The Labor Market Situation - February 2014 Jobs Report

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Dr Jennifer Hunt, U.S Department of Labor's Chief Economist reports on the Labor market situation for February 2014.

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The Labor Market Situation - February 2014 Jobs Report

  1. 1. DRAFT 00Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist0 The Labor Market Situation in February ― March 10, 2014 ― Dr. Jennifer Hunt Chief Economist U.S. Department of Labor Office of the Chief Economist
  2. 2. DRAFT 11Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist1 Payroll survey: stronger than expected 1-month change, in thousands • February 2014 162 • January 2014 145 • December 2013 86 12-month change, in thousands • January 2013 to 2014: 2,190 • Average: 183
  3. 3. DRAFT 22Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist2 But the longer trend still shows steady growth
  4. 4. DRAFT 33Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist3 Two employment surveys: CES & Payroll-concept-adjusted CPS
  5. 5. DRAFT 44Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist4 Employment growth by super-sector this month
  6. 6. DRAFT 55Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist5 Employment growth by super-sector over the year
  7. 7. DRAFT 66Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist6 Unemployment ticked back up… January 2014 6.7% January 2014 6.6% December 2013 6.7% February 2013: 7.7%
  8. 8. DRAFT 77Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist7 …employment rate was flat February 2014: 58.8% January 2014: 58.8% December 2013: 58.6% February 2013: 58.6%
  9. 9. DRAFT 88Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist8 LFP has been essentially flat since October February 2014: 63.0% January 2014: 63.0% December 2013: 62.8% February 2013: 63.5%
  10. 10. DRAFT 99Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist9 Not in Labor Force -94,000 Not in Labor Force 84,856,000 Employed +42,000 Unemployed +223,000 More unemployed got jobs than dropped out Employed 139,093,000 Unemployed 5,895,000 2,145,000 2,524,000 other 12,000 other 281,000 other 96,000
  11. 11. DRAFT 1010Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist10 Long-term unemployment rate ticked back up, but remains highest since 1983 February 2014: 2.5% January 2014: 2.3% December 2013: 2.5% February 2013: 3.0%
  12. 12. DRAFT 1111Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist11 Summary of month  Back to the pre-shutdown pattern of steady employment growth – Keeps up with population growth – Doesn’t do anything to employment rate  Rise in long-term unemployed – Note: in recovery, expect short-term unemployed to get jobs first – Those short term that don’t, become long-term – But sign of change not consistent across duration, think random fluctuation
  13. 13. DRAFT 1212Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist12 Let’s talk about the weather!
  14. 14. DRAFT 1313Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist13 Let’s talk about the weather!
  15. 15. DRAFT 1414Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist14 Sectors we have been following + weather  Construction – Dec: -22,000; Jan: +48,000; Feb: +15,000 – All adjustment happened in December? (Earlier start to seasonal layoffs)  Found most of the accountants – Dec: -32,000; Jan: +5000; Feb: +16,000  Motion pictures continued volatile  Retail – Dec: +63,000; Jan: -13,000; Feb: -4000 – Weather? Bounce-back from unusually high December?  Construction (employment) has shrugged off weather; retail unclear  For February, CEA calculates weather cost 23,000 jobs
  16. 16. DRAFT 1515Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist15 Weather and trend conclusions  Construction (employment) has shrugged off weather  Retail unclear, possibly underlying slowing  For February, CEA calculates weather cost 23,000 jobs  My guess: back to the steady but insufficient growth of pre-shutdown – Especially given downward revisions to GDP 4th Quarter
  17. 17. DRAFT 1616Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist16 Thank you!
  18. 18. DRAFT 1717Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist17 Employment growth by super-sector peak to trough
  19. 19. DRAFT 1818Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist18 Construction employment shrugged off weather (Perhaps seasonal layoffs simply occurred earlier than usual) 1-month change, in thousands • February 2014 15 • January 2014 50 • December 2013 -20 12-month change, in thousands • January 2013 to 2014: 152 • Average: 13

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