European Energy Challenges v2

European Energy ChallengesColette LewinerParis – May 11th, 2012 | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

An overview of the European energy markets Recent events are impacting the energy markets • Middle-East political tensions • Fukushima accident consequences • Economic downturn Present and future energy mix is evolving • Renewables • Gas • Energy mix costs Sustainability questions • EU 2020 objectives • Demand Response Smart grids Conclusion | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector 2

The rising political tensions in Iran are particularly worrying for global oil supply Italy After China, the EU is the largest importer of Iranian oil Iran’s oil exports (Jan to June 2011) (about 20%) % of each 13% In response to the Iran’s nuclear program negotiations country’s total 7% oil imports Others Other EU failure, the US and Europe decided sanctions against Iran, Jan to June 2011 Spain who, in return, threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz: 12% 5% China 6% 13% • Strengthening of the US military presence in the Gulf • Oil embargo from the EU (due to start in July) which should 11% hit 450,000 to 550,000 barrels a day of Iranian oil exports Total Japan Iranian oil But Iran banned crude oil supply to France, the UK and South Africa 22% exports 14% 10% the EU right away 2.3 m In addition, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and India could 25% bl/d reduce their purchases (up to 250,000 bl/d). In total, Source: Financial Times between 25% and 35% of Iran’s oil exports could be India Turkey 13% impacted 4% 11% However, Saudi Arabia is increasing significantly its 51% 7% production to curb price 10% South Korea Average daily oil flow 10% through the Strait of Hormuz (2011) 14 crude oil tankers Primary factors driving demand are Almost 17 million barrels Source: Financial Times economic growth and increased 35% 20% requirements in the developing world Iran political situations may place global of all seaborne of oil traded production and transportation at risk traded oil worldwide | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector 3

Oil prices in European currencies are at their highest Oil prices forecasts uncertainty is increased by  In Euros, the crude oil spot price is at its highest speculation: each barrel traded on the physical  There is currently a $20 spread between WTI and Brent, market is traded 35 times on the financial markets a the consequence of a localized logistic phenomenon There is some consumption/price elasticity at Cushing, Oklahoma, where WTI is priced High present oil prices are linked to tensions in  President Obama is supporting a new pipeline Middle East and Iran (Keystone XL) Oil prices Crude oil spot – Brent in US dollars and in Euros Crude oil spot – Brent vs. WTI 130 123.04 Brent 120 110 101.53 100 WTI 90 80 70 May 2011 Sept 2011 Jan 2012 Apr 2012Source: Focus Gaz, February 17, 2012 Source: Ycharts Source: France inflation High oil prices impact economic growth (EU’s oil import costs up 44% in 2011 compared to 2010 and net oil import bill estimated to account for 2.8% EU’s GDP in 2012 compared to 1.7% from 2000 to 2010) and trade exchanges balance | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector 4

Gas is not a global market. Very different regional pricing systems Gas spot prices Gas prices evolution 50 100 In €/MWh ($4.4/MBtu=€10.6 /MWh) DE - Import price NL - TTF BE - Zeebrugge UK - NBP 40 DE - NCG FR - PEG Nord 80 Long-term contracts price Brent month ahead Spot priceGas prices [€/MWh] 30 60 Brent price [€/bl] 20 40 10 20 0 0 Europe versus US gas pricesSource: Gas Exchanges web sites, SG Commodities Research, BMWI – Capgemini analysis, EEMO13  US spot prices could go up on the mid-term triggered by the new EPA (Environment Protection Agency) regulation on air pollution (Cross State Air Pollution Rule) that could lead to 20% of US coal-fired plants phase-out and their replacement by gas  Beginning of 2012, Gazprom has agreed to reduce by 10% the price of its long-term contracts to Europe US spot gas prices are only one third of long-term European gas prices. For how long? Source: Focus Gaz January 2012 | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector 5

Post-Fukushima nuclear reactors’ market: new builds mainly in Asia, Russia and Middle East Worldwide, 435 reactors are in operation, 62 under construction and 489 planned or proposed (April 2012, World Nuclear Association) Overview of existing nuclear plants and project capacities (as of April 2012) The final number of planned or proposed 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 reactors is difficult to assess. However, two China MWe points are clear: USA Russia • Provided reactors are run safely, the consequences India of the Fukushima accident should be less Japan France important than viewed just after the accident South Korea • The proportion of new, safer “Generation 3 United Kingdom reactor” builds will increase Ukraine Canada It is worthwhile mentioning that: UAE Operable Saudi Arabia Under construction • In the US: Germany South Africa Planned  TVA has decided to complete Bellefonte 1 reactor Vietnam Proposed  The Nuclear Regulatory Commission has certified the Turkey design of Westinghouse Electric Co.s AP1000 reactor Sweden  Southern Company is building 2 new nuclear plants in Spain Vogtle, Georgia Finland Czech Republic • Finland announced a new build, the first Brazil announcement of a new site anywhere in the world Switzerland since the Fukushima accident Source: World Nuclear Association • Russian Rosenergoatom has received a license for The vast majority of new constructions and building the Kaliningrad plant existing plants in operation should continue with • No.1 nuclear unit in Zhejiang Sanmen (China) has some delays and more safety focus. restarted the infrastructure construction project The IEA* forecasts that nuclear output will rise by • Bulgaria has decided to build a 7th reactor at more than 70% over the period to 2035 Kozloduy *IEA: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2011 | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector 6

There is some elasticity between the economic situation and the energy consumption EU electricity and gas consumption Evolution of electricity and gas consumption (M/M-12) non-weather-adjusted (non-weather-adjusted) +8% Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 -6% -11% 5,599 5,010 5,708 5,098 Electricity +4.1% -2.7% 9% -4.7% Gas 14% 3,265 1% 3,294 3,136 -1% 0% 0% 3,177 -3% -2% -2% -3% -4% -5% -2% -10% -4% -6% -4% -7% -10% -12% -12% -16% -14% Electricity Gas 2008 2009 2010 2011 -22% Source: SG Energy Pulse – Capgemini analysis, EEMO13 Source: ENTSO-E, BP – Capgemini analysis, EEMO13 In 2009, electricity and gas consumption dropped in Europe (-4.7% and -6.1% respectively) due to the crisis, in 2010, they increased again (+4.1% and +7.0%) thanks to the economic recovery and colder than average winter temperatures. Wholesale electricity and gas prices followed the same trend. In 2011, European electricity and gas consumption decreased respectively by 2.7%* and 10.7%**, mainly due to a mild weather. In France, electricity consumption decreased by 6.8% (weather-adjusted: +0.8%) and gas consumption by 13.4% (weather-adjusted: -1.9%). A second economic slowdown would impact negatively the energy consumption and prices * Société Générale Energy Pulse (Focus group representing 63% of European electricity consumption) **Eurogas | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector 7

European energy mix evolution 2010 and 2025 electricity mix (as of June 2011) Energy mix should evolve towards 100% more gas, renewables and coal (in certain countries) 90% Shale gas development is changing 80% the picture In the new IEA GAS* scenario, gas 70% Solar + Biomass share of primary energy consumption Wind 60% reaches 25% in 2035 at a global level Hydro Other f ossil (more than coal, slightly less than oil) Gas 50% but leads to a +3.5°C global Lignite + Coal temperature increase (compared to Nuclear 40% the +2°C objective) 2010 mix: lef t- hand side bar 30% In 2011, the IEA** has examined a Low 2025 mix: right- hand side bar Nuclear Scenario: 20% • No new nuclear plant is built in OECD countries 10% • Non-OECD countries build only half of the projected nuclear plants 0% BE BG CH CZ DE ES FI FR UK HU IT LT NL PL RO SE SI SK • The operating lifespan of existing Source: ENTSO-E – Capgemini analysis and estimations, EEMO13 nuclear plants is limited to 45 years However, today’s nuclear energy The energy mix evolution could result in: development forecast is more • Higher costs (renewables development) optimistic • Higher temperature increase (more fossil fuels) *GAS: Golden Age of Gas, International Energy Agency • Lower energy independency **World Energy Outlook 2011, IEA | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector 9

Renewable energies have continued their quick development. For how long? As of May 2011, 10% of the European Growth rate of renewable energy sources generation plants under construction 110% 2008 Solar PV Top 3 countries ranked by: are from renewable energy sources (vs. Capacity Growth (abs.) Growth (%) 100% Capacity installed* Growth** (absolute) 7% in 2009) DE DE SK 1. DE 1. SK In 2011, despite a drop of the new EU 90% 2005 IT CZ FR 2. ES 2. FR CZ FR SI wind installed capacity due to the 3. IT 3. SI financial crisis and tougher regulations, 80% 2010 * Volume for wind, small hydro, geothermal and solar PV wind power covered over 5% of EU’s in MW and for biogas and biomass in TWh ** Relative growth additionally displayed for solar PV and 70% wind consumption (172 TWh) Many governments have or are launching Growth (%) 60% 2007 2009 large offshore wind programs • September 2010: 300 MW offshore wind 50% 2006 farm inaugurated in the UK Wind 40% • France: part of the 3,000 MW tender Capacity Growth (abs.) Growth (%) awarded to 2 consortiums (one led by EDF 30% DE ES RO for 1,400 MW and one led by Iberdrola for ES DE BG IT FR PL 500 MW) in April 2012 20% 2005 2006 2008 2009 • North Sea: 400 MW (Germany) and 325 2007 2010 + Biomass MW (Belgium) under construction 10% 2009 DE PL • Nuclear phase out in Germany should FI SE 0% boost wind power but creates issues on 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 SE 80 NL 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 the grid Electricity production (TWh) Despite the solar PV growth in 2011 Source: Eur’Observer barometers – Capgemini analysis, EEMO13 globally (+44%), many solar companies went bust because of China competition A stable governmental policy is key for renewables In 2011, renewable energy investment development. The eurozone sovereign debt issues should rose 5% to US$260 billion* globally lead to subsidies decreases and threaten the EU 2020 (solar energy: +36%) Finance *Bloomberg New Energy objective achievement | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector 10

The gas paradigm is changing In the new IEA GAS* scenario, gas consumption is increased. Main World primary natural gas demand by assumptions are: sector and scenario • China ambitious policy for gas use • Increased power plants’ consumption linked to lower nuclear energy • Sustained low gas price However, in this scenario, heavy investments in infrastructure (difficult to finance) are needed Global unconventional natural gas resources (tcm) SE: 1,148 NO: 2,324 PL: 5,236 Source: World Energy Outlook 2011: Golden Age of Gas Report FR: 5,040 Shale gas changes the gas perspective: • It increases the total gas resources to 250 years of consumption • It is widely distributed • It is cheap ($2/Mbtu in the US) • It allows to repatriate gas consuming industries as Largest EU technically recoverable FR: 5,040 shale gas resources (bcm) chemicals and to fight against Source: EIA deindustrialization * GAS: Golden Age of Gas, IEA WEO 2011 | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector 11

Extensive analysis have been carried out on energy mix scenarios in France  The Energies 2050 commission examined four existing energy scenarios: 1. Lifespan extension of existing reactors: all existing nuclear reactors lifetime is extended to 60 years providing the nuclear safety authority (ASN) allows it 2. Quicker adoption of 3rd generation nuclear reactors: replacement of all existing nuclear reactors by 3rd generation reactors (EPR) as soon as they reach their 40 years lifetime, which implies to build at least 2 EPR reactors per year during 10 years (from 2020 to 2030) 3. Progressive reduction of nuclear energy in the mix: all existing nuclear reactors are decommissioned when reaching their 40 years lifetime and 1 on 2 reactors is replaced by a 3rd generation reactor (EPR), which leads to a 40-60% nuclear energy share by 2030 4. a. Nuclear phase out (more fossil fuel energy): all existing nuclear reactors are decommissioned when reaching their 40 years lifetime and are replaced by fossil fueled plants 4. b. Nuclear phase out (more RES): all existing nuclear reactors are decommissioned when reaching their 40 years lifetime and are replaced by renewable energy plants Assumptions in the different scenarios by 2030 Electricity generation costs (€/MWh w/o taxes) CO2 emissions Employment Energy securitying nuclear reactors 1 ~25 MtCO2/y Stable Stable Not able toion nuclear reactors 2 ~25 MtCO2/y measure Stable 3 - 100,000 to Energy sources diversificationar energy in the mix 30-50 MtCO2/y 150,000 jobs but increase of fossil fuel imports 4ae fossil fuel energy) ~120 MtCO2/y Increase of fossil fuel imports - 200,000 jobs 4bhase out (more RES) ~45 MtCO2/y Potential issues on grid security 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 Source: Energies 2050, February 2012 – Capgemini analysis Energies 2050 commission recommends extending nuclear reactors lifespan | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector 12

Status on the EU 2020 objectives After the 2009 drop (-7.1%), GHG emissions increased 110 EU-27 GHG emissions Source: BP statistical report 2011, European Environment Agency, Eur’Observer – Capgemini analysis, EEMO13 by 2.2% due to the 2010 economic recovery. For 2011, Historical evolution of GHG emissions EU-27 GHG emissions [base year=100] 105 Path to reach 2020 target 88% ETS sector CO2 emissions released data show a 2020 target f or EU-27 2.4%* decrease, mainly due to the combustion/power 100 sector (-3.1%) An economic slowdown would push CO2 emissions 95 down 90 In its March 2011 Energy Efficiency plan, the EU estimated that with current measures only half of the 85 objective would be attained and developed a new draft -20% Directive focusing on: 80 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 • Triggering better energy efficiency of public buildings 1,850 EU-27 primary energy consumption • Demand response programs notably through smart meters roll out EU-27 Primary energy consumption [Mtoe] 1,800 • White Certificates mechanisms extension 1,750 • Better usage of cogeneration In 2013, the EU will re-assess the situation 1,700 -9% 1,650 The present European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) needs to be amended to 1,600 provide predictable and high enough CO2 1,550 Historical evolution of primary energy consumption Path to reach 2020 target 2020 target f or EU-27 prices. The UK announced a carbon price Projection with current measures in place (as per the March 2011 EU Energy Ef f iciency Plan) 1,500 floor to start in 2013 at £16/t of CO2 -20% 1,450 *Deutsche Bank analysis, April 2012 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector 14

In certain countries as France, peak shaving is a key issue during cold weather % peak shaving observed in various pilots worldwide Several means exist for peak shaving and energy % peak shaving Range of peak shaving savings, that can be combined or not: • Dynamic tariffs (that should be further developed with the mass roll-out of smart meters) • Automation such as smart thermostat, smart appliances, in-home displays or web-based consumer portal • Demand management programs such as customers alerts, social networks communication or feedbacks through bills, web, SMS, smart phones Source: Capgemini Consulting Peak shaving: the use of displays helps but the customers’ behavior is key | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector 15

In all developed countries, energy savings are key % energy savings observed in various pilots worldwide Large-scale pilots operated for more than % energy saving one year reach energy Range of energy saving savings in the 2-6% range while more focused programs based on customer segmentation can reach up to 18%* energy savings In France, only one third of peak shaving electricity savings result in final electricity consumption reduction Prices increase and Time-of-Use tariffs should trigger sustained energy savings results Source: Capgemini Consulting *Literature review for the Energy Demand Research Project, Sarah Darby, Oxford University, 2010 | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector 16

Demand response potential for EU-27 by 2020 Dynamic scenario: In Capgemini Consulting’s Demand Response Demand Response study 3.1 Savings in CO2 emissions (in Mt of CO2 1 ) (DR) study*, the potential of peak shaving and 2012 results snapshot 1.0 3% Savings in electricity consumption (in equivalent number of major cities2 and in % energy savings) energy savings is modeled on the basis of a 5.2 4 2% Savings in peak generating capacities (in number baseline scenario: 0.9 2% 4.3 of power plants3 and in % peak shaving) • GDP growth 2010-20: 1.8% in average 0.8 1% Moderate scenario: Probable savings based on our observation of • CAGR electricity consumption 2010-20: 0.7% 24 13% current trends in regulatory, technical and 3.7 22 15% market conditions (in number of power plants) • Some existing energy efficiency programs such 0.6 2% 2.5 0.4 1% 2.8 1.4 1.1 as Grenelle de l’Environnement or White 15 13% 0.5 2% 0.2 1% 1.0 0.2 1% 0.6 0.7 Certificates 14 13% 0.2 2% 7 13% 0.1 1% 0.1 1% Assumptions are made on: 12 13% 6 13% 5 13% • Regulation (norms and standards, energy 4 14% 4 15% efficiency objectives, tariffs and incentive policies) • Market design (possibility to monetize DR on wholesale markets, contracts optimization, capacity markets) • Smart meters penetration and functionalities (for 1 Normative hypothesis: 1 kWh saves 700g CO2 (average European value considering avoided peak capacity is mainly gas-fired plants) the households segment) 2 Expressed in equivalent of avoided consumption of large size cities (2 mio inhabitants and 150,000 commercials, average consumption of 8.2 TWh/year) 3 Expressed in equivalent of avoided construction of power plants (500 MW) And typical DR offerings are modeled with Source: Capgemini Consulting hypothesis on their adoption by customers Our study shows that peak shaving potential is significant while electricity savings potential is *Demand Response study 2012 - Capgemini Consulting, VaasaETT and Enerdata more limited | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector 17

Renewable energies are strongly impacting the grid management August 27, 2009 November 8, 2009Source: Enagas, Outlook for LNG In the absence of competitive electricity storage solutions, gas storage and CCGT rapid ramp up helps managing the renewable output volatility on the grid | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector 19

The need for smart grids is emerging With the increase of renewable energies generation share, the electrical grid’s management is facing new Communication challenges as these energies provide unforeseeable and Technologies intermittent power generation that is thus not Network Device and schedulable. Balancing demand and supply on the grid Events Ops Management becomes very complex. Wind and solar power units are generally small and Back Office Applications decentralized, allowing customers to become occasional producers The distribution network that is less sophisticated than Renewable s the transmission network is not designed to manage Advanced those decentralized and sometimes bi-directional flows Metering Smart grids concept has emerged to manage a Enhanced Power Grid Plug-In Digital Communications and Control dramatic increase in data flow, data storage and Hybrids exchanges both for grid balance and customer Smart Meters & Control Building Automation relations. They necessitate new equipments and will be Interface more digitally managed. Communication protocols will need to be standardized in order to manage the information flow on the net and with the customers as well as within buildings Electric grid management is a key factor to improve security of New investments needed: Today there is funding in supply. However it’s not going to Europe (€1 bn EU funds) and, more so, in the US (stimulus happen overnight. A lot of grants: $3.4 bn), for smart grid studies and prototype regulatory and standardization building but not for their real deployment, while issues have to be worked out. investments are estimated at $200 bn worldwide from 2008- 2015 ($53 bn in the US)* *Pike Research | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector 2

Smart grids: key success factors Smart grids implementation will necessitate new investments: • The transmission and distribution tariffs will have to increase and by consequence the electricity prices • Regulators, governments and customers will have to accept these prices increases Industrial R&D is needed to develop new equipments (as large competitive storage) or improve existing ones (as HVDC connections). Communication standards are crucial: • US is mobilized at the government (Department of Energy) and equipment manufactures levels • Europe is now considering more seriously this question • Equipments conceived with the internationally adopted standards will have a clear advantage Efforts on simulation and modeling are needed: • For the transmission grid there is a need to build a new European High Voltage grid management model • On the distribution side, the retail market has to evolve and modeling is needed. Interesting experiences initiated by regulators and involving all stakeholders (Utilities, equipment manufacturers, IT service companies, local authorities...) have been launched in Victoria (Australia), Texas (USA) and France. | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector 21

Smart meters are the first steps for smart grids Electricity and gas smart metering projects in Europe  In addition to smart meters and boxes, time of use tariffs, Mass roll-out finalized Norway Finland E Draft regulation issued in Feb. 2011 E Legislation into effect. At least electricity curtailment incentives Mass roll-out by 2020 well-engaged 80% roll-out by 2016, 100% by 2018 80% roll-out by end 2013 and public education are key Mass roll-out probably not elements to implement a demand completed by 2020 Netherlands Sweden E Legal framework for voluntary E 100% smart meters FI implemented in 2009 management policy UK installation adopted E 27 million smart meters should Several pilots under way NO  80% of electricity customers in EU be implemented by 2020 SE Member States should have smart G Similar to electricity Estonia Denmark E Deployment by several EE E Mandatory nationwide meters by 2020. All countries Ireland roll-out under discussion E National roll-out DNOs. No national plan LV required to perform cost benefit DK planned for 2014-17 IE Germany analysis by September 2012 G Studies under way LT E 50 trials from 10 to 115,000 meters for gas Nationwide roll out under discussion UK Customers can opt in or out Belgium NL G Similar to electricity  In September 2011, France has E No legislation yet Several business case BE DE PL Poland decided the mass roll out of 35 E Legislation should be ready in 2012 G studies under way Similar to electricity LU Pilots run by all Utilities million meters from 2013 to 2020 but CZ G Similar to electricity the starting date will be delayed. France SK E Decision for roll-out of 35 FR AT Czech Republic  4 technologies experimented for million smart meters by 2020 Austria CH E National roll-out under discussion taken in 2011. E Legislation adopted in 2010. HU Several pilots under way gas smart meters (18,500 meters) SI G GreenLys pilot, decision for mass roll-out by 2013 Pilots from 10,000 to RO Hungary in France. Final mass roll-out 240,000 meters G Legislation under discussion E Legislation adopted in 2011 decision should be taken in 2013 ES IT G Legislation under discussion In Europe, the Value BG PT Chain unbundling Portugal E Smart meter substitution plan Spain Italy E 100% smart meters Greece regulation impacts presented by the regulator Several pilots (30,000 to E 100% smart meters should be implemented in 2009 GR E Roll-out under way negatively the return 50,000 meters) run implemented by end 2018 G 80% smart meters to be installed by 2016 G Plans for extending the electricity system to on smart metersSource: ESMA, GEODE – Capgemini analysis, EEMO12, updated March 2012 water and gas meters investment | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector 22

Utilities need to change their business model « Energy Orb » (PG&E) gives visual Oil and gas procurement tensions and post- indications to clients involved in energy demand management programs Fukushima accident are leading to changes in the energy landscape European Utilities are negatively impacted by the economic slowdown, governments pressure on prices, potential extra-taxes and frozen regulation US Utilities are negatively impacted by low gas prices They need to adapt their business model, increase competitiveness and launch profitable innovative projects Developed countries have to limit their energy demand and Utilities have a key role to play Public deserves a proper information on all energy- related questions | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector 24

About CapgeminiWith around 120,000 people in 40 countries, Capgemini is one of the worlds foremost providers ofconsulting, technology and outsourcing services. The Group reported 2011 global revenues of EUR 9.7billion. Together with its clients, Capgemini creates and delivers business and technology solutions that fittheir needs and drive the results they want.A deeply multicultural organization, Capgemini has developed its own way of working, the CollaborativeBusiness ExperienceTM, and draws on Rightshore ®, its worldwide delivery model.With EUR 670 million revenue in 2011 and 8,400 dedicated consultants engaged in Utilities projectsacross Europe, North & South America and Asia Pacific, Capgeminis Global Utilities Sector serves thebusiness consulting and information technology needs of many of the world’s largest players of thisindustry.More information is available at www.capgemini.com/energy.Rightshore® is a trademark belonging to Capgemini | Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector Rightshore® is a trademark belonging to Capgemini 25

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European Energy Challenges v2

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