ICT and Climate Change A Foundation for Innovation in Canada Bill St. Arnaud CANARIE Inc – www.canarie.ca [email_address] Unless otherwise noted all material in this slide deck may be reproduced, modified or distributed without prior permission of the author

Climate Forecasts MIT MIT report predicts median temperature forecast of 5.2C 11C increase in Northern Canada http://globalchange.mit.edu/pubs/abstract.php?publication_id=990 Last Ice age average global temperature was 5-6C cooler than today Most of Canada was under 2-3 km ice With BAU we are talking about 5-6C change in temperature in the opposite direction in less than 80 Years

MIT report predicts median temperature forecast of 5.2C

11C increase in Northern Canada

http://globalchange.mit.edu/pubs/abstract.php?publication_id=990

Last Ice age average global temperature was 5-6C cooler than today

Most of Canada was under 2-3 km ice

With BAU we are talking about 5-6C change in temperature in the opposite direction in less than 80 Years

2008 second warmest year

Climate Change is not reversible Climate Change is not like acid rain or ozone destruction where environment will quickly return to normal once source of pollution is removed GHG emissions will stay in the atmosphere for thousands of years and continue to accumulate Planet will continue to warm up even if we drastically reduce emissions All we hope to achieve is to slow down the rapid rate of climate change Weaver et al., GRL (2007)

Climate Change is not like acid rain or ozone destruction where environment will quickly return to normal once source of pollution is removed

GHG emissions will stay in the atmosphere for thousands of years and continue to accumulate

Planet will continue to warm up even if we drastically reduce emissions

80/50 rule – 80% reduction in CO2 by 2050 (Commitment made by G8 countries) j 15 - 20 tons/person 1 ton/person 2008 2050 ? 2100 2 tons/person Source: Stern 2008 Our Challenge

80/50 rule – 80% reduction in CO2 by 2050

(Commitment made by G8 countries)

CO2 emissions from Information, Computer, Telecommunications (ICT) It is estimated that the ICT industry alone produces CO2 emissions that is equivalent to the carbon output of the entire aviation industry 2-3% ICT emissions growth fastest of any sector in society, doubling about every 4 – 6 years ICT represent 8-9.4% of total US electricity consumption, and 8% of global electricity consumption Projected to grow to as much as 20% of all electrical consumption in the US http://uclue.com/index.php?xq=724 Future Broadband- Internet alone is expected to consume 5% of all electricity http://www.ee.unimelb.edu.au/people/rst/talks/files/Tucker_Green_Plenary.pdf *An Inefficient Tuth: http://www.globalactionplan.org.uk/event_detail.aspx?eid=2696e0e0-28fe-4121-bd36-3670c02eda49

It is estimated that the ICT industry alone produces CO2 emissions that is equivalent to the carbon output of the entire aviation industry 2-3%

ICT emissions growth fastest of any sector in society, doubling about every 4 – 6 years

ICT represent 8-9.4% of total US electricity consumption, and 8% of global electricity consumption

Projected to grow to as much as 20% of all electrical consumption in the US

http://uclue.com/index.php?xq=724

Future Broadband- Internet alone is expected to consume 5% of all electricity

http://www.ee.unimelb.edu.au/people/rst/talks/files/Tucker_Green_Plenary.pdf

IT biggest power draw Heating, Cooling and Ventilation 40-50% Lighting 11% IT Equipment 30-40% Other 6% Sources: BOMA 2006, EIA 2006, AIA 2006 Energy Consumption Typical Building Energy Consumption World Wide Transportation 25% Manufacturing 25% Buildings 50%

Growth Projections Data Centers Half of ICT consumption is data centers 50% of today’s Data Centers and major science facilities in the US will have insufficient power and cooling;* By 2010, half of all Data Centers will have to relocate or outsource applications to another facility.* During the next 5 years, 90% of all companies will experience some kind of power disruption. In that same period one in four companies will experience a significant business disruption* Data centers will consume 12% of electricity in the US by 2020 (TV Telecom) Source: Gartner; Meeting the DC power and cooling challenge

Half of ICT consumption is data centers

50% of today’s Data Centers and major science facilities in the US will have insufficient power and cooling;*

By 2010, half of all Data Centers will have to relocate or outsource applications to another facility.*

During the next 5 years, 90% of all companies will experience some kind of power disruption. In that same period one in four companies will experience a significant business disruption*

Data centers will consume 12% of electricity in the US by 2020 (TV Telecom)

Impact of Cap and Trade on Business and Telecom Company Servers Electricity Cost http://ccr.sigcomm.org/online/files/p123.pdf Microsoft >200K >6×105 MWh >$36M Google >500K >6.3×105 MWh >$38M MIT campus 2.7×105MWh $62M “ Average” increase in electricity costs for businesses and institutions will be 60% with cap and trade Organizations that use electricity from coal fired power plants will see significantly higher costs (by as much as 3 times current prices) 30% of electricity will come from renewable sources Greater degree of unreliability and uncertainty in power

Company Servers Electricity Cost

http://ccr.sigcomm.org/online/files/p123.pdf

Microsoft >200K >6×105 MWh >$36M

Google >500K >6.3×105 MWh >$38M

MIT campus 2.7×105MWh $62M

“ Average” increase in electricity costs for businesses and institutions will be 60% with cap and trade

Organizations that use electricity from coal fired power plants will see significantly higher costs (by as much as 3 times current prices)

30% of electricity will come from renewable sources

Greater degree of unreliability and uncertainty in power

Carbon Footprint by state

GHG Regulation in British Columbia Bill 44-2007 was introduced in 2007 and enacted into law in 2008. The law is known as the Greenhouse Gas Reductions Target Act. The Act establishes greenhouse gas emission target levels for the Province. 2020 BC GHG will be 33% less than 2007. 2050 BC GHG will be 80% less than 2007. Bill mandates that by 2010 each public sector organization must be carbon neutral. If a public sector organization can not achieve carbon neutrality then they are required to purchase offsets at $24/ton SOURCE: “Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report 2007”, Ministry of Environment, Victoria, British Columbia, July 2009 Source: Jerry Sheehan UCSD

Bill 44-2007 was introduced in 2007 and enacted into law in 2008. The law is known as the Greenhouse Gas Reductions Target Act.

The Act establishes greenhouse gas emission target levels for the Province.

2020 BC GHG will be 33% less than 2007.

2050 BC GHG will be 80% less than 2007.

Bill mandates that by 2010 each public sector organization must be carbon neutral.

If a public sector organization can not achieve carbon neutrality then they are required to purchase offsets at $24/ton

The Cost of Regulation: The University of British Columbia SOURCE: UBC Sustainability Office, August 2009 SOURCE: http://climateaction.ubc.ca/category/emission-sources SOURCE : UBC Climate Action Plan, GHG 2006 Inventory Source: Jerry Sheehan UCSD UBC Greenhouse Gas Liability 2010-2012 2010 2011 2012 Carbon Offset $1,602,750 $1,602,750 $1,602,750 Carbon Tax $1,179,940 $1,474,925 $1,769,910 Total $2,782,690 $3,077,675 $3,372,660

Purchasing green power locally is expensive with significant transmission line losses Demand for green power within cities expected to grow dramatically ICT facilities DON’T NEED TO BE LOCATED IN CITIES - Cooling also a major problem in cities But most renewable energy sites are very remote and impractical to connect to electrical grid. Can be easily reached by an optical network Provide independence from electrical utility and high costs in wheeling power Savings in transmission line losses (up to 15%) alone, plus carbon offsets can pay for moving ICT facilities to renewable energy site ICT is only industry ideally suited to relocate to renewable energy sites Also ideal for business continuity in event of climate catastrophe Innovation Opportunity – Building a zero carbon ICT infrastructure

Purchasing green power locally is expensive with significant transmission line losses

Demand for green power within cities expected to grow dramatically

ICT facilities DON’T NEED TO BE LOCATED IN CITIES

- Cooling also a major problem in cities

But most renewable energy sites are very remote and impractical to connect to electrical grid.

Can be easily reached by an optical network

Provide independence from electrical utility and high costs in wheeling power

Savings in transmission line losses (up to 15%) alone, plus carbon offsets can pay for moving ICT facilities to renewable energy site

ICT is only industry ideally suited to relocate to renewable energy sites

Also ideal for business continuity in event of climate catastrophe

Many examples already Hydro-electric powered data centers Data Islandia Digital Data Archive ASIO solar powered data centers Wind powered data centers Ecotricity in UK builds windmills at data center locations with no capital cost to user

Research Challenge – Building robust ICT services using renewable energy only 30% of electrical power will come from renewable sources How do you provide mission critical ICT services when energy source is unreliable? Ebbing wind or setting sun Back up diesel and batteries are not an option because they are not zero carbon and power outages can last for days or weeks Need new network architectures and business models to ensure reliable service delivery by quickly moving compute jobs and data sets around the world to sites that have available power Will require high bandwidth networks and routing architectures to quickly move jobs and data sets from site to site

30% of electrical power will come from renewable sources

How do you provide mission critical ICT services when energy source is unreliable?

Ebbing wind or setting sun

Back up diesel and batteries are not an option because they are not zero carbon and power outages can last for days or weeks

Need new network architectures and business models to ensure reliable service delivery by quickly moving compute jobs and data sets around the world to sites that have available power

Will require high bandwidth networks and routing architectures to quickly move jobs and data sets from site to site

Economic benefits of follow the wind/sun architectures Cost- and Energy-Aware Load Distribution Across Data Centers http://www.cs.rutgers.edu/~ricardob/papers/hotpower09.pdf Green data centers can decrease brown energy consumption by 35% by leveraging the green data centers at only a 3% cost increase Cutting the Electric Bill for Internet-Scale Systems Companies can shift computing power to a data center in a location where it’s an off-peak time of the day and energy prices are low Cassatt a product that dynamically shifts loads to find the cheapest energy prices 45% maximum savings in energy costs http://ccr.sigcomm.org/online/files/p123.pdf http://earth2tech.com/2009/08/19/how-data-centers-can-follow-energy-prices-to-save-millions/ Computing for the future of the planet http://www.cl.cam.ac.uk/research/dtg/~ah12/ http://earth2tech.com/2008/07/25/data-centers-will-follow-the-sun-and-chase-the-wind

Cost- and Energy-Aware Load Distribution Across Data Centers

http://www.cs.rutgers.edu/~ricardob/papers/hotpower09.pdf

Green data centers can decrease brown energy consumption by 35% by leveraging the green data centers at only a 3% cost increase

Cutting the Electric Bill for Internet-Scale Systems

Companies can shift computing power to a data center in a location where it’s an off-peak time of the day and energy prices are low

Cassatt a product that dynamically shifts loads to find the cheapest energy prices

45% maximum savings in energy costs

http://ccr.sigcomm.org/online/files/p123.pdf

http://earth2tech.com/2009/08/19/how-data-centers-can-follow-energy-prices-to-save-millions/

Computing for the future of the planet

http://www.cl.cam.ac.uk/research/dtg/~ah12/

http://earth2tech.com/2008/07/25/data-centers-will-follow-the-sun-and-chase-the-wind

CANARIE Green-IT Pilot $3m allocation for Green cyber-infrastructure-IT pilot testbed Two objectives: Technical viability and usability for relocating computers to zero carbon data centers and follow the sun/follow the wind network Business case viability of offering carbon offsets (and or equivalent in services) to IT departments and university researchers who reduce their carbon footprint by relocating computers and instrumentation to zero carbon data centers International partnership with possible zero carbon nodes using virtual router/computers in Spain, Ireland, California, Australia, British Columbia, Ottawa, Quebec and Nova Scotia

$3m allocation for Green cyber-infrastructure-IT pilot testbed

Two objectives:

Technical viability and usability for relocating computers to zero carbon data centers and follow the sun/follow the wind network

Business case viability of offering carbon offsets (and or equivalent in services) to IT departments and university researchers who reduce their carbon footprint by relocating computers and instrumentation to zero carbon data centers

International partnership with possible zero carbon nodes using virtual router/computers in Spain, Ireland, California, Australia, British Columbia, Ottawa, Quebec and Nova Scotia

Final remarks The problem we face is NOT energy consumption, but carbon emissions Think carbon, not energy We must start addressing climate change now – not in 2050 or 2020 80% reduction in CO2 emissions will fundamentally change everything we do including ICT and networks Huge potential for innovation for ICT sector because 30% of energy must come from renewable sources

The problem we face is NOT energy consumption, but carbon emissions

Think carbon, not energy

We must start addressing climate change now – not in 2050 or 2020

80% reduction in CO2 emissions will fundamentally change everything we do including ICT and networks

Huge potential for innovation for ICT sector because 30% of energy must come from renewable sources

Thank you More information List server on Green IT Send e-mail to bill.st.arnaud@canarie.ca http://green-broadband.blogspot.com http://free-fiber-to-the-home.blogspot.com/

More information

List server on Green IT

Send e-mail to bill.st.arnaud@canarie.ca

http://green-broadband.blogspot.com

http://free-fiber-to-the-home.blogspot.com/