New World Order


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An overview of the macro trend of New World Order. Is the old adage of "America sneezes the rest of the world catches a cold" still current? In this New World Order where power increasingly resides with Brazil, China and India how are people responding and what are the consequences for brands?

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New World Order

  1. 1. New World Order.December 1, 2011
  2. 2. Behaviour and culture.We study people’s behaviour, analyse major cultural developments andconnect them to identify behavioural change.Some people describe these as trends - for us these trends are better referredto as TABS as trends is only one component part.
  3. 3. When America sneezes...
  4. 4. Is this still the case?China is the largest consumer market for:Bikes and motorcycles 7%Shoes 12%Automobiles 22%Mobile phones 22%Luxury goods 19%Trendwatching asked the question are these marketsEmerging or Emerged?Are we still in control of our own destiny?Economic shift - Asian labour costs rise and a majordomestic market.Purchasing power of the West falls.Uncontrollable inflation in the West, shrinking importmarket.In the UK, 62% believe the US is losing influence as asuperpower on the world stage
  5. 5. What if the world didn’tlook like this?
  6. 6. But instead looked likethis?
  7. 7. Does that change yourperspective?
  8. 8. Consider the diaspora.
  9. 9. This is not a good time to bexenophobic.To deliver economic growth embracingskilled workers is crucial.Always has been.Study by Duke University foundimmigrants made up1/8th US populationbut founded 25% of the technology andengineering firms.There are 215m first generationimmigrants around the world (3% ofworld’s population).There are more Chinese people livingoutside China than French people inFrance.
  10. 10. America (and Britain) educate foreignstudents as scientists and engineers andthen expel them.Sensible?The Mayor of New York describes this asNational Suicide.Chinese tech industry is dominated by‘sea turtles’.
  11. 11. Middle classes are onthe rise.
  12. 12. In India strong growth. In 2001 /02 just 59m households had income of $4k+ By 2009/10 this was around 200m.While millions live in rural poverty,millions more are moving to urbancentres and adopting middle-class lifestyles.The expanding domestic marketsin BRIC countries will createdemand both internally andexternally.
  13. 13. In Brazil 5% of thepopulation own 85% ofthe wealth.Emergence of the C-class, a lower middleclass.The result? Strongdomestic consumption.
  14. 14. Within one generation the Chinese middles class will73% of wealthy consumers in China be 4x larger thanare under 45. America’s.China consumes 28% of the world’s By 2030 China will haveluxury goods. 1.4bn middle class64% of Chinese consumers equate to success. Compared to 365m in41% believe that showing off luxury the US and 414m inbrands exhibits poor taste. Western Europe.The middle class is estimated to be157m people - only the US has alarger middle class.
  15. 15. We are alreadyinterested in China,Brazil and India.
  16. 16. The Beijing Olympics was a milestone andmarked the opening of China to the world.There is already a cultural exchange - not justpolitical and economic - Dialogue Cafe.Increasingly we look to the East for guidance.
  17. 17. RichemontAsia Pacific revenue climbed 48% and 41% of their revenues come from the area.The company now has 323 stores in China.
  18. 18. PradaFloated on HK stock exchange in 2011.43% of the brand’s global earnings comes from China.
  19. 19. Unilever56% of Unilever’s business comes from outside the US and Europe.Expect this to be 70-75% by 2012.
  20. 20. Harrods London has made itself more Chinese friendly:75 Mandarin speaking staff.Recently installed Chinese bank-card terminals allowingcustomers to make payments from domestic accounts.Scour Chinese social networks for feedback.The result?40% rise in sales to Chinese tourists in Q1.Starwood Personalized Travel program.Includes:In-hotel Chinese specialist.Chinese translated collateral.Convenience of home - including instant noodles.Chinese friendly menus.Will roll out across all Starwood hotels in 2012.
  21. 21. Mind your Ps and Qs.
  22. 22. Expensive - more than US“Hey guys” greetingHalf naked torsosModelled on Greek / Roman concept ofbeauty.Waspy aggressive image.Pumped perfume.“Display It, Don’t Spray It”No Asian shaped design.Opened in December 2009 and got itspectacularly wrong.
  23. 23. Paul Smith.Culturally sensitive and respectful.
  24. 24. Paul Smith made Japan its commercialcornerstone over 30 years ago.200 outlets in Japan15 outlets in the UK
  25. 25. We have a pick ‘n mixGlobal Mindset.
  26. 26. “We are not losing our culture, we are creating a new one” Ashgar Ali, owner, LahoreLahore Café BarServes typically ‘Asian’ fare, keema and tikkas alongside sticky toffee pudding and jam roly polyFor breakfast? A ‘Full Muslim.’
  27. 27. Smirnoff Nightlife Exchange.Pride in your own culture and a curiosity of others’ - take your nightlife and share it with other cities.This is a cultural exchange.
  28. 28. It’s about pride in your own culture and heritage...
  29. 29. ...and a curiosity about others - Conflict KitchenConflict Kitchen is a politically motivated NYC takeaway restaurant that rotates cuisinesand identities every four months to highlight a different country the US is in conflict with.
  30. 30. These signs are gaining traction: Life in a DayLife in a Day is a user generated film by Ridley Scott and Kevin MacDonald thatencouraged people to upload video footage of their lives on July 24. 4,500 hours offilm was submitted.
  31. 31. The Global Mindset attitude is most prevalent amongst millenials.Young people travel more than any other generation before themand find it easy to adapt to, and feel affinity with, foreign cultures. “Millennials, more than any generation are eager to understand perspectives that are different, event antithetical, to their own, rather than push them away” Torrey Taussig; Strategic Communications, Glover Park Group
  32. 32. When we travel we are ...more than that, there is aincreasingly seeking local real appetite to explore andimmersive experiences: in learn: 78% of millennialsjust three years AirBnB users have stated a stronghave booked 1.9m nights preference for learningacross 184 countries... something new when they travel.
  33. 33. Early signs include: PackabookPackabook encourages people to explore the world through fiction. It’s a free websitewhich allows users to discover novels set in locations they intend to visit.
  34. 34. Understanding the brand opportunity - Prada ‘Made In’The ‘Made In’ campaign exposes the global narratives behind Prada products and offersinsight into changing perceptions; ‘Made in India’ comes to mean interesting, not cheap.
  35. 35. Pride in cultural iconsand national brandsand branding.
  36. 36. The West as much as the East is uncomfortablewith the idea of a McWorld.
  37. 37. Increased pride in national icons and anemergence of soft powers - Titan. The largestbrand no-one seems to have heard of.
  38. 38. In China the spirit Baijiu accounts for morethan 30% of the alcoholic drinks market.
  39. 39. The top brands in Brazil are all Brazilian. FromItau (financial services) to Petrobras, to Skol,Natura and Brahma.
  40. 40. Ever wonder why the McFalafel flopped?
  41. 41. This guy makes them better.Israelis go to McDonald’s for a taste of Americana.That said, with Global Mindset, how would aMcFalafel have fared in NYC?
  42. 42. Expect culturalcollisions.
  43. 43. As the West loses confidence, it will increasingly be challenged andincreasingly face cultural collisions.Rejection of patronising western grasp of world cultures - ‘world music’and ‘Bollywood’ will become faux pas and become increasinglyculturally sensitive and worldly. English will remain the business language of choice despite spending more than €1bn inShomichelin, Ghana Think Tank. translation services a year in the EU alone.
  44. 44. Asia first.
  45. 45. Levi’s launched dENiZEN as their ‘global’ brand.Asia first, US second.
  46. 46. Hermès launched a range of high end saris.Mumbai first, Paris second.
  47. 47. British Airways launched their new First Class cabinon the Shanghai - London route.China first, US second.
  48. 48. Round-up- Consider the diaspora.- The middle classes are on the rise.- We are already interested in China, Brazil and India.- Mind your ps and qs.- We have a pick ‘n mix Global Mindset.- Pride in cultural icons.- Expect cultural collisions.- Asia first.
  49. 49. Contact.Twitter: @canvas8Email: