Conferenza Gas: Marco Golinelli

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  • Dynamic Balancing SolutionsVarious solutions are available for system balancing tasks. Some of these solutions are still untested, some already proven and available. Different balancing solutions have different characteristics with regard to the time they can be utilized and the amount available. Below is a short summary of available options.Demand response and smart gridsPower system balancing and reduction of peak loads or load shifting, can to some extent be handled with demand response. The magnitude of the potential depends on the type of load. Demand response is most cost effective for larger loads, such as industrial processes, especially in caseswhere the process itself includes an intermediate storage or buffer. Naturally there is always cost involved in form of lost revenue, and the time of the plant shut down may be limited due to processetc reasons.On a smaller scale, such as households, smart grids with smart meters are being promoted. There, however, the specific cost compared to load shifting potential is high. There are also limitations on how long continuous household loads can be shut off, e.g. a refrigerator 15 minutes and heating approximately 4 hours so it will function best as a short term load shifter.The potential of demand response is though not insignificant. A recent study made for the ERCOT grid in Texas shows that 8% of the peak load would be shiftable with reasonable costs.Spinning reserveSpinning reserve is unused generation capacity that is synchronized and ready to ramp up and thereby serve additional demand on decision of the system operator. Such capacity can be called for relatively rapidly. Typically the system operator pays a generation company to provide spinning reserve, based on lost revenue. Spinning reserve requires that capacity is operated at lower than nominal output, which with most technologies results in lower efficiency and consequently highercarbon emissions
  • Dynamic Balancing SolutionsVarious solutions are available for system balancing tasks. Some of these solutions are still untested, some already proven and available. Different balancing solutions have different characteristics with regard to the time they can be utilized and the amount available. Below is a short summary of available options.Demand response and smart gridsPower system balancing and reduction of peak loads or load shifting, can to some extent be handled with demand response. The magnitude of the potential depends on the type of load. Demand response is most cost effective for larger loads, such as industrial processes, especially in caseswhere the process itself includes an intermediate storage or buffer. Naturally there is always cost involved in form of lost revenue, and the time of the plant shut down may be limited due to processetc reasons.On a smaller scale, such as households, smart grids with smart meters are being promoted. There, however, the specific cost compared to load shifting potential is high. There are also limitations on how long continuous household loads can be shut off, e.g. a refrigerator 15 minutes and heating approximately 4 hours so it will function best as a short term load shifter.The potential of demand response is though not insignificant. A recent study made for the ERCOT grid in Texas shows that 8% of the peak load would be shiftable with reasonable costs.Spinning reserveSpinning reserve is unused generation capacity that is synchronized and ready to ramp up and thereby serve additional demand on decision of the system operator. Such capacity can be called for relatively rapidly. Typically the system operator pays a generation company to provide spinning reserve, based on lost revenue. Spinning reserve requires that capacity is operated at lower than nominal output, which with most technologies results in lower efficiency and consequently highercarbon emissions
  • The principle is that surplus electric energy is used to pump water into an elevated reservoir, and later when power is needed the stored water is lead through a turbine generator system. In larger scale, around 500 MW, the cost of a pumped hydro system is approximately ¼ of a lead‐acid battery based system.There are some challenges related to pump hydro: the electricity needed to drive the pumps must be generated with some other power plants and about 25% of the electrical energy is lost in the process. Another aspect is the fact that depending on the original power source pumped hydro isn’tnecessarily renewable energy. If, for example, pump storage is used during the night to enable coal fired power stations to maintain minimum load (to avoid stopping them), the power produced later by the pump hydro is most carbon intensive as the pumping was done with high carbon minimum loaded coal plants, and some 25% of the power was lost on the way. At the same time, if the system contains enough wind power to stop all thermal generation, pumping excess wind power makes more sense. Locations with suitable water storage possibilities are not widely available.
  • Reservoir hydroReservoir hydro power utilises dams that are constructed in mountainous areas, in narrow sections of valleys, downstream of a natural basin. The flow of water drives hydro turbines that generate electricity. Reservoir hydro is dispatchable, it can be totally closed for a period, making it ideal for both base load, load following and system balancing. Depending on reservoir size, water can be stored for future needs, making it the perfect carbon‐free balancing solution for wind power during low‐wind conditions.Dams with significantly large capacity take years to plan and construct, and involve remarkably high capital cost. Suitable locations for new plants are also difficult to find. Construction approval is another major challenge as construction could displace residents and dramatically affect the localenvironment. Reservoir hydro is only a solution for areas where suitable infrastructure with major height differences and valleys exits.Reservoir hydro is currently the most widely integrated renewable energy source, yet most suitable locations that can tolerate the environmental impact have already been utilised. New sites tend to be remote, requiring significant investments in infrastructure, such as new roads and transmission lines, while gaining approval is often very difficult because of the environmental impact.Reservoir hydro is part of the future balancing solution, but there is not and will not be adequate capacity in the EU system to handle the full balancing task with reservoir hydro. Norway has 30 GW producing mainly base load power to Norway and Nordpool area. It also requires a strong grid to be built to connect the remote hydro plants (e.g. in Norway) to the EU main grid.
  • Highest simple cycle electrical efficiency (of all thermal power plant technologies)46% plant net (gas)44% plant net (liquid fuel)Flexicycle™ (Combined cycle combustion engine plant) electrical efficiency50 % plant net (gas)48 % plant net (liquid fuel)
  • Nuke 33 % efficiency, no dynamic propertiesCoal up to 40 % efficiency, 12 h start from cold, 3 h from warmCCGT reachesfullload in 90 min from preheated conditions, GT only in 25 mins.Heavy duty (Industrial) GT’sreachfullload in 25 minutes, aeroderivates in 10 minutesWärtsilä SC canreachesfullload in 3 min (Liquidfuelengine), 5 min (34SG), 10 min (50SG)Wärtsilä Flexicycle: engines 10 min, combinedcycle 80 min
  • How do we intend to take advantage of our position in the focal point of these changing markets. We are sharpening up our efforts in the three growth areas of Smart Power Generation, marine gas applications and environmental solutions. The development of environmental solutions and gas technology will be a priority for Wärtsilä in order to be able to serve the changing needs of our customers. We intend to make sure that we have the best gas engine technology, as well as the right competence and solutions for the safe and efficient handling of gas on board vessels. We also continue to develop our 2-stroke dual-fuel engines capable of running on low pressure gas.

Transcript

  • 1. L’Italia del gas naturale verso un nuovo assetto di mercato GAS, AMBIENTE E SMART POWER GENERATION Dr.Marco Golinelli Vice Presidente Wärtsilä Italia S.p.A. Roma 27 Novembre 20121 © Wärtsilä
  • 2. 2 © Wärtsilä
  • 3. Our roots and heritage Passion for engines.3 © Wärtsilä
  • 4. Today we are much more than an engine company Passion for optimising lifecycle value for our customers with modern and sustainable power solutions.4 © Wärtsilä
  • 5. This is Wärtsilä POWER PLANTS SHIP POWER SERVICES5 © Wärtsilä
  • 6. This is what we bring to the market ENVIRONMENTAL FUEL EFFICIENCY SOLUTIONS FLEXIBILITY6 © Wärtsilä
  • 7. Our offering Ship Power Services CUSTOMERS integrated solutions solutions Equipment Lifecycle sales Power Plants From spare solutions customised parts to solutions service agreements7 © Wärtsilä
  • 8. We provide superior value to our customers with our flexible, efficient and environmentally advanced energy solutions, which enable a transition to a more sustainable and modern energy infrastructure.8 © Wärtsilä
  • 9. Market trends and drivers• GDP growth, electrification and increasing standard of living drive the growth of electricity demand• Demand for sustainability and focus on climate change• Rapid growth of intermittent renewable generation• Increasing daily, weekly and seasonal demand fluctuation increase the need for flexibility• Changing roles of fuels – New coal power plants difficult to permit in the western countries – Increasing role of gas, especially as a balancing fuel – The future of nuclear is uncertain The world needs affordable, clean, flexible and reliable power.9 © Wärtsilä
  • 10. The role of gas• Recent technical breakthroughs and commercialisation of shale gas have lead to: – Substantial increase in perceived lifetime/availability of gas reserves globally – Reduction of gas price in the US from 10 $/MMBtu (2008) to less than half – Rapid decline in demand for LNG in US and consequential surplus of supply. US will become an exporter of LNG instead of the major importer. – The new competitive situation is leading to • Deindexation of gas prices from oil (LFO) • Small scale LNG becoming commercially interesting • Huge interest in LNG in locations with no gas infrastructure• The use of gas in power generation will increase as it is competitively priced and is a low carbon fuel• The role of gas in power generation is covering multiple segments – Base load to intermittent, in systems with low share of installed wind capacity – Peaking to system balancing, as the share of wind capacity increases and the net load to thermal plants decreases – This is because gas power plants: • Can be constructed rapidly with a reasonable cost • Produce less CO2 emissions than other thermal dispatchable plants • Can offer favourable dynamic characteristics 10 © Wärtsilä
  • 11. The role of gas Quotes: • Jeff Immelt, CEO, GE: “The world is starting a natural gas power generation cycle” • John Krenicki, Vice Chairman, GE : “We are looking at a 25-year very bullish gas market” • Linda Cook, Executive Director Gas & Power, Royal Dutch Shell: “The decreasing cost of LNG is making it more competitive in more markets.” • Maxime Verhagen, Deputy Prime Minister of the Netherlands: “For many decades to come, gas will remain critically important to the energy mix worldwide. In our effort to move to an efficient and low carbon economy, natural gas as the cleanest of fossil fuels is indispensable. The Netherlands aims to contribute to this transition by serving as a gas hub to North-West Europe.”11 © Wärtsilä
  • 12. 205012 © Wärtsilä
  • 13. System capacities, 20 % at 2020 system 1(2) • System peak load 100 GW Capacity, future system • Needs 110 GW installed dispatchable Variable capacity (10% margin for contingency Capacity 58 GW situations) Solar • 20% of power produced with renewables 9 GW requires e.g.: Low-carbon – 49 GW wind capacity (capacity factor 25%) baseload – 9 GW solar capacity (capacity factor 20%) 32 GW Wind • The >8000h base load capacity need is 49 GW about 32 GW • The gap between installed base load capacity and the system peak load must Flexible be covered with 78 GW of flexible, capacity 78 GW dispatchable capacity Dispatchable Capacity 110 GW13 © Wärtsilä
  • 14. System capacities, 20 % at 2020 system 2(2) Base load capacity • Zero - or lowest possible - CO2 • Lowest possible marginal costs • Quantity 32 GW  Over 8000 h of full power operation • No need for agility of dispatch, load range 60…100 Flexible capacity • High agility of dispatch • Lowest possible CO2 (high efficiency in a wide load range) • Lowest possible marginal costs • Decentralized locations in load pockets • Quantity  Dispatchable capacity above base load14 © Wärtsilä
  • 15. 15 © Wärtsilä AMICI© Wärtsilä DELLA TERRA / Dr. Marco Golinelli
  • 16. Dynamic Balancing Solutions Demand response and smart grids Power system balancing and reduction of peak loads or load shifting. Demand response is most cost effective for larger loads. Naturally there is always cost involved in form of lost revenue, and the time of the plant shut down may be limited due to process etc reasons. On a smaller scale, such as households, smart grids with smart meters are being promoted. There, however, the specific cost compared to load shifting potential is high. There are also limitations on how long continuous household loads can be shut off, e.g. a refrigerator 15 minutes and heating approximately 4 hours so it will function best as a short term load shifter. The potential of demand response is though not insignificant. A recent study made for the ERCOT grid in Texas shows that 8% of the peak load would be shiftable with reasonable costs.16 © Wärtsilä
  • 17. Dynamic Balancing Solutions Spinning reserve Spinning reserve is unused generation capacity that is synchronized and ready to ramp up and thereby serve additional demand on decision of the system operator. Such capacity can be called for relatively rapidly. Typically the system operator pays a generation company to provide spinning reserve, based on lost revenue. Spinning reserve requires that capacity is operated at lower than nominal output, which with most technologies results in lower efficiency and consequently higher carbon emissions17 © Wärtsilä
  • 18. Dynamic Balancing Solutions Storage Electric energy is difficult to store. Capacitors have limited capacity and are very expensive making them unattractive in large scale use. Conventional lead‐acid batteries cost about 75 000 €/MWh and have the restriction that they prefer slow charging and rather fast discharging. Additionally, leadacid batteries should not be discharged completely since it reduces their lifetime. Lithium based batteries on the other hand can accept fast charging and discharging but cost at least 800 000 €/MWh. Lot of R&D is put in developing better batteries.18 © Wärtsilä
  • 19. Dynamic Balancing Solutions Storage Pumped hydro has potential to play a role in storing energy from renewable generation. There are some challenges related to pump hydro: the electricity needed to drive the pumps must be generated with some other power plants and about 25% of the electrical energy is lost in the process. Depending on the original power source pumped hydro isn’t necessarily renewable energy. If, for example, pump storage is used during the night to enable coal fired power stations to maintain minimum load (to avoid stopping them), the power produced later by the pump hydro is most carbon intensive as the pumping was done with high carbon minimum loaded coal plants, and some 25% of the power was lost on the way. Pumping excess wind power makes more sense. Locations with suitable water storage possibilities are not widely available.19 © Wärtsilä
  • 20. Dynamic Balancing Solutions Storage Compressed air energy storage (CAES) is another storage technology. The principle is to compress air to a pressure of about 70 bar using an electrically driven air compressor. At this pressure the energy density of air is 29 MJ/m3, which is not much compared to natural gas that compressed to the same pressure contains 2.5 GJ/m3. It is hard to see how compressed air storages would ever make commercial sense.20 © Wärtsilä
  • 21. Dynamic Balancing Solutions Storage Hydrogen is another potential electric energy storage medium that is being developed. Hydrogen would presumably be produced using electrical energy or heat, then compressed or liquefied, stored, and then converted back to electricity using a heat engine or fuel cells. A significant problem with the “hydrogen economy” is it´s huge conversion losses. The total efficiency of a hydrogen storage system, electricity‐hydrogen‐electricity, can depending on how the electricity initially has been generated, fall below 20%. Obviously the cost of such electrical power would be extremely high.21 © Wärtsilä
  • 22. Dynamic Balancing Solutions Storage Reservoir hydro Reservoir hydro is dispatchable, it can be totally closed for a period, making it ideal for both base load, load following and system balancing. Depending on reservoir size, water can be stored for future needs, making it the perfect carbon‐free balancing solution for wind power during low‐wind conditions. Dams with significantly large capacity take years to plan and construct, and involve remarkably high capital cost. Suitable locations for new plants are also difficult to find. New sites tend to be remote, requiring significant investments in infrastructure. Reservoir hydro is part of the future balancing solution, but there is not and will not be adequate capacity in the EU system to handle the full balancing task with reservoir hydro.22 © Wärtsilä
  • 23. Dynamic Balancing Solutions “Super grid” A “super grid” has been marketed as a solution for balancing renewables over large geographical areas, the assumption being that wind conditions over larger areas always differ from each other, which should allow excess wind power to be transferred to areas with no or low wind. However in Europe the wind conditions are largely determined by Atlantic low pressures, creating similar wind conditions all the way from North Sea to Spain. Transferring excessive wind power from North Sea region to Spain or vice versa does not provide the desired balancing solution as everybody has excess wind power at the same time. A “super grid” will be needed in the North Sea region to bring all the coming offshore wind power to land.23 © Wärtsilä
  • 24. Winds on Europe24 © Wärtsilä
  • 25. Smart Power Generation – unique features Energy efficiency Energy • Highest simple cycle electrical efficiency efficiency • High efficiency regardless of ambient conditions Operational flexibility • Unlimited, super fast, reliable • High plant efficiency over a wide starting and stopping with no load range due to multiple impact on maintenance schedule generating sets • Fast reserve, load Competitive generation cost and following, peaking and baseload high dispatch Smart • All ancillary services Power • Grid support, wind enabling Fuel flexibility Generation Multi-tasking plant prepared for future markets • Continuous choice of the most feasible fuel • Solutions for – liquid and gaseous fuels – renewables Fuel Operational – multi-fuel plants flexibility flexibility – fuel conversions Hedge for the future25 © Wärtsilä
  • 26. Features of Smart Power Generation• Agility of dispatch • High plant reliability and availability – Megawatts to grid in 1 minute from start – Multiple units enable firm (n-2) power – 5 minutes to full load from start (n=number of installed units) – Fast shut down in 1 minute – Typical unit availability > 96% – Fast ramp rates up & down – Typical unit reliability ~ 99% – Unrestricted up/down times – Typical unit starting reliability > 99 % – High starting reliability • Optimum plant location and size – Remote operator access including start & – Location inside load pockets i.e. cities stop – Flexible, expandable plant size enables – Black start capability step by step investments• Low generation costs – Low pipeline gas pressure requirement (5 – High efficiency (46% in simple cycle and bar) >50% in combined cycle) • Fuel flexibility • High dispatch with low CO2 – Natural gas and biogases with back-up fuel – Wide economic load range – Liquid fuels (LBF, LFO, HFO) • Multiple units – Fuel conversions • Any plant output with high efficiency • Low environmental impact – No derating enabling higher dispatch in hot climate and at high altitude – Low CO2 and local emissions even when ramping and on part load – Low maintenance costs, not influenced of frequent starts and stops, and cyclic • Easy maintenance operation – Low/no water consumption© Wärtsilä
  • 27. Operational flexibility vs. electrical efficiency CCGT’s 50% Electrical Wärtsilä efficiency, Flexicycle™ net Wärtsilä SC Aero- 40% GT’s Coal Industrial GT’s Starting time Ramp rate Part load operation Nuclear Flexibility 30% Low Medium High Steam Power Plants Simple Cycle Combustion Engines27 © Wärtsilä
  • 28. Technology: a comparison© Wärtsilä
  • 29. Dynamic characteristic-2hrs production start & stop© Wärtsilä
  • 30. Average cost reduction with Smart Power Technology.30 © Wärtsilä
  • 31. CO2 emissions in different scenarios and CO2 emission reductions achieved with Smart Power technology.© Wärtsilä
  • 32. Smart Power Generation optimises energy systems The missing piece of the low carbon power system puzzle! Smart power generation enables the global transition to a sustainable, reliable and affordable energy infrastructure. It is a new, unique solution for flexible power generation and an essential part of tomorrow s optimized and secure low carbon power systems. Smart power generation can operate in multiple modes, from efficient base load power production to ultra fast dynamic system balancing. Smart Power Generation improves the system total efficiency, and solves the variability challenges of maximized wind integration. Energy Affordable Efficiency Enable! Smart Smart Power Power Generation System Fuel Operational Flexibility Flexibility Reliable Sustainable32 © Wärtsilä
  • 33. We are passionate about optimising lifecycle value by offering what our customers need. We deliver on this promise because we provide the only true total offering of marine products, integrated solutions and services in the industry – worldwide. We help our customers find the shorter route to robust growth and bigger profits by focusing on operational efficiency, environmental excellence, fuel flexibility and services.33 © Wärtsilä
  • 34. Key trends and drivers • High oil prices represent a risk for global economic growth; however, they also stimulate investments in exploration and production for oil and gas • Expansion of emerging economies continues to support growth of demand for transportation of raw materials and energy • Ship owner base is shifting to Asia • Environmental regulations drive demand for environmental solutions and gas as a marine fuel • Increasing focus on energy efficiency and environmental performance The development of environmental solutions and gas technology will be our priority in meeting the evolving needs of our customers.34 © Wärtsilä
  • 35. Ship Power’s focus on growth OUR STRATEGIC GOAL To be recognised as the leading solutions provider in the marine industry for: Gas and dual-fuel Environmental Efficiency solutions solutions LEADER INOFFERINGTHROUGH • Lifecycle solutions for ship owners and operators • Enhanced system integration for the ship building industry • The best product sales and delivery process for the marine industry 35 © Wärtsilä
  • 36. Dual-Fuel applications - References Power Merchant Offshore Cruise Navy Others Plants and FerryDF Power Plant LNGC PSVs/FPSOs LNG ferries Coastal Patrol Inland Water way 57 installations • 108 vessels • 20 vessels • 1 vessels • DF-Mechanical • 1 vessel 225 engines • 429 engines • 93 engines • 4 engines per • DF main and • 2 engines Online • Online from vessel auxiliary • Mechanicalsince1997 Conversion 1994 • Complete gas engines drive • 1 Chem. Tanker New orders: train • 2 engines conv. • Harvey Gulf; • 2800 Tug • Complete gas passengers the first 4 LNG- • 2 vessel train PSV to be • In service early • 2 engines each • Complete operated in the 2013 design • Mechanical Gulf of Mexico! drive  6 segments  183 installations  > 6’000’000 running hours36 © Wärtsilä
  • 37. NGShiP37 © Wärtsilä
  • 38. NGShiP38 © Wärtsilä
  • 39. NGShiP 200 174.6 159.4 Costo totale [M€] 160 120 97.1 80 40 0 Gas naturale Olio Combustibili a combustibile basso tenore di zolfo39 © Wärtsilä
  • 40. Profitable growth by focusing on three areas Smart Power Gas as a fuel Environmental Generation solutions The transition to Economic and Environmental regulation sustainable and modern environmental reasons and increased focus on energy systems drives the increase the growth optimised lifecycle demand for smart power potential for gas solutions efficiency create demand generation. in both end markets. in the marine industry.40 © Wärtsilä
  • 41. Gas is SMART POWER PLANTS GAS SHIP POWER41 © Wärtsilä