Brussels Briefing n. 30Agricultural Resilience in the Face of Crises and Shocks                     4th March 2013        ...
Enhancing Resilience in the Horn           of Africa                  CTA Brussels Briefing                 Brussels, Marc...
Lack of resilience in the Horn?(+) Traditional coping strategies (e.g. mobility)(+) Livestock sector is a source of curren...
Vicious cycle of violence?Violence in Somalia, 1997-2009                           Estimated food security conditions,    ...
Vicious cycle in SomaliaSource: Maystadt, Ecker and Mabiso (2013) Extreme weather and civil war in Somalia: DoesDrought Fu...
Vicious cycle in Somalia (and Sudan)                                            TDI3             Cattle price        Chang...
Enhancing resilience through a balanced development strategy Investment in pastoralist activities:      Improved livesto...
Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Nets Programme                               (PSNP)• Between 1993 and 2004, the Government of...
Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Nets Programme                               (PSNP)• PSNP began operating in 2005 (until 2014...
Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Nets Programme:                                       Impact on food security                ...
Building resilience:       Change in food security for households experiencing 2+                              droughtsSou...
Building resilience:   Change in livestock for households experiencing 2+ droughtsSource: Hoddinott J., A.S. Taffesse and ...
Building resilience at the household level      Change in food security                           Change in livestockSourc...
Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Nets Programme:• Builds resilience at:   – Government and governance   – Natural resource man...
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30thBrussels Briefing on Agricultural Resilience- 5. Jean-François Maystadt: Enhancing resilience in the Horn of Africa

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Presentation hold by Jean-François Maystadt, Researcher at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), as part of the second panel of the 30th edition of the Brussels Briefing on “Agricultural resilience in the face of crisis and shocks", organized by CTA in collaboration with the ACP Secretariat, the EC/DEVCO, Concord, and IFPRI on 4th March 2013.
More on: http://brusselsbriefings.net/

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30thBrussels Briefing on Agricultural Resilience- 5. Jean-François Maystadt: Enhancing resilience in the Horn of Africa

  1. 1. Brussels Briefing n. 30Agricultural Resilience in the Face of Crises and Shocks 4th March 2013 http://brusselsbriefings.net Enhancing resilience in the Horn of Africa Jean-Francois Maystadt, Researcher, IFPRI
  2. 2. Enhancing Resilience in the Horn of Africa CTA Brussels Briefing Brussels, March 4, 2013 Jean-François Maystadt International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) Center for Institutions and Economic Performance (LICOS)
  3. 3. Lack of resilience in the Horn?(+) Traditional coping strategies (e.g. mobility)(+) Livestock sector is a source of current wealth and a sector with potentialadded value (e.g. exports to the Middle East)(-) More severe and frequent shocks and stress (on limited amount of water)(-) Restricted mobility due to a mix of population growth, fragmentation ofgrazing lands and insecurity(-) Conflict, poor governance , price volatility and lack of long-term donorcommitment(-) Pastoralist populations in ASAL regions often politically and economicallyneglected in terms of public investment2011 drought: Relief efforts have saved lifes but have not sufficientlyincreased the capacity to withstand future shocks and stressesSource: Headey, L. You, and A.S. Taffesse (2012) Enhancing resilience in the Horn of Africa. IFPRIDP. Forthcoming in World Development.
  4. 4. Vicious cycle of violence?Violence in Somalia, 1997-2009 Estimated food security conditions, 9/2011Source: Maystadt et al. (2013), based on ACLED (2012). Source: DFID(2012).
  5. 5. Vicious cycle in SomaliaSource: Maystadt, Ecker and Mabiso (2013) Extreme weather and civil war in Somalia: DoesDrought Fuel Conflict through Livestock Price Shocks . IFPRI Discussion Paper, forthcoming.
  6. 6. Vicious cycle in Somalia (and Sudan) TDI3 Cattle price Change in numberScenario change change of conflicts Percent Percent Number PercentIncrease of TDI3 by one standard 32.6 –4.3 0.52 37.4deviationIncrease of TDI3 by temperature rise 49.0 –6.8 0.80 58.3according to IPCC A1B scenario • Droughts fuel civil conflicts in Somalia • Specific channel: drought-induced economic shocks on the livestock sector and resulting income changes • Link between extreme weather shocks and violence also found in North and South Sudan (work in progress) • … Risk of violence is likely to magnify in the future … • Unless urgent action to enhance resilience to shocks is taken Source: Maystadt, , Ecker and Mabiso (2013) Extreme weather and civil war in Somalia: Does Drought Fuel Conflict through Livestock Price Shocks. IFPRI Discussion Paper, forthcoming.
  7. 7. Enhancing resilience through a balanced development strategy Investment in pastoralist activities:  Improved livestock resilience to drought: adoption of drought-resistant animals, veterinary health services, emergency feed, and better access to water but without disturbing the (well-functing) livestock value chain  Help de-stocking and re-stocking through improved access to markets, insurance and credit markets, weather insurance schemes Support income diversification: Irrigation, Migration and Education Social Safety Net Program? What can we learn from Safety Net Programmes to enhance resilience in the Horn of Africa?Source: Headey, L. You, and A.S. Taffesse (2012) Enhancing resilience in the Horn of Africa. IFPRI DP.Forthcoming in World Development
  8. 8. Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Nets Programme (PSNP)• Between 1993 and 2004, the Government of Ethiopia launched near- annual emergency appeals for food aid and other forms of emergency assistance.• These succeeded in averting mass starvation but: – They did not banish the threat of further famine; – They did not prevent asset depletion; and – The ad hoc nature of these responses meant that the provision of emergency assistance—often in the form of food-for-work programmes—was not integrated into ongoing economic development activities.• In other words, these responses did not build resilience
  9. 9. Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Nets Programme (PSNP)• PSNP began operating in 2005 (until 2014) – Reaches approximately one million households; 7 million people annually – EU is a major donor along with the USAID, World Bank, DfID, and a number of other countries• The PSNP “provides transfers to the food insecure population in chronically food insecure woredas in a way that prevents asset depletion at the household level and creates assets at the community level” – It provides recipient with public works – It also seeks to stimulate market development and rehabilitate the natural environment• The PSNP is complemented by a program (now) called the “Household Asset Building Programme” (HABP) – Increased contact and coordination with agricultural extension services – Improved access to credit
  10. 10. Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Nets Programme: Impact on food security 1 .2 .4 .6 .8 0 -.6 -.4 -.2 1 2 3 4 5 Years receiving payments for PSNP Public Works Dose Response Low bound Upper bound Confidence Bounds at .95 % levelSource: Hoddinott J., A.S. Taffesse and others (2012)
  11. 11. Building resilience: Change in food security for households experiencing 2+ droughtsSource: Hoddinott J., A.S. Taffesse and others (2012)
  12. 12. Building resilience: Change in livestock for households experiencing 2+ droughtsSource: Hoddinott J., A.S. Taffesse and others (2012)
  13. 13. Building resilience at the household level Change in food security Change in livestockSource: Hoddinott J., A.S. Taffesse and others (2012)
  14. 14. Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Nets Programme:• Builds resilience at: – Government and governance – Natural resource management – Household• Impacts are larger when combined with the HABP. Why? – Transfers provide both a safety net and working capital – HABP provides technical expertise

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