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CA Consumer Finances shares the findings of its survey of the consumer credit market worlwide at end-2010 for the third year running. At end-2010, global consumer loans outstanding totalled EUR 5,473 ...

CA Consumer Finances shares the findings of its survey of the consumer credit market worlwide at end-2010 for the third year running. At end-2010, global consumer loans outstanding totalled EUR 5,473 billion, representing an increase of 2.5% on 2009.

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Consumer credit worldwide Consumer credit worldwide Presentation Transcript

  • Consumer Credit worldwide at end-2010 July 2011Page 1 Consumer Credit Worlwide at end-2010
  • ‎Global consumer credit at end-2010 Summary For the third year in a row, Sofinco, a brand of Crédit Agricole Consumer Finance, has devoted an issue of its Consumer Credit Overview to a special report on the global consumer credit market. At end-2010, global consumer loans outstanding totalled EUR 5,473 billion, representing an increase of 2.5% on 2009. The size of the market varies from region to region:  North America (EUR 2,190 billion) accounts for almost 40% of global outstanding loans;  In contrast, Africa (EUR 85 billion) represents just 2% of global outstanding loans;  Asia and the Middle East combined represent the second-largest consumer credit region, with outstanding loans of EUR 1,540 billion;  Europe comes in behind this with EUR 1,310 billion. The global consumer credit market remains quite concentrated:  The five main markets (US, Japan, Canada, the UK and Germany) represented 62% of global outstandings in 2010; this figure is however down: it was 76% in 2008;  The 15 largest markets account for 83% of global outstandings. The 2.5% global increase observed in 2010 is distributed unevenly:  In 2010, consumer credit outstandings grew rapidly in South America (+22%) and, to a lesser extent, in Asia and the Middle East (+7.1%), Africa (+6.6%) and Oceania (+2.2%).  In contrast, they continued to shrink in North America (-0.6%) and Europe (-0.3%). This decline was even more marked in the 27 EU member states (-2.8%). We can therefore see that the emerging and developed markets are converging at an ever-faster rate. Differences also exist in the level of outstandings per capita, although these are becoming less marked. In 2010, the average outstandings per capita worldwide stood at around EUR 790.  The level of outstandings per capita is by far greatest in Canada (EUR 10,157), followed by Japan (EUR 5,973) and the US (EUR 5,886).  In Europe, average outstandings per capita are modest (EUR 1,667).  In most emerging markets, outstandings per capita are rapidly increasing, in particular in Latin and South America (Brazil, Argentina) but also in Asia and the Middle East (China, Indonesia, Thailand).Page 2 Consumer Credit Worlwide at end-2010
  • Global consumer credit at end-2010 Methodology & foreword The primary data on consumer credit presented in this report were sourced from central banks and national statistical institutions. They were processed by the economic analysis firm Asterès so as to ensure consistency in terms of product and market scope:  In terms of operators, they include banking and non-banking agents (i.e. all credit institutions).  In terms of products, they include bank overdrafts, even those obtained for purchasing consumer goods, but exclude mortgage loans.  To enable comparisons to be drawn between markets, all data were converted into euro at the average 2010 exchange rate. This is an important point that may explain significant variations between years. The majority of data presented in this report are estimated and the complete accuracy thereof cannot be guaranteed. Variations may exist in the quality of statistics obtained from primary sources (frequently central banks), and sometimes in the availability of such statistics. This is particularly true of statistics relating to non-banking operators. For the purposes of this report, six geographic regions were defined in line with certain specific features of the consumer credit market. These six regions are:  North America  Africa  South America  Asia & the Middle East  Europe  Oceania While these regions are broadly based on their standard geographical definition, the following points should be noted:  In addition to the 27 EU member states, Europe as referred to in this report includes Switzerland, Norway, Russia, Ukraine, Croatia, Serbia and Turkey. Given the change in scope, the figures indicated may differ from data presented in the Sofinco report entitled "The European consumer credit market in 2010" published in June 2011, which dealt exclusively with the 27 EU member states.  North America includes the US, Canada and Mexico.  The Middle East is combined with Asia.Page 3 Consumer Credit Worlwide at end-2010
  • Global consumer credit at end-2010 Global consumer credit map Breakdown of consumer credit outstandings at end-2010Page 4 Consumer Credit Worlwide at end-2010
  • Global consumer credit at end-2010 Marked disparity between regions  40% of global outstandings is accounted for by North America, i.e. the US (33% of global outstandings), Canada (6%) and, to a lesser extent, Mexico.  Asia and the Middle East (26%) represents the second-largest consumer credit region, with outstandings of EUR 1,540 billion, a figure that far outstrips Europes outstandings of EUR 1,310 billion.  Consumer credit outstandings in Africa represent just 1.6% of the global total. South Africa is the leading African market with estimated outstandings of around EUR 51 billion. Nevertheless, the gaps are narrowing. 2010 consumer credit outstandings per region (in EUR billions) Percentage of global outstandings 100% North America 2,190 (40%) North America (40%) (28%) 80%Asia & the Middle East 1,540 Asia & the Middle East (28%) Europe 1,310 (24%) 60% Europe (24%) Latin America 237 (4.3%) Oceania 112 (2.1%) Latin America (4.3%) 40% Africa 85 (1.6%) Oceania (2.1%) 20% Africa (1.6%) Source: Asterès 0%Page 5 Consumer Credit Worlwide at end-2010
  • Global consumer credit at end-2010 An annual increase of 2.5%  The global consumer credit market recovered in 2010, expanding by 2.5%. However, this global increase conceals a decoupling of emerging countries, where there is strong growth in consumer credit, from developed countries, which are struggling.  The strongest growth in the consumer credit market was recorded in Latin America (21.9%). Brazil, the regions leading market, displayed particularly strong momentum (+30%), as did Argentina (+37%).  In Africa, market growth was solid (+6.6%), particularly in South Africa.  Total outstandings in Asia and the Middle East grew by 7.1% compared with 2009, primarily thanks to the momentum of certain Asian countries (China, India, Indonesia, Thailand). However, in Japan, the zones largest market, outstandings shrank by 5.3%. Ex-Japan, growth in Asia and the Middle East amounted to 24%.  For their part, the North American and European markets continued to contract (shedding 0.6% and 0.3% respectively). In Europe, outside of the EU where outstandings fell by 2.5%, certain emerging markets continued to grow (Turkey) or rebounded sharply (Russia). Changes are calculated using amounts in EUR (2010 average exchange rate). Change in consumer credit outstandings per region from 2009 to 2010 (%): Latin America 21.9% Asia & the Middle East 7.1% Africa 6.6% Oceania 2.2% Europe -0.3% North America -0.6% Source: AsterèsPage 6 Consumer Credit Worlwide at end-2010
  • Global consumer credit at end-2010 Context: global consumer spending  Global growth recovered in 2010 (+4%), driven by the strength of emerging markets (+7.5%).  Global consumer spending held up well overall (+2.4%). Here too, emerging markets (+4.6%) bolstered global demand. Average annual growth rate 2000-2010 (vol., %) 2000- Annual growth in 2010 (vol., %) 7.5% 4.9% 4.6% 4.6% 4.0% 2.4% 2.1% 2.7% 2.4% 1.5% 1.2% 1.5% Emerging countries Developed countries Global Emerging countries Developed countries Global GDP Household spending GDP Household spending Sources: Feri, AsterèsPage 7 Consumer Credit Worlwide at end-2010
  • Global consumer credit at end-2010 Global outstandings per capita at EUR 787 in 2010  In North America, the average consumer credit outstandings per capita exceeded EUR 4,800. In particular, the highest level worldwide was recorded in Canada, where outstandings per capita topped EUR 10,000.  Outstandings per capita were also high in Oceania (Australia and New Zealand) at around EUR 3,200.  In Europe, the figure stands at a little over EUR 1,600, due to the inclusion of emerging countries (primarily Central and Eastern European countries) and certain large developed countries (Southern Europe) where the use of credit remains moderate.  Sharp growth was noted in outstandings per capita in Latin and South America (now at around EUR 500).  The figure is also on the increase in Asia and the Middle East (EUR 400). There are marked disparities even within this region. The amount of outstandings per capita in Japan (EUR 5,973) is 38 times higher than in China. The consumer credit market has been rapidly expanding in most countries in the region, in particular in China and South-East Asia.  On average, consumer credit indebtedness in Africa remains low. However, as in Asia, there are great differences within the region: outstandings per capita exceed EUR 1,000 in South Africa whereas in the continents northern countries, the figure is on average 10 times less than that. Outstandings per capita (2010, in EUR): North America 4,819 Oceania 3,195 Europe 1,667 Latin America 497 Asia & the Middle East 370 Africa 82 Source: AsterèsPage 8 Consumer Credit Worlwide at end-2010
  • Global consumer credit at end-2010 The weighting of the 5 largest markets has fallen: from 76% in 2008 to 62% in 2010  Although the global consumer credit market is still concentrated, it is becoming increasingly less so: indeed, the five largest markets (US, Japan, Canada, the UK and Germany) now represent just 62% of global outstandings compared with 76% in 2008.  In addition, the 15 largest markets now account for just 83% of global consumer credit outstandings compared with their 90% share of the global market in 2008.  These figures reflect the sustained growth seen in most emerging markets (particularly China, now the worlds 6th-largest market). Weighting of the 5 largest markets in total global outstandings Share of total global outstandings (2010, %) (2010, %) 76% 15 largest markets 83% 65% 62% 10 largest markets 77% 5 largest markets 62% 2008 2009 2010 Source: AsterèsPage 9 Consumer Credit Worlwide at end-2010
  • Global consumer credit at end-2010 Top 15: China and Brazil now rank above France  The US is the worlds largest consumer credit market, with outstandings amounting to EUR 1,815 billion at end-2010. This is more than twice the level of outstandings in Japan, the next largest market.  With EUR 249 billion in outstandings, the UK represents the fourth-largest market in the world, ranking just below Canada (EUR 343 billion), and is Europes leading market.  Fifth in the world, Germany is the largest market in the eurozone.  With estimated outstandings of EUR 209 billion at end-2010, representing a leap of 54.2%, China is the second-largest Asian market after Japan and sixth-largest in the world, ahead of France.  Brazil has also overtaken France in terms of outstandings (EUR 172 billion). It is the largest market in Latin America as well as one of the regions most thriving markets (+29.6% compared with 2009). 2010 outstandings of the 15 largest markets (in EUR billions): United States 1,815 Japan 763 Canada 343 UK 249 Germany 229 China 209 Brazil 172 France 152 South Korea 152 Italy 114 Australia 98 Spain 90 Russia 69 Sources: central banks, Asterès Indonesia 57 Turkey 56Page 10 Consumer Credit Worlwide at end-2010
  • Global consumer credit at end-2010 Top 15: change in outstandings of the 15 largest markets from 2009 to 2010  The Chinese consumer credit market grew by more than 60%, comparable to the increase reported between 2008 and 2009.  The US market, the largest in the world in terms of outstandings, shrank by 1.7%.  The UK, Europes leading market, also contracted by 2.7%. Change in consumer credit outstandings from 2009 to 2010 (%): China 59% Turkey 31.5% Brazil 29.6% Indonesia 25.8% Russia 16.6% South Korea 9.8% Canada 5.0% Australia 2.4% France 1.7% Italy 0.9% Germany 0.5% United States -1.7% Japan -5.3% UK -5.7% Spain -10.7% Sources: central banks, AsterèsPage 11 Consumer Credit Worlwide at end-2010
  • Global consumer credit at end-2010 Top 15: outstandings per capita in the leading 15 markets  Canada has the highest level of consumer credit outstandings per capita in the world, at over EUR 10,000.  Japan ranks second (EUR 5,973), closely followed by the US (EUR 5,886), which is trailed by Australia (EUR 4,614) and the UK (EUR 3,998).  Outstandings per capita in Spain dropped sharply in 2010, now standing at less than EUR 2,000.  Although not among the fifteen largest markets in terms of total outstandings, Ireland (EUR 4,471), Denmark (EUR 3,174) and Greece (EUR 3,138) have some of the highest levels of outstandings per capita in the world. Consumer credit outstandings per capita in 2010 (in EUR): Canada 10,157 Japan 5,973 United States 5,886 Australia 4,614 UK 3,998 South Korea 3,135 Germany 2,801 France 2,410 Spain 1,956 Italy 1,893 Brazil 865 Turkey 720 Russia 497 Indonesia 235 Sources: central banks, Asterès China 158Page 12 Consumer Credit Worlwide at end-2010
  • Global consumer credit at end-2010 Top 15: outstandings per capita vs total consumer credit outstandings The largest markets do not necessarily have the highest levels of outstandings per capita. For example:  Canada, where total consumer credit outstandings amount to EUR 343 billion (i.e. 6% of global outstandings), only ranks 3rd in terms of total outstandings but 1st in terms of outstandings per capita.  China ranks 6th in terms of total outstandings yet is last in the list when it comes to outstandings per capita. Rank Outstandings (in EUR millions) Rank Outstandings per capita (in EUR) 1 United States 1,815 1 Canada 10,157 2 Japan 763 2 Japan 5,973 3 Canada 343 3 United States 5,886 4 UK 249 4 Australia 4,614 5 Germany 229 5 UK 3,998 6 China 209 6 South Korea 3,135 7 Brazil 172 7 Germany 2,801 8 France 152 8 France 2,410 9 South Korea 152 9 Spain 1,956 10 Italy 114 10 Italy 1,893 11 Australia 98 11 Brazil 865 12 Spain 90 12 Turkey 720 13 Russia 69 13 Russia 497 14 Indonesia 57 14 Indonesia 235 15 Turkey 56 15 China 158Page 13 Consumer Credit Worlwide at end-2010
  • Global consumer credit at end-2010 Focus on: North America, the worlds largest market Breakdown of outstandings by region  North America is by far the worlds largest consumer credit market. Total Oceania outstandings in the region stood at EUR 2,190 billion at end-2010, representing 2% Africa 40% of global outstandings. Latin America 2% 4%  Average outstandings per capita are the highest in the world (EUR 4,819). The two main markets (the US and Canada) are notable for their strong consumer North credit penetration rates, the result of a very high level of consumer spending per Europe America 24% 40% capita as well as of the highly competitive and extensive credit market. 1st: United States  EUR 1,815 billion in outstandings at end-2010 i.e. 33% of global outstandings and 82.9% of Asia & the outstandings in North America Middle East  EUR 5,885 per capita 28% 2nd: Canada  EUR 343 billion in outstandings at end-2010 i.e. 6% of global outstandings and 15.7% of Breakdown of outstandings by outstandings in North America country in North America Mexico  EUR 10,157 per capita 2% Canada 16% 3rd: Mexico  EUR 33 billion in outstandings at end-2010 i.e. 0.6% of global outstandings and 1.5% of outstandings in North America  EUR 290 per capita United States 82%Page 14 Consumer Credit Worlwide at end-2010
  • Global consumer credit at end-2010 Focus on: Asia and the Middle East, the worlds second-largest market Breakdown of outstandings by region  Asia and the Middle East combined represent the second-largest consumer credit market in the world. Outstandings in the region stood at EUR 1,540 billion at end- Oceania 2% Africa 2010, i.e. 28% of global outstandings. Latin America 2%  The region is dominated by Japan, the second-largest market in the world, and 4% China. The Chinese market is notable for its strong growth in outstandings (more than 50% in 2010). It is now the sixth-largest market in the world, ranking above North Europe France. America 24% 40%  In terms of credit, this region is very diverse, with large developed markets (Japan, South Korea, Singapore) and high-growth emerging markets (China, Thailand, Indonesia, India). 1st: Japan  EUR 763 billion in outstandings at end-2010 Asia & the Middle East i.e. 13.9% of global outstandings and 50% of 28% outstandings in Asia & the Middle East  EUR 5,973 per capita Breakdown of outstandings by 2nd: China  EUR 209 billion in outstandings at end-2010 country in Asia and the Middle East i.e. 3.8% of global outstandings and 14% of outstandings in Asia & the Middle East Other 26%  EUR 158 per capita Japan 50% 3rd: South Korea  EUR 152 billion in outstandings at end-2010 i.e. 2.8% of global outstandings and 10% of South Korea outstandings in Asia & the Middle East 10%  EUR 3,135 per capita China 14%Page 15 Consumer Credit Worlwide at end-2010
  • Global consumer credit at end-2010 Focus on: Europe, the worlds third-largest market Breakdown of outstandings by region  The European consumer credit market represented outstandings of EUR 1,310 Oceania billion at end-2010, i.e. 24% of global outstandings (losing speed compared 2% Africa with Asia and the Middle East). Latin America 2% 4%  Outstandings per capita (EUR 1,667) are modest in view of the level of development in most of the regions economies. Europe North  The 27 EU member states (EUR 1,105 billion) account for 85% of the market. America 24% 40% 1st: UK  EUR 249 billion in outstandings at end-2010* i.e. 4.5% of global outstandings and 22% of outstandings in Europe Asia & the Middle East  EUR 3,998 per capita 28% 2nd: Germany  EUR 229 billion in outstandings at end-2010 i.e. 4.2% of global outstandings and 21% of Breakdown of outstandings by outstandings in Europe country in Europe  EUR 2,801 per capita UK 22% 3rd: France  EUR 152 billion in outstandings at end-2010 Other i.e. 2.8% of global outstandings and 12% of 45% outstandings in Europe Germany 21%  EUR 2,410 per capita * The variation compared with the previous report is primarily due to changes in the exchange rate. ** The data were updated on the basis of outstandings published by the Banque de France and reprocessed using estimated data for Frances overseas départements, i.e. EUR 151.7 billion in outstandings at end-2010 France 12%Page 16 Consumer Credit Worlwide at end-2010
  • Global consumer credit at end-2010 Crédit Agricole Consumer Finance Europes leader in consumer credit With EUR 78.1 billion in consumer credit outstandings under management at end-2010, Crédit Agricole Consumer Finance is the leading player on Europes consumer credit market. Via its subsidiaries, Crédit Agricole Consumer Finance operates in 19 European countries (Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK) as well as in Saudi Arabia, Morocco and China. At end-2010, two-thirds of its outstandings under management were generated by international activities. Sofinco is a French brand of Crédit Agricole Consumer Finance.Page 17 Consumer Credit Worlwide at end-2010
  • Contact : Crédit Agricole Consumer Finance DPCI H.0.2. - rue du Bois Sauvage - 91038 Evry cedex (France) Tél. : 33 (0)1 60 76 88 17 E-mail : presse@ca-cf.fr All Crédit Agricole Consumer Finance ‘s studies are available from www.ca-consumerfinance.com, Section Consumer Credit OverviewPage 18 Consumer Credit Worlwide at end-2010