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Angelo prete solar_green_technology Angelo prete solar_green_technology Presentation Transcript

  • Grandi Impianti Fotovoltaici in Italia Autorizzazione, Realizzazione e Sfide di  Connessione Roma, Febbraio 2012This document is proprietary to Solar Green Technology SpA and the information contained herein is confidential. Without prior written permission, this document, either in whole or in part,must not be reproduced in any form or by any means. It may not be disclosed to any third party even for the purposes of evaluation, except as expressly authorized in each case
  • Agenda g Forme di incentivazione in Europa e in Italia Prospettive di investimento: cos’è cambiato Grid Parity come nuovo obiettivo di investimento Conclusioni This document is proprietary to Solar Green Technology SpA and the information contained herein is confidential. Without prior written permission, this document, either in whole or in part, must not be reproduced in any form or by any means. It may not be disclosed to any third party even for the purposes of evaluation, except as expressly authorized in each case2
  • Grandi Impianti e incentivi:  il quadro Europeo il quadro Europeo Da Aprile 2012: Da Gennaio 2012:  ‐ consistente taglio degli  Taglio tariffe del 15% per  incentivi per impianti da 4 a  impianti >1MWp 250 kWp Da Luglio 2011: g ‐ Ottenimento dell’incentivo  tramite asta per impianti oltre  100 kWp Maggio 2011: Maggio 2011:  ‐ Cap annuo per grandi impianti  Registro Grandi Impianti al suolo=160 MW Gennaio 2012:  ‐Raggiungimento cap di  ‐Raggiungimento cap di Da Gennaio 2012:  spesa (chiusura Registro) ‐ sospensione degli incentivi per  ‐Stop definitivo impianti su  tutti gli impianti FV tutti gli impianti FV terreno agricolo >1MW  terreno agricolo >1MW This document is proprietary to Solar Green Technology SpA and the information contained herein is confidential. Without prior written permission, this document, either in whole or in part, must not be reproduced in any form or by any means. It may not be disclosed to any third party even for the purposes of evaluation, except as expressly authorized in each case3
  • Grandi impianti in Italia Potenza installata annua grandi impianti 2500 Grandi impianti (1MW+) continuano a  2000 crescere considerevolmente tra il 2010 ed  970  II Sem 2011 il 2011 1500MW  1000 1.095 500 494 I Sem I Sem 2011 Numero annuo grandi impianti Numero annuo grandi impianti 1 102 700 14 0 600 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 273  500 II Sem 2011 Numero NB: Impianti «Salva Alcoa» pari a circa  400 il 68% delle grandi installazioni nel I  N 300 408  I Sem I Sem 2011 Semestre 2011 (36% del tot. 2011) S 2011 (36% d l 2011) 200 163 100 39 Fonte: Gse, 2012. Elaborazione dati: Solar Green  1 6 0 Technology 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 This document is proprietary to Solar Green Technology SpA and the information contained herein is confidential. Without prior written permission, this document, either in whole or in part, must not be reproduced in any form or by any means. It may not be disclosed to any third party even for the purposes of evaluation, except as expressly authorized in each case4
  • Altri impianti in Italia Potenza installata annua altri impianti Anche gli impianti di taglia media‐ g p g 8000 piccola (<1MW) continuano a  7000 3.232  crescere rispetto al 2010 ma in  II Sem 2011 6000 misura minore rispetto ai Grandi  5000 Impianti MW 4000 2.976 4.207  3000 I Sem 2012 2000 Numero annuo altri impianti 1.042 1000 417 86 180000 0 160000 78.563 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 140000 II Sem 2011 II S 120000 NB: Impianti «Salva Alcoa» pari a circa il  99.648 Numero 100000 70% delle installazioni <1MW nel I  80000 71.249 93.383 93 383 Semestre 2011 (40% del tot. 2011) 60000 I Sem 2011 40000 32.012 20000 7.646 Fonte: Gse, 2012. Elaborazione dati: Solar Green  0 Technology 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 This document is proprietary to Solar Green Technology SpA and the information contained herein is confidential. Without prior written permission, this document, either in whole or in part, must not be reproduced in any form or by any means. It may not be disclosed to any third party even for the purposes of evaluation, except as expressly authorized in each case5
  • L’Effetto Salva‐Alcoa Potenza installata annua grandi impianti 2000 970  970 2000 II Sem 2011 1500 1500 Salva Alcoa +6% MW  +420% 970 1000 1000 746 1.095 494 I Sem I Sem 2011 500 500 102 1 14 102 494 349 1 14 0 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Potenza installata annua altri impianti 8000 3.232  6000 Salva Alcoa ‐25% 6000 II Sem 2011 +250% 2974 4000 W MW 4000 2.976 4.207  3232 I Sem 2012 2000 2000 1.042 2976 417 86 417 1042 86 1233 0 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Fonte: Gse, 2012. Elaborazione dati: Solar Green Technology L effetto distorsivo del Salva Alcoa nasconde lo stallo nel I Sem 2011 L’effetto distorsivo del Salva Alcoa nasconde lo stallo nel I Sem 2011 This document is proprietary to Solar Green Technology SpA and the information contained herein is confidential. Without prior written permission, this document, either in whole or in part, must not be reproduced in any form or by any means. It may not be disclosed to any third party even for the purposes of evaluation, except as expressly authorized in each case6
  • Grandi impianti in Italia:  effetti del IV CE effetti del IV CE Taglia media impianti – Trend ‘08‐’11 Taglia media impianti >1MW (in kWp)2,00450 35001,50400 30003501,00 25003000,50 +240% 20002500,00 200‐0,50 +150% 1500 150‐1,00 1000 100‐1,50 500 2008 2009 2010 I 2011 II 2011 0 Totale Grandi Altri 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Salva Alcoa Fonte: Gse, 2012. Elaborazione dati: Solar Green Technology ‐ L t li La taglia media degli impianti <1MW diminuisce considerevolmente nel II  di d li i i ti 1MW di i i id l t l II Semestre 2011 ‐ Grandi impianti in netta controtendenza Grandi impianti in netta controtendenza ‐ La taglia media dei grandi impianti in Italia rimane relativamente contenuta  (≈3,2MW) (≈3 2MW) This document is proprietary to Solar Green Technology SpA and the information contained herein is confidential. Without prior written permission, this document, either in whole or in part, must not be reproduced in any form or by any means. It may not be disclosed to any third party even for the purposes of evaluation, except as expressly authorized in each case
  • Grandi Impianti e incentivi:  In sintesi In sintesi EU ‐ Severi tagli agli incentivi, specialmente sui grandi impianti ‐ C Concentrazione degli incentivi su impianti realizzati su tetto  t i d li i ti i i i ti li ti t tt ancor meglio se per autoconsumo ITA ‐ Impossibilità fattuale di realizzare grandi impianti a partire dal  II Semestre 2012 (chiusura registro) ‐ Necessità di spostare l’attenzione dei grandi impianti sulla Necessità di spostare l attenzione dei grandi impianti sulla  tariffa omnicomprensiva del 2013 prima del vincolo del  Registro This document is proprietary to Solar Green Technology SpA and the information contained herein is confidential. Without prior written permission, this document, either in whole or in part, must not be reproduced in any form or by any means. It may not be disclosed to any third party even for the purposes of evaluation, except as expressly authorized in each case8
  • Agenda g Forme di incentivazione in Europa e in Italia Prospettive di investimento: cos’è cambiato Grid Parity come nuovo obiettivo di investimento Conclusioni This document is proprietary to Solar Green Technology SpA and the information contained herein is confidential. Without prior written permission, this document, either in whole or in part, must not be reproduced in any form or by any means. It may not be disclosed to any third party even for the purposes of evaluation, except as expressly authorized in each case9
  • Grandi impianti e convenienza  finanziaria: un esempio finanziaria: un esempio Luogo di installazione: Livorno Potenza impianto: 5 MW p Px EPC 2011= 2900€/kWp Tipologia: A terra Px EPC 2011= 1900€/kWp Leva finanziaria: 80/20 Tasso Interesse 5% Tasso Interesse 7% Hp 1: connessione Febbraio 2011 Hp 2: connessione Febbraio 2012 Incentivo 0,313€/kWh , / ‐50% Incentivo 0,156€/kWh Incentivo 0,156€/kWh IRR Unlevered 10,41% ‐18% IRR Unlevered 8,56% Payback period impianto (anni) 9,6 Payback period impianto (anni) 11,7 Equity IRR 29,41% 29 41% ‐55% 55% Equity IRR 13,09% 13 09% Payback period equity (anni) 3,4 Payback period equity (anni) 7,6 DSCR MEDIO 1,44 DSCR MEDIO 1,19 Perdita di appeal del grande impianto FV  come strumento finanziario  This document is proprietary to Solar Green Technology SpA and the information contained herein is confidential. Without prior written permission, this document, either in whole or in part,10 must not be reproduced in any form or by any means. It may not be disclosed to any third party even for the purposes of evaluation, except as expressly authorized in each case
  • Convenienza finanziaria: non solo colpa del IV CE… non solo colpa del IV CE Andamento dello Spread BTP‐Bund Effetto Italia Febbraio 2011‐Gennaio 2012 ‐ Aumento tassi di interesse bancari  (investitori italiani) +300% ‐ Necessità di Cash Flow più elevati  per garantire buon livello di DSCR +164% Effetto Estero EFFETTO SPREAD ‐ Aumento del «rischio paese»  percepito (investitori esteri) Fonte: Bloomberg, 2012. Elaborazione dati: Solar Green Technology ‐ Innalzamento della soglia di  redditività richiesta dagli investitori  This document is proprietary to Solar Green Technology SpA and the information contained herein is confidential. Without prior written permission, this document, either in whole or in part,11 must not be reproduced in any form or by any means. It may not be disclosed to any third party even for the purposes of evaluation, except as expressly authorized in each case
  • Agenda g Forme di incentivazione in Europa e in Italia Prospettive di investimento: cos’è cambiato Grid Parity come nuovo obiettivo di investimento Grid Parity tra mito e realtà Conclusioni This document is proprietary to Solar Green Technology SpA and the information contained herein is confidential. Without prior written permission, this document, either in whole or in part,12must not be reproduced in any form or by any means. It may not be disclosed to any third party even for the purposes of evaluation, except as expressly authorized in each case
  • Grid parity:  possibile per i grandi impianti? possibile per i grandi impianti? Progressivo abbandono di forme di  feed‐in tariff per i grandi impianti Il nuovo orizzonte di  Possibilità (necessità) di adottare  investimento deve  investimento deve forme di incentivazione diverse prescindere dalle  g logiche di sussidio di  carattere governativo   Ipotesi: accesso dei grandi impianti al  meccanismo dei Certificati Verdi i d i C tifi ti V di This document is proprietary to Solar Green Technology SpA and the information contained herein is confidential. Without prior written permission, this document, either in whole or in part,13 must not be reproduced in any form or by any means. It may not be disclosed to any third party even for the purposes of evaluation, except as expressly authorized in each case
  • Grid parity:  Certificati Verdi e Mercato Elettrico Certificati Verdi e Mercato Elettrico Prezzo Medio Energia sul Mercato Elettrico  Prezzo di collocamento sul mercato dei CV  (€/MWh) (€/MWh) 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 F1  F1 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2011 Fonte: Gme, 2012 ed AEEG. Elaborazione dati: Solar Green Technology Px Elettricità Fascia  P El tt i ità F i Px Certificati Verdi  ifi i di Ricavo da Vendita EE  Ri d V di EE F1= 0,082€/kWh + 2012= 0,074€/kWh = e CV= 0,156€/kWh ≈ Incentivo >5MWp impianto a terra I Semestre 2014 = 0,158€/kWh I Semestre 2014 0 158€/kWh This document is proprietary to Solar Green Technology SpA and the information contained herein is confidential. Without prior written permission, this document, either in whole or in part,14 must not be reproduced in any form or by any means. It may not be disclosed to any third party even for the purposes of evaluation, except as expressly authorized in each case
  • Grid Parity: Punti salienti  Punti salienti • Incrementi di efficienza della tecnologia p g • Drastica riduzione del Costo di produzione dell’energia FV…                       • …in netta controtendenza rispetto alle fonti energetiche tradizionali • Cambio di prospettiva: da Investitore a Produttore di Energia Cambio di prospettiva: da Investitore a Produttore di Energia • Adeguati strumenti di politica energetica possono salvaguardare la  convenienza degli investimenti Large‐Scale • Necessario creare un meccanismo protetto da instabilità legislative This document is proprietary to Solar Green Technology SpA and the information contained herein is confidential. Without prior written permission, this document, either in whole or in part,15 must not be reproduced in any form or by any means. It may not be disclosed to any third party even for the purposes of evaluation, except as expressly authorized in each case
  • Agenda g Forme di incentivazione in Europa e in Italia Prospettive di investimento: cos’è cambiato Grid Parity come nuovo obiettivo di investimento Conclusioni Conclusioni This document is proprietary to Solar Green Technology SpA and the information contained herein is confidential. Without prior written permission, this document, either in whole or in part,16 must not be reproduced in any form or by any means. It may not be disclosed to any third party even for the purposes of evaluation, except as expressly authorized in each case
  • Conclusioni I Paesi UE (Italia in testa) scoraggiano la realizzazione di  I Paesi UE (Italia in testa) scoraggiano la realizzazione di grandi impianti in un’ottica meramente speculativa Condizioni legislative e finanziarie premiano il  fotovoltaico mirato al soddisfacimento dei fabbisogni  fotovoltaico mirato al soddisfacimento dei fabbisogni energetici La Grid Parity per grandi impianti è a portata di mano (a condizione di una corretta strutturazione delle logiche  (a condizione di una corretta strutturazione delle logiche autorizzative e di accesso al mercato delle FER) This document is proprietary to Solar Green Technology SpA and the information contained herein is confidential. Without prior written permission, this document, either in whole or in part,17 must not be reproduced in any form or by any means. It may not be disclosed to any third party even for the purposes of evaluation, except as expressly authorized in each case
  • Grazie per l’attenzione p This document is proprietary to Solar Green Technology SpA and the information contained herein is confidential. Without prior written permission, this document, either in whole or in part,18 must not be reproduced in any form or by any means. It may not be disclosed to any third party even for the purposes of evaluation, except as expressly authorized in each case