Loudoun Housing Fulton End 2008

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Loudoun Housing Fulton Report for the end of2008

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Loudoun Housing Fulton End 2008

  1. 1. Loudoun County Housing Market Analysis December 2008 Data Prepared by Senior Consultant, Rosemary deButts (MIRM) FULTON RESEARCH  AND CONSULTING, INC. 11350 Random  Hills Road Suite 330 Fairfax, VA  22030   540.338.2212 Direct 1.703.673.9950 Fax  www.fultonresearch.com
  2. 2. Loudoun County Housing Market Analysis Executive Summary Zip Code Sales Month's Supply Inventory Median Sales Price Average DOMP Dec 08 vs Nov 08 vs Dec 07 Dec 08 vs Nov 08 vs Dec 07 Dec 08 vs Nov 08 vs Dec 07 Dec 08 vs Nov 08 vs Dec 07 Loudoun 407 20% 9% 5.3 ‐11% ‐38% $315,000 4% ‐23% 101 7% ‐3% Aldie 20105 20 82% 82% 4.5 ‐48% ‐61% $505,699 5% 37% 105 192% 94% Middleburg 20117 2 ‐33% ‐50% 30.0 48% 122% $839,950 2% 125% 363 125% 25% Purcellville 20132 11 22% ‐35% 12.0 ‐22% 19% $458,455 37% 0% 163 44% 9% Round Hill 20141 7 ‐22% 75% 10.1 14% ‐49% $310,000 ‐3% ‐50% 273 207% 221% Ashburn 20147 51 31% 2% 4.6 ‐16% ‐43% $362,160 7% ‐3% 79 ‐8% ‐16% Ashburn 20148 28 180% ‐36% 6.0 ‐61% 31% $524,991 13% 8% 62 19% 15% Chantilly 20152 28 22% ‐10% 5.4 ‐5% ‐18% $463,924 5% ‐18% 61 ‐9% ‐26% Hamilton 20158 10 233% 400% 2.9 ‐78% ‐90% $833,470 30% 78% 198 ‐11% 106% Sterling 20164 84 29% 87% 3.9 2% ‐68% $208,062 8% ‐30% 84 ‐7% ‐33% Sterling 20165 34 21% 17% 3.9 ‐6% ‐51% $388,147 26% ‐3% 112 13% 6% Dulles 20166 13 18% 86% 4.7 17% ‐54% $376,090 34% 13% 58 ‐27% ‐49% Leesburg 20175 40 43% 43% 5.5 ‐29% ‐46% $390,188 26% ‐16% 113 9% ‐8% Lucketts 20176 75 53% 63% 5.2 ‐32% ‐59% $415,736 51% 9% 110 ‐6% ‐11% Lovettsville 20180 2 ‐67% ‐60% 34.0 219% 62% $519,450 25% 22% 340 204% 110% Waterford 20197 2 0% 0% 21.5 ‐4% 16% $722,350 416% ‐11% 58 ‐79% 81% Source:  MRIS Black font indicates an improvement; red font indicates a loss Twelve Month Trend (as shown by blue lines on the following pages); positive indicators shown in dark blue type Total Sales UP Increased 20% from November after five consecutive months of declines Detached Sales Down December's 188 sales of detached units was 15.3% less than the 2008 average Attached Sales UP Sales of attached units exceeded sales of detached units for the last three consecutive months Condo Sales Flat Averaging 22 units per month in 2008 compared to 27 in 2007 (‐18.5%) Median Sales Price Down December's median was $59,950 below the 12‐month high in February 2008 Avg Close Price:  Detached Down Decreased in December by $81,846 (‐14.4%) since the high in January 2008 Avg Close Price:  Attached Down Decreased in December by $85,899 (‐25.1%) since the high in January 2008 Avg Close Price:  Condo Flat The December average was 24.5% below the high recorded in October (‐$64,994) Close Price to List Price % UP Exceeded 90% nine of twelve months in 2008 Supply of Inventory (MSI) DOWN Less than six months for the last seven consecutive months; the 2007 average was 8.3 months Days on Market DOWN The year‐end average was 4.9% less than the 2007 average Short Sales, Foreclosure Solds Up Jumped 40.3% in December from November Short Sales, Foreclosure Listings Up Jumped 35% in December from November Page 2 of 15
  3. 3. Loudoun County Housing Analysis Notes concerning the data in this analysis 1. As of October 31, 2008, zip code 20184 (Upperville) is included in 20117 (Middleburg); 20135 (Bluemont) is included in 20141 (Round Hill); 20129  (Paeonian Springs) is included in 20197 (Waterford); and 22066 (Great Falls) is included in 20165 (Sterling). 2. As of October 31, 2008, list price refers to quot;original list pricequot;. 3. House types excluded from this analysis include quot;bed & breakfastquot;, quot;mobilequot;, quot;otherquot;, quot;garage/park spacequot;, quot;house of worshipquot;, quot;dwelling w/rentalquot;, quot;double  widequot;, quot;vacation homequot;, or quot;vacation rentalquot;.  4. Year‐to‐Date price stratification analysis added November 30, 2008. 5. Sales and listings with foreclosure/short sale designations as a percentage of total sales and total listings analysis added November 30, 2008. 6. As of December 31, 2008, listings includes the quot;activequot;, quot;contingency/kick outquot;, quot;contingency/no kickoutquot;, and quot;app regquot; statuses.  Listings excludes the  quot;contractquot;, quot;expiredquot; and quot;withdrawnquot; statuses. 7. As of December 31, 2008, an analysis of the foreclosures and short sales by subdivision was added. Page 3 of 15
  4. 4. Loudoun County Housing Market Analysis Loudoun County Existing Home Sales/Median Sales Prices Loudoun County Existing Home Sales/Median Sales Prices 2000/2008 Year Total Sales Median Sales Price Units % Change $ % Change 2000 5,019 , $ $209,000 , 2001 6,179 23.1% $237,500 13.6% 2002 6,735 9.0% $269,000 13.3% 2003 8,255 22.6% $309,900 15.2% 2004 9,381 13.6% $390,000 25.8% 2005 9,123 ‐2.8% $485,000 24.4% 2006 5,919 , ‐35.1% $ $484,900 , 0.0% 2007 5,127 ‐13.4% $439,560 ‐9.4% 2008 5,380 4.9% $346,500 ‐21.2% Source:  MRIS Loudoun County Existing Home Sales and Median Sales Prices:  2000 ‐ 2008 10,000 $600,000 9,381 9,123 MSP $550,000 9,000 Sales 8,255 $485,000 $484,900 $500,000 8,000 8 000 edian Sales Price otal Annual Sales $439,560 $450,000 6,735 7,000 $390,000 6,179 $400,000 6,000 $346,500 5,919 $350,000 , 5,019 Me To $309,900 $ 5,000 5,380 5,127 $300,000 $269,000 4,000 $237,500 $250,000 $209,000 3,000 $200,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Page 4 of 15
  5. 5. Loudoun County Housing Market Analysis YTD Existing Home Sales Price Stratification Close Price 2007 2008 1,400 1,300 1,323 < $200K < $200K 83 759 1,227 $200s 553 1,300 1,142 1,200 $300s 1,323 1,227 $400s 1,142 737 1,000 $500s 719 590 2007 es Total YTD Sale $600s 551 339 759 800 737 719 2008 $700s 324 193 $800s 177 103 590 553 551 600 $900s 75 56 $1Ms 156 66 400 339 324 $ > $2M 24 10 Total 5,127 5,380 193 177 156 200 103 83 75 56 66 24 10 2007 vs. 2008 Variance 0 < $200K 814.5% < $200K $200 $200K $200s $300s $300 $400s $400 $500s $500 $600s $600 $700s $700 $800s $800 $900s $900 $1Ms $1M > $2M $2M $200s 135.1% Source:  MRIS $300s ‐7.3% $400s ‐35.5% The only units that had more annual sales in 2008 compared to 2007 were those priced below $300,000.  The number of sales for  homes priced below $200,000 is up by 815%. $500s ‐17.9% $600s ‐38.5% $700s ‐40.4% $800s ‐41.8% $900s ‐25.3% $1Ms ‐57.7% > $2M $ ‐58.3% Page 5 of 15
  6. 6. Loudoun County Housing Market Analysis Monthly Sales (Last Twelve Months) Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 20.1% 600 Dec 08 vs. Dec 07 9.1% 599 554 573 550 12 Month High:  Jun 08 599 569 501 12 Month Low:  Jan 08 257 500 464 2008 Average 448 Monthly Sales 432 450 2007 Average 427 2006 Average 437 380 400 407 339 Sales rebounded in December after five  350 305 consecutive months of declines and  300 ended the year with a 5% increase in unit  257 sales over2007.  Based on the steadily  250 increasing sales through June 2008, the  12‐month trend was us for the year. 200 Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08 Total Sales 90 84 High Sales:  20164 84 80 75 Low Sales: 20117/20197/20129 2 70 Sterling posted the highest sales among  60 Monthly Sales 51 these markets in every month but  50 February and its year‐end percentage of  40 total county‐wide sales was 18%  40 34 compared to 10.6% in 2007.  The  28 28 30 Ashburn zip code of 20147 gathered  20 14.4% of the total sales in 2008, showing  20 13 a percentage decline from 16.5% in 2007. 11 10 7 10 2 2 2 0 20105 20117 20132 20141 20147 20148 20152 20158 20164 20165 20166 20175 20176 20180 20197 Source:  MRIS Page 6 of 15
  7. 7. Loudoun County Housing Market Analysis Median Sales Price (Last Twelve Months) $400,000 Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 4.0% Dec 08 vs. Dec 07 ‐23.2% $374,950 12 Month High:  Feb 08 $374,950 $375,000 $370,000 12 Month Low:  Nov 08 $303,000 $358,225 $359,000 2008 Average $341,891 Median Sales Price $350,000 2007 Average $427,313 $350,000 $351,000 2006 Average $465,421 $350,000 $335,000 After five consecutive months declines,  $325,000 $315,000 the MSP rebounded slightly in  $320,000 $316,518 December.  Although it's too soon to  predict, rising prices may signal the end  $300,000 $303,000 of the decessionary period.  Median  prices were down  $275,000 Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08 Median Sales Price $900,000 $833,470 $839,950 High MSP:  20117 $839,950 $800,000 Low MSP: 20164 $208,062 $722,350 $700,000 The difference in median sales prices  Median Sales Price between Middleburg (20117) and  $600,000 $519,450 $524,991 $505,699 Sterling (20164) was 300%.  The  $458,455 $463,924 $500,000 $390,188 difference in sales was 2 in Middleburg  $388,147 $415,736 $376,090 and 84 in Sterling during December. $362,160 $400,000 $310,000 $300,000 $208,062 $200,000 $100,000 20105 20117 20132 20141 20147 20148 20152 20158 20164 20165 20166 20175 20176 20180 20197 Source:  MRIS Page 7 of 15
  8. 8. Loudoun County Housing Market Analysis Monthly Sales (Last Twelve Months) by Product Type High SFD Sales: Jul 08 305 350 Low SFD Sales: Jan 08 141 305 304 293 SFD High SFA Sales: Jun 08 273 300 271 SFA Low SFA Sales: Jan 08 101 238 238 250 CON High CON Sales: Oct  08 32 273 Monthly Sales 209 258 Low CON Sales: Feb 08 10 188 202 247 246 237 200 2008 SFD Average 222 164 149 191 141 201 2007 SFD Average 224 188 150 173 2008 SFA Average 205 156 146 2007 SFA Average 176 100 2008 CON Average 22 101 32 2007 CON Average 27 30 26 25 25 22 50 21 19 19 17 15 10 The sales of attached units has exceeded  0 the number of detached units for three  Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08 consecutive months.   Average Close Price by Product Type High SFD ACP: Jul 08 $567,988 $600,000 $567,988 $559,098 Low SFD ACP: Jan 08 $472,486 $533,489 $537,842 $531,740 $550,000 High SFA ACP: Jun 08 $342,530 $506,646 $555,552 $491,520 $486,142 Low SFA ACP: Jan 08 $250,314 $486,866 $472,486 $500,000 High CON ACP: Oct  08 $265,392 $484,294 Average Close Price $450,000 Low CON ACP: Feb 08 $161,356 SFD 2008 SFD Average $517,805 $400,000 2007 SFD Average $648,486 $342,530 $324,747 2008 SFA Average $291,373 $350,000 $309,510 $310,678 $301,319 $302,619 2007 SFA Average $385,124 $291,299 $272,558 $270,798 $300,000 $265,392 $256,631 $263,477 2008 CON Average $208,185 $250,314 $250,000 2007 CON Average $263,942 $249,613 $200,000 $229,357 $217,064 Compared to 2007, the ACP for detached  $207,172 $201,768 $205,287 $200,398 $197,908 $190,166 $150,000 units declined 20.2%; for attached units it  $172,737 $161,356 declined 24.3%; and for condominium  $100,000 units it declined 21.1% by year end. Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08 Source:  MRIS Page 8 of 15
  9. 9. Loudoun County Housing Market Analysis Month's Supply of Inventory (Last Twelve Months) 14.0 Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 ‐10.58801% 12.6 13.0 Dec 08 vs. Dec 07 ‐37.88488% 12.0 12 Month High:  Jan 08 12.6 10.9 11.0 12 Month Low:  Aug 08 5.1 2008 Average 7.1 10.0 9.0 2007 Average 8.3 MSI 9.0 2006 Average 8.3 7.7 8.0 The 2008 average of 7.1 months is 15.4%  7.0 6.3 5.98 less than the 2007 average and 18.1%  5.6 5.6 5.4 5.2 6.0 5.3 5.1 less than the 2006 average.  And, the  5.0 ratio of sales to listings has ranged from  5.1 months to 6.3 months for eight  4.0 consecutive months signaling a large  Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08 improvement over 2007.   However, FRC  considers the market to be in equilibrium  (enough supply to satisfy demand) when  Month's Supply of Inventory the MSI is 4 to 5 months. 40.0 34.0 High MSI: 20180 34.0 35.0 Low MSI: 20158 2.9 30.0 30.0 The markets with the three highest  25.0 supply of inventory each had two sales in  21.5 December making the MSI very high.  Six  MSI 20.0 of the fifteen Loudoun markets are in  equilibrium. 15.0 12.0 10.1 10.0 6.0 5.5 5.4 5.2 4.7 4.6 4.5 3.9 3.9 2.9 5.0 0.0 20105 20117 20132 20141 20147 20148 20152 20158 20164 20165 20166 20175 20176 20180 20197 Source:  MRIS Page 9 of 15
  10. 10. Loudoun County Housing Market Analysis Average Close Price to Average List Price % High CP/LP %:  Oct 08 93.2% 94% 93.2% Low CP/LP %:  Jan 08 88.0% 92.7% 92.5% 93% 12 Month Average 91.0% 91.8% 91.7% 2008 Average 91.0% 91.5% 91.4% 92% 2007 Average 91.8% 91.1% 2006 Average 90.4% 91% CP to LP % 90.1% 89.9% This indicator shows the willingness of  90% sellers to negotiate price ‐ the lower the  88.5% 89% percentage the more price discounts are  88.0% taking place.  It is also a sign that sellers  88% are forced to decrease their asking prices  when their houses remain on the market  87% too long.  Sellers are pricing more  realistically, the long‐term trend is up.   86% And, the December average was greater  Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08 than the 2008 overall average. Average Close Price to Average List Price % 98.0% 96.4% 96.2% 95.5% 95.4% High CP/LP %:  20197 96.4% 96.0% 94.3% Low CP/LP %: 20141 81.9% 94.0% 92.6% 92.6% 91.8% 91.4% 92.0% 89.8% 89.2% 90.0% 88.0% 85.7% 85.2% 86.0% 84.8% 84.0% 81.9% 82.0% 80.0% 20105 20117 20132 20141 20147 20148 20152 20158 20164 20165 20166 20175 20176 20180 20197 Source:  MRIS Page 10 of 15
  11. 11. Loudoun County Housing Market Analysis Monthly Days on Market (Last Twelve Months) Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 7.4% 140 Dec 08 vs. Dec 07 ‐2.9% 12 Month High:  Mar 2008 124 130 123 124 120 12 Month Low:  Oct 08 92 119 12 Month Average 108 Monthly DOMP 120 112 2008 Average 108 109 2007 Average 113 110 103 2006 Average 87 101 98 100 94 The 2008 DOMP average is now 4.9%  97 lower than the 2007 average but is still  90 92 23.4% higher than the 2006 average.  The  DOMP figure has declined six of the last  80 twelve months but following three  Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08 consecutive months below 100 days, the  average increased 7.4% in December to  Monthly Days on Market exceed 100 days. 400 363 340 350 High DOMP:  20117 363 300 273 Low DOMP: 20166 58 Monthly DOMP 250 The fastest moving markets in the county  198 were Ashburn (20147 & 20148), Chantilly  200 163 (20152), Sterling (20164), Dulles (20166)  150 and Waterford/Paeonian Springs (20197‐ 113 112 110 105 20184).  All had average DOMP figures of  84 79 100 62 61 58 58 less than 90 days.  The slowest moving  markets in December were  50 Middleburg/Upperville (20117/20184),  0 Round Hill (20141), Lovettsville (20180),  20105 20117 20132 20141 20147 20148 20152 20158 20164 20165 20166 20175 20176 20180 20197 and Hamilton (20158) with averages 6.6  to 12 months.   Source:  MRIS Page 11 of 15
  12. 12. Loudoun County Housing Market Analysis Foreclosures and Short Sale Designations: Sales 120 Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 40.3% 100 101 99 High:  Jun 08 101 100 89 94 Low:  Nov 08 67 80 Average 87 80 80 Listings: FCSS 69 67 The trendline for short sale and  60 foreclosure sales was flat by year‐end  following three consecutive months of  40 declines although the December figure  increased by 40% compared to  November.  At 94 sales, December's  20 short sale and foreclosure sales were 9%  higher than the 9‐month average. 0 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08 Foreclosures and Short Sale Designations: Sales High Sales FCSS:  20164 27 Low Sales FCSS: 20117/20197 0 30 27 Sterling had the highest number of sales  25 of foreclosure and short sale listings  followed by Ashburn (20147) and  Leesburg (20176).  By year‐end, Sterling  20 18 Total FC/SS posted 31.3% of all short sale and  foreclosure sales since April followed by  15 11 second place Leesburg (12.2%) and  10 Ashburn (10.3%).  10 7 5 4 5 3 2 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 20105 20117 20132 20141 20147 20148 20152 20158 20164 20165 20166 20175 20176 20180 20197 Source:  MRIS Page 12 of 15
  13. 13. Loudoun County Housing Market Analysis Foreclosures and Short Sale Designations:  Listings  450 Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 34.9% 421 High:  Dec 08 421 390 Low:  Aug 08 235 400 Average 302 Listings: FCSS 350 The number of listings in the county with  312 307 a foreclosure, short sale, and/or REO  295 property designation increased by 35%  300 last month and was 8% more than the  255 previous high of 390 reached in May.   252 248 Following four consecutive months of  250 235 increases, the 9‐month trend is up. 200 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08 Foreclosures and Short Sale Designations: Listings  High  FCSS Listings:  20164 102 Low FCSS Listings: 20117/20197 1 120 102 The more affluent markets in Loudoun,  100 Middleburg (20017) and Waterford  79 (20197), had the fewest foreclosure  80 listings in December. Total FC/SS 58 60 44 40 31 30 28 Caution :  Realtors are not required to  input these designations so these figures  20 12 11 9 6 4 should be used to establish emerging  5 1 1 trends only.  These are NOT recorded  0 foreclosures. 20105 20117 20132 20141 20147 20148 20152 20158 20164 20165 20166 20175 20176 20180 20197 Source:  MRIS Page 13 of 15
  14. 14. Loudoun County Housing Market Analysis Foreclosures and Short Sale Listings as a Percentage of Total Listings 25.0% High % FCSS Listings:  Dec 08 19.3% Low % FCSS Listings:  Jun 08 7.5% 19.3% Percentage of Total Listings 20.0% The 9‐month trend for the percentage of  15.4% active listings with short sale and  15.0% 13.1% foreclosure designations rose in 2008.  It  11.2% has exceeded 10% for three consecutive  9.1% months. 10.0% 8.6% 8.1% 8.0% 7.5% 5.0% 0.0% Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08 Foreclosures and Short Sale Sales as a Percentage of Total Sales High % FCSS Solds:  Dec 08 23.1% 25.0% 23.1% Low % FCSS Solds:  May 08 14.4% 19.8% The blue trendline shows that  20.0% 18.5% 17.8% 17.6% Percentage of Total Sales 17.3% foreclosure and short sales in Loudoun  16.9% County as a percentage of total sales is  14.4% 14.9% 15.0% also increasing, it crossed the 20% barrier  in December.   10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08 Source:  MRIS Page 14 of 15
  15. 15. Loudoun County Housing Market Analysis Foreclosure and Short Sales                                  Foreclosure and Short Sale Listings                            by Advertised Subdivision:  December 2008 by Advertised Subdivision:  December 2008 Zip Code Advertised Subdivision Total FCSS  Zip Code Advertised Subdivision Total FCSS  Sales Listings 20164 STERLING PARK 10 20164 STERLING PARK 41 20147 ASHBURN VILLAGE 5 20152 SOUTH RIDING 15 20176 LANSDOWNE ON THE POTOMAC 4 20147 ASHBURN VILLAGE 14 20175 VA KNOLLS 3 20164 NEWBERRY 12 20164 SUGARLAND RUN 3 20165 COUNTRYSIDE 12 20165 COUNTRYSIDE 3 20176 POTOMAC STATION 11 20147 ASHBURN FARM 3 20164 SUGARLAND RUN 11 20176 LOUDOUN HILLS 3 20176 LANSDOWNE 11 20176 POTOMAC STATION 3 20147 ASHBURN FARM 10 20165 POTOMAC LAKES 2 20176 POTOMAC CROSSING 9 20175 HUNTLAND HOMES 2 20148 BRAMBLETON LAND BAY 8 20164 NEWBERRY 2 20164 PEMBROOKE OF LOUDOUN 6 20164 HUNINGTON RIDGE 2 20175 CRESTWOOD HAMLET 6 20176 SYCAMORE HILL 2 20176 FOX CHASE 5 20175 LEESBURG GATEWAY II 2 20176 EDWARDS LANDING 5 20147 BELMONT LAND BAY 2 20176 EXETER 5 20164 STERLING PK SO TH 2 20165 POTOMAC LAKES 5 Partial list:  Two or more sales per subdivision 20175 VA KNOLLS 5 Partial list:  Five or more sales per subdivision Source:  MRIS Page 15 of 15

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