BT Financial Monthly Market Chart - January 2010
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BT Financial Monthly Market Chart - January 2010

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BT Financial Monthly Markets Chart: January 2010. An overview of movements in global financial markets. Prepared by BT Wrap for the adviser market. Includes review of global share markets as well as ...

BT Financial Monthly Markets Chart: January 2010. An overview of movements in global financial markets. Prepared by BT Wrap for the adviser market. Includes review of global share markets as well as Australian share market, dominant currencies, interest rates and both short and long term asset classes.

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BT Financial Monthly Market Chart - January 2010 BT Financial Monthly Market Chart - January 2010 Presentation Transcript

  • BT Monthly Markets Chart Pack – January 2010 An overview of movements in global financial markets
  • Global share markets were weaker in January...
    • Global share markets got off to a rocky start in 2010 after earnings reports from several US banks failed to meet analysts’ expectations and President Barrack Obama announced plans to clamp down on banks’ risk-taking. In the US, the benchmark S&P 500 Index closed January down 3.7% and this had a negative knock-on effect elsewhere, with markets in Europe (-6.4%), the UK (-4.1%) and Japan (-3.3%) all closing the month lower.
    • The Australian share market fell sharply in January, with the S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index closing the month 6.2% lower amid concerns that China – who initiated moves to curb its bank lending in January – may soon begin to raise interest rates. A poor lead from the US market also contributed to the fall.
  • … but continue to perform well over the long-term, despite some major market events Global shares measured by the MSCI World ex-Australia (net dividends) Index in A$. Source: BT Financial Group, MSCI Impact of major market events on global shares since 1987 Jan 91 Gulf War Feb 94 Bond Market Crash Aug 97 Asian Currency Crisis Jul 98 Russian Bond Crisis Jul 01 Tech Wreck Sep 01 Attack on Twin Towers Jun 07 US Sub-prime Crisis Nov 89 Fall of the Berlin Wall Mar 03 Troops enter Iraq
  • The Australian share market closed 6.2% lower in January Source: BT Financial Group, Premium Data S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index – year to 31 January 2010
  • Key Australian economic news – January
    • The RBA left interest rates unchanged at just 3.75% following its early February meeting. The decision came as a surprise after a Bloomberg survey of 17 economists showed that all respondents predicted a rise in the official cash rate.
    • The Westpac/Melbourne Institute’s consumer sentiment survey ended a run of two consecutive monthly declines in January, gaining 5.6% to be 33.6% higher for the year.
    • The Australian economy added 35,200 jobs in December, sending the local unemployment rate down to just 5.5%.
    • Housing finance fell 1.6% in December but remains 32.2% higher for the year thanks to the government’s decision to raise the first home owner’s grant.
    • Consumer prices rose by 0.5% in the December quarter and 2.1% for the year. The result comes after a 1.0% jump in inflation in the September quarter.
    Source: BT Financial Group
  • The Australian dollar fell for a second consecutive month against the US dollar
    • The Australian dollar fell against the US dollar (US$) in January, losing 1.4% after stronger-than-expected December quarter growth in the US sparked speculation that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates sooner rather than later.
    • It was the Australian dollar’s second consecutive monthly decline against the US$, though it remains 47% higher against its US counterpart since its low in October 2008.
    • At the end of January:
      • A$1 bought US$0.8844 -1.4%
      • € 0.6383 +1.9%
      • ¥79.83 -4.2%
    Source: BT Financial Group
  • The Australian dollar versus the US dollar… Currency markets – A$ per US dollar Source: BT Financial Group. Figures at 31 January 2010
  • the Euro… Currency markets – A$ per Euro Source: BT Financial Group. Figures at 31 January 2010
  • and the Yen Currency markets – A$ per Yen Source: BT Financial Group. Figures at 31 January 2010
  • Official world interest rate movements – January
    • Interest rates in the major economies were again unchanged in January. The Reserve Bank of Australia surprised the market when it decided to leave the official cash rate unchanged at just 3.75% in early February.
    Source: BT Financial Group Current rate Last moved Direction of last move Australia 3.75% Dec 2009 US 0% - 0.25% Dec 2008 Europe (ECB) 1.00% May 2009 Japan 0.10% Dec 2008 United Kingdom 0.50% Mar 2009
  • Global share market returns Source: BT Financial Group 31 January 2010 1 year 3 years (pa) 5 years (pa) Global S&P 500 Index (US) 30.03% -9.28% -1.89% Nasdaq (US Tech.) 45.44% -4.48% 0.81% Nikkei 225 (Japan) 27.57% -16.29% -2.18% Hang Seng (Hong Kong) 51.54% 0.03% 7.96% DAX (Germany) 29.28% -6.17% 5.68% CAC (France) 25.74% -12.64% -0.91% FTSE 100 (UK) 25.04% -5.78% 1.35% Australia S&P/ASX 200 Accum. Ind. 35.16% -3.37% 6.69% S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries 52.85% -7.78% 4.17% S&P/ASX 300 Listed Prop. 17.59% -24.80% -8.17%
  • Short-term asset class performance Source: S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index, MSCI World ex-Australia (net dividends) Index in A$, S&P/ASX 300 Property Index, UBS Composite 0+ years index, Barclays Capital Global Aggregate Bond Index hedged to $A , UBS Bank Bill 0+ years 1-year rolling returns to 31 January 2010 (%) Best performing asset class for the year 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 Australian cash 3.42 7.39 6.78 6.09 5.77 5.62 4.95 4.82 5.05 6.32 5.09 5.13 5.54 7.45 7.96 0.72 Australian bonds 1.67 15.16 4.24 3.45 5.91 7.23 2.44 9.20 3.94 14.02 -1.89 8.86 12.72 11.29 20.10 -0.07 Australian property 17.59 -52.85 -23.30 38.86 10.62 32.67 8.75 13.86 15.18 20.12 -6.51 12.91 27.10 10.63 20.93 -2.23 Australian shares 35.16 -34.32 1.63 22.22 25.36 30.88 15.58 -11.38 7.16 12.19 14.63 10.95 13.94 10.78 30.32 -3.89 International bonds 10.18 6.64 8.51 4.42 5.59 8.99 6.83 11.64 7.56 11.50 -1.10 9.95 11.27 9.09 19.82 1.79 International shares -3.33 -17.28 -14.01 13.41 19.71 7.96 7.33 -31.04 -14.50 8.97 13.65 35.12 31.07 10.29 26.91 0.96
  • Short-term asset class performance (cont’d) Source: S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index, MSCI World ex-Australia (net dividends) Index in A$, S&P/ASX 300 Property Index, UBS Composite 0+ years index, Barclays Capital Global Aggregate Bond Index hedged to $A 1-year returns to 31 January 2010 (%) 31 January 2009 31 January 2010 Australian bonds Listed property Australian shares Global bonds Global shares
  • Long-term asset class performance Note: Accumulated returns based on $1,000 invested in December 1984 Source: S&P/ASX 300 Accumulation Index, MSCI World ex-Australia (net dividends) Index in A$, S&P/ASX 300 Property Index, UBS Composite 0+ years index, UBS Bank Bill 0+ years 31 January 2010 Australian bonds Listed property Australian shares Cash Global shares
  • Oil prices fell amid speculation that China may soon begin to raise interest rates (thus reducing oil demand) Source: BT Financial Group. West Texas Intermediate oil price at 31 January 2010 Oil prices – US$ per barrel
    • This presentation has been prepared by BT Financial Group Limited (ABN 63 002 916 458 ) ‘BT’ and is for general information only.  Every effort has been made to ensure that it is accurate, however it is not intended to be a complete description of the matters described.  The presentation has been prepared without taking into account any personal objectives, financial situation or needs.  It does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any securities advice or securities recommendation.  Furthermore, it is not intended that it be relied on by recipients for the purpose of making investment decisions and is not a replacement of the requirement for individual research or professional tax advice.  BT does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information which is contained in this presentation.  Except insofar as liability under any statute cannot be excluded, BT and its directors, employees and consultants do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this presentation or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person.  Unless otherwise noted, BT is the source of all charts; and all performance figures are calculated using exit to exit prices and assume reinvestment of income, take into account all fees and charges but exclude the entry fee.  It is important to note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
    • This document was accompanied by an oral presentation, and is not a complete record of the discussion held.
    • No part of this presentation should be used elsewhere without prior consent from the author.
    • For more information, please call BT Customer Relations on 132 135 8:00am to 6:30pm (Sydney time)