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Climate Change
Henk Harmsen

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What we know
• How global warming works
• Early warning signs
• What might happen

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Source: Carbon Dioxide Research Group, Scripps Institute of Oceanography

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How global warming works
240 W/m2 240 240 236 240 240
Equilibrium CO2 * 2 CO2 * 2
15 °C 15 °C 15 °C + 2.5 °C
Source: Global Warming, Houghton, 2004

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The Carbon Cycle
Atmosphere 760 + 3.3
uptake uptake
0.7 2.3
fossil fuels &
carbonates 6.3
Land 2500 Oceans 39000
All nrs. in Gt
Source: Global Warming, Houghton, 2004

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Signs of climate change
Average temperature increased
+ 0.6 °C over 20th century
More heavy rain events
Higher frequency and intensity of droughts
Global mean sea level + 1-2 mm/year
Snow cover decrease 10%
Arctic ice thinned by 40%
Source: Global Warming, Houghton, 2004

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Trouble brewing
• The Keeling curve
• Breathing of the planet
• pre industrial 280 ppm
Source: Grid Arendal/UNEP, Vital Climate Change Graphics

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What is being done
• Climate change policies
• Emissions trading
• Policy regions

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Quotes
\"If you think mitigated climate change is
expensive, try unmitigated climate
change.“
Dr. Richard Gammon, University of Washington, on the steps of the US Congress, June 28, 1999
\"First, we would not accept a treaty that
would not have been ratified, nor a
treaty that I thought made sense for the
country.“
GW Bush on the Kyoto accord in an interview with the Washington Post, April 24, 2001

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“Recent” problem
Kyoto Protocol
Earth Summit Kyoto Kyoto Protocol
& UNFCCC Protocol enters into force
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
“planet
“discernable “scientific “Warming of the
seems to be human evidence” climate system
warming” influence” is unequivocal”
Bronnen: IPCC 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th Assessment Reports

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Legal frameworks
United Framework Convention on Climate Change
Stabilize GHG emission at 1990 levels by 2000
Kyoto Protocol
Reduce GHG emissions with average 5% during the
period 2008-2012 [compared to 1990 levels]
European Union
Mandatory CO2 emissions trading for +/- 11000
installations

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How emissions trading works (cap & trade)
Buy
allowances
Emissions Allowances
Monitor & Verify Allocate

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European Emissions Trading [EU ETS]
Emission permit
Verification
Allocation
Emissions +/- 2191 Mt CO2
+/- 2100 Mt CO2
+/- 11000 installations covered. CO2 price: 15 – 20 eur/ton

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How emissions trading works (baseline & credit)
Issue
credits
Baseline Project
Validate emissions
Monitor &
verify

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Climate policy regions
Big Regional European Big Kyoto Kyoto
Kyoto initiatives emissions surplus gap
gap trading
CDM Regional
projects initiatives

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Consequences for business?
70% of business see both risks and opportunities related to
climate change [source: www.cdproject.net]

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FT500 Climate change actions
90%
79%
80% 74%
70%
60%
47%
50% 41%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Allocated Disclosure of Emission Emission targets
management emissions data reductions
responsibility
Source: www.cdproject.net

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Tips for doing nothing
• We don’t know enough
• The goal is not clear
• Developing countries have no reduction target
Source: G.W. Bush, White House

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Better to act now
• Scientific evidence
• Precautionary principle
• Link with energy policy

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Source: Grid Arendal/UNEP, Vital Climate Change Graphics

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Financial impact
“…we will quantify the financial cost of
greenhouse gas emissions and integrate them
into financial analysis of the transaction.”
JP Morgan, corporate policy
Munich Re may “…adapt verified forecasts of
climate change into the company’s business
decisions.”
Munich Re, response Carbon Disclosure Project

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We are in the same boat
\"This is by far the most serious challenge that
we face or have ever faced. None of the other
ones will matter if we don't get this right.“
Al Gore

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More information
www.ipcc.ch Scientific research
www.unfccc.int Kyoto Protocol, JI, CDM
www.cdproject.net Carbon Disclosure Project
www.wri.org Climate change data
www.pewclimate.org Policy briefings
www.ghgprotocol.org Measuring GHG emissions
www.pointcarbon.com News
www.carbonneutral.com Become carbon neutral
http://ec.europa.eu/environment/ Emissions Trading in Europe
climat/emission/mrg_en.htm
http://magma.nationalgeographic. National Geographic
com/ngm/0409/ special

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Henk Harmsen
henk@carbonmetrics.com
www.carbonmetrics.com
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.5/