Latin America Petrochemical and Polymers Outlook 9-13-12

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Latin America Petrochemical and Polymers Outlook 9-13-12

  1. 1. Petro Chemical Consulting g Alliance Latin America Petrochemical and Polymers Outlook by Jorge O. Bühler-Vidal ICIS World Chemical Purchasing Summit g Boston September 13, 2012 North Brunswick – Los Ángeles – Bogotá – São Paulo – Buenos Aires Bahía Blanca – Mendoza – Santiago – Porto Alegre – Guatemala – Atlanta – Charleston – Houston – New York Polyolefins Consulting, L.L.C.APLA Logística 12 de junio, 2012 www.polyolefinsconsulting.com
  2. 2. Outline O tli Introduction Producers and demand Growing companies Regional situation – Brazil – Bolivia – Peru – Venezuela – Mexico – Others The value chain Sourcing products and services Opportunities An A exploration of potential opportunities l ti f t ti l t iti Polyolefins Consulting, L.L.C.ICIS BOS September 13, 2012 www.polyolefinsconsulting.com
  3. 3. Petro Chemical Consulting g Alliance Provides consulting products and services to clients in the worldwide petrochemical and plastics industries, combining local insights with a global perspective Members – Dr. Alfredo Friedlander, Buenos Aires, Argentina – INovatius ICS, São Paulo, Brazil – Meem Consulting, Costa Mesa, CA, USA – Multidynamics Ltda., Bogotá, Colombia y , g , – Polyolefins Consulting, LLC, North Brunswick, NJ, USA The b Th broadest network of petrochemical consultants in the d t t k f t h i l lt t i th American continent Polyolefins Consulting, L.L.C.ICIS BOS September 13, 2012 www.polyolefinsconsulting.com
  4. 4. Petro Chemical Consulting g Functional and geographical coverage F ti l d hi l Alliance Highly experienced consultants Professionals specialized in: located throughout the l t d th h t th – P j Project planning l i Americas – Product development and – Argentina applications • Buenos Aires, Bahia Blanca, – Development and selection of Mendoza production t h l d ti technology – Brasil – Operations • São Paulo, Porto Alegre – Logistics – Chile – Commercialization, marketing and g • Santiago sales – Peru – Technology and technical service • Lima for converters – Colombia • Bogotá Relationships with related and – Guatemala complementary consulting firms • Guatemala – U.S.A. USA • Los Angeles, Houston, Atlanta, Charleston, New York Covering polyolefins and sectors of the petrochemical C i l l fi d t f th t h i l industry functionally and geographically Polyolefins Consulting, L.L.C.ICIS BOS September 13, 2012 www.polyolefinsconsulting.com
  5. 5. Latin A L ti America - A R i i Region K Known b by… Natural wonders and culture Is generating global brands Has H a generally positive ll iti business environment – The world’s most pacific region – Joined by two major languages – Generally stable governments t – Mildly affected by the global economic crisis – Generally investment friendly Where are the opportunities? Wh th t iti ? Polyolefins Consulting, L.L.C.ICIS BOS September 13, 2012 www.polyolefinsconsulting.com
  6. 6. External Perception of Latin America and the Caribbean C ibb Brasil, Chile, Peru and Colombia – Predictable without surprises Predictable, – Government encouraging investments and projects Bolivia, Ecuador, Trinidad & Tobago, and Venezuela – Vulnerable, depend on one main export product Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador and Venezuela – E ti economic policies, f Erratic i li i fuzzy models d l – Legal uncertainty México – Very interconnected with the U.S. US – Declining oil reserves Braskem and Petrobras are behind most of the regional polyolefins projects The most active area for petrochemical projects after Asia, Middle East, and U.S.-Canada Polyolefins Consulting, L.L.C.ICIS BOS September 13, 2012 www.polyolefinsconsulting.com
  7. 7. Significant Petrochemical Countries Gross Domestic P d t A G D ti Product Annual Growth [%] lG th Country 2009 2010 2011 2012 f 2013 f North America 2.0 20 2.2 22 2.5 25 Canada -2.8 3.2 2.5 2.1 2.2 Mexico -6.3 5.5 4.0 3.6 3.7 United States -3.5 3.0 1.7 2.1 2.4 South America 4.8 3.8 4.3 Argentina 1 0.9 9.2 8.9 4.2 4.0 Bolivia 3.4 4.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 Brazil -0.3 0.3 7.5 2.7 3.0 4.1 Chile -0.9 6.1 5.9 4.3 4.5 Colombia 1.7 4.0 5.9 4.7 4.4 Ecuador 0.4 3.6 7.8 4.5 3.9 Peru P 0.9 09 8.8 88 6.9 69 5.5 55 6.0 60 Venezuela -3.2 -1.5 4.2 4.7 3.2 Caribbean 2.8 3.5 3.6 Trinidad and Tobago -3.3 0.0 -1.3 1.7 2.4 Latin America and Caribbean -1.6 6.2 4.5 3.7 4.1 Source: IMF, April 2012. Figures are based on official GDP data. f - Forecasted figures. 1 Estimates by private analysts have shown growth that is, on average, significantly lower than official GDP growth from 2008 onward.. IMF sees Latin America very dependent on commodity prices, vulnerable to a slowdown in China and Asia Polyolefins Consulting, L.L.C.ICIS BOS September 13, 2012 www.polyolefinsconsulting.com
  8. 8. Capacity of L C it f Largest Thermoplastic Producers t Th l ti P d Americas PE – PP – PVC Worldwide 12,000 7,000 510 6,000 10,000 5,000 1,230 1 230 8,000 2,915 627 4,000 PVC kt/yr 6,000kt/yr 1,731 PP 10,914 PE 3,000 9,311 8,668 1,210 4,000 7,749 7,284 7,109 4,077 4,200 6,541 , 2,000 2 000 6,460 3,035 822 4,681 4,564 2,525 4,303 4,079 2,340 2,311 2,000 1,000 1,050 0 0 Lyondell Exxon Mobil Sinopec Dow Formosa SABIC INEOS Braskem Total IPIC Reliance PetroChina Braskem Exxon Mobil Dow Lyondell Basell Formosa Shintech Chevron Phillips Basell Source: Braskem Region has th R i h three of the world’s largest producers f th ld’ l t d Polyolefins Consulting, L.L.C. ICIS BOS September 13, 2012 www.polyolefinsconsulting.com
  9. 9. World Pl ti P d ti W ld Plastics Production 2010 Source: PlasticsEurope Latin A L ti America has potential for growth above its 5 % i h t ti l f th b it population proportionality Polyolefins Consulting, L.L.C.ICIS BOS September 13, 2012 www.polyolefinsconsulting.com
  10. 10. Plastics D Pl ti Demand by Region db R i 139 136 140 120 108 105 99 100 89 80 kg per capita 60 45 48 46 50 40 40 32 36 30 24 20 21 20 16 11 0 9 10 2015 e 7 NAFTA W. Europe p 2005 Japan J 2 Year Y World 3 C. Europe 1980 & CIS Latin America Asia other Region MEA Source: PlasticsEurope Latin A L ti America has potential for growth i h t ti l f th Polyolefins Consulting, L.L.C.ICIS BOS September 13, 2012 www.polyolefinsconsulting.com
  11. 11. Ethylene Projects - W ld Eth l P j t World EUROPE CHINA Capacity Start Up Capacity Start Up Company Country Status Company Status [kt/yr] [year] [kt/yr] [year] Repsol Polimeros Portugal 570 2011 delayed Baotailong/LongMay Mining Group 300 study Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat Russia 380 2015 engineering underway China Coal Shaanxi Yulin Energy & Chemical 570 2013 engineering underway Kazanorgsintez JSC - (KOS) Russia 605 2010 complete CNOOC 1,500 2016 study (feasibility) Nizhnekamskneftekhim Russia 1,000 , p planned CNOOC 1 000 1,000 2016 planned Novourengoyski Gas Chemical Complex Russia 340 2013 under construction Consortium 1,000 study Sibur Russia 1,500 2017 study Dalian Shide Group 1,300 2011 + study Taneco OJSC Russia 600 study Daqing Petrochemical 600 2T 2012 engineering underway VNHK - Rosneft Russia 1,400 planned Dow Chemical/Shenhua 600 delayed 6,395 FREP 1,100 4T 2013 planned Fushun Petrochemical 800 2T 2012 engineering underway Kuwait Petroleum/Sinopec 1,000 2015 under construction U.S. - CANADA Lanzhou Petrochemical 450 2Q 2011 planned Capacity Start Up Ningbo Lingzhou Chemical 40 planned Company Location Status [kt/yr] [year] PetroChina Sichuan Petrochemical 800 2013 delayedAither - Bayer Appalacchia - 2015 pre-feasibility Qingdao Petrochemical 1,000 Pre-2020 study (feasibility)Appalachian Resins NE U.S. 227 2016 study (feasibility) Rosneft / China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC) 1,200 studyBASF FINA Porth Arthur, TX - 2014 pre-feasibility Shaanxi Shenmu Chemical Industrial 150 2013 plannedBraskem - pre-feasibility Shaanxi Xingwang Group 350 2015 studyChevron Phillips Cedar Bayou, TX 1,500 2017 planned g p gy Shaanxi Yanchang Petroleum Group Yulin Energy &Dow Chemical Freeport, TX 1,500 2014-2017 study (feasibility) 80 engineering underway i i d ChemicalsDow Chemical 800 planned Shanghai Petrochemical Co. - (SPC) 700 2011-2012 studyEastman Longiew, TX - engineering underway Shanxi Coking 300 2T 2014 under constructionExxonMobil Baytown, TX 1,500 2016 engineering underway Sinochem Quanzhou Petrochemical 2,400 4T 2014 studyFormosa Point Comfort, TX 800 2016 pre-feasibility Sinopec 1,000 2016 study (feasibility)Indorama 1,300 2018 study (feasibility) Sinopec 1,000 2016 + study (feasibility)INEOS Chocolate Bayou, Alvin, TX 210 2013 study Sinopec 600 under constructionLyondellBasell Channelview, TX 227 2012 planned Sinopec Hainan Refining & Chemical Co. - (HRCC) 1,000 2015-2016 studyLyondellBasell Morris, IL 45 2013 planned Sinopec Shanghai Gaoqiao Petrochemical 1,000 studyLyondellBasell La Porte, TX 386 2014 planned MIDDLE EAST Sinopec Wuhan Petrochemical 800 H1 2013 under constructionLyondellBasell - Partner - study Sinopec/Henan Coal Chemical Group 900 planned Capacity Start UpMexichem - OxyChem Ingleside, TX 500 2016 study Company Country Status Skyford Chemical - 1H 2012 under construction [kt/yr] [year]Sasol Lake Charles, LA 1,400 2019 study Taizhou Petrochemical 1,200 2013 study Gachsaran Petrochemical Iran 1,000 2015 under constructionShell Monaca, PA 1,300 2016 pre-feasibility Ilam Petrochemical Iran 500 2015 under construction Wison Nanjing Chemical 145 2013 under constructionWestlake Chemical Calvert City, Ky 204 1H 2014 study Kavian Petrochemical Iran 1,000 1 000 2012 under construction Xinjiang Guanghui Industry - 2015 studyWestlake Chemical Lake Charles, LA 113 4Q 2012 study (feasibility) Kavian Petrochemical Iran 1,000 2013 engineering underway Yanchang Petroleum Group/Shaanxi Government 100 engineering underwayWestlake Chemical Lake Charles, LA 113 4Q 2014 study (feasibility) Persian Gulf Iran 600 2014 study Zhejiang Xingxing New Energy 300 2013Williams Geismar, LA 272 3Q 2013 study Equate Petrochemical Kuwait 1,400 2015 + study 25,285 TOTAL 12,397 Duqm Refinery and Petrochemical Complex - (DRPC) Oman - study (feasibility) Oman Petrochemical Industries Co. - (OPIC) Oman 850 1Q 2012 on hold ExxonMobil Chemical/Qatar Petroleum Qatar 1,600 4T 2015 study Qatar Petrochemical Co Ltd - (Qapco) Qatar 900 1Q 2014 study Ras Laffan Olefins Co. - (RLOC) Qatar 1,450 study Shell/Qatar Petroleum Qatar 1,300 2017 planned Rabigh Refining and Petrochemical - (Petro-Rabigh) Saudi Arabia 1,600 2015 study (feasibility) Sadara Chemical Saudi Arabia 1,500 2H 2015 approved Saudi Polymers Co Saudi Arabia 1,165 Q1 2012 complete Petkim Turkey 575 study Abu Dhabi National Chemicals (ChemaWEyaat) UAE 1 450 1,450 2015 + planned REST OF ASIA LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN Abu Dhabi Polymers Co Ltd - (Borouge) UAE 1,500 2T 2014 under construction Capacity Start Up Capacity Start Up Company Country Status Company Country Status 19,390 [kt/yr] [year] [kt/yr] [year] ASM Chemical Industries Bangladesh 300 study Dow Quimica Argentina 400 on hold Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymers Ltd. - (BCPL) India 220 1H 2013 engineering underway YPFB Bolivia 1,050 2016 bidding Indian Oil Corp - (IOC) India 850 2015 study Braskem JV Bolivia - Brazil 600 on hold ONGC Petro-additions Ltd - (OPaL) India 1,100 H1 2013 under construction Braskem Brazil 500 study Reliance India 1,400 4Q 2015 engineering underway COMPERJ Brazil 960 2018 planned Kazakhstan Petrochemical Industries - (KPI) Kazakhstan 840 2016 study Dow Chemical - Mitsui Brazil 350 2015 planned Petronas Malaysia 1,200 4T 2016 study (feasibility) Solvay Brazil 60 1Q 2015 planned Petronas Malaysia 1,000 study (feasibility) Ecopetrol Colombia 1,000 2017 pre-feasibility JG Summit Petrochemical Philippines 320 1H 2013 under construction PDV - CUPET Cuba 200 study ExxonMobil Singapore 1,000 2H 2012 under construction Braskem IDESA Mexico 1,050 1Q 2015 engineering underway Shell Singapore 960 2014-2015 planned Pemex Mexico 900 2014-2015 study South Korea 1,000 5 2012 planned Honam Petrochemical Pemex Mexico 900 2014 2015 2014-2015 study AFRICA Samsung Total Petrochemicals S T t lP t h i l South Korea S th K - 2011 under construction d t ti PetroPeru - Braskem Peru 1,200 2018 study Capacity Start Up Company Country Status Samsung Total Petrochemicals South Korea 1,000 2011 under construction Trinidad and [kt/yr] [year] SABIC and SINOPEC - study CPC Taiwan 600 1Q 2013 planned Tobago Total/Sonatrach Algeria 1,100 2014 delayed Kuokuang Petrochemical Technology Corp Taiwan 1,200 2015 uncertain Polimerica Venezuela 1,300 2015 study Sidi Kerir Petrochemicals - (Sidpec) Egypt 460 planned Long Son Petrochemical Co Vietnam 1,400 2014 study 10,470 Viva Polymers Ltd Nigeria - delayed 14,390 Sasol South Africa 48 approved 1,608 Sources: ICIS Chemical Business and Polyolefins Consulting Latin A L ti America has almost 12% of the global increase i h l t f th l b l i Polyolefins Consulting, L.L.C. ICIS BOS September 13, 2012 www.polyolefinsconsulting.com
  12. 12. Ethylene Projects - A Eth l P j t Americas i U.S. - CANADA Capacity Start Up Company Location Status [kt/yr] [year] Aither - Bayer Appalacchia - 2015 pre-feasibility Appalachian Resins NE U S U.S. 227 2016 study (feasibility) BASF FINA Porth Arthur, TX - 2014 pre-feasibility Braskem - pre-feasibility Chevron Phillips Cedar Bayou, TX 1,500 2017 planned Dow Chemical Freeport, TX 1,500 2014-2017 study (feasibility) Dow Chemical 800 planned Eastman Longiew, TX - engineering underway ExxonMobil Baytown, TX 1,500 2016 engineering underway Formosa Point Comfort, TX 800 2016 pre-feasibility Indorama 1,300 2018 study (feasibility) INEOS Chocolate B Ch l t Bayou, Al i TX Alvin, 210 2013 study t d LyondellBasell Channelview, TX 227 2012 planned LyondellBasell Morris, IL 45 2013 planned LyondellBasell La Porte, TX 386 2014 planned LyondellBasell - Partner - study Mexichem - OxyChem Ingleside, TX 500 2016 study Sasol Lake Charles, LA 1,400 2019 study Shell Monaca, PA 1,300 2016 pre-feasibility Westlake Chemical Calvert City, Ky 204 1H 2014 study Westlake Chemical Lake Charles, LA 113 4Q 2012 study (feasibility) Westlake Ch i l W tl k Chemical Lake Charles, LA L k Ch l 113 4Q 2014 study (f t d (feasibility) ibilit ) Williams Geismar, LA 272 3Q 2013 study TOTAL 12,397 LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN Capacity Start Up Company Country Status [kt/yr] [year] Dow Quimica Argentina 400 on hold YPFB Bolivia 1,050 2016 bidding Braskem JV B k Bolivia Brazil B li i - B il 600 on h ld hold Braskem Brazil 500 study COMPERJ Brazil 960 2018 planned Dow Chemical - Mitsui Brazil 350 2015 planned Solvay Brazil 60 1Q 2015 planned Ecopetrol Colombia 1,000 2017 pre-feasibility PDV - CUPET Cuba 200 study Braskem IDESA Mexico 1,050 1Q 2015 engineering underway Pemex Mexico 900 2014-2015 study Pemex Mexico 900 2014-2015 study PetroPeru - Braskem Peru 1,200 2018 study Trinidad and SABIC and SINOPEC - study Tobago Polimerica Venezuela 1,300 2015 study 10,470 Sources: ICIS Chemical Business and Polyolefins Consulting Abundant U.S. h l Ab d t U S shale gas i fl influences some Latin American L ti A i projects Polyolefins Consulting, L.L.C.ICIS BOS September 13, 2012 www.polyolefinsconsulting.com
  13. 13. Ethylene Projects – Addi Eth l P j t Adding 89,935 kt 89 935 Africa, 1,608 Europe, 6,395 China, 25,285 LAC, 10,470 U.S. - Canada, 11,670 ME, 19,390 Capacities in kt/yr ROA, 14,390 Source: ICIS Chemical Business and Polyolefins Consulting is displaced from 4th place in capacity increases LAC i di l df l i it i Polyolefins Consulting, L.L.C.ICIS BOS September 13, 2012 www.polyolefinsconsulting.com
  14. 14. PE Producers LAC Installed C I t ll d Capacity End of 2007, 2009 and 2012 it E d f 2007 d Rio Polimeros Dow 11% 13% Dow Ipiranga Pemex Quattor 13% 11% Pequiven 20% 19% 8% Polietilenos União 3% Pequiven Pet. Triunfo 10% Pequiven 3% 10% Dow Solvay Solvay Ecopetrol 14% 2% 2% 1% Ecopetrol E t l Ecopetrol Polimerica 1% 1% 0% Braskem - IDESA 0% Pemex 20% COMPERJ 0% Pemex Braskem 20% 27% Braskem 35% Braskem 56% 4,647 4 647 kt/yr 5,354 5 354 kt/yr 5,468 5 468 kt/yr Source: Polyolefins Consulting, LLC All Brazilian producers consolidated into Braskem Polyolefins Consulting, L.L.C.ICIS BOS September 13, 2012 www.polyolefinsconsulting.com
  15. 15. PP Producers LAC Installed C I t ll d Capacity End of 2007, 2009 and 2012 it E d f 2007 d Ipiranga Propilco 8% Propilco Petroken Indelpro Petroken 12% 16% 7% 8% 7% Indelpro Petroken Petroquim 5% Petroquim 16% 6% 6% Petroquim 4% Pet. Cuyo Pet. CuyoPropilco 5% 5% Pet. Cuyo 14% 4% Propilven Propilven 4% Propilven Indelpro 4% 3% 22% Propilsur 0% Quattor 25% Braskem B k 21% Suzano Pet. Braskem 27% 31% Braskem 40% 2,650 kt/yr , y 3, 85 t/y 3,485 kt/yr 3,835 kt/yr t/y Source: Polyolefins Consulting, LLC Braskem incorporated Ipiranga and Quattor Indelpro Quattor, surpassed Propilco Polyolefins Consulting, L.L.C. ICIS BOS September 13, 2012 www.polyolefinsconsulting.com
  16. 16. Petrochemicals Multilatinas Becoming Global P t h i l M ltil ti B i Gl b l Alpek – Mexico – The leading producer of PTA and polyester fibers in the Americas and th second i PET only PP producer i M i A i d the d in PET, l d in Mexico, operates the largest expanded PS unit in the Americas – Operates 20 plants in the Mexico, Argentina, and U.S. Braskem – Brazil – Largest thermoplastic resins producer in the Americas, eight largest in the world, largest biopolymer producer – Operates plants in Brazil, Germany, Mexico (2015) and U.S. Mexichem – Mexico – Produces vinyl chloride monomer (VCM); PVC in Mexico and Colombia; compounds in Mexico, Colombia and U.S.; and PVC pipe throughout LA and Europe – Has 95 plants in 19 countries Oxiteno – Brazil – Largest producer of surfactants in Latin America – “To be recognized as the best Surfactants and Specialty To Chemicals company in the Americas” – Operates plants in Brazil, Mexico, U.S. (2013), Uruguay, and Venezuela Latin A L ti American petrochemical companies are global i t h i l i l b l competitors Polyolefins Consulting, L.L.C.ICIS BOS September 13, 2012 www.polyolefinsconsulting.com
  17. 17. Alpek Mexico Al k – M i Alfa’s petrochemicals and synthetic fib th ti fibers business group b i Produces PTA, PET, PP, EPS, caprolactam, urethanes, gy glycols, chemical specialties, , p , polyester fibers and nylon polymers DAK – the leading producer of PTA and polyester fibers in the Americas and second in PET – also operates the largest EPS production site Indelpro – only PP producer in Mexico. Plants in Mexico, Argentina and U.S. 2011 revenues US$ 6.5 billion, earnings US$ 577 million Expanding organically and through acquisitions E di i ll d th h i iti Polyolefins Consulting, L.L.C.ICIS BOS September 13, 2012 www.polyolefinsconsulting.com
  18. 18. Braskem – B il B k Brazil Largest resin producer in the Americas A i – Building 1 million t/yr of C2 and 1 million t/yr of PE with IDESA in Mexico – Developing projects in Peru and Venezuela – Considering project in Bolivia – Participating in COMPERJ – Evaluating additional U.S. acquisitions and expansions – Producing “green” PE from sugar green cane ethanol Plants in Brazil, U.S. and Germany 2011 revenues US$ 17.7 billion, earnings US$ -280 million C l b ti its 10th anniversary Celebrating it i Polyolefins Consulting, L.L.C.ICIS BOS September 13, 2012 www.polyolefinsconsulting.com
  19. 19. Mexichem – M i M i h Mexico Most important chlorine, caustic soda, PVC and pipe producer in d d i d i Latin America and Europe Over last few years made numerous acquisitions q – Bayshore Group (U.S.); Amanco (Latin America); Petco (Colombia); Geon Polimeros Andinos (Colombia); Dripsa (Argentina); Colpozos (Colombia); Bidim (Brazil); Comindustrias (Peru); Polycid and Plasticos Rex (Mexico); INEOS Fluor (U.S., Europe, Asia); Plastisur (Peru); AlphaGary (U.S., Canada, UK); Wavin (Europe) 2011 revenues US$ 3.4 billion, earnings US$ 194 million Evaluating E l ti JV with OxyChem to produce 500 kt/yr of C2 i ith O Ch t d kt/ f in Texas Polyolefins Consulting, L.L.C.ICIS BOS September 13, 2012 www.polyolefinsconsulting.com
  20. 20. Oxiteno – B il O it Brazil Is a leading manufacturer of surfactants and specialty chemicals operating worldwide Largest producer of prod cer surfactants in Latin America Net revenue of US$ 1,438 billion in 2011 Plants in Brazil, Mexico, Uruguay and Venezuela 2011 revenues US$ 1 31.3 billion, earnings US$ 83 million Strengthening global presence with acquisitions in Brazil, St th i l b l ith i iti i B il Uruguay and U.S. Polyolefins Consulting, L.L.C.ICIS BOS September 13, 2012 www.polyolefinsconsulting.com
  21. 21. Brazil B il One of the best economic outlooks in the region – The world s 6th largest economy world’s – Stable economy aided by • Exports to China • Petrobras pre-salt program success – R Rousseff administration maintains and projects confidence ff d i i t ti i t i d j t fid Petrobras – Fourth largest public company in the Americas, after ExxonMobil, Microsoft and Wal Mart Wal-Mart – Planning to be among the largest five integrated energy companies in the world – Pre salt reserves provide large increase of gas and oil offerings Braskem – Largest plastic resin producer in the Americas – Planning to be among the largest five petrochemical companies in 2020 Largest producer of biopolymers – Braskem and Dow-Mitsui build world scale plants Able governmental political and diplomatic support helps its business grow and seduce the world Polyolefins Consulting, L.L.C.ICIS BOS September 13, 2012 www.polyolefinsconsulting.com
  22. 22. Bolivia Industrializing Natural Gas B li i – I d t i li i N t lG YPFB accountable for petrochemical projects Carrasco – Ammonia-urea plant awarded to Samsung • Will produce 650 kt/yr of d kt/ f ammonia and 726 kt/yr of Urea • Start up by 4Q2015 Yacuiba – Liquid Separation Plant awarded to Técnicas Reunidas • By 2021 will process 27.7 million m3/d of natural gas before crossing border into Argentina • Start up by 2014 – Plan to award conceptual Source: CIA The World Factbook engineering for 1050 kt/yr of C2 and PE by October 18, 2012 • Start up by 2016 Major M j projects under way, some concern about natural j t d b t t l gas reserves and availability Polyolefins Consulting, L.L.C.ICIS BOS September 13, 2012 www.polyolefinsconsulting.com
  23. 23. Peru P t P Petrochemical Complexes h i lC l Grupo Brescia (Peru) and Grupo Sigdo Koppers (Chile) – 800 kt/yr ammonia y 350 kt/r ammonium nitrate at Pisco – US$ 650 million – Project under way CF Industries (U.S.) – 1 million t/yr urea at San Juan de Marcona, Ica – US$ 1 billi billion – Orica Mining (Australia) with ammonium nitrate – On hold Braskem, Petrobras and PetroPeru – 1,200 kt/yr ethylene and PE by 2018 at Ilo – Requires over 40 million m3 natural Source: CIA The World Factbook gas to be viable and 1000 km duct from Camisea to the South Successive administrations – Fujimori Toledo, Garcia Fujimori, Toledo and Humala – promoted petrochemical projects Polyolefins Consulting, L.L.C.ICIS BOS September 13, 2012 www.polyolefinsconsulting.com
  24. 24. Venezuela - Th Petrochemical Revolution V l The P t h i lR l ti Jose project delayed to – Match expected sales upswing by 2014 – Have better access to financing – Negotiate reduction in process equipment and contractor costs PP plant will be built in Paraguaná – Propylene availability reduces investment from US$ 1200 to 500 million Reconsidering PE plans Some uncertainty regarding natural gas availability Source: Pequiven Reconsidered Jose PE projects, potential move to Paraguaná, projects Paraguaná capacity increases in U.S. reduce attractive Polyolefins Consulting, L.L.C.ICIS BOS September 13, 2012 www.polyolefinsconsulting.com
  25. 25. Mexico M i Continuously decreasing oil production and revenue Large resin importer, specially PE – Installed PE capacity in 2010 is 1.078 million t/yr – Importing approximately 600 kt – Estimate that by 2015 Mexico will require 1.9 million t/yr PE Etileno XXI - IDESA and Braskem – PPemex Gas will provide 66 thousand b/d of ethane G ill id th d f th – Cracker for 1,05 million t/yr of ethylene – Two 375 kt/yr MDPE/HDPE each, and 300 kt/yr LDPE/EVA – Start up in 2015 Market even more anxious for new capacity while capacity, processors continue losing ground against imports Polyolefins Consulting, L.L.C.ICIS BOS September 13, 2012 www.polyolefinsconsulting.com
  26. 26. Other Oth countries ti Argentina Ecuador Colombia Cuba Trinidad and Tobago Polyolefins Consulting, L.L.C.ICIS BOS September 13, 2012 www.polyolefinsconsulting.com
  27. 27. Southern Cone Shale Gas Potential S th C Sh l G P t ti l Technically Risked Gas Recoverable Country In Place Resource TCF TCF Argentina 2732 774 Bolivia 192 48 Brasil 906 226 Chile 287 64 Paraguay 249 62 Uruguay 83 21 TOTAL 4440 1195 TCF – trillion cubic feet Source: EIA – World Shale Gas Resources Another ift f A th gift from nature to be extracted promoting general t t b t t d ti l welfare y and with great respect with the environment Polyolefins Consulting, L.L.C.ICIS BOS September 13, 2012 www.polyolefinsconsulting.com
  28. 28. Polyolefins Chain in Latin America Strength and Proportion 1st Generation Oil and 2nd Generation 3rd Generation End users and Country Ethylene y gas PE - PP Processors P markets k t Propylene Argentina Brazil Chile Peru Colombia Venezuela Trinidad & Tobago Mexico Arrow thickness represents relative strength Source: Gas Energy, Polyolefins Consulting Energy Countries have very obvious needs and more hidden ones Polyolefins Consulting, L.L.C.ICIS BOS September 13, 2012 www.polyolefinsconsulting.com
  29. 29. Polyolefins R P l l fi Raw Materials Availability M t i l A il bilit Argentina Brazil Chile Bolivia Peru Colombia Venezuela Trinidad & Central Mexico Tobago America Resources Oil - Nat. gas - B i petrochemicals – 1st generation Basic t h i l ti High Ethylene - - - - Medium Low Propylene - - - - Very low - None C4 - - - - - - - - No data C6 - - - - - - - - - - C8 - - - - - - - - - - VA - - - - - - - - - Catalysts - - - - - - - - - Co catalysts y - - - - - - - - - - Additives Source: Polyolefins Consulting Should dd l t Sh ld add value to extracted raw materials t t d t i l Polyolefins Consulting, L.L.C.ICIS BOS September 13, 2012 www.polyolefinsconsulting.com
  30. 30. Polyolefins A il bilit P l l fi Availability and Processing dP i Argentina Brazil Chile Bolivia Peru Colombia Venezuela Trinidad & Central Mexico Tobago America Resins – 2nd generation PE - - - - EVA - - - - - - - - - Acrylate cop. - - - - - - - - - - High Medium PP - - - - Low Machinery Very low manufacturing - None No data Processing Compounding Market size End users Recycling Waste mgmt. mgmt Source: Polyolefins Consulting There are business opportunities in all countries Th b i t iti i ll ti Polyolefins Consulting, L.L.C.ICIS BOS September 13, 2012 www.polyolefinsconsulting.com
  31. 31. Some R i S Regional Petrochemical Offerings lP t h i l Off i Chemicals Raw materials – Commodity – Biodiesel • Ethylene oxide – Ethanol • Monoethylene g y y glycol – From Argentina and Brazil g – Specialty • Surfactants • Softeners • Dispersants • Emulsifiers • Hydraulic fluids • Leather chemicals – From Brazil. Mexico, Venezuela and Uruguay for h i l f chemicals and raw materials … d t i l Polyolefins Consulting, L.L.C.ICIS BOS September 13, 2012 www.polyolefinsconsulting.com
  32. 32. Some R i S Regional Petrochemical Offerings lP t h i l Off i Polymers Additives – Commodity – Calcium stearate, zinc • PE, PP, PET, PVC stearate, magnesium – Specialty p y stearate, potassium stearate • UHMWPE – Phthalic Anhydride • Bio PE and PP – Plasticizers & Auxiliaries – Braskem Dow, others Braskem, Dow – From Brazil and Argentina – Corporacion Sierra Madre (Mexico) – Varteco Quimica Puntana (Argentina) for l f polymers and additives … d dditi Polyolefins Consulting, L.L.C.ICIS BOS September 13, 2012 www.polyolefinsconsulting.com

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