SURA Meeting Washington

Climate Change: Challenges and Opportunities for R&E networks Bill St. Arnaud CANARIE Inc – www.canarie.ca [email_address] Unless otherwise noted all material in this slide deck may be reproduced, modified or distributed without prior permission of the author

Climate Forecasts MIT

MIT report predicts median temperature forecast of 5.2C

11C increase in Northern Canada

http://globalchange.mit.edu/pubs/abstract.php?publication_id=990

Last Ice age average global temperature was 5-6C cooler than today

Most of Canada was under 2-3 km ice

With BAU we are talking about 5-6C change in temperature in the opposite direction in less than 80 Years

2008 second warmest year

Climate Change is not reversible

Climate Change is not like acid rain or ozone destruction where environment will quickly return to normal once source of pollution is removed

GHG emissions will stay in the atmosphere for thousands of years and continue to accumulate

Planet will continue to warm up even if we drastically reduce emissions

All we hope to achieve is to slow down the rapid rate of climate change Weaver et al., GRL (2007)

The Planet is Already Committed to a Dangerous Level of Warming V. Ramanathan and Y. Feng, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD September 23, 2008 www.pnas.orgcgidoi10.1073pnas.0803838105 Source: Larry Smarr CAL-It2 Temperature Threshold Range that Initiates the Climate-Tipping Additional Warming over 1750 Level 90% of the Additional 1.6 Degree Warming Will Occur in the 21 st Century

Climate tipping points

USGS Abrupt Climate Change report finds that future climate shifts have been underestimated and warns of debilitating abrupt shift in climate that would be devastating.

http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap3-4/final-report/default.htm

http://climateprogress.org/2008/11/24/what-are-the-near-term-climate-pearl-harbors/

Tipping elements in the Earth's climate -National Academies of Science

http://www.pnas.org/content/105/6/1786.abstract?maxtoshow=&HITS=10&hits=10&RESULTFORMAT=&fulltext=tipping+elements+lenton&searchid=1&FIRSTINDEX=0&resourcetype=HWCIT

“ Society may be lulled into a false sense of security by smooth projections of global change. Our synthesis of present knowledge suggests that a variety of tipping elements could reach their critical point within this century under anthropogenic climate change. “

80/50 rule – 80% reduction in CO2 by 2050

(Commitment made by G8 countries)

j 15 - 20 tons/person 1 ton/person 2008 2050 ? 2100 2 tons/person Source: Stern 2008 Our Challenge

CO2 emissions from Information, Computer, Telecommunications (ICT)

It is estimated that the ICT industry alone produces CO2 emissions that is equivalent to the carbon output of the entire aviation industry 2-3%

ICT emissions growth fastest of any sector in society, doubling about every 4 – 6 years

ICT represent 8-9.4% of total US electricity consumption, and 8% of global electricity consumption

Projected to grow to as much as 20% of all electrical consumption in the US

http://uclue.com/index.php?xq=724

Future Broadband- Internet alone is expected to consume 5% of all electricity

http://www.ee.unimelb.edu.au/people/rst/talks/files/Tucker_Green_Plenary.pdf

*An Inefficient Tuth: http://www.globalactionplan.org.uk/event_detail.aspx?eid=2696e0e0-28fe-4121-bd36-3670c02eda49

IT biggest power draw Heating, Cooling and Ventilation 40-50% Lighting 11% IT Equipment 30-40% Other 6% Sources: BOMA 2006, EIA 2006, AIA 2006 Energy Consumption Typical Building Energy Consumption World Wide Transportation 25% Manufacturing 25% Buildings 50%

Growth Projections Data Centers

Half of ICT consumption is data centers

50% of today’s Data Centers and major science facilities in the US will have insufficient power and cooling;*

By 2010, half of all Data Centers will have to relocate or outsource applications to another facility.*

During the next 5 years, 90% of all companies will experience some kind of power disruption. In that same period one in four companies will experience a significant business disruption*

Data centers will consume 12% of electricity in the US by 2020 (TV Telecom)

Source: Gartner; Meeting the DC power and cooling challenge

Waxman-Markey H.R. 2454 passes the House in July 2009

“ Average” increase in electricity costs for businesses and institutions will be 60% with cap and trade

Organizations that use electricity from coal fired power plants will see significantly higher costs (by as much as 3 times current prices)

30% of electricity will come from non carbon sources

Utilities will be required to spend 16% revenues on energy reduction strategies

If you emit above your “cap” you are required to purchase offsets at $11-$15 per ton in 2012 and roughly double in price by 2025.

Kerry-Boxer Clean Energy Jobs & American Power Act

More aggressive CO2 reduction targets then Waxman-Markey (20% by 2020 over 2005, 80% by 2050).

“ EPA has proposed a rule that requires mandatory reporting of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from larges sources in the United States…. that emit 25,000 metric tons or more”

Federal Climate Legislation

Waxman Markey reductions

State GHG Targets 2009 SOURCE: Pew Center on Global Climate Change, Climate101-State Actions, January 2009 42% of States Have Existing GHG Reduction Targets

Carbon Footprint by state

American College & University President’s Climate Commitment

“ Signatories agree to…

Create institutional structures

Select & implement tangible actions to reduce greenhouse gases

Complete a comprehensive greenhouse gas inventory

Develop a climate-neutral action plan

Make information publicly available”

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Green IT MoU

Initial Signatories: UCSD, UBC, PROMPT

To share best practices in reducing GHG emissions and baseline emission data for cyber-infrastructure and networks as per ISO 14064,

To explore carbon reduction strategies by new network and distributed computing architectures such as PROMPT G-NGI, OptiPuter and CineGrid.

To work with R&E network to explore relocation of resources to renewable energy sites, virtualization, etc.

To explore the potential for a “virtual” carbon trading systems

To explore the creation of a multi-sector pilot of a generalized ICT carbon trading system including stakeholders from government, industry, and universities.

To collaborate with each other and with government agencies and departments and other organizations

GHG Regulation in British Columbia

Bill 44-2007 was introduced in 2007 and enacted into law in 2008. The law is known as the Greenhouse Gas Reductions Target Act.

The Act establishes greenhouse gas emission target levels for the Province.

2020 BC GHG will be 33% less than 2007.

2050 BC GHG will be 80% less than 2007.

Bill mandates that by 2010 each public sector organization must be carbon neutral.

If a public sector organization can not achieve carbon neutrality then they are required to purchase offsets at $24/ton

SOURCE: “Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report 2007”, Ministry of Environment, Victoria, British Columbia, July 2009 Source: Jerry Sheehan UCSD

The Cost of Regulation: The University of British Columbia SOURCE: UBC Sustainability Office, August 2009 SOURCE: http://climateaction.ubc.ca/category/emission-sources SOURCE : UBC Climate Action Plan, GHG 2006 Inventory Source: Jerry Sheehan UCSD UBC Greenhouse Gas Liability 2010-2012 2010 2011 2012 Carbon Offset $1,602,750 $1,602,750 $1,602,750 Carbon Tax $1,179,940 $1,474,925 $1,769,910 Total $2,782,690 $3,077,675 $3,372,660

The Falsehood of Energy Efficiency

Most current approaches to reduce carbon footprint are focused on increased energy efficiency of equipment and processes

But growth in ICT deployment of equipment and services is outstripping any gains made in efficiency

Which is likely to accelerate as ICT is used to support abatement in other fields such as smart homes, smart buildings, smart grids etc

Also greater efficiency can paradoxically increase energy consumption by reducing overall cost service and therefore stimulates demand

Khazzoom-Brookes postulate (aka Jevons paradox aka rebound effect)

In last Energy crisis in 1973 Congress passed first energy efficiency laws (CAFÉ) which mandate minimum mileage for cars, home insulation and appliances

Net effect was to reduce cost of driving car, heating or cooling home, and electricity required for appliances

Consumer response was to drive further, buy bigger homes and appliances

Power Consumption of IP network Source: Rod Tucker

Challenge of efficiency Source: Rod Tucker

Purchasing green power locally is expensive with significant transmission line losses

Demand for green power within cities expected to grow dramatically

ICT facilities DON’T NEED TO BE LOCATED IN CITIES

- Cooling also a major problem in cities

But most renewable energy sites are very remote and impractical to connect to electrical grid.

Can be easily reached by an optical network

Provide independence from electrical utility and high costs in wheeling power

Savings in transmission line losses (up to 15%) alone, plus carbon offsets can pay for moving ICT facilities to renewable energy site

ICT is only industry ideally suited to relocate to renewable energy sites

Also ideal for business continuity in event of climate catastrophe

Building a zero carbon ICT infrastructure

MIT to build zero carbon data center in Holyoke MA

The data center will be managed and funded by the four main partners in the facility: the Massachusetts Institute of Technology , Cisco Systems , the University of Massachusetts and EMC .

It will be a high-performance computing environment that will help expand the research and development capabilities of the companies and schools in Holyoke

http://www.greenercomputing.com/news/2009/06/11/cisco-emc-team-mit-launch-100m-green-data-center

Many examples already Hydro-electric powered data centers Data Islandia Digital Data Archive ASIO solar powered data centers Wind powered data centers Ecotricity in UK builds windmills at data center locations with no capital cost to user

The Concept

Use cyber infrastructure to combat global warming by reducing computing infrastructure’s carbon footprint

Find efficient ways to share computing facilities that are close to sources of green power by utilizing BCNET’s advanced network infrastructure within the Province

Make it possible for BC’s Universities to reduce their carbon footprint by relocating their existing ICT infrastructure to “greener facilities”

Build a zero carbon data centre and use the BCNET/CANARIE ROADM network to connect users to it

British Columbia BCnet Leadership

Optical Network as Enabler SOURCE: Eric Bernier, CTO CANARIE Bandwidth when required … where required 100GBPS Ready

Zero Carbon Data Center source: Dan Gillard BCnet 04/09 BC’s Green Data Centre MUST be in Proximity to a Clean Source of Power

Grand Challenge – Building robust ICT services using renewable energy only

30% of electrical power will come from renewable sources

How do you provide mission critical ICT services when energy source is unreliable?

Ebbing wind or setting sun

Back up diesel and batteries are not an option because they are not zero carbon and power outages can last for days or weeks

Need new network architectures and business models to ensure reliable service delivery by quickly moving compute jobs and data sets around the world to sites that have available power

Will require high bandwidth networks and routing architectures to quickly move jobs and data sets from site to site

Impact on networks

Building zero carbon data centers in remote locations creates impact on network in terms of large data volumes being carried greater distances

More fossil based energy will be consumed in transmission facilities (versus reduction at data centers)

Optical networks will have modest increase in power consumption especially with new 100G and 1000G waves

Electronic equipment such as routers and aggregators will have much larger impact

Future Broadband- Internet alone is expected to consume 5% of all electricity

http://www.ee.unimelb.edu.au/people/rst/talks/files/Tucker_Green_Plenary.pdf

CANARIE Green-IT Pilot

$3m allocation for Green cyber-infrastructure-IT pilot testbed

Two objectives:

Technical viability and usability for relocating computers to zero carbon data centers and follow the sun/follow the wind network

Business case viability of offering carbon offsets (and or equivalent in services) to IT departments and university researchers who reduce their carbon footprint by relocating computers and instrumentation to zero carbon data centers

International partnership with possible zero carbon nodes using virtual router/computers in Spain, Ireland, California, Australia, British Columbia, Ottawa, Quebec and Nova Scotia

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Possible research areas

Dynamic all optical networks with solar or wind powered optical repeaters

Wireless mesh ad-hoc networks with mini-solar panels at nodes

New Internet architectures with servers, computers and storage collocated at remote renewable energy sites such as hydro dams, windmill farms, etc

New routing and resiliency architectures for wired and wireless networks for massively disruptive topology changes due to setting sun or waning winds that power routers and servers

New grid and data storage architectures with distributed replication and virtual machines (VM turntables, Hadoop) for “follow the sun” and “follow the wind” grids

New stats and measurement analysis of bits per carbon (bpc) utilization, optimized “carbon” routing tables, etc

GENI Topology optimized by source destination Source: Peter Freeman NSF Wind Power Substrate Router Solar Power Wireless Base Station Sensor Network Thin Client Edge Site Mobile Wireless Network

GENI with router nodes at renewable energy sites Sensor Network Thin Client Edge Site Source: Peter Freeman NSF Wind Power Substrate Router Solar Power Wireless Base Station Topology optimized by availability of energy Mobile Wireless Network

Emerging “Follow the Sun” Technologies

The ability to migrate entire virtual machines (routers and computers) to alternate data centres exists.

Over HS networks the latency is tiny and transfer is invisible to the user.

Happens instantly without user knowledge, action or intervention

Nortel’s research labs developed and conceived the “Virtual Machine Turntable in 2006 and through collaboration with R&E networks in the US, Canada, Netherlands, and South Korea proved viability.

The SC06 VMT Demonstrator Computation at the Right Place & Time! We migrate live Virtual Machines, unbeknownst to applications and clients, for data affinity, business continuity / disaster recovery, load balancing, or power management DataCenter @Tampa SC|2006 Nortel’s Sensor Services Platform Korea KREOnet Netherlight DRAC Controlled Lightpaths Internal/External Sensor Webs Amsterdam

Wind powered Cell phone tower

Over 100,000 cell phone towers to be powered by renewable energy by 2012

Vertical axis turbines and solar

Ericsson (Montreal) world leader in these developments

Economic benefits of follow the wind/sun architectures

Cost- and Energy-Aware Load Distribution Across Data Centers

http://www.cs.rutgers.edu/~ricardob/papers/hotpower09.pdf

Green data centers can decrease brown energy consumption by 35% by leveraging the green data centers at only a 3% cost increase

Cutting the Electric Bill for Internet-Scale Systems

Companies can shift computing power to a data center in a location where it’s an off-peak time of the day and energy prices are low

Cassatt a product that dynamically shifts loads to find the cheapest energy prices

45% maximum savings in energy costs

http://ccr.sigcomm.org/online/files/p123.pdf

http://earth2tech.com/2009/08/19/how-data-centers-can-follow-energy-prices-to-save-millions/

Computing for the future of the planet

http://www.cl.cam.ac.uk/research/dtg/~ah12/

http://earth2tech.com/2008/07/25/data-centers-will-follow-the-sun-and-chase-the-wind

Prompt’s Green ICT Vision

A distributed Canadian Initiative devoted to creation and commercialization of ICT technologies that reduce GHG emissions.

i.e. Shout for support for Green ICT in Canada!

Involve universities, industries, governments and consumers in Green ICT activities:

Inform stakeholders;

Stimulate R&D;

Deploy infrastructure;

Commercialize.

University R&D: PISA Source: GENI

Pervasive Infrastructures, Services and Applications

A Network of Centres of Excellence proposal

To address challenges of Networked Society of 2020

Connected environments and smart infrastructure

Architecture & design of virtualized networks;

Green cloud computing;

Convergence design Lab testbed

Involves 50 professors, headed by Dr Alberto Leon-Garcia, U. of Toronto

Source: Prof. Mihaela Ulieru, U. of New Brunswick, PISA

University R&D: NetVirt

NetVirt 200k$ Prompt Major Project in Quebec:

Architecture & design of virtualized networks

Flexible link sharing in virtualized networks;

Pushing the isolation paradigm at the hardware level for NGI virtual routers;

UQAM, Polytechnique, Ericsson, Inocybe

Source: GENI

Business plan for a Canada-California Consortium for a Zero carbon Internet;

Regroup researchers in computer science, electrical & computer engineering, sociology, business and economics;

Create an R&D environment and identify funding to support the consortium in:

University R&D: CCSIP

University-based “living ICT laboratories” test beds that demonstrate how ICT can mitigate GHG;

Events to raise the awareness of the benefits of the application of ICT for carbon minimization; and

Implement an international repository for data and best practices related to ICT’s carbon footprint and applications to reduce GHG.

What are carbon offsets?

Many claims of energy savings can only be proven through rigorous process of carbon offsets (ISO 14064)

Companies or individuals buy carbon offsets from projects that remove or reduce carbon

Planting trees, building hydro dams, installing energy efficient processes, etc

Two types of markets

Regulated markets – Alberta, BC , Europe and New England

Voluntary markets – Air Canada, Chicago, etc

Carbon buying and selling is done through registries or exchanges

Pacific Carbon Trust, Montreal Carbon exchange, REGI

In regulated markets all big emitters such as power plants, steel mills, universities , etc must purchase permits based on cap and trade

The Carbon Economy

$500 billion - Value of low-carbon energy markets by 2050

$100 billion - Demand for projects generating GHG missions credits by 2030

Global carbon market expected to grow 58% this year to $92 billion

Carbon market could be worth billions for telecoms & IT

US market estimated at $700 billion

http://telephonyonline.com/global/news/carbon-trade-arnaud-0626/

Obama’s cap and trade (Waxman-Markey) bill will force emitters to spend $1.25 on carbon offsets for every $1.00 on emission permits at $ 1billion per year

Source: ClimateCheck 20

Do your carbon inventory NOW!!

You can not earn credits until you do an inventory and calculate baseline emissions

www.ghginstitute.org provides eTraining

Next year carbon cap price will be $100 per ton in Europe

At European cap price the cost of GHG emission could be as much $10 - $50 million per year for university in the next decade

A lot depends on details of Obama’s cap and trade

Conversely university could earn $10 - $50 million per year if a university is zero carbon

No revenue potential if university is carbon neutral

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Policy approaches to reducing CO2

Carbon taxes

Politically difficult to sell

Cap and trade

Useful for big emitters like power companies

Addresses only supply side of CO2

Carbon Neutrality imposed by law

Growing in popularity especially as protests over gas tax escalates

But there may be an additional approach….

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Carbon Rewards rather carbon taxes – “gCommerce”

Although carbon taxes are revenue neutral, they payee rarely sees any direct benefit

No incentive other than higher cost to reduce footprint

Rather than penalize consumers and businesses for carbon emissions, can we reward them for reducing their carbon emissions?

Carbon rewards can be “virtual” products delivered over broadband networks such movies, books, education, health services, collarboartive education and research technologies etc

Carbon reward can also be free ICT services (with low carbon footprint) such as Internet, cellphone, fiber to the home, etc

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Virtualization and De-materialization Source: European Commission Joint Research Centre, “The Future Impact of ICTs on Environmental Sustainability”, August 2004 Direct replacement of physical goods – 10% - 20% impact

Virtualization is key

Movies and music delivered over Internet

Virtual applications

Google docs, ESERI

In many homes electronic devices consume more power than traditional appliances

http://www.iea.org/journalists/headlines.asp

MIT’s Sixth sense

Digital vs Traditional appliances

Case Western pilot with Kindle DX

One pound of printer paper generates 4 pounds of CO2

One pound of newspaper produces 3 pounds of CO2

One pound of textbooks produces 5 pounds of CO2

Babcock school of Management textbooks for 160 students alone produces 45 Tons CO2

http://www.stewartmarion.com/carbon-footprint/html/carbon-footprint-stuff.html

Other sectors (40%) (e.g. manufacturing, coal mining, export transport) Emissions under direct consumer control (35%) Consumer influenced sectors (25%) (e.g. retail, food and drink, wholesale, agriculture, public sector) Heating Private cars Electricity Other transport Consumers control or influence 60 per cent of emissions http://www.cbi.org.uk/pdf/climatereport2007full.pdf 30

Free Wifi on Buses

There’s a school bus service called The Green Bus in Birmingham, UK which operates double-decker, low-carbon emissions buses that carry over 1400 kids to school every day (saving over 2000 car journeys).

In addition to encouraging kids to play peer-to-peer games, the access points allow the bus company to monitor where the buses are in the city in real time. Parents as well as staff can follow the progress of any bus via Google maps.