Google Cleantech 2030

Google Cleantech 2030 1

Agenda 0 INTRODUCTION 1 US BASELINE ENERGY SCENARIO 2006-2030 2 TRANSFORMING THE ELECTRICITY GENERATING SECTOR 3 TRANSFORMING THE PERSONAL VEHICLE SECTOR 4 ECONOMICAL FEASIBILITY AND CO2 EMISSIONS IMPACT 2

What is « Clean Energy 2030 » • A plan/a path proposed by Google so as to: – Weaning the US off the coal and oil for electricity generation by 2030 with some remaining use of natural gas and nuclear – Cutting oil use for cars by 40% – Cutting CO2 emissions by 50% in 2030 • A proposal aimed at stimulating debate 3

The Opportunity • To transform the US economy from one running on fossil fuels to one largely based on clean energy – Technologies and know how are available today or under development – Whole new industries can be built creating million of new jobs – Energy cost can be cut both at the pump and at home – National energy security can be improved and the impact on the climate can be mitigated 4

US Baseline Reference - Energy from 70 QBtu and 6000 Mill teq CO2 in 2006 (actual numbers) to 85 QBtu and 700 Mill teq CO2 in 2030 (projection) • Energy Production • Energy Consumption – Primary Energy Production: 86 QBtu (’30) vs 71 QBtu (’06) – Consumption:118 QBtu (’30) vs 99 QBtu (’06) • Petroleum: 14 vs 13 • Liquid Fuels: 44 vs 40 • NG: 20 vs 19 • NG: 23 vs 22 • Coal: 28 vs 24 • Coal: 30 vs 22 • Nuclear: 10 vs 8 • Nuclear: 10 vs 8 • Hydro: 3 vs 3 • Hydro: 3 vs 3 • Biomass: 8 vs 3 • Biomass: 5 vs 3 • Other Renewable: 3 vs 1 • Other Renewable: 3 vs 1 – Net Imports: 32 QBtu vs 30 QBtu • Petroleum: 27 vs 27 (or 12 Mill Barrels /day) • NG: 4 vs 4 (or 4 Trill ft3) FOSSIL FUEL BASED ENERGY ECONOMY • Coal/Others: 1 vs -1 (85%) • Energy Prices (2006 dollars) – Imported light crude oil: $70 vs $66 / barrel 2030: +20% // COAL – Imported crude oil: $60 vs $60 / barrel – Domestic NG at wellhead: $6 vs $6 / 1000 ft3 HIGH CO2 EMISSIONS (20% OF GLOBAL – Domestic coal at minemouth: $24 vs $24 / ton – Average Elec price: 9 cents vs 9 cents / kWh ENERGY RELATED CO2 EMISSIONS) • Emissions – 6900 vs 6000 Millions teq CO2 • Petroleum: 2800 vs 2600 Mill teq CO2 • NG: 1200 vs 1200 Mill teq CO2 6 • Coal: 2850 vs 2150 Mill teq CO2

US Baseline Reference - Electricity from 4000 TWh and 2400 Mill teq CO2 in 2006 (actual numbers) to 5200 TWh and 3000 Mill teq CO2 in 2030 (projection) • Electricity Production • Electricity Consumption – Generation: 5200 TWh (’30) vs 4050 TWh (’06) – Consumption: 5000 TWh (’30) vs 3800 TWh (’06) • Petroleum: 50 vs 100 • Residential: 1700 vs 1350 • NG: 500 vs 550 • Commercial: 2000 vs 1300 • Coal: 2800 vs 2000 • Industrial: 1000 vs 1000 • Nuclear: 900 vs 800 • Transportation: 10 vs 5 • Renewable: 550 vs 300 • Other (Direct Use): 300 vs 150 • Other (CHP, End User): 400 vs 300 • Electricity Prices (2006 dollars) • Electricity Prices (2006 dollars) – Residential: 10.5c vs 9.7c / kWh – Generation: 6c vs 5.5c / kWh – Commercial: 8.9c vs 8.9c / kWh – Transmission: 0.8c vs 0.6c / kWh – Industrial: 6.0c vs 5.9c / kWh – Distribution: 2.2c vs 2.3c / kWh – Transportation: 10.0c vs 10.5c / kWh • Emission: FOSSIL FUEL BASED ELECTRICITY (70%) – 3000 vs 2400 Mill teq CO2 2030: +25% // COAL RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL 7

US Baseline Reference Electrical Generation Capacity & Liquid Fuels Consumption • ElectrIcal Generating Capacity • Liquid Fuels Consumption – Electrical Generating Capacity: 1100GW (’30) vs – Consumption: 23 Mill Barrels/day (’30) 900GW (’06) vs 20.5 Mill Barrels/day (’06) • Oil & NG Steam: 90 vs 120 • Domestic Crude Oil: 5.5 vs 5 • Combustion TG / Diesel: 160 vs 130 • Other Domestic Prod : 5 vs 3 • Combined Cycle: 180 vs 140 • Net Imports: 12.5 vs 12.5 • Coal: 400 vs 300 • Nuclear: 115 vs 100 – Petroleum is used at 70% (15 Mill • Renewable: 130 vs 90 Barrels/day) for transport related • Other: 25 vs 20 energy use – Projected Additional Capacity by 2030: 240 GW • Conventional Fuel Vehicles: 22 mpg – Projected Retirement by 2030: 40 GW • 15 Million Vehicles sold per year • 20 years Vehicle Turnover 2030: +20% // COAL, PETROLEUM PETROLEUM DEDICATED FOR TRANSPORT (70%). ALMOST NOT USED FOR ELEC GENERATION US VEHICLE FLEET: CONVENTIONAL WITH LOW 8 FUEL EFFICIENCY

Google Cleantech 2030 Scenario Main Idea: Transforming the Electricity Sector COAL, COAL, COAL ELECTRICAL DEMAND IN 2030: +25% WIND, SOLAR, GEOTHERMAL ELIMINATE COAL, OIL AND ½ NG FROM ELEC GENERATION KEEP ELECTRICAL DEMAND FLAT AT 2008 LEVEL 10

Google Cleantech 2030 US Electrical Generation Scenario Wind from 20 GW to 380 GW Solar from 1 GW to 250 GW Geothermal from 2 GW to 80 GW Eliminate Coal and Oil Capacities Cut NG Capacity by half 1200 GW of capacity generating 4000 TWh /yr FOSSIL FUEL BASED ELEC GEN: -88% 11

Google Cleantech 2030 Transforming the Electrical Sector: Feasibility • KEEPING THE DEMAND FLAT • REBUILDING THE ELECTRICAL GENERATING CAPACITY • BUILD UP EFFORT • DEMONSTRATION: – 700 renewable GW effort (actual installed cap = 900 GW) – Research Papers • Very rapid build-ups – Detailed Mc Kinsey Analysis for the US government – BUT NOT WITHOUT PRECEDENT IN HISTORY gives indication • Between 1998-2006, 200 GW of NG cap were added to the US grid • In 2002, at its peak 60 GW of NG cap were brought online • In the 70s and 80s, nuclear energy went from 0 GW to 100 GW installed with peak • SAMPLE OF MEASURES growth of 10 GW/yr – Aggressive appliance standards and building codes – “Decoupling\" of utility profits from sales • RESOURCE AVAILABILITY & MANUFACTURING – Incentives for energy efficiency investments – Recent DOE study: feasibility of deploying 300 GW of wind by 2030 (wind resource ample for the task, impact on manufacturing not overwhelming) – Deployment of a \"smart\" electricity grid that empowers – Other studies for solar and geothermal consumers and businesses to manage their electricity use more effectively • TRANSMISSION – Wind and solar main resources would be located far from population centers (Great Plains and Desert Southwest). – About 20,000 miles of new transmission capacity would be required to support onshore wind and CSP projects. – Today 200,000 miles of HV transmission exist in the US • SAMPLE OF MEASURE – National renewable portfolio standard, carbon price, long-term tax credits and incentives, etc – Adequate grid resources to manage large-scale intermittent generation and adequate transmission capacity – Public and private renewable energy R&D and investment to achieve cost parity with fossil generation in next several years 12

Google Cleantech 2030 Scenario Main Idea: Transforming the Personal Vehicle Sector CONVENTIONAL VEHICLES LOW FUEL EFFICIENCY SLOW VEHICLES TURNOVER PLUG IN, ALL ELECTRICAL VEHICLES HIGHER FUEL EFFICIENCY FASTER VEHICLES TURNOVER 14

Google Cleantech 2030 Personal Vehicles Plan Actual Sales: 15 Mill CV per year From 100,000 PV & EV per yr in 2010 to 22 Mill in 2030 Vehicle Turnover: from 20 years to 13 years Improved CV Fuel Efficiency: from 22 mpg to 45 mpg in 2030 PV Fuel Efficiency: half of CV gasoline comsumption EV Fuel Efficiency: no gasoline consumption VEHICLE OIL CONSUMPTION: - 38% OIL DEPENDENCY: - 33%

Google Cleantech 2030 Personal Vehicles Plan Feasibility • Deploying Plug-in Vehicles and All Electrical Vehicles – Feedbates, manufacturer incentives – Lower fuel costs • Improving fuel efficiency of Conventional Vehicles – Currently 22 mpg – Industry experts: bet. 40 and 50 mpg achievable in 2030 – Europe mandate: 45 mpg by 2012 • Accelerated Vehicle turnover – Vehicle buy-back and fuel savings 16

Google Cleantech 2030 CO2 Emissions CO2 EMISSIONS VS BASELINE: - 48% CO2 EMISSIONS VS 2008 LEVEL: - 40% HALFWAY THROUGH IPCC TARGET FOR 2050 : - 80% 18

Google Cleantech 2030 Economic Feasibility 25 c/kWh (one time) $2 /W (W)to $6 /W (PV) dec $0.3 /W (wind and CSP) $20 /MWh (wind and solar) $5,000 PV / $10,000 EV 7 c /kWh $3,000 for 45 mpg / 22 mpg $5,000 by vehicles 10 c/kWh $2 /MBtu up to $10 / MBtu $1 /W (NG) to $2 /W (coal) $4 /gal up to $8 / gal in ‘30 $4 /gal up to $8 / gal in ‘30 Projected Cost of the Plan over 22 yrs: $4,400 Billion* $20 /teq to $40 /teq in ‘30 Savings Projected over 22 years: $5,400 Billion* (CO2 excluded) US GDP ~ $10,000 Billion 19 *2008 dollars -> undiscounted

Google Cleantech 2030

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