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Steverink Infra day 2010 Berlin
Steverink Infra day 2010 Berlin
Steverink Infra day 2010 Berlin
Steverink Infra day 2010 Berlin
Steverink Infra day 2010 Berlin
Steverink Infra day 2010 Berlin
Steverink Infra day 2010 Berlin
Steverink Infra day 2010 Berlin
Steverink Infra day 2010 Berlin
Steverink Infra day 2010 Berlin
Steverink Infra day 2010 Berlin
Steverink Infra day 2010 Berlin
Steverink Infra day 2010 Berlin
Steverink Infra day 2010 Berlin
Steverink Infra day 2010 Berlin
Steverink Infra day 2010 Berlin
Steverink Infra day 2010 Berlin
Steverink Infra day 2010 Berlin
Steverink Infra day 2010 Berlin
Steverink Infra day 2010 Berlin
Steverink Infra day 2010 Berlin
Steverink Infra day 2010 Berlin
Steverink Infra day 2010 Berlin
Steverink Infra day 2010 Berlin
Steverink Infra day 2010 Berlin
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Steverink Infra day 2010 Berlin

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Presentation at the Infraday conference in Berlin 2010. Briefly wraps up the research on both Dutch and German airline ticket taxation

Presentation at the Infraday conference in Berlin 2010. Briefly wraps up the research on both Dutch and German airline ticket taxation

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  • Start with introducing:Welcome for comingMyselfThe reason we are here is to present the result of the research to obtain the degree of master of scienceAsk the audience first if they knew about the taxSecond if they know about this german airport weeze
  • Introduce the three parts
  • Lower curve: Eindhoven users starting to choose for weeze, rapid increase when implemented and rapid decrease when abolished. However, awareness decreases the speed of decline. Shows the difference in speed between mechanisms of learning (direct experience and wom)
  • Dutch PeoplechoosingWeezefrom the NetherlandsGermanPeoplechoosing Eindhoven fromGermany3 cases, No tax, justdutch, Dutch and afterGerman
  • Fraction of Dutch Weeze Leisure travelersreturning to Eindhoven in 3 casesJust dutchtaxDutch and afterGermandtaxDutch and afterGermand and thenreimplementation of Dutch tax in 2012
  • Fraction of Dutch choosing Charleroi in three casesJust Dutch taxDutch and GermantaxDutch and German and reimplementation Dutch tax
  • Transcript

    • 1. October 8, 2010
      ModellingConsumerBehaviour in AirportSelection
      A System Dynamics perspective on the Dutch (and German) ticket tax
      Bart Steverink – bart@bsoms.com
      INFRAday 2010, Berlin
      The Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis (KiM)
      Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management
    • 2. October 8, 2010
      Contents
      1
      Introduction & ProblemDescription
      Research Questions & Methodology
      ModellingMethod
      Overview of the Model
      Results
      Conclusions
      Further Research
      2
      3
      2
    • 3. October 8, 2010
      3
      12 3
    • 4. October 8, 2010
      Introduction
      4
      • Ticket tax was introduced on the 1st of July 2008
      • 5. Abolished after 1 year
      • 6. The Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis (KiM) initiated an ex-post analysis in January 2010
      • 7. Specific interest in behavioural aspects
    • October 8, 2010
      Influence of boundedrationality
      Incomplete information
      Habitualbehaviour
      Current analyses assume full rationality (orimplicitelyincorporateboundedrationality)
      We don’tknowhow and howstrongly the tax has affectedconsumerchoice
      ProblemDescription
      5
    • 8. October 8, 2010
      Research Questions
      Whichmethod is suitable to model consumerbehaviour and airportcompetition?
      Which factors and mechanismsinfluenced the redistribution of passengers as a result of the ticket tax?
      Ifthere is a structuralchange, whatcanbedone to influencethischange?
      6
      Method
      Mechanism
      Policy
    • 9. October 8, 2010
      Methodology
      Literature study/interviews
      How decisions are made?
      What determines airport quality?
      How do people obtain information?
      Computer Simulation Model
      Reduce complexity
      How do the different concepts from literature interact over time?
      How can the choice be influenced?
      7
    • 10. October 8, 2010
      8
      1 2 3
    • 11. October 8, 2010
      Modelling MethodComparison of Modelling Methods
    • 12. October 8, 2010
      Modelling MethodSystem Dynamics
      System dynamics (SD) is selected because:
      Matches the requirements for solving the problem
      Familiarity with the method
      Vensim DSS software used
      Data collected from:
      • Interviews
      • 13. Previous studies
      • 14. Airport statistics
      • 15. KiM Airport Choice Survey 2010
      10
    • 16. October 8, 2010
      Overview of the ModelSelection of airports
      3 Airports selected for case study:
      Eindhoven
      Weeze
      (Brussels South) Charleroi
      Because:
      Overlapping catchment areas
      Very similar type of services
      “Footloose” character of low-cost carriers
      Target market relatively price sensitive
      11
    • 17. October 8, 2010
      Overview of the ModelTotal system (simplified)
      12
      Demand
      Airlines
      Consumers
      Utility perception
      Price
      Optimal use of fleet
      Information transfer
      Awareness
      # of flights
      Supply
    • 18. October 8, 2010
      Overview of the ModelConsumers
      3 pieces of information required to make a decision:
      Preferences
      Alternatives (airports)
      Attributes of alternatives:
      Price airline ticket
      Number of flights
      Access time
      Learning by using, talking and marketing
      Forgetting as a result of lack of exposure
      13
    • 19. October 8, 2010
      Overview of the ModelAirlines
      Optimize fleet utilization by:
      Adding flights in case of high demand
      Reducing flights when demand is low
      Adjusting price according to demand
      14
    • 20. October 8, 2010
      15
      1 2 3
    • 21. October 8, 2010
      ResultsComparison with Empirical data
      Growth Eindhoven compared to same month last year
      80
      70
      60
      50
      40
      30
      20
      10
      0
      -10
      -20
      Tax
      %
      real
      model
      16
    • 22. October 8, 2010
      ResultsEffect of marketing
      17
      Awareness of Dutch people of Weeze
      % of people aware
      Boost
      Normal
    • 23. October 8, 2010
      ResultsInfluence of Awareness
      18
      Dutch people going to Weeze
      % of Dutch
      Tax
      No tax
    • 24. October 8, 2010
      Conclusions
      SD is a suitable method but has limitations
      Transfer of information by marketing, talking to friends and neighbours and by direct experience.
      A structural effect of the tax is seen if:
      The supply can grow fast enough
      Enough attention is generated
      Policies that influence information availability are effective
      19
      Method
      Mechanism
      Policy
    • 25. October 8, 2010
      Further ResearchEffects of the German ticket tax
      Somepreliminaryconclusionsbasedon the model:
      Dutch passengerswill return to Dutch airports, reactionfromGermanpassengers low, due to low awareness and threshold of flightsupply
      Re-implementation of Dutch taxreducesnumber of Dutch passengersreturning to NL and increasestraffic at Belgianairports
      Opportunitiesfornear border airportslikeMaastricht-Aachen and (maybe) Twente
      20
    • 26. Further ResearchEffects of the German ticket tax
      October 8, 2010
      21
      Percentage of population (NL and D) choosingairport
      Weeze (from NL)
      Eindhoven (from D)
    • 27. Further ResearchEffects of the German ticket tax
      October 8, 2010
      22
      Percentage of Dutch leisurepassengersreturning to EHN
      NL and GermanTax
      Re-impl. Dutch Tax
    • 28. Further ResearchEffects of the German ticket tax
      October 8, 2010
      23
      Percentage of Dutch choosing Charleroi
      Re-impl. Dutch Tax
      NL and GermanTax
    • 29. October 8, 2010
      ¿¿Questions??
      24
      For a digital copy of the thesis work:
      • Sendan email to:
      bart@bsoms.com
      • Or, visit:
      www.bsoms.com
    • 30. October 8, 2010
      Further Research
      Twodirectionsforfurther research:
      Simplifystructure and expandboundaries
      More numericalprecision
      25

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