Central Asia and South Caucasus REGION FORESIGHT Presentation Made by CACAARIfor GCARD Pre-Conference Inter- Regional Forum Meeting Oleg Shatberashvili Georgian Federation for Information and Documentation, Member of CACAARI Steering Council
Agricultural and Food Challenges in CAC Region• 5 countries of Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan) and 3 countries of the South Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia)• The area exceeding 4 million sq.km (about 3 % of the Earths dry land)• Population of about 75 million, more than 40% in rural area• 70% of poor reside in rural area• A sharp rise in food prices put at risk part of the population (20-50%, depending on country)TITLE OF into TOPIC falling THE the category of the poor• In 2007-2011 agricultural production in all countries except Georgia (example: Biodiversity: Actions and Contributions by Rural was growing. However, noresource poor small holder farmersvolume of Communities especially country has yet reached a ) agricultural production of 1990.• All countries are net food importers. The deficit compensated through import is between 70% (Georgia) and 30% (Armenia, Kazakhstan).• Agricultural future of the countries is both of regional and global importance
Agricultural and Food Challenges in CAC Region• Current significant deficiency of locally produced food• Climate change, water problems, soil degradation, deforestation, etc.• Sudden emergence of large number of smallholders TITLE OF THE TOPIC (example: Biodiversity: Actions and Contributions by Rural• Extremely low agricultural GERDholder farmers ) of GDP) Communities especially resource poor small (0.1 – 0.25• Weak agriculture advisory services
Foresight in Central Asia and the South Caucasus (1)• Limited number of research works devoted to the future of agriculture• Examples: – An overview of agriculture in Central Asia and the Caucasus and CGIAR program for sustainable development – Water Quality, Cropping and Small Ruminants: Future Agriculture in Dry Areas THEUzbekistan TITLE OF of TOPIC (example: Biodiversity: Actions and Contributions by Rural – Some aspects of development of grain agriculture of Communities especially resource poor small holder farmers ) Kazakhstan in view of possible climate change – Research Prospectus: A Vision for Sustainable Land Management Research in Central Asia• Limited local ownership
Foresight in Central Asia and the South Caucasus (2)• Technological Foresight of Kazakh Agro-Industrial Sector’s Priority Directions Development (2014-2020, 351 pages, in Russian)• Methodology: desktop review of published and unpublished sources, brain storming, DELPHY, SWOT-analysis, key technology TITLE OF THE TOPIC selection, other. (example: Biodiversity: Actions and Contributions by Rural• CentreCommunities especially resource poor small holder farmers ) for Economical Policy Analysis of Agro-Industrial Sector of Kazakhstan• Authors will be involved in the work of Forward Thinking Platform
Foresight and Setting Priorities in CAC• Foresights are not conducted in the region on the regular bases• A survey of foresight activities in the region and their TITLE OF THE TOPIC a task for the influence on priorityActions and Contributions by Rural future settings is (example: Biodiversity: Communities especially resource poor small holder farmers )
Lessons learned• Foresight with a local ownership should become a regular part of AR4D activities in the region• Low level of agricultural GERD may be an obstacle to it TITLE OF THE TOPIC (example: Biodiversity: Actions and Contributions by Rural Communities especially resource poor small holder farmers )
CACAARI Commitments• The status of foresight in the Region was discussed at the CACAARI annual meeting• CACAARI will focus attention on the further development of TITLE OF THE TOPIC foresight in Biodiversity:resourceand Contributions by Rural ) (example: Actions the region poor small holder farmers Communities especially take a capacity building measures to insure promotion of foresight-based research in the region.
Thank You TITLE OF THE TOPIC (example: Biodiversity: Actions and Contributions by RuralCommunities especially resource poor small holder farmers )
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