓN La VISION DEL PERU Presentation Transcript

  • INTEGRACIÓN ECONÓMICA REGIONAL EN EL CASO DE LA ALIANZA DEL PACÍFICO: EL ROL DE LATINOAMÉRICA EN LA GLOBALIZACIÓN LA VISION DEL PERU En el Seminario sobre la Alianza del Pacifico, Fundacion Konrad Adenauer, Santiago de Chile, 2 de junio 2014 Carlos Aquino Rodriguez Professor, San Marcos National University E-mail: carloskobe2005@yahoo.com Website, Facebook, Blog, Linked in
  • Index • I. Introduction • II. Objectives and Benefits of the Pacific Alliance (PA) • III. Why the PA could work when other Latin American schemes have failed? • IV. Challenges of the PA • V. Peru situation in the PA and challenges ahead • VI. Conclusions
  • I. Introduction • Established in June 6, 2012 when the Presidents of Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Peru signed the Pacific Alliance Framework Agreement, in the fourth Summit of the Pacific Alliance in Chile, this block constitute 35% of Latin America GDP, its economic size is around US$2.2 trillion. They have a combined population of 209 million, 36% of Latin America, with a GDP per capita of US$10,000. • They account for 50% of trade in the region, with exports of US$556 billion and imports of US$551 billion in 2012. They represent 26% of investments flows in Latin America. • The Pacific Alliance raises great interest and has many members’ observer states, and from Asia there are five: China, Japan, Korea, Australia and New Zealand.
  • II. Objectives and Benefits of the Pacific Alliance (PA) • The objectives are: • “To construct, in a participatory and consensual manner, an area of profound market-driven economic integration that will contribute to the free movement of goods, services, capital and persons. • To promote the growth, development and competitiveness of the Parties’ economies, with the objective of achieving greater welfare and overcoming socioeconomic inequalities. • To become a platform for economic and commercial integration as well as political coordination with global outreach, particularly towards the Asia Pacific.”
  • • The PA seeks to achieve: • In the field of trade and integration, the elimination of tariffs, reach agreement on rules of origin, technical barriers to trade, sanitary and phytosanitary measures, trade facilitation, and customs cooperation. It should be noted that elimination of duties on 92% of products have already been achieved. • Services and capital, seeks agreement on themes of e-commerce, investment negotiations, cross-border trade in services, telecommunications, air and maritime transport. The unification of stock exchange is also in agenda. Already the stock exchanges of Lima, Santiago and Bogota are linked together in the MILA scheme. • Cooperation, the platform for students and academic mobility, the network for scientific research on climate change, medium and small enterprises, physical interconnection, and the mutual cooperation fund • Movement of business People and Facilitation of Migration
  • • The main achievements of PA are said to be: • “- Elimination of the visa requirement for Colombian and Peruvian nationals travelling to Mexico to undertake remunerated activities for up to 180 days. • - Establishment of the Platform for academic and student mobility. • - Creation of the Pacific Alliance Business Council, with the objective of promoting the Pacific Alliance, as well as make issue recommendations and suggestions for improved integration • - Coordination among the four trade promotion agencies of the Pacific Alliance (ProMexico, Promperu, ProChile and Proexport) for joint activities.”
  • III. Why the PA could work when other Latin American schemes have failed? • The members of the PA share some common characteristics that could help them work better and succeed where other attempts of economic integration in the region has failed or not advanced much. • First, PA countries have similar political systems, democratic institutions. • Second, they are more or less open economies, especially Chile, Peru and Mexico, and Colombia is following closely. • Third, they share an interest in having close relationship with Asian countries, the region with the fastest economic growth in the world. Most of them have already FTA agreements with several Asian Countries. Here Chile and Peru are ahead of Colombia and Mexico (Colombia and Mexico has a bigger manufacturing base that they try protect from foreign competition).
  • IV. Challenges of the PA • For the PA scheme to succeed it would be necessary • First, improvement in infrastructure is needed. Connectivity is a problem. Ports, airports, Roads, Telecommunications networks are still insufficient in several places. Second, a more educated workforce is needed, to attract investment in manufacture. • Second, more direct transportation links to Asia is needed, with more shipping and airline connections. • Third, more efforts to promote the country’s image and increase its trade, tourism, and investment in Asia is needed. • Fourth, a kind of policy to promote the production of more value added goods to export to Asia or among them is needed. Formation of a regional value chain, as seen in the East Asia region for example, is needed.
  • V. Peru situation in the PA and challenges ahead – V. 1 Peru trade with PA members • Trade with PA countries accounted for 9% of Peru´s total trade in the year 2013. Around 8.2% of Peru´s total exports went to the three countries, and 10.6% of Peru´s imports come from them. Chile is the biggest trade partner, with nearly US$3 billion of trade. Peru has a trade deficit of US$1.19 billion with PA countries, of which US$1.3 billion was with Mexico, US$628 million with Colombia, but a trade surplus with Chile of US$ 340 million. • Chile was the seventh most important export market for Peru in 2013. In the import side Mexico was the fifth most important source. • Peru mainly exports primary goods to its partners in PA (but with increasing exports of more value added goods, especially to Colombia) and import from them mostly manufactured goods. Below are the main products that Peru exports to and imports from them.
  • PRODUCT Millions of Dollars FOB value Total 1,666 Copper ores and concentrates 378 Molybdenum 178 Oil 122 Fishmeal 92 Sulfuric acid 87 Ceramic tile 60 Kerosene type jet fuel 41 Fish fat and oils 30 Other bars in other hot steel 27 Vehicles for transport of more than 16 persons 27 Kerosene 20 TABLE 1: TOP 11 PRODUCTS EXPORTED TO CHILE, 2013 Source: ADUANAS DEL PERU http://www.aduanet.gob.pe/aduanas/informae/XPaisPartMensual_01122013.
  • PRODUCT Millions of Dollars FOB value Total 837 Refined copper wire 118 Other polymer plates of polypropylene 31 Other gasoline without lead tetraethyl 29 Cylinder preformas 23 Unroasted coffee, decaffeinated 23 Kerosene type jet fuel 22 Rice milled or wholly milled 22 Unalloyed zinc 20 Print advertising and similar commercial catalog 20 Other unalloyed zinc 15 Undenatured ethyl alcohol 15 TABLE 2: TOP 11 PRODUCTS EXPORTED TO COLOMBIA, 2013 Source: ADUANAS DEL PERU http://www.aduanet.gob.pe/aduanas/informae/XPaisPartMensual_01122013.
  • PRODUCT Millions of Dollars FOB value Total 507 Natural gas, liquid 209 Kerosene type jet fuel 30 Natural calcium phosphates 29 The other paprika 14 Radial tire used in passenger car and racing 12 Wood nut 9 Cuttlefish and squid 5 Mobile Phones 5 Bulldozers 5 Other plywood of Bamboo 5 Other polymer plates of polypropylene 4 TABLE 3: TOP 11 PRODUCTS EXPORTED TO MEXICO, 2013 Source: ADUANAS DEL PERU http://www.aduanet.gob.pe/aduanas/informae/XPaisPartMensual_01122013.htm
  • PRODUCT Millions of Dollars FOB value Total 1,742 Other TV sets 273 Road tractors 174 Other motor vehicles with piston 88 Digital process units 85 Shampoos 52 Mobile Phones 49 Portland cement 29 Diesel vehicles for freight load 29 Washing machines 25 Polyvinyl chloride, not mixed with others substance 24 TABLE 4: TOP 10 PRODUCTS IMPORTED FROM MEXICO, 2013 Source: ADUANAS DEL PERU http://www.aduanet.gob.pe/aduanas/informae/XPaisPartMensual_01122013.htm
  • PRODUCT Millions of Dollars FOB value Total 1,411 Crude oil 229 Sugar 64 Polypropylene, in primary forms 49 Bituminous coal 32 Perfumes 36 Other drugs for human use 32 Tampons 25 Other motor vehicles with piston 23 Toilet soap 22 Other rigid tubes 19 TABLE 5: TOP 10 PRODUCTS IMPORTED FROM COLOMBIA, 2013 Source: ADUANAS DEL PERU http://www.aduanet.gob.pe/aduanas/informae/MPaisPartMensual_01122013.htm
  • PRODUCT Millions of Dollars FOB value Total 1,273 Ammonium nitrate for mining use 58 Chemistry a la past soda or sulphate, bleached or 34 Other papers and cardboards 34 Parts of machines and apparatus of tariff heading 84.74 32 Other woods sawn or chipped 29 Newsprint in rolls or sheets 29 Mackerel, frozen 28 Malta unroasted 26 Fresh apples 26 Other preparation of tariff heading 210690290 27 TABLE 6: TOP 10 PRODUCTS IMPORTED FROM CHILE, 2013 Source: ADUANAS DEL PERU http://www.aduanet.gob.pe/aduanas/informae/MPaisPartMensual_01122013.htm
  • – V.2 Peru trade with Asian countries • One of the aims of the PA is to increase its trade with Asian countries, the region with the highest economic growth rates since many years ago. Peru in the 1990`s decided to put emphasis in its relationship with these countries. In 1998 Peru became a member of APEC forum, and from the last decade FTA agreements were signed with several of them. In 2010 it was with China, in the year 2011 with Korea and in 2012 with Japan. • Peru trade with Asia has increased specially from the last decade. Exports of primary goods, minerals and fishmeal, has leaped to the point that China become Peru biggest export destination and trade partner three years ago (2011).
  • COUNTRY 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 Exports Imports Exports Imports Exports Import s Exports Imports 1. U.S.A 6,087 5,811 5,903 7,350 6,175 7,916 7,306 8,783 1. China 5,436 5,140 6,963 6,325 7,848 7,802 7,331 8,379 1. Japan 1,790 1,336 2,174 1,314 2,575 1,499 2,226 1,433 1. Canada 3,329 539 4,232 583 3,445 588 2,692 615 1. Switzerl and 3,845 118 5,937 150 5,074 154 2,967 158 TABLE 7: MAJOR TRADE PARTNERS OF PERU, 2010-2013, IN MILLION OF DOLLARS Source: Aduanas del Peru: http://www.aduanet.gob.pe/aduanas/informae/BalContiZonaPais_01122013.htm
  • Country/Econo my 1993 1997 2003 2010 2011 2012 2013 World Total 3,344.40 6,741.75 8,939.82 35,073.25 46,386.03 45,846.18 41,511.7 Australia 14.99 16.31 53.12 117.5 115.35 99.50 130.37 South Korea 59.36 91.50 176.34 894.9 1,696.09 1,545.35 1,536.38 China 140.84 490.06 676.96 5,425.9 6,972.64 7,848.97 7,331.44 Philippines 31.99* 47.96 11.06 123.41 109.75 55.23 128.11 Hong-Kong 28.60 68.82 30.31 78.5 93.24 96.54 84.22 Indonesia 32.62* 36.33 22.67 36.61 61.49 101.18 105.31 Japan 299.04 473.57 391.16 1,790.4 2,174.76 2,575.33 2,226.72 Malaysia 57.33* 59.77 5.51 8.43 6.75 27.68 56.29 New Zealand 1.50 - 3.72 13.5 18.63. 25.82 22.55 Russia 9.90 9.48 14.18 57.9 78.80 88.43 149.76 Singapore 1.68* 11.96* 16.15 6.66 7.94 21.46 20.18 Thailand 11.71* 36.23 26.71 98.10 264.76 234.06 138.25 Taiwan (Chinese Taipei) 118.78 159.11 147.28 293.0 365.28 261.10 211.29 Vietnam 1.62* 2.56 10.64 63.89 77.72 90.43 44.80 TABLE 8: PERU EXPORTS TO ASIAN MEMBERS OF APEC (IN MILLION OF DOLLARS) (FOB VALUE) *Year1994 Source: Aduanas del Perú: http://www.aduanet.gob.pe/aduanas/informae/2012/generales/ExpoImpoPorContiZonaPais.html http://www.aduanet.gob.pe/aduanas/informae/BalContiZonaPais_01122013.htm PROMPERUSTAT http://www.siicex.gob.pe/promperustat/frmRanking_x_Pais.aspx (For data before the year 2000)
  • PRODUCT Millions of Dollars FOB value Total 7,331 Copper ores and concentrates 3,338 Copper cathodes 1,020 Fishmeal 856 Iron ore 855 Zinc ore 203 Lead ore 195 Silver ore 182 Zinc, not alloyed 100 Cuttlefish and squid 91 Other gasoline without lead tetraethyl 58 Fresh grapes 45 TABLE 9: TOP 11 PRODUCTS EXPORTED TO CHINA, 2013 Ores and Fishmeal (8 products): 92% of total Source: ADUANAS DEL PERU http://www.aduanet.gob.pe/aduanas/informae/XPaisPartMensual_01122013.htm
  • PRODUCT Millions of dollars CIF Value Total 7,921 Mobile Phones 730 Data processing machine 459 Motorcycles 136 Vehicles 111 Telecommunications devices 98 Other polyethylene terephthalate with titanium dioxide 84 Other footwear with top of textile and rubber sole or plastic 84 Other footwear 80 Other wind power generators 69 Other TV sets 76 TABLE 10: TOP 10 PRODUCTS IMPORTED FROM CHINA, 2013 Source: ADUANAS DEL PERU: http://www.aduanet.gob.pe/aduanas/informae/MPaisPartMensual_01122013
  • – V.3 Investment from PA countries • By the end of December 2013 Peru has a balance of US$22.6 billion of Foreign Direct Investment, FDI. Countries from the PA are among the major investors. Chile is in fifth place, Colombia is in the seventh and Mexico in tenth place. Most of FDI in Peru are in the Mining (23.9% of total), Finance (18.6%), Communications (17.3%), Industry (13.7%) and Energy (12.1%) sectors. These five sectors account for 85.6% of the FDI in Peru.
  • COUNTRY 2013* UNITED KINGDOM 4,459.1 SPAIN 4,317.6 USA 3,167.7 THE NETHERLANDS 1,532.8 CHILE 1,422.1 BRAZIL 1,169.5 COLOMBIA 1,067.8 PANAMA 937.3 CANADA 853.5 MEXICO 476.8 SWITZERLAND 455.0 SINGAPORE 365.5 LUXEMBURG 272.4 JAPAN 238.4 FRANCE 220.5 CHINA 208.1 GRAND TOTAL 22,614.7 TABLE 11: DIRECT FOREIGN INVESTMENT BALANCE AS CAPITAL CONTRIBUTION, BY COUNTRY OF DOMICILE, (IN MILLIONS OF US$) *Stock updated until December 2013 Source: Proinversion: http://www.proinversion.gob.pe/modulos/LAN/landing.aspx?are=1&pfl=1&lan=9&tit=
  • Table 12. Direct Foreign Investment flows in Peru (in millions of US$) Source: Proinversion YEARS BCRP DIRECT FOREIGN INVESTMENTS VARIATION 1995 2,557.0 1996 3,471.1 35.8% 1997 2,139.3 -38.4% 1998 1,643.9 -23.2% 1999 1,940.0 18.0% 2000 809.7 -58.3% 2001 1,144.3 41.3% 2002 2,155.8 88.4% 2003 1,335.0 -38.1% 2004 1,599.0 19.8% 2005 2,578.7 61.3% 2006 3,466.5 34.4% 2007 5,491.0 58.4% 2008 6,923.7 26.1% 2009 6,430.7 -7.1% 2010 8,454.6 31.5% 2011 8,232.6 -2.6% 2012 12,239.7 48.7% 2013 2/ 11,108.0 -9.2% 2014 2/ 9,400.0 -15.4% 2015 2/ 9,435.0 0.4%
  • GRAPH 1: ESTIMATED PORTFOLIO OF MINING PROJECTS BY MAIN INVESTOR, JANUARY 2014 Source: Ministerio de Energía y Minas: “Cartera estimada de proyectos mineros, Enero 2014”, page 3
  • • Moreover, on April this year the company resulting from the merger of Glencore and Xstrata agreed to sell the copper project Las Bambas located in Apurimac, and sold it for $5.85 billion to a Chinese consortium led by MMG Ltd., which is owned by China Minmetals, and included Guoxin International Investment Corp. and Citic Metal Co. When the mine come into production it could increase by more than a third the amount of copper produced in Peru. • Also in November 13 2013 it was announced that CNPC through is listed company PetroChina bought Petrobras Peru unit for $2.6 billion. The Chinese firm bought all the shares of Petrobras Energia Peru S.A., which has three oil and gas fields in Peru.
  • • V.4 Challenges ahead for Peru • To take full advantages of the opportunities in the PA Peru needs to: • Investment in infrastructure of transport and skilled labor force (primary and secondary education is not good, sadly Peru appears in the last place in the PISA education evaluation system of 65 countries) • Improve institutional framework, with a better judicial system, a meritocratic system of government (to spend more efficiently), and less regulation by the government.
  • • The government has announced a Productive Diversification Plan, to promote activities with more value added. Peru has big opportunities in the mining sector, the agro industrial sector, the fishery sector, textile and garments, chemical sector, etc. Plenty of challenges here remains, as for example, with the scarcity of water, of skilled labor force, cold chain (in the agro industry sector), of many regulations, connectivity (transport links), etc. • Increase its red of commercial offices in Asia. Up to now there are only offices in Tokyo (Japan): in Taipei (Taiwan); in Beijing and Shanghai (China). Soon offices will be opened in Seoul, and in Jakarta • Private sector should be more involved in the effort to do more business with Asia
  • VI. Conclusions • Next June 19 and 20 there will be a Presidential Summit of AP countries in Mexico. Still the PA agreement has not been approved in some countries. • The political will to take advantage of the PA seems to be there. The question is to implement the policies to make it work. • The improvement of physical and human infrastructure, the elimination of remaining barriers to trade, the improvement in the institutional environment (better judicial system, a better political system, etc.), and the need to know better the Asian markets are challenges ahead. All these measures would make the PA more competitive.