Renewable Energy in Nordic Countries - Alf Bjorseth - SCATEC - April 2010

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Presented at Nordic Green II conference, April 2010

Presented at Nordic Green II conference, April 2010

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  • 1. Renewable energy in the Nordic Countries Nordic Green 2010 Dr. Alf Bjørseth
  • 2. Agenda • Energy in Nordic countries • Solar Energy • Wind Energy • Future Solar Energy
  • 3. Norway - energy is important Norway (population of 4.7 million) is • the World’s 3rd largest natural gas exporter • the World’s 3rd largest oil exporter • the World’s 5th largest producer of hydro electricity • Hydro electricity covers 98.8 % of domestic electricity generation (in a normal year)
  • 4. Energy in Nordic countries Energy source Denmark Iceland Finland Norway Sweden Hydro electric x x x Oil & gas (x) x Nuclear x x Wind x pot. x Other x(thermal) x(biomass)
  • 5. Solar Energy
  • 6. Solar industry in Norway based on strong silicon competence - Norway used to be the World’s largest silicon producer
  • 7. REC’s Positions in the PV Value Chain Polysilicon Wafer Solar Cell Solar Module Systems Solar Grade ScanWafer ScanCell ScanModule SolEnergy Silicon (SW) (SC) (SM) (SE) (SGS)
  • 8. Main companies having an industrial basis for solar energy Metal. Poly- Ingot Wafer Cells Modules Systems Solar farms Customer silicon silicon
  • 9. Grid connected solar Mühlhausen, Germany (6.3MW) Pfeffenhausen, Germany (5.56 MW) Granswang, Germany (1.7 MW) Koppenzell, Germany (1.7 MW)
  • 10. Commercial roof installations Chateau St. Jean California, 700kW
  • 11. Decentralized Energy Generation Rampura Village, India 8,7kWp Mini grid system
  • 12. The Norwegian solar energy cluster - one of the worlds leading INNOTECH Solar
  • 13. Wind Energy
  • 14. Denmark – dedicated development of wind power • Wind power provided 19.7 percent of electricity production and 24.1% of capacity in Denmark in 2007 • is the world's leading supplier of wind power solutions • 12,5 per cent market share • more than 40,000 wind turbines installed
  • 15. Horn’s Rev – off the coast of Denmark • One of the world’s largest wind farms at sea • 80 turbines – 2 MW efficiency each – 14 – 20 km off shore, – Depth 6 – 14 meter • 160 MW total capacity • Provides electricity to 150,000 Danish households • Owned 60 % by Swedish Vattenfall
  • 16. Alpha Ventus off the coast of Germany – September 09 5 MW turbines – 45 km offshore, 30 meters depth
  • 17. Jacket installation CONFIDENTIAL
  • 18. NorWind has designed and intends to build a dedicated installation vessel Alpha Ventus learnt us that … and has designed a dedicated dedicated vessels are needed installation vessel that meets objectives Main objectives are: •Substantial installation cost reductions •Efficient operations •High utilization •Low risk and high HES standards CONFIDENTIAL
  • 19. Future of solar energy
  • 20. PV is now like a teenager: Approaching maturity in a non-linear fashion, including multiple crises – not yet able to pay its own way 2007 2008 2009 2010 Si scarcity; high prices Collapsing German FIT module reductions prices PV project financing Asian producers capturing challenging large market shares Not yet financially “In 2010 the sum-of-average cost of a c-Si system is self-sufficient (but $3.51/W, equivalent to a levelized solar electricity getting closer!): cost of $0.18/kWh in sunny environments.” Photon Consulting, 2010 Cost Report
  • 21. To grow up big & strong, PV needs competitive costs: System cost ~$2.1/Wp is required to reach $0.10/kWh in best locations $0.10/kWh ~average price of electricity in US copyright Mines ParisTech / Armines 2006 Average annual horizontal irradiance [kWh/m2 per year] 88 263 438 613 788 964 1139 1314 1489 1664 1840 2015 2190 2365 2540 Discount Calculation for rate LCOE [$/kWh] with module cost = 1.00 + non-module cost = 1.10 [$/Wp] 5 % 2,61 0,87 0,52 0,37 0,29 0,24 0,20 0,17 0,15 0,14 0,12 0,11 0,10 0,10 0,09 systems cost = 7 % 3,03 1,01 0,61 0,43 0,34 0,28 0,23 0,20 0,18 0,16 0,14 0,13 0,12 0,11 0,10 $2.10/Wp Key assumptions: Plant operation period: 20 yrs, Annual degradiation: 0.2 %, Opex: 50 $/kWp per yr, Corporate tax rate 30 %
  • 22. How close are we to ”Big and Strong”, and what are the needed efforts to get there? Cost Volume PV is rapidly getting close to Rapid growth, with a lot financial independence more in the pipeline •Best players already at •Incredible growth rate over the attractive cost levels past few years •Significant potential for further •A lot more in the pipeline improvements
  • 23. Sum-of-best practices c-Si module cost ~$1/Wp after dramatic cost reductions past year, lead by Asian manufacturers $/Wp NOTE: This is cost only, and best in class for each step in value chain – no one producer With best-in-class is close to $1/Wp all-in module cost Module non-module cost , total systems cost Cell for the sum-of-best Total players is Wafer approaching $2/Wp – with today’s Si technology! Examples / 7g/Wp; $30/kg Jinko at JA Solar < Solarfun at assumptions Si cost (DB ~$0.29/Wp $0.20/Wp in $0.30/Wp Feb 2010) Q4’09; Motech at ~$0.22/Wp Sources: Deutsche Bank (Feb 2010); Macquire (Apr 2010); Morgan Stanley (Mar 2010)
  • 24. Technical developments could further reduce PV cost $/Wp Module Cell Total Wafer Si Huge amount of Si Higher efficiency = key material is wasted in to cost reductions the process – what throughout value chain are the alternatives? – how?
  • 25. Huge amount of Si material is wasted in the process – what are the alternatives? ~Half the material E.g., SiGen, IMEC, others is wasted as kerf Kerf-free wafering – still under development losses in the Less usage wafer cutting per Watt of process silicon Direct wafer E.g., ribbon growth – quality and process cost would Wafers could be crystallization further favor significantly key issues high-quality thinner - wafers, i.e. representing Epitaxial Rapid development in Super-Mono further potential growth low-cost epi processes materials savings
  • 26. Installed volumes have grown quickly over the past few years… Annual world PV installations (GW) 2008-9 volume growth of 20%, despite •Financial crisis •Collapse of Spanish market 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: Solarbuzz
  • 27. …with a lot more supply coming; 20+ GW/y in 2010/11 Forecasted production (GW) Photon→ 2010E capacity ~31.7GW PV on track to produce “relevant” volumes very soon Deutsche Morgan Photon Deutsche Morgan Bank Stanley Bank Stanley 2010E 2011E Sources: Deutsche Bank (Feb 2010); Morgan Stanley (March 2010); Photon International (March 2010)
  • 28. Summary: Emerging low costs & large technological improvement potentials → rapidly maturing industry Emerging •$1/Wp module cost within reach low cost •Potential to further reduce systems costs significantly PV getting close to self- Innovation •Reduced Si usage (e.g., epitaxial growth) sufficiency – potential •Higher efficiency (e.g., cheap Super-Mono) with massive growth potential Growing ~20GW production expected in ‘10/11 – & scale “giants” from adjacent industries entering PV, further increasing growth potential
  • 29. BACK-UP
  • 30. BACK-UP Scale required: ~100 GW/y in order to substitute new coal with PV Trillion kWh 31,8 28,9 26,1 23,2 1 trillion kWh 20,7 corresponds to ½ Other TW PV capacity Wind Hydro times 2,000 sun hours Coal increases by ~1 trillion kWh per 5 years Coal This capacity increase is spread Gas over 5 years, i.e. we Nuclear need ~100 GW PV Liquids per year 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: EIA