USGS report finds that future climate shifts have been underestimated and warns of debilitating abrupt shift in climate that would be devastating. http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap3-4/final-report/default.htm http://climateprogress.org/2008/11/24/what-are-the-near-term-climate-pearl-harbors/ Tipping elements in the Earth's climate - National Academies of Science “ Society may be lulled into a false sense of security by smooth projections of global change. Our synthesis of present knowledge suggests that a variety of tipping elements could reach their critical point within this century under anthropogenic climate change. “ http://www.pnas.org/content/105/6/1786.abstract?maxtoshow=&HITS=10&hits=10&RESULTFORMAT=&fulltext=tipping+elements+lenton&searchid=1&FIRSTINDEX=0&resourcetype=HWCIT Arctic Climate Change may be at tipping point – Globe and Mail -Sept 2009 We thought by 2050, multi-year [sea] ice would be cut in half,” said Mr. Stewart from Ottawa. “Well, it happened in 2007.” http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/technology/science/arctic-climate-change-at-tipping-point/article1272939/ http://www.panda.org/wwf_news/news/?uNewsID=173262
Future projections from Gartner
Source: SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon economy in the information age First study to quantify the enabler effect of ICT on other sectors in terms of reducing CO2 emissions. Emissions from the ICT sector are estimated to rise significantly over the coming years No other sector can supply technology capabilities so integral to energy efficiency across such a range of other sectors or industries By 2020, ICT technologies can reduce global CO2 emissions by 7.8 versus 51.9 if business as usual (BAU) 7.8 Giga-tons of carbon dioxide emissions is greater than the current annual emissions of either the US or China
Building a zero carbon ICT infrastructure Purchasing green power locally is expensive with significant transmission line losses Demand for green power within cities expected to grow dramatically ICT facilities DON’T NEED TO BE LOCATED IN CITIES -Cooling also a major problem in cities But most renewable energy sites are very remote and impractical to connect to electrical grid. Can be easily reached by an optical network Provide independence from electrical utility and high costs in wheeling power Savings in transmission line losses (up to 15%) alone, plus carbon offsets can pay for moving ICT facilities to renewable energy site ICT is only industry ideally suited to relocate to renewable energy sites Also ideal for business continuity in event of climate catastrophe
Technology and SME business opportunities in the green space through communications enabled applications (CEA) We b services + Cloud Computing + Mobile Handoff + Green Nodes Bill St. Arnaud [email_address] Unless otherwise noted all material in this slide deck may be reproduced, modified or distributed without prior permission of the author
USGS report finds that future climate shifts have been underestimated and warns of debilitating abrupt shift in climate that would be devastating.
Tipping elements in the Earth's climate - National Academies of Science
“ Society may be lulled into a false sense of security by smooth projections of global change. Our synthesis of present knowledge suggests that a variety of tipping elements could reach their critical point within this century under anthropogenic climate change. “
“ We’re uncertain about the magnitude of climate change, which is inevitable, because we’re talking about reaching levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere not seen in millions of years.
You might think that this uncertainty weakens the case for action, but it actually strengthens it.
This risk of catastrophe, rather than the details of cost-benefit calculations, makes the most powerful case for strong climate policy.
Current projections of global warming in the absence of action are just too close to the kinds of numbers associated with doomsday scenarios. It would be irresponsible — it’s tempting to say criminally irresponsible — not to step back from what could all too easily turn out to be the edge of a cliff.”
Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/11/magazine/11Economy-t.html?pagewanted=1
The Global ICT Carbon Footprint is Roughly the Same as the Aviation Industry Today www.smart2020.org But ICT Emissions are Growing at 6% Annually!
ICT represent 8% of global electricity consumption
Projected to grow to as much as 20% of all electrical consumption in the US ( http://uclue.com/index.php?xq=724 )
Future Broadband- Internet alone is expected to consume 5% of all electricity http://www.ee.unimelb.edu.au/people/rst/talks/files/Tucker_Green_Plenary.pdf
The Global ICT Carbon Footprint by Subsector www.smart2020.org The Number of PCs (Desktops and Laptops) Globally is Expected to Increase from 592 Million in 2002 to More Than Four Billion in 2020 Data Centers & Clouds Are Low Hanging Fruit Telecom & Internet fastest growing PCs Are Biggest Problem
IT biggest power draw Heating, Cooling and Ventilation 40-50% Lighting 11% IT Equipment 30-40% Other 6% Sources: BOMA 2006, EIA 2006, AIA 2006 Energy Consumption Typical Building Energy Consumption World Wide Transportation 25% Manufacturing 25% Buildings 50%
Current Internet is based on old telco architecture of connecting users
New Internet is based on connecting users to information
Arbor study has vindicated Van Jacobson prediction
C. Labovitz, et al "ATLAS Internet Observatory 2009 Annual Report" http://www.nanog.org/meetings/nanog47/presentations/Monday/Labovitz_ObserveReport_N47_Mon.pdf
Over 50% of Internet traffic is from handful of information suppliers such as Google, Akamai, Content Distribution networks etc
Will have major impact on wireless networks as we move from “end to end” cell phone network to cell phone Internet
Traditional Internet Backbone ISP1 Backbone ISP 3 Backbone ISP 2 IX IX Regional ISP Large Content Provider with multiple servers Small Content Provider Last mile ISP Last mile ISP User’s Computer User’s Computer Thousands of miles Fiber Networks
Information Internet – zero carbon Backbone ISP1 Backbone ISP 3 Backbone ISP 2 IX IX Regional ISP Large Content Provider Small Content Provider Last mile ISP Last mile ISP User’s Computer User’s Computer Cloud CDN Content hosted CEA Nearby
Although carbon taxes or cap and trade are revenue neutral, they payee rarely sees any direct benefit
No incentive other than higher cost to reduce footprint
Rather than penalize consumers and businesses for carbon emissions, can we reward them for reducing their carbon emissions?
Carbon rewards can be CEA products delivered over broadband networks such movies, books, education, health services, collaborative education and research technologies etc
Carbon reward can also be free CEA services (with low carbon footprint) such as Internet, cellphone, fiber to the home, etc
Virtualization and De-materialization Source: European Commission Joint Research Centre, “The Future Impact of ICTs on Environmental Sustainability”, August 2004 Direct replacement of physical goods – 10% - 20% impact
There’s a school bus service called The Green Bus in Birmingham, UK which operates double-decker, low-carbon emissions buses that carry over 1400 kids to school every day (saving over 2000 car journeys).
In addition to encouraging kids to play peer-to-peer games, the access points allow the bus company to monitor where the buses are in the city in real time. Parents as well as staff can follow the progress of any bus via Google maps.
Business bus service in San Francisco offers office on the move – free wifi, femto cell service etc