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How Alberta and Canada can use ICT to reduce CO2 emissions

How Alberta and Canada can use ICT to reduce CO2 emissions

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  • USGS report finds that future climate shifts have been underestimated and warns of debilitating abrupt shift in climate that would be devastating. http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap3-4/final-report/default.htm http://climateprogress.org/2008/11/24/what-are-the-near-term-climate-pearl-harbors/ Tipping elements in the Earth's climate - National Academies of Science “ Society may be lulled into a false sense of security by smooth projections of global change. Our synthesis of present knowledge suggests that a variety of tipping elements could reach their critical point within this century under anthropogenic climate change. “ http://www.pnas.org/content/105/6/1786.abstract?maxtoshow=&HITS=10&hits=10&RESULTFORMAT=&fulltext=tipping+elements+lenton&searchid=1&FIRSTINDEX=0&resourcetype=HWCIT Arctic Climate Change may be at tipping point – Globe and Mail -Sept 2009 We thought by 2050, multi-year [sea] ice would be cut in half,” said Mr. Stewart from Ottawa. “Well, it happened in 2007.” http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/technology/science/arctic-climate-change-at-tipping-point/article1272939/ http://www.panda.org/wwf_news/news/?uNewsID=173262
  • ERM has a strong pro-active dimension. As much about proactively managing as measuring It is a key part of our mission to Enable you to make decisions that are based on risk across the enterprise, levels of users,
  • Source: SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon economy in the information age First study to quantify the enabler effect of ICT on other sectors in terms of reducing CO2 emissions. Emissions from the ICT sector are estimated to rise significantly over the coming years No other sector can supply technology capabilities so integral to energy efficiency across such a range of other sectors or industries By 2020, ICT technologies can reduce global CO2 emissions by 7.8 versus 51.9 if business as usual (BAU) 7.8 Giga-tons of carbon dioxide emissions is greater than the current annual emissions of either the US or China
  • Building a zero carbon ICT infrastructure Purchasing green power locally is expensive with significant transmission line losses Demand for green power within cities expected to grow dramatically ICT facilities DON’T NEED TO BE LOCATED IN CITIES -Cooling also a major problem in cities But most renewable energy sites are very remote and impractical to connect to electrical grid. Can be easily reached by an optical network Provide independence from electrical utility and high costs in wheeling power Savings in transmission line losses (up to 15%) alone, plus carbon offsets can pay for moving ICT facilities to renewable energy site ICT is only industry ideally suited to relocate to renewable energy sites Also ideal for business continuity in event of climate catastrophe
  • Transcript

    • 1. How Canada and Alberta can be a world leader in the next industrial transformation: Building a zero carbon economy through IT Bill St. Arnaud CANARIE Inc – www.canarie.ca [email_address] Unless otherwise noted all material in this slide deck may be reproduced, modified or distributed without prior permission of the author
    • 2. Transferring Alberta’s Wealth to the rest of Canada
      • PM Harper has committed reduction of 20% CO2 by 2020 from 2006 baseline
      • Government will need to collect $40 -$70 Billion in carbon taxes or cap and trade
      • About half the revenues will go to purchasing international offsets
      www.td.com/economics
    • 3. Is there a better way?
      • Can we use IT to keep some of that wealth in Alberta (and Canada)?
      • And create a knowledge based economy that generates little carbon versus the current situation?
      • Rather than Co2 taxation can we develop other policy techniques to reduce that does not penalize consumers or provinces?
    • 4. Climate Forecasts MIT
        • MIT report predicts median temperature forecast of 5.2C
          • 11C increase in Northern Canada
          • http://globalchange.mit.edu/pubs/abstract.php?publication_id=990
        • Last Ice age average global temperature was 5-6C cooler than today
          • Most of Canada was under 2-3 km ice
          • With BAU we are talking about 5-6C change in temperature in the opposite direction in less than 80 Years
    • 5. 2008 second warmest year ever
    • 6. Climate Change is not reversible
      • Climate Change is not like acid rain or ozone destruction where environment will quickly return to normal once source of pollution is removed
      • GHG emissions will stay in the atmosphere for thousands of years and continue to accumulate
      • Planet will continue to warm up even if we drastically reduce emissions
      All we hope to achieve is to slow down the rapid rate of climate change Weaver et al., GRL (2007)
    • 7. Climate tipping points
      • USGS report finds that future climate shifts have been underestimated and warns of debilitating abrupt shift in climate that would be devastating.
      • Tipping elements in the Earth's climate - National Academies of Science
        • “ Society may be lulled into a false sense of security by smooth projections of global change. Our synthesis of present knowledge suggests that a variety of tipping elements could reach their critical point within this century under anthropogenic climate change. “
    • 8.
      • 80/50 rule – 80% reduction in CO2 by 2050
      • (Commitment made by G8 countries)
      j 15 - 20 tons/person 1 ton/person 2008 2050 ? 2100 2 tons/person Source: Stern 2008 Our Challenge
    • 9. The Global ICT Carbon Footprint is Roughly the Same as the Aviation Industry Today www.smart2020.org But ICT Emissions are Growing at 6% Annually!
      • ICT represent 8% of global electricity consumption
      • Projected to grow to as much as 20% of all electrical consumption in the US ( http://uclue.com/index.php?xq=724 )
      • Future Broadband- Internet alone is expected to consume 5% of all electricity http://www.ee.unimelb.edu.au/people/rst/talks/files/Tucker_Green_Plenary.pdf
    • 10. The Global ICT Carbon Footprint by Subsector www.smart2020.org The Number of PCs (Desktops and Laptops) Globally is Expected to Increase from 592 Million in 2002 to More Than Four Billion in 2020 PCs Are Biggest Problem Data Centers Are Low Hanging Fruit
    • 11. IT biggest power draw Heating, Cooling and Ventilation 40-50% Lighting 11% IT Equipment 30-40% Other 6% Sources: BOMA 2006, EIA 2006, AIA 2006 Energy Consumption Typical Building Energy Consumption World Wide Transportation 25% Manufacturing 25% Buildings 50%
    • 12. The Falsehood of Energy Efficiency
      • Most current approaches to reduce carbon footprint are focused on increased energy efficiency of equipment and processes
      • But growth in ICT deployment of equipment and services is outstripping any gains made in efficiency
        • Which is likely to accelerate as ICT is used to support abatement in other fields such as smart homes, smart buildings, smart grids etc
      • Also greater efficiency can paradoxically increase energy consumption by reducing overall cost service and therefore stimulates demand
        • Khazzoom-Brookes postulate (aka Jevons paradox aka rebound effect)
        • In last Energy crisis in 1973 Congress passed first energy efficiency laws (CAFÉ) which mandate minimum mileage for cars, home insulation and appliances
        • Net effect was to reduce cost of driving car, heating or cooling home, and electricity required for appliances
        • Consumer response was to drive further, buy bigger homes and appliances
    • 13.
      • Waxman-Markey H.R. 2454
        • “ Average” increase in electricity costs for businesses and institutions will be 60% with cap and trade
        • Organizations that use electricity from coal fired power plants will see significantly higher costs (by as much as 3 times current prices)
        • 30% of electricity will come from non carbon sources
        • Utilities will be required to spend 16% revenues on energy reduction strategies
        • If you emit above your “cap” you are required to purchase offsets at $11-$15 per ton in 2012 and roughly double in price by 2025.
      • Kerry-Boxer more agrressive reduction targets
      US Climate Legislation
    • 14. State GHG Targets 2009 SOURCE: Pew Center on Global Climate Change, Climate101-State Actions, January 2009 42% of States Have Existing GHG Reduction Targets
    • 15. Carbon Footprint by state
    • 16. ICT’s Enabling Effect is Significant
      • Can deliver carbon emission reductions five times size of sector’s own footprint by 2020
        • 7.8 Giga-tons carbon dioxide equivalent
        • Greater than US or China’s current annual emissions
      • Key sectors include Transportation, Buildings, Industrial Processes, and Power
      • No other sector can achieve this enabler effect !!
      Source: SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon economy in the information age, 2008 12
    • 17. Canada’s ICT enabler effect
      • ICT sector contributes one megatonne of GHG emissions or < 1% of Canada’s total
      • Enabling effect estimated at between 19.1 – 36 MT of CO2e
      • Telework, Car pools, Transportation logistics, Virtual Meetings, Smart Buildings & e-commerce
      • Estimated financial benefit between $7.5 billion – $12.9 billion
      Source: Industry Canada
    • 18. MIT to build zero carbon data center in Holyoke MA
      • The data center will be managed and funded by the four main partners in the facility: the Massachusetts Institute of Technology , Cisco Systems , the University of Massachusetts and EMC .
      • It will be a high-performance computing environment that will help expand the research and development capabilities of the companies and schools in Holyoke
        • http://www.greenercomputing.com/news/2009/06/11/cisco-emc-team-mit-launch-100m-green-data-center
    • 19. Many examples already Hydro-electric powered data centers Data Islandia Digital Data Archive ASIO solar powered data centers Wind powered data centers Ecotricity in UK builds windmills at data center locations with no capital cost to user
    • 20. Grand Challenge – Building robust ICT services using renewable energy only
      • 30% of electrical power will come from renewable sources
      • How do you provide mission critical ICT services when energy source is unreliable?
        • Ebbing wind or setting sun
      • Back up diesel and batteries are not an option because they are not zero carbon and power outages can last for days or weeks
      • Need new network architectures and business models to ensure reliable service delivery by quickly moving compute jobs and data sets around the world to sites that have available power
        • Will require high bandwidth networks and routing architectures to quickly move jobs and data sets from site to site
    • 21. Wind powered Cell phone tower
      • Over 100,000 cell phone towers to be powered by renewable energy by 2012
      • Vertical axis turbines and solar
    • 22. CANARIE Green-IT Pilot
      • $3m allocation for world’s first zero carbon Internet
      • Two objectives:
        • Technical viability and usability for relocating computers to zero carbon data centers and follow the sun/follow the wind network
        • Business case viability of offering carbon offsets (and or equivalent in services) to IT departments and university researchers who reduce their carbon footprint by relocating computers and instrumentation to zero carbon data centers
      • International partnership with possible zero carbon nodes using virtual router/computers in Spain, Ireland, California, Australia, British Columbia, Ottawa, Quebec and Nova Scotia
    • 23. Emerging “Follow the Sun” Technologies
      • The ability to migrate entire virtual machines (routers and computers) to alternate data centres exists.
      • Over HS networks the latency is tiny and transfer is invisible to the user.
      • Happens instantly without user knowledge, action or intervention
      Nortel’s research labs developed and conceived the “Virtual Machine Turntable in 2006 and through collaboration with R&E networks in the US, Canada, Netherlands, and South Korea proved viability.
    • 24. The SC06 VMT Demonstrator Computation at the Right Place & Time! We migrate live Virtual Machines, unbeknownst to applications and clients, for data affinity, business continuity / disaster recovery, load balancing, or power management DataCenter @Tampa SC|2006 Nortel’s Sensor Services Platform Korea KREOnet Netherlight DRAC Controlled Lightpaths Internal/External Sensor Webs Amsterdam
    • 25. Economic benefits of follow the wind/sun architectures
      • Cost- and Energy-Aware Load Distribution Across Data Centers
        • http://www.cs.rutgers.edu/~ricardob/papers/hotpower09.pdf
        • Green data centers can decrease brown energy consumption by 35% by leveraging the green data centers at only a 3% cost increase
      • Cutting the Electric Bill for Internet-Scale Systems
        • Companies can shift computing power to a data center in a location where it’s an off-peak time of the day and energy prices are low
        • Cassatt a product that dynamically shifts loads to find the cheapest energy prices
        • 45% maximum savings in energy costs
        • http://ccr.sigcomm.org/online/files/p123.pdf
        • http://earth2tech.com/2009/08/19/how-data-centers-can-follow-energy-prices-to-save-millions/
      • Computing for the future of the planet
        • http://www.cl.cam.ac.uk/research/dtg/~ah12/
        • http://earth2tech.com/2008/07/25/data-centers-will-follow-the-sun-and-chase-the-wind
    • 26. What are carbon offsets?
      • Many claims of energy savings can only be proven through rigorous process of carbon offsets (ISO 14064)
      • Companies or individuals buy carbon offsets from projects that remove or reduce carbon
        • Planting trees, building hydro dams, installing energy efficient processes, etc
      • Two types of markets
        • Regulated markets – Alberta, BC , Europe and New England
        • Voluntary markets – Air Canada, Chicago, etc
        • Carbon buying and selling is done through registries or exchanges
          • Pacific Carbon Trust, Montreal Carbon exchange, REGI
      • In regulated markets all big emitters such as power plants, steel mills, universities , etc must purchase permits based on cap and trade
    • 27. The Carbon Economy
      • $500 billion - Value of low-carbon energy markets by 2050
      • $100 billion - Demand for projects generating GHG missions credits by 2030
      • Global carbon market expected to grow 58% this year to $92 billion
      • Carbon market could be worth billions for telecoms & IT
        • US market estimated at $700 billion
        • http://telephonyonline.com/global/news/carbon-trade-arnaud-0626/
      • Obama’s cap and trade (Waxman-Markey) bill will force emitters to spend $1.25 on carbon offsets for every $1.00 on emission permits at $ 1billion per year
      Source: ClimateCheck 20
    • 28. Three approaches to a better planet
      • Carbon Neutral
        • Attempt to reduce CO2 by undertaking activities that balance our carbon footprint
        • E.g. Cap and trade, planting trees, etc
      • Zero Carbon
        • Attempt to reduce directly our carbon footprint as close as possible to zero
        • E.g. Use of renewable power
      • Carbon Positive
        • Attempt to reduce CO2 greater than our carbon footprint
        • E.g. Carbon absorbing roof tiles, carbon rewards or gCommerce
    • 29. Digital vs Traditional appliances
    • 30. Case Western pilot with Kindle DX
      • One pound of printer paper generates 4 pounds of CO2
      • One pound of newspaper produces 3 pounds of CO2
      • One pound of textbooks produces 5 pounds of CO2
      • Babcock school of Management textbooks for 160 students alone produces 45 Tons CO2
        • http://www.stewartmarion.com/carbon-footprint/html/carbon-footprint-stuff.html
    • 31. Free Wifi on Buses
      • There’s a school bus service called The Green Bus in Birmingham, UK which operates double-decker, low-carbon emissions buses that carry over 1400 kids to school every day (saving over 2000 car journeys).
      • In addition to encouraging kids to play peer-to-peer games, the access points allow the bus company to monitor where the buses are in the city in real time. Parents as well as staff can follow the progress of any bus via Google maps.
      • Business bus service in San Francisco offers office on the move – free wifi, femto cell service etc
      •  
      • http://www.muniwireless.com/2009/01/14/school-kids-enjoy-wi-fi-on-green-bus/
      32
    • 32. Carbon Rewards rather carbon taxes – “gCommerce”
      • Although carbon taxes or cap and trade are revenue neutral, they payee rarely sees any direct benefit
        • No incentive other than higher cost to reduce footprint
      • Rather than penalize consumers and businesses for carbon emissions, can we reward them for reducing their carbon emissions?
      • Carbon rewards can be “virtual” products delivered over broadband networks such movies, books, education, health services, collarboartive education and research technologies etc
      • Carbon reward can also be free ICT services (with low carbon footprint) such as Internet, cellphone, fiber to the home, etc
    • 33. Carbon Reward Strategy for last mile infrastructure
      • Provide free high speed Internet and fiber to the home with resale of electrical and gas power (ESCOs)
        • http://www.newamerica.net/files/HomesWithTails_wu_slater.pdf
        • Pilots in Cleveland, Switzerland, Ottawa, etc
      • Customer pays a premium on their gas and electric bill
      • Customers encouraged to save money through reduced energy consumption and reduced carbon output
      • Customer NOT penalized if they reduce energy consumption
        • May end up paying substantially less then they do now for gas + electricity + broadband + telephone + cable
      • Network operator gets guaranteed revenue based on energy consumption rather than fickle triple play
    • 34. Final remarks
      • The problem we face is NOT energy consumption, but carbon emissions
      • Think carbon, not energy
      • We must start addressing climate change now – not in 2050 or 2020
      • 80% reduction in CO2 emissions will fundamentally change everything we do including ICT and networks
      • Huge potential for innovation for ICT sector because 30% of energy must come from renewable sources
    • 35. Thank you
      • More information
      • List server on Green IT
        • Send e-mail to bill.st.arnaud@canarie.ca
      • http://green-broadband.blogspot.com
      • http://free-fiber-to-the-home.blogspot.com/

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