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Dynamic Cities: Planning for Peak Oil and Climate Change Bryn Davidson B.Eng. M.Arch. LEED-AP
Peak Oil  and  Climate Change
 
US Domestic Oil Production
 
US Energy Information Agency
US Energy Information Agency
US Energy Information Agency
US Energy Information Agency
Peak Oil  +  Climate Change The Dynamic City = Sustainable and Resilient
Make resilient investments in infrastructure Create resilient city systems 1 2 The Dynamic City = Sustainable and Resilient
Make resilient investments in infrastructure (invest in projects that retain their value across many futures) Create resil...
Make resilient investments in infrastructure Create resilient city systems (that remain functional, and fair, through tran...
= Why are we only planning for a future that looks like the past?
Bundle of strategies for reducing emissions.
Only ~15% of strategies address oil dependence
BC:  ‘Gateway’ Highway Expansions  ? Why are we only planning for a future that looks like the past? ‘ Peak Oil’ is missin...
WA:  Alaskan Way Viaduct Tunnel BC:  ‘Gateway’ Highway Expansions  Why are we only planning for a future that looks like t...
WA:  Alaskan Way Viaduct Tunnel Why are we only planning for a future that looks like the past? San Antonio:  410 Expansion
WA:  Alaskan Way Viaduct Tunnel Do these projects still have value in a future defined by peak oil and climate change?  Sa...
WA:  Alaskan Way Viaduct Tunnel Will they become stranded assets? Are they diverting resources from more important project...
Will they become stranded assets? Are they diverting resources from more important projects?
Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change
Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by increasing prices) B.A.U. (Population and economic growth) Today Oil Depletion Scenario: C...
Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by increasing prices) B.A.U. (Population and economic growth) Today Total miles driven using ...
Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by increasing prices) B.A.U. (Population and economic growth) Today Modeling a future with bo...
Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by increasing prices) B.A.U. (Population and economic growth) Today Modeling a future with bo...
Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by increasing prices) B.A.U. (Population and economic growth) Today Total Transportation Capa...
Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by increasing prices) B.A.U. (Population and economic growth) Today Required Road Capacity:  ...
Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by increasing prices) B.A.U. (Population and economic growth) Today Local Population Growth S...
Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by increasing prices) B.A.U. (Population and economic growth) Today Mobility Shortage vs. Tod...
 
 
<ul><li>Concern for climate change is critical,  </li></ul><ul><li>but what really drives change ‘at scale’? </li></ul><ul...
<ul><li>Price Spikes </li></ul><ul><li>Recession </li></ul><ul><li>Rationing </li></ul><ul><li>Shortages </li></ul><ul><li...
Is this an investment that has value in a post-oil world? Does it contribute to a resilient transportation system? <ul><li...
The Dynamic City = ‘Sustainable’ + Resilient
Planning Dynamic Cities: <ul><li>Throw away your extrapolated forecasts </li></ul><ul><li>Get your team up to speed on pea...
Investing in electrified rail  (skytrain, streetcars, freight rail)
Bike Lanes:  Facilitating ‘Post-Carbon’ Consumer and Employee Mobility
‘ Net Positive’ Business As the business grows, regional oil consumption goes down
‘ Post Carbon’ Goods Movement
‘ Post Carbon’ Goods Movement All electric goods movement Rail to Electric cross docking (False Creek Flats)
‘ Eco-density’ Laneway Housing
Bryn Davidson B.Eng. M.Arch. LEED-AP [email_address] 604.728.0606
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Resilient Cities - Peak Oil and Climate Change - Vancouver Board of Trade Nov 2010

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Bryn Davidson's presentation to the Vancouver Board of Trade, November 2010.

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  • Unfortunately the slideshare conversion mangled the EIA graphic. The point was to show that ’mainstream’ energy analysis groups like the US EIA are aware of the underlying rate of depletion, but they choose to assume that business-as-usual growth will be maintained by increasingly large amounts of ’unidentified’ projects.

    While there certainly will be new discoveries, the question is more about the relative rates of discovery vs. depletion, and whether or not the ’business as usual’ model is even a plausible scenario.

    In a scenario where depletion outpaces discovery, our current default regional strategy for quickly reducing oil consumption is economic recession.
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Transcript of "Resilient Cities - Peak Oil and Climate Change - Vancouver Board of Trade Nov 2010"

  1. 1. Dynamic Cities: Planning for Peak Oil and Climate Change Bryn Davidson B.Eng. M.Arch. LEED-AP
  2. 2. Peak Oil and Climate Change
  3. 4. US Domestic Oil Production
  4. 6. US Energy Information Agency
  5. 7. US Energy Information Agency
  6. 8. US Energy Information Agency
  7. 9. US Energy Information Agency
  8. 10. Peak Oil + Climate Change The Dynamic City = Sustainable and Resilient
  9. 11. Make resilient investments in infrastructure Create resilient city systems 1 2 The Dynamic City = Sustainable and Resilient
  10. 12. Make resilient investments in infrastructure (invest in projects that retain their value across many futures) Create resilient city systems 1 2 Scenario Planning! The Dynamic City = Sustainable and Resilient
  11. 13. Make resilient investments in infrastructure Create resilient city systems (that remain functional, and fair, through transition shocks) 1 2 Prepare for Likely Transition Shocks The Dynamic City = Sustainable and Resilient
  12. 14. = Why are we only planning for a future that looks like the past?
  13. 15. Bundle of strategies for reducing emissions.
  14. 16. Only ~15% of strategies address oil dependence
  15. 17. BC: ‘Gateway’ Highway Expansions ? Why are we only planning for a future that looks like the past? ‘ Peak Oil’ is missing from the conversation.
  16. 18. WA: Alaskan Way Viaduct Tunnel BC: ‘Gateway’ Highway Expansions Why are we only planning for a future that looks like the past?
  17. 19. WA: Alaskan Way Viaduct Tunnel Why are we only planning for a future that looks like the past? San Antonio: 410 Expansion
  18. 20. WA: Alaskan Way Viaduct Tunnel Do these projects still have value in a future defined by peak oil and climate change? San Antonio: 410 Expansion
  19. 21. WA: Alaskan Way Viaduct Tunnel Will they become stranded assets? Are they diverting resources from more important projects? San Antonio: 410 Expansion
  20. 22. Will they become stranded assets? Are they diverting resources from more important projects?
  21. 23. Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change
  22. 24. Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by increasing prices) B.A.U. (Population and economic growth) Today Oil Depletion Scenario: Conventional Oil Available to U.S. Consumers Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change
  23. 25. Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by increasing prices) B.A.U. (Population and economic growth) Today Total miles driven using oil-based diesel fuel Example: Freight Truck Miles Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change
  24. 26. Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by increasing prices) B.A.U. (Population and economic growth) Today Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change
  25. 27. Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by increasing prices) B.A.U. (Population and economic growth) Today Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change Tar Sands, Shale, Coal Liquids Etc.
  26. 28. Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by increasing prices) B.A.U. (Population and economic growth) Today Total Transportation Capacity Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change
  27. 29. Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by increasing prices) B.A.U. (Population and economic growth) Today Required Road Capacity: Peak Roads? Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change
  28. 30. Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by increasing prices) B.A.U. (Population and economic growth) Today Local Population Growth Scenario: including migration driven by peak oil and climate change Population Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change
  29. 31. Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by increasing prices) B.A.U. (Population and economic growth) Today Mobility Shortage vs. Today’s Standards Population Widening Mobility Gap Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change
  30. 34. <ul><li>Concern for climate change is critical, </li></ul><ul><li>but what really drives change ‘at scale’? </li></ul><ul><li>Price Spikes </li></ul><ul><li>Recession </li></ul><ul><li>Rationing </li></ul><ul><li>Shortages </li></ul>
  31. 35. <ul><li>Price Spikes </li></ul><ul><li>Recession </li></ul><ul><li>Rationing </li></ul><ul><li>Shortages </li></ul><ul><li>= Transition Shocks </li></ul>
  32. 36. Is this an investment that has value in a post-oil world? Does it contribute to a resilient transportation system? <ul><li>Price Spikes </li></ul><ul><li>Recession </li></ul><ul><li>Rationing </li></ul><ul><li>Shortages </li></ul><ul><li>= Transition Shocks </li></ul>
  33. 37. The Dynamic City = ‘Sustainable’ + Resilient
  34. 38. Planning Dynamic Cities: <ul><li>Throw away your extrapolated forecasts </li></ul><ul><li>Get your team up to speed on peak oil and climate change </li></ul><ul><li>Create a Transition Scenario for your region / organization (Bundle together multiple assumptions) </li></ul><ul><li>‘ Stress Test’ Projects </li></ul><ul><li>- Test your project’s value across multiple scenarios </li></ul><ul><li>- Test your technology and funding through transition shocks </li></ul><ul><li>5. Start talking about the ‘Resilient Post-Carbon Economy’ </li></ul><ul><li>- Prioritize projects reducing emissions and oil dependence </li></ul><ul><li>- New low carbon trade links within the Cascadia mega-region </li></ul><ul><li>- Plan as if we’re at ‘peak roads’ </li></ul>
  35. 39. Investing in electrified rail (skytrain, streetcars, freight rail)
  36. 40. Bike Lanes: Facilitating ‘Post-Carbon’ Consumer and Employee Mobility
  37. 41. ‘ Net Positive’ Business As the business grows, regional oil consumption goes down
  38. 42. ‘ Post Carbon’ Goods Movement
  39. 43. ‘ Post Carbon’ Goods Movement All electric goods movement Rail to Electric cross docking (False Creek Flats)
  40. 44. ‘ Eco-density’ Laneway Housing
  41. 45. Bryn Davidson B.Eng. M.Arch. LEED-AP [email_address] 604.728.0606
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