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R&E networks have potential source of new revenue in helping member institutions reduce their energy costs through a "cap and reward" system

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  • USGS report finds that future climate shifts have been underestimated and warns of debilitating abrupt shift in climate that would be devastating. http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap3-4/final-report/default.htm http://climateprogress.org/2008/11/24/what-are-the-near-term-climate-pearl-harbors/ Tipping elements in the Earth's climate - National Academies of Science “ Society may be lulled into a false sense of security by smooth projections of global change. Our synthesis of present knowledge suggests that a variety of tipping elements could reach their critical point within this century under anthropogenic climate change. “ http://www.pnas.org/content/105/6/1786.abstract?maxtoshow=&HITS=10&hits=10&RESULTFORMAT=&fulltext=tipping+elements+lenton&searchid=1&FIRSTINDEX=0&resourcetype=HWCIT Arctic Climate Change may be at tipping point – Globe and Mail -Sept 2009 We thought by 2050, multi-year [sea] ice would be cut in half,” said Mr. Stewart from Ottawa. “Well, it happened in 2007.” http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/technology/science/arctic-climate-change-at-tipping-point/article1272939/ http://www.panda.org/wwf_news/news/?uNewsID=173262
  • Future projections from Gartner
  • Building a zero carbon ICT infrastructure Purchasing green power locally is expensive with significant transmission line losses Demand for green power within cities expected to grow dramatically ICT facilities DON’T NEED TO BE LOCATED IN CITIES -Cooling also a major problem in cities But most renewable energy sites are very remote and impractical to connect to electrical grid. Can be easily reached by an optical network Provide independence from electrical utility and high costs in wheeling power Savings in transmission line losses (up to 15%) alone, plus carbon offsets can pay for moving ICT facilities to renewable energy site ICT is only industry ideally suited to relocate to renewable energy sites Also ideal for business continuity in event of climate catastrophe
  • CENIC Green IT

    1. 1. The Critical Role that CENIC can play in helping California higher-ed reduce its carbon footprint Bill St. Arnaud [email_address] Unless otherwise noted all material in this slide deck may be reproduced, modified or distributed without prior permission of the author
    2. 2. Climate Forecasts MIT <ul><ul><li>MIT report predicts median temperature forecast of 5.2C </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>11C increase in Northern Canada </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>http://globalchange.mit.edu/pubs/abstract.php?publication_id=990 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Last Ice age average global temperature was 5-6C cooler than today </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Most of Canada was under 2-3 km ice </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>With BAU we are talking about 5-6C change in temperature in the opposite direction in less than 80 Years </li></ul></ul></ul>
    3. 3. Global Average Temperature
    4. 4. 2009 second warmest year ever
    5. 5. Climate Change is not reversible <ul><li>Climate Change is not like acid rain or ozone destruction where environment will quickly return to normal once source of pollution is removed </li></ul><ul><li>GHG emissions will stay in the atmosphere for thousands of years and continue to accumulate </li></ul><ul><li>Planet will continue to warm up even if we drastically reduce emissions </li></ul>All we hope to achieve is to slow down the rapid rate of climate change Weaver et al., GRL (2007)
    6. 6. Climate tipping points <ul><li>USGS report finds that future climate shifts have been underestimated and warns of debilitating abrupt shift in climate that would be devastating. </li></ul><ul><li>Tipping elements in the Earth's climate - National Academies of Science </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“ Society may be lulled into a false sense of security by smooth projections of global change. Our synthesis of present knowledge suggests that a variety of tipping elements could reach their critical point within this century under anthropogenic climate change. “ </li></ul></ul>
    7. 7. The Global ICT Carbon Footprint is Roughly the Same as the Aviation Industry Today www.smart2020.org But ICT Emissions are Growing at 6% Annually! <ul><li>ICT represent 8% of global electricity consumption </li></ul><ul><li>Projected to grow to as much as 20% of all electrical consumption in the US ( http://uclue.com/index.php?xq=724 ) </li></ul><ul><li>Future Broadband- Internet alone is expected to consume 5% of all electricity http://www.ee.unimelb.edu.au/people/rst/talks/files/Tucker_Green_Plenary.pdf </li></ul>
    8. 8. The Global ICT Carbon Footprint by Subsector www.smart2020.org The Number of PCs (Desktops and Laptops) Globally is Expected to Increase from 592 Million in 2002 to More Than Four Billion in 2020 Data Centers Are Low Hanging Fruit Telecom & Internet fastest growing PCs Are Biggest Problem
    9. 9. Huge jump in carbon footprint from telecom and Internet <ul><li>Huge jump in carbon footprint from telecom and Internet http://bit.ly/4MVcET </li></ul><ul><li>About 37 percent of the carbon footprint of the entire information and communication technology sector (ICT) in 2007 was due to the energy consumption of telecom infrastructure and devices, according to the Climate Group (14 percent came from data centers, and 49 percent came from PCs and peripherals). </li></ul><ul><li>Contrast that with telecom’s carbon footprint figure in 2002 which was 28 percent of ICT’s carbon footprint. </li></ul>
    10. 10. IT biggest power draw Heating, Cooling and Ventilation 40-50% Lighting 11% IT Equipment 30-40% Other 6% Sources: BOMA 2006, EIA 2006, AIA 2006 Energy Consumption Typical Building Energy Consumption World Wide Transportation 25% Manufacturing 25% Buildings 50%
    11. 11. <ul><li>Half of ICT consumption is data centers </li></ul><ul><li>50% of today’s Data Centers and major science facilities in the US will have insufficient power and cooling;* </li></ul><ul><li>By 2010, half of all Data Centers will have to relocate or outsource applications to another facility.* </li></ul><ul><li>During the next 5 years, 90% of all companies will experience some kind of power disruption. In that same period one in four companies will experience a significant business disruption* </li></ul><ul><li>Data centers will consume 12% of electricity in the US by 2020 (TV Telecom) </li></ul>Growth Projections Data Centers Source: Gartner; Meeting the DC power and cooling challenge
    12. 12. California’s Climate Leadership <ul><li>Executive Order S-3-05 set GHG targets. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>2010 GHG emissions set to 2000 levels. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>2020 GHG emissions set to 1990 levels. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>2050 GHG emissions set to 80% of 1990 levels. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>AB 32 (Signed Into Law 2006) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Identify statewide GHG emissions for 1990 to serve as emissions limit to be achieved by 2020. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>427 million metric tons of CO2e goal, roughly 30% reduction. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Mandatory reporting and verification of GHG emissions by major emitters on or before Jan 1, 2008. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>If you emit over 25,000 metric tons of CO2e reporting is required. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Identify and adopt regulations for discrete early actions enforceable by or before January 2010. </li></ul></ul>Source: Jerry Sheehan UCSD- CALIT2
    13. 13. California & Renewable Energy <ul><li>California State law currently requires 20% of power to be renewable by 2010. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>About 50% of goal will be reached. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Executive Order S-14-08 [October 2008] set a goal of 33% renewable in the portfolio . </li></ul><ul><li>Executive Order S-21-09 [September 2009] directs California Air Resources Board to adopt regulations to support 33% renewable by 2020. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Regulations to be in place and adopted by stakeholder by July 2010. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>More strict then any other state but Hawaii which has a 40% requirement by 4030. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Including hydro-power by 2020, California expects to exceed this and hit 45% renewables. </li></ul></ul>S-21-09 SOURCE: California Energy Commission, Energy Almanac Source: Jerry Sheehan UCSD- CALIT2
    14. 14. Federal Climate Regulation October 2009 <ul><li>The EPA Mandatory Greenhouse Gas Reporting Rule (March 2009) in response to Public Law 110-161 (08 Appropriations) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>25,000 Tons or More Must Report to EPA. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Waxman-Markey H.R. 2454 passes the House in July 2009 by a vote of 219 Ayes, 212 Nays, 3 Present </li></ul><ul><ul><li>17% CO2 Reduction by 2020. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Federal Cap and Trade System. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Kerry-Boxer Clean Energy Jobs & American Power Act </li></ul><ul><ul><li>More aggressive CO2 reduction targets then Waxman-Markey (20% by 2020 over 2005, 80% by 2050). </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cap and Trade becomes “Pollution Reduction & Investment”. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>NYT, 9.30: Best guess is as of September 30 there are about 45 yes votes for the legislation. </li></ul></ul>
    15. 15. State Leadership on Climate STATES 2009 -72% Have Climate Action Plans -42% Have GHG Reduction Targets -66% Are Experimenting with Cap & Trade SOURCE: Pew Center on Global Climate Change, Climate101-State Actions, January 2009 Source: Jerry Sheehan UCSD- CALIT2
    16. 16. <ul><li>Bill 44-2007 was introduced in 2007 and enacted into law in 2008. The law is known as the Greenhouse Gas Reductions Target Act. </li></ul><ul><li>The Act establishes greenhouse gas emission target levels for the Province. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>2020 BC GHG will be 33% less than 2007. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>2050 BC GHG will be 80% less than 2007. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Bill mandates that by 2010 each public sector organization must be carbon neutral. </li></ul><ul><li>If a public sector organization can not achieve carbon neutrality then they are required to purchase offsets at $24/ton </li></ul>GHG Regulation in British Columbia SOURCE: “Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report 2007”, Ministry of Environment, Victoria, British Columbia, July 2009 Source: Jerry Sheehan UCSD
    17. 17. Carbon Costs for the University of British Columbia SOURCE: UBC Sustainability Office, August 2009 SOURCE: http://climateaction.ubc.ca/category/emission-sources SOURCE: UBC Climate Action Plan, GHG 2006 Inventory UBC Greenhouse Gas Liability 2010-2012 2010 2011 2012 Carbon Offset $1,602,750 $1,602,750 $1,602,750 Carbon Tax $1,179,940 $1,474,925 $1,769,910 Total $2,782,690 $3,077,675 $3,372,660
    18. 18. Grand Challenge – Building robust ICT services using renewable energy only <ul><li>30% of electrical power will come from renewable sources </li></ul><ul><li>How do you provide mission critical ICT services when energy source is unreliable? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Ebbing wind or setting sun </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Back up diesel and batteries are not an option because they are not zero carbon and power outages can last for days or weeks </li></ul><ul><li>Need new network architectures and business models to ensure reliable service delivery by quickly moving compute jobs and data sets around the world to sites that have available power </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Will require high bandwidth networks and routing architectures to quickly move jobs and data sets from site to site </li></ul></ul>
    19. 19. UCSD is Installing Zero Carbon Emission Solar and Fuel Cell DC Electricity Generators San Diego’s Point Loma Wastewater Treatment Plant Produces Waste Methane UCSD 2.8 Megawatt Fuel Cell Power Plant Uses Methane 2 Megawatts of Solar Power Cells Being Installed Available Late 2009 Use to Power Local Data Centers Source: Larry Smarr UCSD- CALIT2
    20. 20. The NSF-Funded UCSD GreenLight Project: Instrumenting the Energy Cost of Cluster Computing <ul><li>Focus on 5 Communities with At-Scale Computing Needs: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Metagenomics </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ocean Observing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Microscopy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Bioinformatics </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Digital Media </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Goal: Measure, Monitor, & Web Publish Real-Time Sensor Outputs </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Via Service-Oriented Architectures </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Allow Researchers Anywhere to Study Computing Energy Cost </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Enable Scientists to Explore Tactics for Maximizing Work/Watt </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Develop Middleware that Automates Optimal Choice of Compute/RAM Power Strategies for Desired Greenness </li></ul>Source: Larry Smarr UCSD- CALIT2
    21. 21. MIT to build zero carbon data center in Holyoke MA <ul><li>The data center will be managed and funded by the four main partners in the facility: the Massachusetts Institute of Technology , Cisco Systems , the University of Massachusetts and EMC . </li></ul><ul><li>It will be a high-performance computing environment that will help expand the research and development capabilities of the companies and schools in Holyoke </li></ul><ul><ul><li>http://www.greenercomputing.com/news/2009/06/11/cisco-emc-team-mit-launch-100m-green-data-center </li></ul></ul>
    22. 22. GreenStar –Clouds and Virtualization <ul><ul><li>Distributed computing architectures, applications, grids, clouds, Web services, virtualization, dematerialization, remote instrumentation and sensors, etc. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Share infrastructure & maximize lower cost power by “following wind & sun” networks. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Develop benchmarking tools to earn CO2 offsets </li></ul></ul>http://www.greenstarnetwork.com/
    23. 23. Emerging “Follow the Sun” Technologies <ul><li>The ability to migrate entire virtual machines (routers and computers) to alternate data centres exists. </li></ul><ul><li>Over HS networks the latency is tiny and transfer is invisible to the user. </li></ul><ul><li>Happens instantly without user knowledge, action or intervention </li></ul>Nortel’s research labs developed and conceived the “Virtual Machine Turntable in 2006 and through collaboration with R&E networks in the US, Canada, Netherlands, and South Korea proved viability.
    24. 24. Economic benefits of follow the wind/sun architectures <ul><li>Cost- and Energy-Aware Load Distribution Across Data Centers </li></ul><ul><ul><li>http://www.cs.rutgers.edu/~ricardob/papers/hotpower09.pdf </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Green data centers can decrease brown energy consumption by 35% by leveraging the green data centers at only a 3% cost increase </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Cutting the Electric Bill for Internet-Scale Systems </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Companies can shift computing power to a data center in a location where it’s an off-peak time of the day and energy prices are low </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cassatt a product that dynamically shifts loads to find the cheapest energy prices </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>45% maximum savings in energy costs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>http://ccr.sigcomm.org/online/files/p123.pdf </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>http://earth2tech.com/2009/08/19/how-data-centers-can-follow-energy-prices-to-save-millions/ </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Computing for the future of the planet </li></ul><ul><ul><li>http://www.cl.cam.ac.uk/research/dtg/~ah12/ </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>http://earth2tech.com/2008/07/25/data-centers-will-follow-the-sun-and-chase-the-wind </li></ul></ul>
    25. 25. Carbon Rewards rather carbon taxes – “gCommerce” or “Cap and Reward” <ul><li>Although carbon taxes or cap and trade are revenue neutral, they payee rarely sees any direct benefit </li></ul><ul><ul><li>No incentive other than higher cost to reduce footprint </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Rather than penalize consumers and businesses for carbon emissions, can we reward them for reducing their carbon emissions? </li></ul><ul><li>Carbon rewards can be “virtual” products delivered over broadband networks such movies, books, education, health services, collarboartive education and research technologies etc </li></ul><ul><li>Carbon reward can also be free ICT services (with low carbon footprint) such as Internet, cellphone, fiber to the home, etc </li></ul>
    26. 26. Proposed new funding scenario for R&E networks and cost reduction for universities <ul><li>Many universities are proposing to go carbon neutral and/or mandated to reduce their energy and carbon footprint </li></ul><ul><li>Purchase of high quality offsets difficult and costly </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Better to find energy and carbon savings internally </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Computers, networks and data centers account for 30-50% of energy consumption on campus </li></ul><ul><li>Video conferencing, eLearning, zero carbon data centers, clouds, grids collaborative cyber-infrastructure, etc should reduce energy consumption </li></ul><ul><li>Most universities don’t have processes to allocate energy or CO2 costs to individual departments or researchers </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Significant challenge as appropriating heating, cooling, electricity, computing and networks costs can be very difficult </li></ul></ul><ul><li>There is no incentive for researchers or educators to adopt low energy or CO2 solutions </li></ul>
    27. 27. <ul><li>Most R&E networks charge a membership fee or base fee based on size of institution, research dollars or number of students </li></ul><ul><li>Instead propose to charge membership or base fee based on institution’s energy consumption </li></ul><ul><ul><li>E.g. 1% of total Kwh for the past year </li></ul></ul><ul><li>R&E network agrees to provide a variety of services at no charge including </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>“ X” miles of dedicated wavelengths </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>“ Y” Mbps of Internet bandwidth </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>“ Z” hours of video- conference </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>“ W” time on a commercial compute cloud or central storage </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>“ V” allocation on Optiputer or 4K vide conference </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>etc </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Institution is encouraged to reduce energy consumption and there is penalty in services if they do so </li></ul>New R&E network funding scenario “ Cap and Reward”
    28. 28. New University low carbon funding scenario <ul><li>University sets up an internal fund to reward departments or researchers who reduce energy consumption and/or carbon footprint </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Using services provided by R&E network, plus other incentives </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Each institution can adopt their own methodology to encourage as researcher or department to reduce their carbon footprint: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Additional research funds </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Access to free external dedicated lightpaths </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Free use of commercial cloud computing, centralized storage on R&E networks </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Access to shared compute energy/grid with other institutions such as Optiputer, 4K video </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Free Cisco tele conference unit </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Etc </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Simple baseline measurements of current energy and CO2 consumption using data from Greenlight etc in order to qualify </li></ul>
    29. 29. Final remarks <ul><li>The problem we face is NOT energy consumption, but carbon emissions </li></ul><ul><li>Think carbon, not energy </li></ul><ul><li>We must start addressing climate change now – not in 2050 or 2020 </li></ul><ul><li>80% reduction in CO2 emissions will fundamentally change everything we do including ICT and networks </li></ul><ul><li>Huge potential for innovation for ICT sector because 30% of energy must come from renewable sources </li></ul>
    30. 30. Cyber-infrastructure in a Carbon Constrained World http://net.educause.edu/ir/library/pdf/ERM0960.pdf
    31. 31. Power Consumption of IP network Source: Rod Tucker
    32. 32. Challenge of efficiency Source: Rod Tucker
    33. 33. Let’s Keep The Conversation Going Blogspot Twitter http://twitter.com/lsmarr www.facebook.com Larry Smarr Facebook Larry Smarr – CAL IT2 Bill St. Arnaud http://green-broadband.blogspot.com Twitter http://twitter.com/BillStArnaud
    34. 34. Thank you <ul><li>More information </li></ul><ul><li>List server on Green IT </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Send e-mail to bill.st.arnaud@gmail.com </li></ul></ul><ul><li>http://green-broadband.blogspot.com </li></ul><ul><li>http://free-fiber-to-the-home.blogspot.com/ </li></ul>