Forotex 2011 cash johnson

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Forotex 2011 cash johnson

  1. 1. Trade Negotiations UPDATE <ul><li>Cass Johnson </li></ul><ul><li>NCTO </li></ul><ul><li>FOROTEX 2011 </li></ul>
  2. 2. Trade Update <ul><li>China loses share of U.S. market for the first time. </li></ul><ul><li>Lower cost Asian suppliers reap benefits, but so do Western Hemisphere suppliers. </li></ul><ul><li>Western Hemisphere: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>New trend after decade of declines </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Volume and market share increase </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Duty costs, fast response and new capabilities create new interest. </li></ul></ul>
  3. 3. After Long Slide, West Hemisphere is Now Moving Up
  4. 4. <ul><li>Developing countries’ internal apparel and home textile consumption trends - China </li></ul><ul><li>Substantial raw material cost increases occur globally—not just cotton – enhance duty free benefits </li></ul><ul><li>Rising energy and transport costs in Asia </li></ul><ul><li>Labor cost escalation across Asia with lower wage escalation in Western Hemisphere. </li></ul><ul><li>Apparel labor availability in China shrinks, while turnover increases. </li></ul><ul><li>Heightened U.S. speed-to-market demand. </li></ul>Global Sourcing Shift Drivers
  5. 5. <ul><li>At Magic Show, Western Hemisphere suppliers quadrupled their presence – Executive Sourcing Summit on Western Hemisphere: “Way Beyond the Basics” </li></ul><ul><li>JC Penney’s, Abercrombie & Fitch, VF, Men’s Warehouse, Kohls, Walmart, Dollar Store are all increasing sourcing from the region </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Performance outerwear/activewear, men’s suits, fast fashion/jr women’s, designer jeans </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Denimatrix, Guatemala: Winner, U.S. State ACE Award (Award for Corporate Excellence) </li></ul><ul><li>Launched New CAFTA-DR Sourcing Database </li></ul><ul><li>www.DRCAFTASourcing.com </li></ul>Regional Developments
  6. 6. Policy Issues <ul><li>Except for Korea, Colombia FTAs, no new significant U.S. trade legislation expected before U.S. election </li></ul><ul><li>Duty-free for Bangladesh and Cambodia very unlikely </li></ul><ul><li>With passage of Senate currency bill, new pressure on China to revalue faster </li></ul><ul><li>TPP (Vietnam) on slow track with many problematic issues, including textiles </li></ul>
  7. 7. State of TPP Negotiations <ul><li>After 10 rounds, U.S. wants TPP done by July 2012: post U.S. elections more likely </li></ul><ul><li>Japan, Mexico and Canada want to join – adding complications to talks. </li></ul><ul><li>Many difficult areas: state-owned enterprises, labor, competition chapter, textiles and apparel, agriculture. </li></ul><ul><li>A FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT – last “FTA” </li></ul><ul><li>On Textiles : </li></ul><ul><li>U.S. proposing a “yarn forward” rule </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Vietnam opposing; first time in an FTA </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>New Zealand, Aust. also opposing </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Strong importer opposition </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Peru supporting; Malaysia somewhat supportive </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Other key textile issues unresolved: market access, customs enforcement, short supply </li></ul>
  8. 8. Vietnam & Textiles <ul><li>2 nd largest apparel supplier to U.S. ($6.6 bil) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Now two times larger than Mexico </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Concentrates on U.S. – 55 percent of apparel exports </li></ul></ul><ul><li>VINATEX is the 10 th largest garment producer in the world – expanding rapidly </li></ul><ul><li>Uses mostly foreign yarns and fabrics (China) </li></ul><ul><li>Apparel exports to U.S. have more than doubled over last five years – up 10 % YTD SME (world – 0%); projected to double again by 2020 (full duty scenario). </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Average export prices have fallen 28% over last five years </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Vietnam prices would be significantly below CAFTA levels if duties are taken out. </li></ul></ul>
  9. 9. Vietnam’s Government & Textiles <ul><li>Five Year Plan for Textiles </li></ul><ul><li>21 subsidy programs – none notified to U.S. per U.S.-Vietnam WTO agreement on textiles </li></ul><ul><li>Vinatex NOT privatized – gov still controls main holding company </li></ul><ul><li>Loan discounts, state financing, free or discounted land, preferential tax reductions, subsidies for research and development, export promotion subsidies. . . </li></ul><ul><li>More info on TPP: www.ncto.org - issues </li></ul>
  10. 12. VITA’s Apparel World Export Projections (bil)
  11. 13. ‘ Yarn Forward’ TPP Activities <ul><li>Joint industry effort during Chicago round </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Guatemala, El Salvador, U.S. industry presentations/meetings </li></ul></ul><ul><li>25 trade associations from U.S., CAFTA, NAFTA, Andean, Haiti & AGOA countries urge tough textile rules – over 2 million workers </li></ul><ul><li>52 textile supporters in Congress send letter </li></ul>
  12. 14. Questions? <ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul><ul><li>+202-822-8025 </li></ul><ul><li>www.ncto.org </li></ul>

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