The Labor Market Situation - January 2014 Jobs Report

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Dr Jennifer Hunt, U.S Department of Labor's Chief Economist reports on the Labor market situation in January, 2014.

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The Labor Market Situation - January 2014 Jobs Report

  1. 1. DRAFT The Labor Market Situation in January February 10, 2014 Dr. Jennifer Hunt Chief Economist U.S. Department of Labor 0 Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist 0
  2. 2. DRAFT Payroll survey: unexpectedly weak 1-month change, in thousands January 2014 142 December 2013 89 November 2013 272 12-month change, in thousands January 2013 to 2014: 2,291 Average: 191 1 Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist 1
  3. 3. DRAFT But the longer trend still shows steady growth 2 Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist 2
  4. 4. Two employment surveys: CES & Payroll-concept-adjusted CPS DRAFT Household  and  payroll  survey  employment,   seasonally  adjusted,  March  2001 January  2014   3 Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist 3
  5. 5. DRAFT Explanation Last month we blamed Idiosyncratic: accountants, motion pictures Weather: construction So how do these look this time? 4 Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist 4
  6. 6. DRAFT Employment growth by super-sector this month 5 Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist 5
  7. 7. DRAFT Employment growth by super-sector over the year 6 Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist 6
  8. 8. DRAFT Construction saw the largest 1-month increase since 2007 (but this may be seasonal or rebound from December) 1-month change, in thousands January 2014 48 December 2013 -22 November 2013 32 12-month change, in thousands January 2013 to 2014: 179 Average: 15 7 Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist 7
  9. 9. DRAFT Details Construction (January reference week mild; context of layoff month) Dec: -22,000 Jan: +48,000 Accountants still MIA Dec: -32,000 Jan: +5000 Motion pictures Dec: -11,000 Jan: +6000 Retail (return from unusually high in Dec) Dec: +63,000 Jan: -13,000 8 Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist 8
  10. 10. DRAFT Employment growth by super-sector peak to trough 9 Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist 9
  11. 11. DRAFT January 2014 December 2013 November 2013: January 2013: 10Filename/RPS Number 6.6 % 6.7 % 7.0 % 7.9 % Office of the Chief Economist 10
  12. 12. DRAFT January 2014: December 2013: November 2013: January 2013: 11Filename/RPS Number 58.8 % 58.6 % 58.6 % 58.6 % Office of the Chief Economist 11
  13. 13. DRAFT LFP has been essentially flat since October January 2014: December 2013: November 2013: January 2013: 12Filename/RPS Number 63.0 % 62.8 % 63.0 % 63.6 % Office of the Chief Economist 12
  14. 14. Long-term unemployment rate ticked down, but remains highest since 1983 January 2014: December 2013: November 2013: January 2013: 13Filename/RPS Number DRAFT 2.3 % 2.5 % 2.6 % 3.0 % Office of the Chief Economist 13
  15. 15. DRAFT Thank you! 14Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist 14
  16. 16. DRAFT CBO Report: Economic Projections Deficit, as a Percent of GDP Average, 1974-2013 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2007 15Filename/RPS Number 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Office of the Chief Economist 15
  17. 17. DRAFT CBO Report: Labor Force Projections Labor Force Participation Rate 68.0 Actual 66.0 Projected 64.0 62.9 62.0 60.8 60.0 58.0 56.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 16Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist 16
  18. 18. DRAFT CBO Report: Economic Projections Labor Income, Share of GDP Share of GDP 62.0 61.0 Actual 60.0 Projected 59.0 58.0 57.0 56.0 55.0 54.0 1980 17Filename/RPS Number 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Office of the Chief Economist 17
  19. 19. DRAFT Government job losses unprecedented 18Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist 18
  20. 20. DRAFT Private-sector growth over past 5 recoveries Recovery  comparison:  private  sector  job  growth   55  months  after  official  end  of  the  recession 14000 12000 jobs  added  (in  thousands) 10000 8000 Mar-­‐7 5 6000 Nov-­‐82 Mar-­‐9 1 Nov-­‐01 4000 Jun-­‐09 + 12,737 + 11,970 + 8,488 + 4,523 + 7,318 2000 0 -­‐2000 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 months  after  the  official  end  of  recession Source:  Bureau of  Labor  Statistics,  Current  Employment   Statistics   19Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist 19

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