BT Financial Monthly Market Chart - February 2010

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BT Financial Monthly Market Chart: February 2010. Global share markets were mixed in February. For the latest market figures, check out the February 2010 BT chart pack.

BT Financial Monthly Market Chart: February 2010. Global share markets were mixed in February. For the latest market figures, check out the February 2010 BT chart pack.

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  • 1. BT Monthly Markets Chart Pack – February 2010 An overview of movements in global financial markets
  • 2. Global share markets were mixed in February...
    • Global share markets proved to be a mixed bag in February as concerns over the debt levels of some European countries, particularly Greece, countered a speech by US Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke, in which he said that US interest rates will remain low for some time yet. Share markets were higher in the UK (+3.2%) and the US (+2.9%) but lower in Europe (-1.7%) and Japan (-0.7%).
    • The Australian share market made good gains in February, with the S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index closing the month 2.1% higher. The result came after stronger jobs numbers and better-than-expected bank earnings overshadowed concerns that the Euro-zone’s sovereign debt problems will stall the global recovery.
  • 3. … but continue to perform well over the long-term, despite some major market events Global shares measured by the MSCI World ex-Australia (net dividends) Index in A$. Source: BT Financial Group, MSCI Impact of major market events on global shares since 1987 Jan 91 Gulf War Feb 94 Bond Market Crash Aug 97 Asian Currency Crisis Jul 98 Russian Bond Crisis Jul 01 Tech Wreck Sep 01 Attack on Twin Towers Jun 07 US Sub-prime Crisis Nov 89 Fall of the Berlin Wall Mar 03 Troops enter Iraq
  • 4. The Australian share market closed 2.1% higher in February Source: BT Financial Group, Premium Data S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index – year to 28 February 2010
  • 5. Key Australian economic news – February
    • The RBA raised interest rates by 0.25% following its early March meeting, taking the official cash rate to 4.00%. The move comes after three consecutive months of rates rises at the end of last year.
    • The Westpac/Melbourne Institute’s consumer sentiment survey fell 2.6% in February, despite the RBA’s decision to leave interest rates on hold that month.
    • The Australian economy added 52,700 jobs in January – the most for any month in three years – which pushed the local unemployment rate down to just 5.3%.
    • After jumping 1.5% in November, retail trade fell 0.7% in December to close the year 2.1% higher.
    • Housing finance dropped by 2.7% in December but still ended the year 19.5% higher thanks in part to the Government’s first home owner’s grant.
    Source: BT Financial Group
  • 6. The Australian dollar rose against the US dollar in February
    • The Australian dollar (A$) rose against the US dollar in February, gaining 1.2% on the back of stronger commodity prices and expectations that the Reserve Bank will continue to raise interest rates over the near-term.
    •  
    • The A$ is now up 49% against the US$ since hitting a low of US$0.6012 cents back in October 2008.
    • At the end of February:
      • A$1 bought US$0.8948 +1.2%
      • € 0.6568 +2.9%
      • ¥79.46 -0.5%
    Source: BT Financial Group
  • 7. The Australian dollar versus the US dollar… Currency markets – A$ per US dollar Source: BT Financial Group. Figures at 28 February 2010
  • 8. the Euro… Currency markets – A$ per Euro Source: BT Financial Group. Figures at 28 February 2010
  • 9. and the Yen Currency markets – A$ per Yen Source: BT Financial Group. Figures at 28 February 2010
  • 10. Official world interest rate movements – February
    • Interest rates in the major economies remained unchanged in February. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised the official cash rate by 0.25% (to 4.00%) in early March.
    Source: BT Financial Group Current rate Last moved Direction of last move Australia 4.00% Mar 2010 US 0% - 0.25% Dec 2008 Europe (ECB) 1.00% May 2009 Japan 0.10% Dec 2008 United Kingdom 0.50% Mar 2009
  • 11. Global share market returns Source: BT Financial Group 28 February 2010 1 year 3 years (pa) 5 years (pa) Global S&P 500 Index (US) 50.25% -7.75% -1.70% Nasdaq (US Tech.) 62.45% -2.52% 1.76% Nikkei 225 (Japan) 33.79% -16.83% -2.92% Hang Seng (Hong Kong) 60.86% 1.60% 7.74% DAX (Germany) 45.65% -5.88% 5.17% CAC (France) 37.24% -12.40% -1.63% FTSE 100 (UK) 39.80% -4.62% 1.51% Australia S&P/ASX 200 Accum. Ind. 44.70% -3.21% 6.68% S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries 63.05% -8.30% 4.28% S&P/ASX 300 Listed Prop. 42.60% -24.31% -7.44%
  • 12. Short-term asset class performance Source: S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index, MSCI World ex-Australia (net dividends) Index in A$, S&P/ASX 300 Property Index, UBS Composite 0+ years index, Barclays Capital Global Aggregate Bond Index hedged to $A , UBS Bank Bill 0+ years 1-year rolling returns to 28 February 2010 (%) Best performing asset class for the year 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 Australian cash 3.48 7.12 6.83 6.16 5.80 5.57 5.03 4.86 4.91 6.35 5.17 5.11 5.49 7.28 7.87 5.98 Australian bonds 3.45 14.45 2.37 4.10 6.79 5.60 2.75 9.63 3.85 12.48 1.54 7.10 13.60 12.49 14.57 -1.31 Australian property 42.60 -58.24 -27.20 33.45 17.42 25.77 14.98 10.23 14.54 14.28 4.68 2.75 25.78 18.74 12.02 -3.19 Australian shares 45.06 -37.26 -0.76 23.77 23.08 29.57 25.77 -14.70 6.28 9.63 18.06 9.21 13.72 11.65 23.83 -7.87 International bonds 10.79 6.22 7.74 5.41 6.16 7.33 6.95 12.24 7.35 11.51 1.10 8.21 11.06 11.00 15.90 2.36 International shares 9.03 -22.15 -16.60 8.93 20.97 8.42 13.37 -32.73 -13.23 0.29 20.20 23.81 41.85 11.82 19.36 -2.81
  • 13. Short-term asset class performance (cont’d) Source: S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index, MSCI World ex-Australia (net dividends) Index in A$, S&P/ASX 300 Property Index, UBS Composite 0+ years index, Barclays Capital Global Aggregate Bond Index hedged to $A 1-year returns to 28 February 2010 (%) 28 February 2009 28 February 2010 Australian bonds Listed property Australian shares Global bonds Global shares
  • 14. Long-term asset class performance Note: Accumulated returns based on $1,000 invested in December 1984 Source: S&P/ASX 300 Accumulation Index, MSCI World ex-Australia (net dividends) Index in A$, S&P/ASX 300 Property Index, UBS Composite 0+ years index, UBS Bank Bill 0+ years 28 February 2010 Australian bonds Listed property Australian shares Cash Global shares
  • 15. Oil prices closed February 9.3% higher amid reports that global demand will rise throughout 2010 Source: BT Financial Group. West Texas Intermediate oil price at 28 February 2010 Oil prices – US$ per barrel
  • 16.
    • This presentation has been prepared by BT Financial Group Limited (ABN 63 002 916 458 ) ‘BT’ and is for general information only.  Every effort has been made to ensure that it is accurate, however it is not intended to be a complete description of the matters described.  The presentation has been prepared without taking into account any personal objectives, financial situation or needs.  It does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any securities advice or securities recommendation.  Furthermore, it is not intended that it be relied on by recipients for the purpose of making investment decisions and is not a replacement of the requirement for individual research or professional tax advice.  BT does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information which is contained in this presentation.  Except insofar as liability under any statute cannot be excluded, BT and its directors, employees and consultants do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this presentation or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person.  Unless otherwise noted, BT is the source of all charts; and all performance figures are calculated using exit to exit prices and assume reinvestment of income, take into account all fees and charges but exclude the entry fee.  It is important to note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
    • This document was accompanied by an oral presentation, and is not a complete record of the discussion held.
    • No part of this presentation should be used elsewhere without prior consent from the author.
    • For more information, please call BT Customer Relations on 132 135 8:00am to 6:30pm (Sydney time)