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Myers MFE2009

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USC Demographer Dowell Myers presents a demographic forecast for the multifamily industry at MFE2009

USC Demographer Dowell Myers presents a demographic forecast for the multifamily industry at MFE2009

Published in: Real Estate, Business

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  • 2007 Demog Workshop 5-21-07
  • 2007 Demog Workshop 5-21-07
  • 2007 Demog Workshop 5-21-07
  • 2007 Demog Workshop 5-21-07
  • 2007 Demog Workshop 5-21-07
  • 2007 Demog Workshop 5-21-07
  • 2007 Demog Workshop 5-21-07
  • 2007 Demog Workshop 5-21-07
  • 2007 Demog Workshop 5-21-07
  • 2007 Demog Workshop 5-21-07
  • 2007 Demog Workshop 5-21-07
  • 2007 Demog Workshop 5-21-07
  • 2007 Demog Workshop 5-21-07
  • 2007 Demog Workshop 5-21-07
  • 2007 Demog Workshop 5-21-07
  • 2007 Demog Workshop 5-21-07
  • 2007 Demog Workshop 5-21-07
  • 2007 Demog Workshop 5-21-07
  • 2007 Demog Workshop 5-21-07
  • 2007 Demog Workshop 5-21-07
  • 2007 Demog Workshop 5-21-07
  • 2007 Demog Workshop 5-21-07
  • 2007 Demog Workshop 5-21-07
  • 2007 Demog Workshop 5-21-07 Dowell Myers, USC
  • 2007 Demog Workshop 5-21-07 Dowell Myers, USC
  • 2007 Demog Workshop 5-21-07 Dowell Myers, USC
  • 2007 Demog Workshop 5-21-07
  • 2007 Demog Workshop 5-21-07
  • 2007 Demog Workshop 5-21-07
  • 2007 Demog Workshop 5-21-07
  • 2007 Demog Workshop 5-21-07
  • 2007 Demog Workshop 5-21-07
  • 2007 Demog Workshop 5-21-07
  • 2007 Demog Workshop 5-21-07
  • 2007 Demog Workshop 5-21-07
  • 2007 Demog Workshop 5-21-07
  • 2007 Demog Workshop 5-21-07
  • 2007 Demog Workshop 5-21-07
  • 2007 Demog Workshop 5-21-07
  • 2007 Demog Workshop 5-21-07
  • 2007 Demog Workshop 5-21-07
  • 2007 Demog Workshop 5-21-07
  • 2007 Demog Workshop 5-21-07
  • 2007 Demog Workshop 5-21-07 Dowell Myers, USC
  • 2007 Demog Workshop 5-21-07
  • 2007 Demog Workshop 5-21-07
  • 2007 Demog Workshop 5-21-07
  • 2007 Demog Workshop 5-21-07
  • Transcript

    • 1. Demand and Demographics with Dowell Myers
    • 2. The Big Questions
      • Did demographics cause the boom ...and also the bust?
      • Perils of aging—who will save us?
      • Gaining the Long View on turning points: what’s “normal” and what can we expect next?
    • 3. Market Boom and Bust
    • 4. The Big Drivers
      • More Buyers
      • More people
      • More income
      • More investment incentive
      • Shortage of Supply
      • Delays in production
      • Land constraints
      • Ease of Financing
    • 5. Minority Dictatorship of New Construction Everyone else lives in existing housing 1% of households (growing segments) dictate type of new construction
    • 6. Shiller’s 120 Year View of House Prices
    • 7. Closer View of Prices in 1970 to 2020
    • 8. Case-Shiller Prices by Metro Area
    • 9. How Flexible is Demand?
    • 10. Demand = Consumption Rates X Number of People of Each Type
    • 11. Household Formation by Age & Decade
    • 12. Home Ownership by Age & Decade
    • 13. Home Ownership by Age & Decade
    • 14. Paradox of Ownership Trends and Price Age 25-34 1980s 1990s
    • 15. The Two Drivers: Aging and Immigration
    • 16. Demographic Growth Native-Born Turning Age 25 Plus Immigrant Arrivals Myers and Pitkin ‘09
    • 17.  
    • 18.  
    • 19. …… ?
    • 20. 56 million still kicking in 2030 Dowell Myers 2009
    • 21. Population Growth in the US (Age 25+) by Major Segment Each Decade Source: Statistical Abstract 2003, Tables No. 12 and HS-3. Myers ‘09
    • 22. Age Group Increase as Percent of US Population at End of Each Decade The Baby Boomers Surge Forward
    • 23. Percent of U.S. Population Newly Immigrated in Preceding 10 Years Homer Hoyt 1940 Predicted urban decline
    • 24.
      • California U.S.
      • 1980s -- 11%
      • 1990s 74% 21%
      • 2000s 73% 28%
      • 2010s 90% ?? 30%
      Foreign-Born Share of the Growth in Homeowners Dowell Myers 2009
    • 25. Soaring Immigrant Homeownership For Each Immigrant Wave Arriving Before 1970, 80, 90, 2000 United States Data Source: Dowell Myers & Cathy Liu, Urban Policy and Research , September 2005 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 70 80 90 00 All Native- born All Foreign- born 1960s Arrivals 1970s Arrivals 1980s Arrivals 1990s Arrivals
    • 26. Change in Homeownership For Successive Waves of Immigrants Arriving Before 1970, 1980, 1990, or 2000 NY 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 70 80 90 00 TX 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 70 80 90 00 Data Source: Dowell Myers & Cathy Liu, Urban Policy and Research , September 2005 IL 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 70 80 90 00 CA 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 70 80 90 00 FL 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 70 80 90 00 0.8
    • 27. Turning Points in Cities and Housing
    • 28. Episodes in the Urban Condition
      • 1. Urban Decline & Abandonment (1950-80)
      • 2. Gentrification, the Long Boom & the Affordability Crisis (1970-2008)
      • 3. Collapse of Apartment Construction (1990-2005)
      • Urban Revival & the Apartment Rebound (2006~2020)
      • 4. Baby Boomer Sell-Off & Ripple Effects …. (2015-2040)
      Source: Dowell Myers and John Pitkin (2009) Annals, AAPSS
    • 29. Apartment Trend and Outlook
    • 30. Century of Multifamily Construction Shares
    • 31. place holder Price series Share of Housing Construction in Apartments
    • 32. Age Profile of Tenants in Recently Built Apartments
    • 33. Baby Bust Hits Young Adult Age Growth at Ages 25-34 as a Percent of US Population
    • 34. Myers and Gearin 2001 based on NAHB data Expressed Preference for a Townhouse in the City
    • 35. The Baby Boomer Sell-Off
    • 36. Source: Myers (2007) Immigrants and Boomers , Figure 11.1 Buyers and Sellers per 100 Population Age Per 100 People of Each Age in California Buy Sell Average Annual Rates of Buying and Selling
    • 37. Seniors (65+) Per 100 Working Age +67% after 2010 Growing Weight of Seniors Compared to Working Age
    • 38. Annual Net Selling Rate at Age 65-69 Source: Dowell Myers and SungHo Ryu, “Aging Baby Boomers and the Generational Housing Bubble,” Journal of the American Planning Association (winter 2008) Myers and Ryu ‘08
    • 39. Will Supply Cut Back? Annual Home Sales in Millions
    • 40. Myers and Pitkin ‘08 Annual Growth in Homeowners by Age Group
    • 41. Myers’s Projection for California in 2020 Who’s Going to Buy Your House? Source: Immigrants and Boomers , Figure 11.3 Number of Buyers Less Sellers
        • Hispanic
        • Asian and Pacific Islander
        • Black
        • Non-Hispanic White
      Net buyers Net sellers
    • 42. Need for Bulking Up the Younger Generation 67% Heavier Senior Ratio of Home Sellers
    • 43. Solution: Bulk them up with education… Everyone a College Grad … and a Home Buyer
    • 44.
      • … 64% higher
      Compared to High School Grads, Latino College Grads Pay Higher House Prices…
    • 45. The Intergenerational Social Contract Investing in Future Workers & Home Buyers Children Educational Investments Seniors Rewarded Pensions Health Care Home Sales $$ $$ $$ Dowell Myers University of Southern California Replacement Supporters New Workers New Home Buyers New Taxpayers Mature Adults Make Maximum Financial Contributions $$ the cycle of roles
    • 46. Conclusions for the Future
    • 47.  
    • 48. What Conclusions for the Future?
      • Homebuying will slump without investment incentive, but a quick, deep decline gets back to normal faster.
      • Density rules: Apartments have both demographics and postponed buyers feeding their demand. Plus Baby Boomer retirees love those townhomes.
      • But Baby Boomers will bring us too many old folks. We need to prepare all of the young to help carry the load. Start cultivating future home buyers now.
      • And immigrants can help fill the gap.
    • 49. Thank You Dowell Myers <dowell@usc.edu> For more information search for “popdynamics”