Blasi alessandro  iea
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×
 

Blasi alessandro iea

on

  • 1,368 views

 

Statistics

Views

Total Views
1,368
Views on SlideShare
1,354
Embed Views
14

Actions

Likes
0
Downloads
15
Comments
0

1 Embed 14

http://www.canaleenergia.com 14

Accessibility

Categories

Upload Details

Uploaded via as Microsoft PowerPoint

Usage Rights

© All Rights Reserved

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
Post Comment
Edit your comment

Blasi alessandro  iea Blasi alessandro iea Presentation Transcript

  • A Glimpse into Energy Trends Alessandro Blasi Office of the Chief Economist International Energy Agency Rome, 18 April 2012© OECD/IEA 2011
  • The context: fresh challenges add to already worrying trends  Economic concerns have diverted attention from energy policy & limited the means of intervention  Post-Fukushima, nuclear is facing uncertainty  MENA turmoil raised questions about region’s investment plans  CO2 emissions rebounded to a record high© OECD/IEA 2011
  • Emerging economies continue to drive global energy demand Growth in primary energy demand in the New Policies Scenario 4 500 Mtoe 4 000 China 3 500 India 3 000 Other developing Asia 2 500 Russia Middle East 2 000 Rest of world 1 500 OECD 1 000 500 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Global energy demand increases by one-third from 2010 to 2035, with China & India accounting for 50% of the growth© OECD/IEA 2011
  • Natural gas & renewables become increasingly important World primary energy demand 5 000 Mtoe Additional to 2035 4 000 2010 3 000 2 000 1 000 0 Oil Coal Gas Renewables Nuclear Renewables & natural gas collectively meet almost two-thirds of incremental energy demand in 2010-2035© OECD/IEA 2011
  • Energy efficiency is crucial for energy security, climate change and … our pockets Annual change in global energy intensity for selected periods 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2008 2009 2010 Global energy efficiency development is going in the wrong direction© OECD/IEA 2011
  • Efficiency improvements in transport sector limit oil demand growth World PLDV oil demand in the New Policies Scenario 45 mb/d Oil demand 40 35 Increase 2010-2035 due to: Fleet expansion 30 25 Decrease 2010-2035 due to: 20 Improvement in fuel economy 15 Lower average vehicle usage 10 Use of alternative fuels 5 0 2010 2035 Oil use by cars expands by only 15% between 2010 & 2035, with more efficient vehicles, less usage & switching to non-oil fuels offsetting most of the impact of a doubling of the fleet© OECD/IEA 2011
  • Changing oil import needs are set to shift concerns about oil security Net imports of oil 14 mb/d 2000 12 2010 10 2035 8 6 4 2 0 China India European United Japan Union States US oil imports drop due to rising domestic output & improved transport efficiency: EU imports overtake those of the US around 2015; China becomes the largest importer around 2020© OECD/IEA 2011
  • EU’s oil and gas import bills recorded historical high 450 3.3% 3.1% 400 Debt of Greek 350 2.7% government (end of 2011 300 2.2% EUR billion EU’s net import bills 250 Gas 200 Oil 150 % Share of GDP 100 50 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 EU spending on imports was almost two-thirds higher in 2011 than 2009 as a result of higher international oil prices & oil-indexed gas prices© OECD/IEA 2011
  • Efficiency gains can contribute most to EU emissions reductions European Union energy-related CO2 emissions abatement in the 450 Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario 4.0 Gt 3.5 Abatement New Policies 2020 2035 Scenario Efficiency 68% 48% 3.0 Renewables 25% 21% Biofuels 2% 6% 2.5 Nuclear 1% 11% CCS 3% 14% 2.0 Total (Mt CO2) 269 1032 450 Scenario 1.5 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Energy efficiency measures – driven by strong policy action across all sectors – account for 50% of the cumulative CO2 abatement over the Outlook period© OECD/IEA 2011
  • Why energy efficiency does matter: country case study - Russia Energy savings from raising efficiency to comparable OECD levels, 2008 Electricity and heat Energy consumption Other energy sector Potential savings Indirect savings Gas flaring Industry Final consumption Transport Buildings Other - 100 0 100 200 300 400 Mtoe The current international market value of the primary resources that could be saved by deploying more efficient energy technologies is about $70 billion© OECD/IEA 2011
  • Overview of WEO-2012  A full update of energy projections  by country, fuel & sector, to 2035  Objective & comprehensive analysis of topical issues  Fuel focus: energy efficiency – how to unlock the potential  climate impact on energy trends  energy-water nexus  indicators to track energy access  In addition, 2 special reports  29 May: the role of best practices (“Golden Rules”) for a Golden Age of Gas  Early October: first-ever in-depth outlook for Iraq (also included in full WEO)  Full WEO-2012 launch on 12 November© OECD/IEA 2011
  • Grazie!Alessandro.blasi@iea.orgwww.iea.orgwww.worldenergyoutlook.org© OECD/IEA 2011