Brussels Briefing n. 30 Agricultural Resilience in the Face of Crises and Shocks                      4th March 2013      ...
Drought Tolerant Maize and Copingwith Agricultural Risk in Sub-Saharan                Africa Girma T. Kassie, Tsedeke Abat...
Agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa                (SSA)• Inherently vulnerable and risk  prone                             ...
Agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa• The most important downside risk:   – production risk manifested through     unpredicta...
Drought risk             Nature Climate Change (2011) 1, 42-45.        For every degree day above 30 C, yield is      redu...
What does the future hold? Maximum temperature changes - 2050     Annual rainfall differences (%)-2050      Tmax differenc...
Potential contribution of improved                   technologies• Improved varieties and management  options have offset ...
What are CIMMYT and partners doing?• Drought Tolerant Maize for Africa  – initiated in 2006 in 13 countries• Progress to d...
Facilitating farmers access to        improved varieties          80                                                      ...
Expected benefits of drought tolerant maize• Benefits estimated in terms of economic gains from  increasing maize yields a...
Household level drought risk management• Risk management is part of regular farm management  activities of farmers   – man...
Land allocation to crops under different levels of drought                          stress                      Less stres...
Land allocation vis-à-vis risk expectation in                        Malawi                              Yield <   Yield >...
Land allocation vis-à-vis risk expectation in                       Zambia                               Yield <   Yield >...
Conclusions• Drought and the negative risk associated with it will always be a  bottleneck to maize production, particular...
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30thBrussels Briefing on Agricultural Resilience - 7. Girma Tesfahun Kassie: Drought-resilient crops and resilience systems of benefit to small-scale farmers

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Presentation hold by Girma Tesfahun Kassie, Researcher Socioeconomics Programme at CIMMYT, Zimbabwe, as part of the second panel of the 30th edition of the Brussels Briefing on “Agricultural resilience in the face of crisis and shocks", organized by CTA in collaboration with the ACP Secretariat, the EC/DEVCO, Concord, and IFPRI on 4th March 2013.
More on: http://brusselsbriefings.net/

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  • Large proportion of maize farmers in SSA face a high probability of drought each year, this is particularly true for farmers in southern Africa where the risk of a failed season due to drought is 40%Furthermore, a recent study in maize in SSA highlighted that when drought stress coincides higher temperatures yield loss is much greater.
  • 30thBrussels Briefing on Agricultural Resilience - 7. Girma Tesfahun Kassie: Drought-resilient crops and resilience systems of benefit to small-scale farmers

    1. 1. Brussels Briefing n. 30 Agricultural Resilience in the Face of Crises and Shocks 4th March 2013 http://brusselsbriefings.netDrought-resilient crops and resilience systems of benefit to small-scale farmersGirmaTesfahun Kassie, Researcher, Socioeconomic Programme, CIMMYT, Zimbabwe
    2. 2. Drought Tolerant Maize and Copingwith Agricultural Risk in Sub-Saharan Africa Girma T. Kassie, Tsedeke Abate, Jill E Cairns, Kai Sonder, Bekele Shiferaw
    3. 3. Agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)• Inherently vulnerable and risk prone Number of poor (<2 USD d-1) in maize growing areas• Downside risk rural communities face emanates from both expected and unexpected deviations from the norm in one or more of – environmental factors, – institutions and policies, and – individual or group level circumstances.
    4. 4. Agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa• The most important downside risk: – production risk manifested through unpredictably variable agricultural yield• This risk is enormously enhanced in SSA due to the uncertainty surrounding rainfall in terms of – frequency – temporal and spatial distribution – intensity of drought
    5. 5. Drought risk Nature Climate Change (2011) 1, 42-45. For every degree day above 30 C, yield is reduced by 1.7 % under drought (compared to 1% under optimal conditions)
    6. 6. What does the future hold? Maximum temperature changes - 2050 Annual rainfall differences (%)-2050 Tmax difference (oC) (19 GCMs, A2 scenario)Advances in Agronomy (2012) 144, 1-58
    7. 7. Potential contribution of improved technologies• Improved varieties and management options have offset yield losses by ~40%.• Drought and heat tolerant maize varieties will play a fundamental role.• Drought tolerance maize is of enormous global importance, which virtually no crop or farmer in the world can afford to be without. Nature Review Genetics 2,815-822
    8. 8. What are CIMMYT and partners doing?• Drought Tolerant Maize for Africa – initiated in 2006 in 13 countries• Progress to date Hybrids OPVs Commercial – 55 drought tolerant hybrids and 54 drought tolerant OPV maize varieties released Performance of new varieties in farmers’ fields relative to most popular maize varieties in Southern Africa
    9. 9. Facilitating farmers access to improved varieties 80 70 70 60 551000 MT 50 41 40 29 30 19 20 9 10 1 3 0 2013 2009 2014 2015 2010 2016 2011 2012 Seed production of improved maize varieties
    10. 10. Expected benefits of drought tolerant maize• Benefits estimated in terms of economic gains from increasing maize yields and the economic benefits from reduced year-to-year variability in yields• 532 – 870 M USD• 100% replacement of old varieties with drought tolerance maize would increase income by 0.9 – 1.5 billion USD (with most of the benefit in Kenya, Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe)• Largest gains accrue in the 0-20% PFS zones• Risk benefits important part of total (up to 30%)• Highest poverty reduction in Zimbabwe, Malawi and Nigeria (more than 4 M people out of poverty)• 95% return in 8-9 main countries (especially Nigeria, Kenya and Malawi)
    11. 11. Household level drought risk management• Risk management is part of regular farm management activities of farmers – manifested through selection of enterprises and allocation of their resources.• The way farmers choose their enterprises and allocate their resources explain the intricacies of risk perception and risk efficient farm management.• Comprehensive understanding of risk perceptions and the resultant decisions is crucially important.• Examples of resource allocations based on expectations:
    12. 12. Land allocation to crops under different levels of drought stress Less stressed Highly stressed Optimal Drought Optimal DroughtCrop stress stressMaize 6.16 2.61 5.51 7.50Sorghum 37.60 21.67 72.70 38.30Tef 22.95 28.72 12.56 30.00Chickpea 2.51 13.84 4.30 11.70Haricot bean - - 4.93 12.50Lentil 4.93 8.88 - -Faba bean 4.72 3.39 - -Field pea 5.75 6.40 - -Wheat 7.18 4.44 - -Barley 3.65 3.26 12Emmer wheat 4.54 6.79
    13. 13. Land allocation vis-à-vis risk expectation in Malawi Yield < Yield > Fertilizer Fertiliser CreditMaize type Decision normal normal accessible inaccessible accessibleLocal variety Decrease area 1.34 0.67 0 12.08 0 Same area 57.7 63.76 34.23 79.87 42.28 Increase area 40.3 35.57 65.77 8.05 57.72 N 149 149 149 149 149OPV Decrease area 0 2.27 0 15.91 0 Same area 31.8 59.09 27.27 70.45 27.27 Increase area 68.2 38.64 72.73 13.64 72.73 N 44 44 44 44 44Hybrid Decrease area 8.62 0 1.72 24.14 1.72 Same area 51.7 51.72 22.41 67.24 27.59 Increase area 39.7 48.28 75.86 8.62 70.69 N 58 58 58 58 58
    14. 14. Land allocation vis-à-vis risk expectation in Zambia Yield < Yield > Fertilizer Fertiliser CreditMaize type Decision normal normal accessible inaccessible accessibleLocal variety Decrease area 50.6 0.6 3 35.2 0.6 Same area 34.3 18.5 11.6 62.7 25.7 Increase area 10 79.7 85.1 1.8 72.8 N 335 335 335 335 335OPV Decrease area 69.3 0.6 4.1 76.3 0.9 Same area 18.7 9.5 7 13.3 15.5 Increase area 10.8 88.3 88 9.2 81.6 N 316 316 316 316 316Hybrid Decrease area 65.1 0.9 7.8 75.2 1.5 Same area 21.2 9 1.8 14.3 12.8 Increase area 12.5 89 90.1 10.1 84.8 N 335 335 335 335 335
    15. 15. Conclusions• Drought and the negative risk associated with it will always be a bottleneck to maize production, particularly in SSA.• Drought is unavoidable - the focus shall be on adapting to the patterns in moisture level and coping mechanisms for erratic scenarios.• In designing and implementing interventions that aim at contributing to the risk coping ability of farmers, it is essential to take into account heterogeneity within the farming communities.• Drought tolerant maize varieties are being developed and would play a key role in enhancing the resilience smallholder farmers in SSA.• Research so far has shown yield gains are being made in maize on farmers’ fields in SSA. • That is a good news!
    16. 16. THANK YOU SO MUCH!

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