Peaking Oil, Climate Change & Resilient Economies

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At the intersection of climate change and a world with peaking oil production is an opportunity to focus on strategies that reduce both emissions and oil dependence. These strategies can contribute to a healthier region, but also help to create more resilient businesses, infrastructures, and a more resilient regional economy.

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Peaking Oil, Climate Change & Resilient Economies

  1. 1. Planning for Peak Oil and Climate Change Bryn Davidson B.Eng. M.Arch. LEED-AP Building Sustainability & Resiliency Into Your Business
  2. 2. Creating cities and businesses that are both sustainable and resilient
  3. 3. Creating cities and businesses that are both sustainable and resilient
  4. 4. Long Term 1 2 Short Term Creating cities and businesses that are both sustainable and resilient
  5. 5. Resilient investments retain their value in multiple futures 1 2 Resilient systems bounce back from shocks, …and use shocks as a catalyst for positive change Creating cities and businesses that are both sustainable and resilient
  6. 6. Resilient investments retain their value in multiple futures 1 2 Understanding Peak Oil & Climate Change Scenarios! Resilient systems bounce back from shocks, …and use shocks as a catalyst for positive change Creating cities and businesses that are both sustainable and resilient
  7. 7. 1 Understanding Peak Oil
  8. 8. US Domestic Oil Production 1 Understanding Peak Oil
  9. 9. 1 Understanding Peak Oil – Future Scenarios
  10. 10. 1 Understanding Peak Oil – Future Scenarios …………………Today
  11. 11. Crude oil plateau 2005 – 2012… 1 In many plausible scenarios we could face a rapid decline in available oil Understanding Peak Oil – Future Scenarios
  12. 12. 1 Understanding Peak Oil - Scenario Planning
  13. 13. 1 Understanding Peak Oil - Scenario Planning Do your long term projects retain their value in a future shaped by peak oil and climate change impacts?
  14. 14. 1 Understanding Peak Oil - Scenario Planning WA: Alaskan Way Viaduct Tunnel BC: ‘Gateway’ Highway Expansions Do these projects retain their value in a future shaped by peak oil and climate change impacts?
  15. 15. 1 Understanding Peak Oil - Scenario Planning Why are we only planning for a future that is just like the past?
  16. 16. 1 Peak Oil Literacy & Scenario Planning Why are we only planning for a future that is just like the past? Forecast Reality
  17. 17. 1 Understanding Peak Oil - Scenario Planning 2006 2011
  18. 18. 1 2 Resilient systems bounce back from shocks, …and use shocks as a catalyst for positive change Resilient investments retain their value in multiple futures Creating cities and businesses that are both sustainable and resilient
  19. 19. Plan for transient shocks! 1 2 Resilient systems bounce back from shocks, …and use shocks as a catalyst for positive change Resilient investments retain their value in multiple futures Creating cities and businesses that are both sustainable and resilient
  20. 20. 2 Plan for transient shocks
  21. 21. 2 Plan for transient shocks US Domestic Oil Production
  22. 22. 2 Plan for transient shocks
  23. 23. “Lesley Hopson used to ride to work in a Cadillac Escalade. Then her twice weekly trips to the gas station started to cost $90 each. Now, she's taking the 851 SMART transit bus from her home in the suburbs to work in downtown Detroit. „Gas hit my maximum,‟ she says.” 2 Plan for transient shocks & rapid changes
  24. 24. 2 Plan for transient shocks & rapid changes
  25. 25. Concern for the environment & climate change is critical… …but what really drives change ‘at scale’? - Price Spikes - Recession - Rationing - Shortages 2 Plan for transient shocks & rapid changes
  26. 26. 4 ‘Transition’ Shocks from the combined impacts of peak oil and climate change: - Price Spikes - Recession - Rationing - Shortages 2 Plan for transient shocks & rapid changes
  27. 27. Resilient investments retain their value in multiple futures 1 2 Resilient systems bounce back from shocks, …and use shocks as a catalyst for positive change Creating cities and businesses that are both sustainable and resilient How can we create a resilient post-carbon economy? 3
  28. 28. Peak Oil Climate Change The resilient post-carbon economy Reducing both Oil Dependence and Emissions
  29. 29. Peak Oil Climate Change The resilient post-carbon economy Reducing both Oil Dependence and Emissions Truck running on local natural gas from land- fills
  30. 30. Support regional investments in electrified rail (skytrain, streetcars, freight rail) How can we create a resilient post-carbon economy? 3
  31. 31. Support electric mobility for individuals & families. Move employees and customers without oil. How can we create a resilient post-carbon economy? 3
  32. 32. ‘Post Carbon’ Goods Movement How can we create a resilient post-carbon economy? 3
  33. 33. Support Bike Lanes & Pedestrian Amenities: Not just for health and the environment… A cost effective way to facilitate ‘Post-Carbon’ consumer and employee mobility How can we create a resilient post-carbon economy? 3
  34. 34. New Opportunities New businesses niches can develop in response to shocks & rapidly changing consumer demands How can we create a resilient post-carbon economy? 3
  35. 35. Create businesses - and a regional economy - that can function during an oil shock. How can we create a resilient post-carbon economy? 3 Houston (late 20th c.) Vancouver Region, 2010 Olympics
  36. 36. Support ‘Eco-density’ & Infill Housing Give people the ability to live and work with less oil (and less carbon). How can we create a resilient post-carbon economy? 3
  37. 37. Invest with an eye to multiple futures ….including peak oil and climate change1 2 Prepare for the shocks that we‟re likely to see, …and use shocks as a catalyst for positive change Creating cities and businesses that are both sustainable and resilient Help create a resilient post-carbon economy … good bets reduce both emissions and oil dependence3
  38. 38. Bryn Davidson B.Eng. M.Arch. LEED-AP bryn@dynamiccities.org 604.728.0606

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