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Biscari safe 11 maggio 2012

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  • 1. The Outlook for Energya view to 2040Piero BiscariDirettore Relazioni Esterne e Istituzionali - Esso ItalianaSAFE11 maggio 2012This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differmaterially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein andunder the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includesExxonMobils internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including theInternational Energy Agency. This material is not to be reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation.
  • 2. Global Progress Drives Demand Population GDP Energy Demand Billion Trillion 2005$ Quadrillion BTUs 21 120 1400 Average Growth / Yr. Average Growth / Yr. Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040 2010 – 2040 2010 – 2040 18 0.8% 2.9% 1200 0.9% 100 15 1000 80 Energy Saved 12 800 ~500 60 9 600 40 6 400 Non OECD 20 3 200 OECD 0 0 0 1990 2015 2040 1990 2015 2040 1990 2015 2040ExxonMobil 2012 Energy Outlook
  • 3. Global Efficiency Minimizes Demand Growth Demand Energy per GDP Quadrillion BTUs MBTU / 2005$ GDP 1200 15 What demand would be without efficiency gains 1000 12 Constant 2010 ~500 Quads Level 800 -0.9% 9 600 -1.9% 6 400 0.9% Average Growth / Yr. 2010 - 2040 3 200 0 0 1990 2015 2040 1990 2015 2040ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
  • 4. Electricity Generation Leads Growth Quadrillion BTUs 300 250 200 150 2040 2025 100 2010 50 0 Res/Comm Transportation Industrial Electricity GenerationExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
  • 5. Electricity Demand Continues to Surge By Sector Fuel Into Electricity Generation k TWh Quadrillion BTUs 35 300 Transportation Renewables 30 Wind 250 25 Nuclear 200 20 Residential/Commercial 150 Coal 15 100 10 Industrial 5 50 Gas Oil 0 0 1990 2015 2040 1990 2015 2040ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
  • 6. Commercial Transportation Drives Demand Growth Commercial Personal MBDOE MBDOE 50 50 Rail 40 40 Marine 30 Aviation 30 20 20 Heavy Duty Light Duty Vehicles 10 Vehicles 10 0 0 1990 2015 2040 1990 2015 2040ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
  • 7. Energy Mix Continues to Evolve Quadrillion BTUs 250 0.9% 0.7% Average Growth / Yr. 2040 2010 - 2040 200 1.6% 2010 150 -0.2% 100 2.2% 0.3% 50 6.0% 1.6% 0 Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass/Other Wind / Solar / Hydro / Geo BiofuelsExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
  • 8. World Gas SupplyBCFD 150 150 Europe 150 North America 100 100 100 50 50 50 0 0 0 10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40 Russia/Caspian 10 20 30 40 150 100 150 50 100 0 150 50 10 20 30 40 150 Middle East 100 0 10 20 30 40 100 50 South America LNG 50 0 Pipeline 10 20 30 40 Unconventional 0 Asia Pacific Conventional 10 20 30 40 AfricaExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
  • 9. Global Gas Resource 8.1 •World: ~250 years coverage at current demand •Large unconventional gains anticipated 4.8 1.3 4.9 Europe OECD North America* Russia/Caspian* 4.11000 TCF 30 2.3 Middle East 25 Unconventional 2.6 20 Africa Asia Pacific 15 10 Conventional Latin America 5 0 WorldExxonMobil IEA; * IncludesEnergy Non OECD Source: 2012 Outlook for Europe
  • 10. CO2 Emissions Plateau By Region Emissions per Capita Billion Tons Tons per Person 40 20 2010 30 Rest of Non OECD 15 2025 India & Africa 2040 20 10 China 10 5 OECD 0 0 1990 2015 2040 U.S. Europe China IndiaExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
  • 11. Energy Use Evolves Over Time Global Percent Mix of Fuels Percent Other Renewables 100 Nuclear Hydro 80 Gas 60 Oil 40 20 Coal Biomass 0 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2040Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (1800-1960)
  • 12. Development Challenges and Solutions Increase Efficiency World development continues, while lives improve and economies grow ~9 billion people 130% increase in global GDP 30% increase in energy demand 500 quadrillion BTUs saved via efficiency All reliable, affordable energy supplies needed Mitigate Expand Emissions Supplies Technology