40Years Of
Intelligence
Expertise
Distilled
The Article: What I learned in 40 years…
 Author: Martin Peterson
 CIA
 FullTitle: “What I learned in
40 years of doing...
“Five FundamentalTruths”
 The product is optional equipment
 “It is not surprising then that policymakers do not always ...
“Five FundamentalTruths”
 Our collective credibility rides on every piece of
intelligence that goes out the door…
 “Our ...
“Six EssentialTruths”
1) How one thinks about the mission affects deeply how one does the
mission
2) Intelligence failures...
Service vs. Product Mentality
 “A service mentality is the opposite of a product
mentality, which often seems to drive th...
Competitive Intelligence…Resources
 The “Competitive Intel” Podcast
 Available on iTunes,Stitcher Radio, etc.
 Episodes...
Cascade Insights
“Insight that drives better decision making…”
We provide competitive intelligence services to B2B
technol...
Contact Info:
info@cascadeinsights.com
503.898.0004
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40 Years of Intelligence Expertise - Distilled...

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During this presentation we cover the Five Fundamental Truths and the Six Essential Truths from one of the most important articles you can ever read about intelligence collection and analysis - "What I learned in 40 years of doing intelligence analysis for foreign policy makers..."

In short, we've tried to distill this article into a few key points, all of which are relevant to the world of business today.

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  • 1)
    The president’s day is actually planned in 5 minute increments
    I the policymaker (business decision maker) am smart why should I spend my time on industry analysis?
    Speaking truth to power requires access to power

    2)

    One can fight over what was said in a meeting but the written product is forever
    Reflect our level of confidence every time

    3)

    it’s successes will be secret and its failures trumpeted

    4)

    Our reputation for analytic rigor, objectivity, and total integrity

    5)

    - Have to establish credibility with each new individual
  • 1)
    The president’s day is actually planned in 5 minute increments
    I the policymaker (business decision maker) am smart why should I spend my time on industry analysis?
    Speaking truth to power requires access to power

    2)

    One can fight over what was said in a meeting but the written product is forever
    Reflect our level of confidence every time

    3)

    it’s successes will be secret and its failures trumpeted

    4)

    Our reputation for analytic rigor, objectivity, and total integrity

    5)

    - Have to establish credibility with each new individual
  • 1)

    “bounding uncertainty” – helps make my guy smarter than their guy

    2)

    What are we “not seeing” that we would expect to see if our analysis was correct?
    The history and culture of the organizations we target

    3)

    Have in mind a precise audience and a intelligence question to tackle
    Think in terms of answering well defined questions first
    Write after you have done all the thinking

    4)

    More about putting facts in perspective than having command of the facts
    Sources are not the same as knowledge
    I am looking for things that did not make sense then but do now

    5)

    Lesson 1 and 2 are the key to making #5 work

    6)

    - Reward the behavior your profess to value – if your vision extends one year – grow wheat, if it extends 10 years plant trees, if 10,000 years grow men.
  • Transcript of "40 Years of Intelligence Expertise - Distilled..."

    1. 1. 40Years Of Intelligence Expertise Distilled
    2. 2. The Article: What I learned in 40 years…  Author: Martin Peterson  CIA  FullTitle: “What I learned in 40 years of doing intelligence analysis for US Foreign Policymakers…”  Contains: Martin’s:  Five Fundamental Truths  Six Essential Truths
    3. 3. “Five FundamentalTruths”  The product is optional equipment  “It is not surprising then that policymakers do not always see how we can help them: “After all, I, the policymaker, am smart and have excellent sources of information (including all the ones you have), and I am very busy, so why should I spend some of my most precious commodity on you?”  The written product is forever  “Once it is printed, there is no taking it back or modifying it.”  The public does not segregate success or failure  “…in the intelligence business success is transitory, and failure is permanent.” https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/csi-studies/studies/vol.-55-no.-1/what-i-learned-in-40-years-of-doing- intelligence-analysis-for-us-foreign-policymakers.html
    4. 4. “Five FundamentalTruths”  Our collective credibility rides on every piece of intelligence that goes out the door…  “Our ability to “raise the level of the debate” or to “help policymakers make the best decisions possible” or to “speak truth to power”—however one defines the mission—rests on one thing and one thing only: our reputations for analytic rigor, objectivity, and total integrity. Lose that and we lose everything.”  Our customers are smarter and more sophisticated than we give them credit for, they have their own independent sources of information and analysis which we are competing  “We have to establish our credibility and usefulness individual by individual, administration by administration.” https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/csi-studies/studies/vol.-55-no.-1/what-i-learned-in-40-years-of-doing- intelligence-analysis-for-us-foreign-policymakers.html
    5. 5. “Six EssentialTruths” 1) How one thinks about the mission affects deeply how one does the mission 2) Intelligence failures come from an inability to step back and think about: a) UnderlyingTrends, Forces, and Assumptions – not from failing to connect the dots 3) Good Analysis makes the complex comprehensible which is not the same thing as simple 4) No substitute for knowing the domain 5) Intelligence starts when we stop reporting on events in our area and start explaining them 6) Managers of intelligence analysts get the behavior they reward https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/csi-studies/studies/vol.-55-no.-1/what-i-learned-in-40-years-of-doing- intelligence-analysis-for-us-foreign-policymakers.html
    6. 6. Service vs. Product Mentality  “A service mentality is the opposite of a product mentality, which often seems to drive the work of intelligence analysis…”  “In a product mentality, the focus is on the producer, who thinks of a product as his or hers. It is also about packaging that product and disseminating it widely. Success is measured in numbers—how many units were produced or how many received each unit.”  “Forty years of experience have taught me that failing to identify a specific audience and an intelligence question up front is often at the root of the weakest analytic efforts.”  “Success is measured not by the number of units produced, but by how well the product addresses and answers the specific concerns of an identified and targeted audience.” https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/csi-studies/studies/vol.-55-no.-1/what-i-learned-in-40-years-of-doing- intelligence-analysis-for-us-foreign-policymakers.html
    7. 7. Competitive Intelligence…Resources  The “Competitive Intel” Podcast  Available on iTunes,Stitcher Radio, etc.  Episodes have covered topics such as mining modern data sources and effective research methods, analysis topics, etc.  Going Beyond Google: Gathering Internet Intelligence – 5th Edition  Our book focused on mining modern data sources  Listed as a must read by the Strategic and Competitive Intelligence Professionals society as early as it’s 1st edition.  Past Conference Presentations  We’ve been fortunate to be asked to speak on 5 continents and have delivered a variety of competitive and market intelligence talks at conferences and events around the world.  In fact we deliver over 25+ talks a year to various industry associations and groups To learn more about any of the above go to: www.cascadeinsights.com/resources
    8. 8. Cascade Insights “Insight that drives better decision making…” We provide competitive intelligence services to B2B technology companies. Companies use our competitive and market insights to: • Outflank the Competition • Capitalize on New Opportunities
    9. 9. Contact Info: info@cascadeinsights.com 503.898.0004

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