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Texas Mortgage Bankers Association

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Presented to the TMBA on 2/11/09 on the state of the Texas and US housing markets

Presented to the TMBA on 2/11/09 on the state of the Texas and US housing markets

Published in: Economy & Finance, Business

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    • 1. The Current Status and Outlook for the U.S. and state of Texas Economies, Housing, and Mortgage Markets Specially Prepared for: The Texas Mortgage Bankers Association Southwest Secondary Marketing Conference Presented by: LaVaughn M. Henry, Ph.D. Director, U.S. Economic Analysis The PMI Group, Inc. February 11, 2009
    • 2.
      • The General Economy
      • The Housing Markets
      • The Mortgage Markets
      • Conclusion
    • 3. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
    • 4. Source: U.S. Census Bureau
    • 5. Source: U.S. Conference Board
    • 6. Thousands Percent Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
    • 7. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
    • 8. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
    • 9. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
    • 10. Current Status and Outlook
    • 11. Source: NAR / U.S. Census Bureau U.S. Single Family Home Sales
    • 12. Source: NAR / U.S. Census Bureau
    • 13. Source: First American CoreLogic, LoanPerformance
    • 14.
      • Proprietary econometric model developed by The PMI Group, Inc. that estimates the probability that prices will fall in each of the nation’s 381 MSAs by the end of the next two years.
      • Based on OFHEO’s quarterly house price index for conventional, conforming loans.
      • Considers factors including price movement, housing affordability, local employment conditions, housing supply and foreclosures.
      • Utilizes more than 30,000+ observations of MSAs and quarterly combinations
      • All of the Model’s Primary Econometric Determinants are Statistically Significant at the 99% level or greater
    • 15. What is the U.S. Market Risk Index Saying about Future Price Movements?
    • 16. Historical Accuracy Rate of the PMI Risk Index Sample Period: 1 st Quarter 1985 – 3 rd Quarter 2006 Source: The PMI Group, Inc.
    • 17. Source: The PMI Group, Inc.
    • 18. Source: First American CoreLogic, LoanPerformance
    • 19. Source: The PMI Group, Inc.
    • 20. Source: The PMI Group, Inc.
    • 21. Source: Mortgage Bankers Association
    • 22. Source: BLS / The PMI Group, Inc.
    • 23. Current Status and Outlook
    • 24. Source: Federal Reserve Board Consumer Installment Credit
    • 25.
      • Prime Loans
      • Nontraditional Loans
      • Subprime Loans
      Source: Federal Reserve Board Senior Loan Officer Survey on Bank Lending Practices
    • 26. Source: Mortgage Bankers Association
    • 27. Source: Freddie Mac
    • 28. Source: Freddie Mac
    • 29. Source: Freddie Mac
    • 30.
      • The national economy remains at substantial risk of going deeper into recession
      • The Texas economy is likely to get weaker in the short run, but is unlikely to feel the full brunt of the national downturn
      • The housing market remains oversupplied and thus any substantial price recovery is unlikely in 2009
      • The residential mortgage market has shown some recent signs of life, but remains at risk of getting worse if foreclosure issue remains unaddressed and credit remains tight.