Concepts And Technologies Behind Real-Time Demand Data - A Consumer, Mobile, and Business Perspective

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A continuation of one of my favorite research topics, mobile context and the meaning of interactions, this is latest incarnation as presented at the 2009 Demand Analytics conference -- this time with …

A continuation of one of my favorite research topics, mobile context and the meaning of interactions, this is latest incarnation as presented at the 2009 Demand Analytics conference -- this time with focus on real-time demand data, the consumer and businesses.

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  • 1. Concepts and Technologies behind Real-time Demand Data A Consumer, Mobile and Business Perspective C. Enrique Ortiz About Mobility October, 2009 © 2009 C. Enrique Ortiz http://CEnriqueOrtiz.com 1
  • 2. About C. Enrique Ortiz • Technology and Products with focus on Mobile and the (Real-time) Web, Demand Data, and Experience Management. • Spends quite a bit of time thinking about “futures” and the intersection of technology and business. • Engineering and management roles and author at About Mobility, Motive (Alcatel-Lucent), and Artemis Wireless Werks. © 2009 C. Enrique Ortiz http://CEnriqueOrtiz.com 2
  • 3. Today… © 2009 C. Enrique Ortiz http://CEnriqueOrtiz.com 3
  • 4. How to Influence Customers and Maximize Conversions? • Shelf Placement? Pricing? Brand? • Fluctuations in inventory & pricing? • How to Attract customers to the store? And to specific items? • How to influence the customer to buy? What incentives to offer? © 2009 C. Enrique Ortiz http://CEnriqueOrtiz.com 4
  • 5. Attracting Customers • What if we could tie promotions, in real- time, to the realities of inventory, supply & demand? • How effective is traditional advertising? How do you measure effectiveness? • How effective are paper coupons? • How many people actually spend the time cutting/using paper coupons? What about remembering to use them before they expire? Remember “Blue Light Specials”? © 2009 C. Enrique Ortiz http://CEnriqueOrtiz.com 5
  • 6. But it doesn’t have to be that way… © 2009 C. Enrique Ortiz http://CEnriqueOrtiz.com 6
  • 7. Imagine… • Your products as interactive items and connected to the Internet. • Thousands or millions of consumers interacting with your products directly and indirectly. • And with each interaction a wealth of information is being generated. • And with this information influence consumers. © 2009 C. Enrique Ortiz http://CEnriqueOrtiz.com 7
  • 8. Real-time Demand Data Life-cycle © 2009 C. Enrique Ortiz http://CEnriqueOrtiz.com 8
  • 9. Life-cycle of Demand Data 1 Make product interactive For a time Individualize Interactions Make product visible | attract customer period, or Influence the consumer on-going 2 Capture, Measure & Classify Interactions Analyze 3 Understand The Effectiveness and Audience Improve 4 Optimize for Performance Adjust: placement, targets, pricing, Context, Interactions, Data promotions, etc. © 2009 C. Enrique Ortiz http://CEnriqueOrtiz.com 9
  • 10. Unique 3-Tier Demand Data Analysis • A 3-tier approach to demand Macro ie data, business analysis and Behavioral & Business Economics personalized consumer experience. • Macro layer focuses on the Contextual ie User and Social Context, behavioral and business Behavior, Influence, Recommendations, economics. Personalization, ualitative, uantitative, Heuristics, • Contextual layer focuses on Algorithms... context and algorithmic views. • Micro layer focuses on low- Micro ie level methods and data-sets Demand Data, Activities, Interactions, Meta- data, Data-feeds, Integration and Business needed by the contextual Rules, Devices and Channels and their capabilities, User information, Preferences, layer and thus the macro Profiles, Social networks, Location, Address layer. Books, Identities, ... © 2009 C. Enrique Ortiz http://CEnriqueOrtiz.com 10
  • 11. Making Products Interactive …and connecting products to the Internet © 2009 C. Enrique Ortiz http://CEnriqueOrtiz.com 11
  • 12. Making Products Interactive Connecting Products to the Internet • Everything can be made addressable and thus identifiable. • Imagine making your products interactive (and connected to the Internet). – Interact via books or magazines, posters, soda cans, billboards. – Through a number to call, a short-code to text, RFID or barcodes, via augmented reality! • And the Mobile Handset is at the center of this – the gateway between products and information. © 2009 C. Enrique Ortiz http://CEnriqueOrtiz.com 12
  • 13. Visual Tags: Barcodes • More than 30 types of 1D barcodes. • More than 40 types of 2D barcodes. • Capacities from bits to thousands of bytes. • Store numbers, characters, URLs. • Some proprietary others “open”. • Requires camera and capture SW. • It is here today. © 2009 C. Enrique Ortiz http://CEnriqueOrtiz.com 13
  • 14. RF Tags: RFID, Near Field Communication • Contactless (swipe | touch). • Short-range ~4-10 cm. • Integrated into Phones, Cards, Stickers, POS, Smartcards. • Store numbers, characters, URLs, associate actions. • Requires enablement. • It is kind of here today – expect mass adoption 3-5 years. • Bluetooth (not shown) is a radio- based alternative for “nearby” pushed messages and user- initiated discovery of events. Pictured above: ACR122 NFC Contactless Smartcard Reader, ViVOtech terminal, Alcatel-Lucent’s touchatag NFC Kit © 2009 C. Enrique Ortiz http://CEnriqueOrtiz.com 14
  • 15. Messaging: SMS, Email, Life-Streams • Most predominant way to connect & make items interactive. • SMS: “young” folks loves and use texting – great channel for this demographic. • Billions of text messages sent every year – very pervasive. • Perfect for reaching-out (push). • Already enabled. • It is here today. • Bluetooth hasn’t been much successful as a messaging (push) marketing tool. © 2009 C. Enrique Ortiz http://CEnriqueOrtiz.com 15
  • 16. Mobile Web • Browser-based. • Typically requires user typing URLs or search strings. • Can be push initiated (via SMS including a URL). • Future browsers integrated with location and camera (i.e. scan barcode). Top: Android handset • Requires enablement: data- Right: Google Shopping plan. • It is here today. © 2009 C. Enrique Ortiz http://CEnriqueOrtiz.com 16
  • 17. The Real-time Web • Life-streams, Social Portals, blogs. Facebook, Twitter messaging. • As Real-time as it gets. • Perfect for reaching-out (push). • Search vs. Reach. • Requires enablement. • It is here today. © 2009 C. Enrique Ortiz http://CEnriqueOrtiz.com 17
  • 18. Augmented Reality • Superimpose digital information on top of the real-word, in real-time. • For searching. • For Product information. • Very exciting technology with great potential. • Requires enablement (camera and software). • It is here today. © 2009 C. Enrique Ortiz http://CEnriqueOrtiz.com 18
  • 19. Good ole’ Voice Call • It is here today and it works. • No enablement required. • Not “cool” enough? • Sequential. • Complex audio-menus. © 2009 C. Enrique Ortiz http://CEnriqueOrtiz.com 19
  • 20. The Role of the Mobile Handset isual ags • The Handset is right in adio ags the middle. oice Calls • Maximize the number of supported interaction types. Mobile eb • Texting is the most pervasive interaction. he eal time eb • Experiment with new ways such as barcodes and augmented reality. • All these are still very © 2009 C. Enrique Ortiz exting Augmented eality new concepts for consumers. © 2009 C. Enrique Ortiz http://CEnriqueOrtiz.com 20
  • 21. But Why the Mobile Handset, Really? The Mobile Lifestyle © 2009 C. Enrique Ortiz The convergence between advancements in mobile technology AND the Mobile Lifestyle © 2009 C. Enrique Ortiz http://CEnriqueOrtiz.com 21
  • 22. Summary of Interaction Types Client Ease of Use Cost of Interaction Interaction Availability Enablement?** for user Support Easy (depends on High Voice* High No menu complexity) (server-side) Med-High; depends on SMS plan, Twitter, Easy for those who Messaging* High approach and volume etc. like to text (server-side) Easy-Med; depends Low-Med Mobile Web Med-High Data plan on app (server-side) Easy-Med; depends Low-Med Real-time Web* High Client SW on app (server-side) Low. Depending on Radio support, Easy-Med; depends Low-Med Radio Tags Region Device SW on app (device, server-side) Visual Tags Camera, Easy-Med; depends Low-Med Med (barcodes) Device SW on app (device, server-side) Low. New Camera, Easy-Med; depends Low-High Augmented Reality technology. GPS, SW on app (device, server-side) *Great for Reaching-out (push) **Some client SW enablement via App Stores. Note: Bluetooth would be similar to Radio Tags but with a HIGH cost of interaction support due to introduction of Kiosks or Bluetooth gateways. © 2009 C. Enrique Ortiz http://CEnriqueOrtiz.com 22
  • 23. Thousands or millions consumers interacting with your products …and understanding Interactions and the importance of Context © 2009 C. Enrique Ortiz http://CEnriqueOrtiz.com 23
  • 24. Interactions = Demand Data Interaction Levels vs. Types • Active (Real-time ) or • May have to be made passive (past history). anonymous. • Direct or indirect and carry • Becomes part of larger explicit vs. implicit aggregated set. (hidden) data. • Capture and classify. • Signify intent or • Sources: handset, trends, Real-time Web, other. action/conversion. • One way or 2-way Real-time “conversations”. (Active) • Leaves behind a digital Interactions Past History (Passive) footprint. Real-time Web Trends (Active) © 2009 C. Enrique Ortiz http://CEnriqueOrtiz.com 24
  • 25. eal time Real-time Interactions Interactions • Indirect interactions Recommendation – Signifies intention – Implicit interaction ion nt Promotion te In – Can happen from anywhere t/ on ec ti di r en – Goal is to influence customer In t In / ct ir e Product item In d tention • Direct interactions Dir ect / In Indi rect – Goes beyond intention Di re ct / ?? ? Physically /I – More explicit and likely to nt en tio Walks-by Tr n convert (into a transaction) an sa Picks-up or c ti – Critical point in buying decision; on Touches item “last chance” to influence – Typically occurs “on location” i.e. Buy store or virtual store © 2009 C. Enrique Ortiz http://CEnriqueOrtiz.com 25
  • 26. The Importance of Context • “The user’s mobile context can be defined as the set of and the intersection between facts, events, circumstances, and information that surrounds the (mobile) user at a given point in time.” • Enhances and augments the meaning of each interaction. Provides additional information about a given interaction. © 2009 C. Enrique Ortiz http://CEnriqueOrtiz.com 26
  • 27. Context - Augmenting the meaning of Interactions • Makes Interactions are • Allows for dynamic more Informative (always changing) • Allows for more information accurate (and timely) • Allows for information information Adaptation (to current • Makes information circumstances) more relevant • ransformational • Connected (to (promotes behavioral inventory, people, changes – influence Internet) consumer) © 2009 C. Enrique Ortiz http://CEnriqueOrtiz.com 27
  • 28. Example: Using Context to Attract Customers • Imagine a promotion compass. Or promotions in augmented reality • Businesses turn on/off promotions as needed • Consumers find active promotions • From Interactions and Intentions to potential transactions • Leverages the user’s mobile context to enhance value Layar Augmented • There are privacy considerations Reality Browser 01Pages Mobile Promotions Solution © 2009 C. Enrique Ortiz http://CEnriqueOrtiz.com 28
  • 29. Listening to the Real-time Web • As Real-time as it comes • Public or private data; can be very personal • Monitor for market trends • Monitor to learn and adapt: – “What’s hot” – What’s working – Reach-out and feedback or reactions – Recommendations – Wish-lists © 2009 C. Enrique Ortiz http://CEnriqueOrtiz.com 29
  • 30. The Information Bank – A repository of current and past interactions Interactions Information Bank DB Interactions Users : : eal time Channels Profiles Interactions and : : rends On the eb Promotions Products : : Thousands and millions of Stores Recommendations : : unique and personal entries © 2009 C. Enrique Ortiz © 2009 C. Enrique Ortiz http://CEnriqueOrtiz.com 30
  • 31. Value of Demand Data over Time • Gains more value and meaning over time © 2009 C. Enrique Ortiz • Can be costly to store V a l • A must to store and keep u accessible for continuous e analysis • Leverage cloud services Interactions/Time such as Amazon Simple Storage Service (S3) © 2009 C. Enrique Ortiz http://CEnriqueOrtiz.com 31
  • 32. Understanding and Optimizing Demand Data Platform & Dashboard …the software solution that powers it all © 2009 C. Enrique Ortiz http://CEnriqueOrtiz.com 32
  • 33. Understanding the Data • Consider Interactions levels and types – Think about this as weights applied to the meaning of each Interaction – Carry explicit and implicit data – Explicit data is obvious while Implicit data requires further analysis and requires past history, profiles and aggregated (across profile) information • Classify data • Perform real time analysis of current & past interactions + context & social + relationships to business data • Perform non real time analysis of same data yields hidden information. – Also, computational restrictions that results on response latency are alleviated via non-real-time (batch) analysis • New exciting models are ahead of us • Remember that value of data increases over time © 2009 C. Enrique Ortiz http://CEnriqueOrtiz.com 33
  • 34. Demand Data Management • Interactions demand data Bus and Information Bank Dashboard • Correlation & Aggregation Reports Exposed APIs • Measure & Metrics • Data Analysis and Mining • Dashboard & Reporting Demand Data Management Platform • Campaigns & Promotions Interactions (demand data) Bus | Correlation & Aggregation | Measure, Metrics | Data Analysis and Mining | Dashboard & Reporting • Stores , Customers & Consumers Active Industry | Market Data Other: Customer, Real-time Interactions (Nielsen, etc) manufacturer, supplier, • Reach-out to Consumers inventory, data or reports • Admin Functions Passive Interactions The Real-Time Web (trends, feedback, recommendations from • Exposed APIs life-streams and social portals) Database 00 C nri ue rti http C nri ue rti com © 2009 C. Enrique Ortiz http://CEnriqueOrtiz.com 34
  • 35. The Dashboard – “Command & Control” • Provides Eagle’s Eye view • Visualize and understand performance of captured data vs. promotions and locations (metrics) • Optimize promotions • Reach-out • Trigger “blue light specials” © 2009 C. Enrique Ortiz © 2009 C. Enrique Ortiz http://CEnriqueOrtiz.com 35
  • 36. On Privacy and Security …and related challenges © 2009 C. Enrique Ortiz http://CEnriqueOrtiz.com 36
  • 37. Privacy, Users and Identity • The “young” • Data may need to be made demographics seem not to anonymous care as much for privacy • Data may need to reside at (as long as something of customer’s premises value is provided) • Data may not be allowed • Yet, always provide proper to be aggregated – Educate customer about the identity abstractions that benefits though allows for interaction and • rust is key to adoption analysis without – People trust brands identifying individuals – User-controlled/Permission- – Think: User instance vs. user based helps build trust identity • Follow the guidelines on Interaction Data (see next) © 2009 C. Enrique Ortiz http://CEnriqueOrtiz.com 37
  • 38. Privacy Guidelines – Handling Personal Data (Interactions) Alert the User: End User, Ultimate Decision Maker: • Sho a privacy notice - The user must • The client application must provide the be notified that the application collects, means to turn off “tracking” at ANY records and transmits personal time. Always give the device-user the (location) information. ultimate decision for being tracked or • This privacy notice must be properly not! localized (i.e. right language for the particular country) and must be explicit. Safeguard Captured Interactions: • This privacy notice must be displayed and ackno ledged, at least once • If stored on the device, must be (probably the first time the application is safeguarded: 1) not accessible by other used). This acknowledgement must be programs or entities, 2) and possibly recorded. Note that recording the encrypted. acknowledgement also serves to protect • If stored on the server, must be totally you, validating you did your part safeguarded. notifying the user. • If transmitted, must be properly • This privacy notice should be re encrypted. displayed every once in a while, lets say once a month, or once a quarter, or something that is configurable, but the Adapted from C nri ue’s rti Guidelines for LBS Developers see http C nri ue rti com notice should never be disabled. © 2009 C. Enrique Ortiz http://CEnriqueOrtiz.com 38
  • 39. What can we do with all this newly gained Knowledge? © 2009 C. Enrique Ortiz http://CEnriqueOrtiz.com 39
  • 40. Knowledge is Power… “Those who understand the power of real time data and the technologies that allow businesses to (in real-time) reach and attract, converse with, and influence customers…” “Those are the ones who will have the advantage to understand product and consumer behavior, manage their brands and inventories, and monetize the opportunity.” © 2009 C. Enrique Ortiz http://CEnriqueOrtiz.com 40
  • 41. Implement a smart, real-time business For example, imagine mobile-based •Effective campaigns “Blue Light Specials” for everyone! •Attract consumers Based on past personal behaviors, •Effective reward programs preferences and business (supply and •Influence consumers demand) needs. •Monetize © 2009 C. Enrique Ortiz http://CEnriqueOrtiz.com 41
  • 42. In Conclusion • Consider supporting mobile interactions to complement other business data-feeds. – But take advantage of mobile handset – it is at the center. – Enable for physical interactions. Technologies already exists to take implement and advantage of mobile handset for interactions. • Capture and Measure. Analyze. Optimize. – Continuously. Extract and understand the wealth of information from the unique and personal demand data. – Use newly gained knowledge to better influence consumers • Context is key. Privacy is key. – Permissions and Trust are very important. • Leverage the Real-time Web – Monitor for trends, use it to reach-out, for feedback, as source of interactions • You have time to experiment; adoption is still early. – Good time to begin experimenting, pilots and educating both customers and consumers. © 2009 C. Enrique Ortiz http://CEnriqueOrtiz.com 42
  • 43. Thank You! • C. Enrique Ortiz • Email: CEnrique@Ortiz.name • Mobile: +1.512.410.0236 • Web: http://www.CEnriqueOrtiz.com • Twitter: @ eortiz © 2009 C. Enrique Ortiz http://CEnriqueOrtiz.com 43