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30thBrussels Briefing on Agricultural Resilience- 1. Sir Gordon Conway: What we know and what we need to know
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30thBrussels Briefing on Agricultural Resilience- 1. Sir Gordon Conway: What we know and what we need to know

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Presentation hold by Sir Gordon Conway, Professor of International Development, Imperial College London, as part of the first panel of the 30th edition of the Brussels Briefing on “Agricultural …

Presentation hold by Sir Gordon Conway, Professor of International Development, Imperial College London, as part of the first panel of the 30th edition of the Brussels Briefing on “Agricultural resilience in the face of crisis and shocks", organized by CTA in collaboration with the ACP Secretariat, the EC/DEVCO, Concord, and IFPRI on 4th March 2013.
More on: http://brusselsbriefings.net/

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  • The answer is YES CAN because I am an Optimist BUT it is a qualified yes IT IS A TALL ORDER
  • AFRICAN AGRICULTURE IS ALREADY SUFFERINGI WAS IN NORTHERN GHANA A YEAR AGO – THE RAINS CAME A MONTH EARLY AND STOPPED A MONTH EARLY
  • EVEN MORE SERIOUS IS THE EFFECT OF EXTREME EVENTSJAMES HANSEN HAS SHOWN THAT OVER THE PAST 60 YEARS MEAN TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ACCOMPANIED BY MORE FREQUENT HEAT WAVES
  • THESE EXTREMES TRIGGERED THE FOOD PRICE SPIKE OF 2010WE WERE AIMING FOR 2 DEGREES C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL LEVEL. MORE LIKELY TO BE 4 DEGREES – THIS COULD BE CATASTROPHICTHE EXTREMES ARE LIKELY TO BE EVEN MORE FREQUENT AND SEVERE
  • SO WHAT DO WE DO – INVEST IN APPROPRIATE INNOVATIONWE INNOVATE – NEW CROP VARIETIES AND LIVESTOCK BREED AND NEW WAYS OF GROWING AND HUSBANDING THEM THAT WILL HELP FEED THE WORLD BY 2050THE GREEN REVOLUTION TAUGHT US THE POWER OF INNOVATIONIT WAS ONE OF THE MOST SUCCESSFUL TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTIONS OF THE 21ST CENTURYBUT THERE WERE LIMITATIONSFOCUSED ON IDEAL ENVIRONMENTSOVER-RELIANT ON SYNTHETIC PESTICDES AND FERTILISERSONLY SOME OF THE POOR BENEFITEDPASSED AFRICA BY
  • THE CHALLENGE FOR INNOVATION IS THE CONCEPT OF SUSTAINABLE INTENSIFICATION
  • FERTILISERS ARE EXPENSIVE AND PRODUCE GHGSTHERE ARE SIMPLE SOLUTIONSPUT FERTILISER IN TOP OF SODA BOTTLE AND PLACE IN PLANTING HOLEBETTER YIELDS WITH LESS FERTILISER.EXAMPLE OF PRECISION FAMRING
  • THE ALTERNATIVE OR COMPLEMENTARY APPROACH IS TO FOCUS ON MODERN PLANT BREEDING BUILD WHAT FARMERS AND THE ENVIRONMENT NEEDS INTO THE SEEDTASKS ARE FORMIDABLE – BUT ACHIEVABLE
  • IN AFRICA, A THIRD OF PRESCHOOL-AGED CHILDREN ARE VITAMIN A DEFICIENT. MANY GO BLIND; MANY DIE.THE CRITICAL TIME IS WHEN A CHILD IS BEING WEANED. MOTHERS OFTEN USE RICE GRUEL OR MASHED UP SWEET POTATO. THIS PROVIDES CARBOHYDRATE AND SOME PROTEIN BUT LITTLE OR NO VITAMIN AOFSP HAS BEEN CONVENTIONALLY BRED TO CONTAIN HIGH QUANTITIES OF BETA-CAROTENE – THE PRECURSOR OF VITAMIN A. IN UGANDA AND MOZAMBIQUE INTAKE DOUBLED WHEN FARMERS RECEIVED THE VINES AND GREW THEM.SOMETIMES THOUGH AS IN THE RICE GRAIN THE GENES ARE NOT PRESENT. HERE GENES HAVE BEEN TRANSFERRED FROM MAIZE TO PRODUCE GOLDEN RICE
  • IN SOME CASES WE WILL NEED NEW GENETICALLY MODIFIED VARIETIES
  • NO AMOUNT OF INNOVATION OR TECHNOLOGY WILL WORK WITHOUT GOOD MARKETSTHEY HAVE TO BE EFFICIENT, ACCESSIBLE AND FAIR
  • THIS IS A SCHEMATIC REPRESENTATION
  • APPROPRIATE INNOVATION AND FAIR AND EFFICIENT MARKETS ARE ESSENTIALBUT SUCCESS DEPENDS ON PEOPLE TO DRIVE AND EMBRACE THE CHANGES
  • Transcript

    • 1. Brussels Briefing n. 30Agricultural Resilience in the Face of Crises and Shocks 4th March 2013 http://brusselsbriefings.netAgricultural resilience -- what do we know and what do we need to know Sir Gordon Conway, Imperial College London
    • 2. Agricultural resilience -- what do weknow and what do we need to know Sir Gordon Conway, Professor of International Development Agriculture for Impact, Imperial College, London European Economic and Social Committee, Brussels, March 4, 2013
    • 3.  Rising sea and land temperatures Three Drivers:  Tropical convection  The Monsoons  El Niño – La Niña Oscillation
    • 4. El Niño La Niñahttp://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/
    • 5. Gradual build-up of adverse events• Pest and disease attack• Land degradation• Growing pollution• Increasing temperatures• Rising sea levels• Greater or lesser rainfall• Growing indebtedness
    • 6. UNDP Human Development Report, 2006
    • 7. Average Annual Max Temp > 300C By 2050Ericksen et al Mapping hotspots of climate change and food insecurity in the global tropics
    • 8. Usually dramatic, largely unexpected events• Locust outbreaks• Disease outbreaks• Sudden floods• Major drought• Cyclones• Earthquakes• Tsunamis
    • 9. Hansen et al, 2012, NASA
    • 10. Russia Severe heatwave in 2010 Doubled Moscow’s death rate 30% of grain crops lost to burningPakistan Worst floods in 80 years Killed over 1600 people Submerged 1/5th of the country, including 14% of Pakistan’s cultivated land
    • 11.  Increased yields or production  On the same amount of land  With less water  Less fertilisers  Less pesticides  Lower emissions of Greenhouse GasesIncreased natural capitaland environmental services Greater resilience
    • 12.  Use ecological principles to design agricultural practices e.g.  Agroforestry  Integrated Pest  Management  Organic farming
    • 13.  Plants more nutritious  carbohydrate and protein  micronutrients (Vit A, iron, zinc) Plants more resilient to  pests and diseases  climate change Plants more efficient at  converting sunlight to food  taking up nitrogen from the atmosphere  using water
    • 14.  $500 million losses a year in Uganda Academia Sinica provided sweet potato gene Successfully transferred to bananas In Ugandan field trials Entirely government funded
    • 15.  Genes from Bacterial RNA that help to repair misfolded proteins resulting from stress Plants rapidly recover No yield penalty when stress free In African field trials
    • 16. National trade Rural Economy Seed Co Connectivity Fertiliser Co Local trader Agrodealer Farm Household in the local community Banks forRegional trade microcredit Model of Alliance for a Green Revolution for Africa (AGRA)
    • 17. Increasingly frequent and severe droughts, floods, and storms Fertile lowlands good crops but can be destroyed during flood Highlands good crops of maize and cassava during flood years, but less productive otherwiseEduardo Mondlanehttp://www.geog.ox.ac.uk/research/landscape/projects/adaptiv...
    • 18. Thank YouConway, G. ‘One Billion Hungry: Can we feed the world?’ www.canwefeedtheworld.org Follow us on twitter: #1billionhungry For more info on Ag4Impact, go to: www.ag4impact.org Contact: g.conway@imperial.ac.uk