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Mooc digital artifact - Impact of Climate Change for the Forest Products Industry

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World Bank Massive Open Online Course Digital Artifact for "Turn down the heat: Why a 4 degree warmer world must be avoided." Focus is on the role of forests and forest based products in a low carbon …

World Bank Massive Open Online Course Digital Artifact for "Turn down the heat: Why a 4 degree warmer world must be avoided." Focus is on the role of forests and forest based products in a low carbon economy. Only with long-term, landscape level thinking can the forest-baed ecosystems and rich biodiversity found within be protected for future generations and effectively help to keep the world from heating up 4 degrees by 2100.

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  • 1. Impacts of Climate Change for the Forest Products Industry By Susan Brunner February 19, 2014 1
  • 2. Global Context Sustainable forest management plays a vital role in mitigating climate change risks and reducing societal green house gas emissions. It is essential to meet future fibre demand and to conserve ecosystems & biodiversity. Page 2
  • 3. What are ecosystem services? FOOD FRESH WATER WOOD AND FIBRE FUEL CLIMATE FLOOD DISEASE WATER PURIFICATION AESTHETIC SPIRITUAL EDUCATIONAL RECREATIONAL NUTRIENT CYCLING SOIL FORMATION PRIMARY PRODUCTION e.g. photosynthesis Page 3
  • 4. The Ecosystem Landscape Page 4
  • 5. Forests Facts Trends • Forest cover 1/3 of the world‘s land surface • Sustainable forest management & wood procurement programs continue to grow • Carbon stocks are • Planted forests tend to be more productive than natural forests; thereby better able to meet rising demand • Net forest area continues to due to ongoing deforestation • Planted forest area is growing rapidly • Approx. 10% of the global forests are certified • Forest cover stable in top producing countries; deforestation -primarily due to land conversion for agriculture - is still rampant in some parts of the world. Sources: wbcsd Forest Solutions, September 2012; UNECE/FAO Forest Products Annual Market Review, 2010-2011 PAGE 5
  • 6. Forest Products / Paper Facts • Nearly 42% of the global wood harvest for industrial purposes is used to make paper. • Export ratio of 25%-30% of global wood products and paper manufacturing output from the country of origin • Harvesting of industrial roundwood has been stable despite increasing production of paper products due to increasing usage of recovered fibre Source: wbcsd Forest solutions, September 2012; * source: CEPI Key Statistics 2011, p21. Trends • There is increased competition for forest biomass, particularly for energy production • Global production and use of recovered paper has been increasing drastically in last two decades • European paper recycling rate of 70.4% in 2011* PAGE 6
  • 7. Energy & Climate Change Facts • The world’s forests and forest soils currently store more than one trillion tonnes of carbon – twice the amount found free in the atmosphere* • Energy consumption by the FP industry = ca. 1.5 – 2% of global final energy use • Approx. 50% of energy needs by FP industry are supplied by biomass and it leads in using combined heat & power Trends • Net removals of carbon from the atmosphere attributable to carbon storage in forest products are significant • There is improving energy efficiency in the FP sector and recycling rates continue to increase • Energy needed to produce a metric ton of paper is 10-20% lower compared to 1990+ +Source: wbcsd forest solutions, September 2012; *Source: FAO = Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations PAGE 7
  • 8. Consequences for business? Businesses impact on ecosystems and ecosystem services Ecosystem change creates business risks and opportunities Businesses rely and depend on ecosystems and ecosystem services Page 8
  • 9. Consequences for business? € 1.35 trillion / year: minimum estimate of natural capital loss, just from deforestation  Approx total GDP of UK or France in 2010 Ecosystem change creates business risks and opportunities US$ 190 billion / year: contribution of insect pollination to agriculture output Approx. 8 times Walmart’s 2010 total operating income Page 9
  • 10. Biodiversity 80% terrestrial biodiversity found in forests Severe consequences of deforestation due to climate change include: GHG emissions, biodiversity loss and soil erosion, spread of diseases and more. 10
  • 11. Water scarcity Just 1% of the earth‘s water is fresh water. Supply More extreme droughts & floods in a 4o C warmer world expected Demand 11
  • 12. Water scarcity In a 2oC warmer world estimated sea level rise is roughly 79 cm above 1980-99 levels. In a 4oC scenario sea levels will rise nearly 1m by 2100, further endangering fresh water acquifers and inland sources of fresh water Source: MOOC Turn Down the Heat, World Bank, 2014 12
  • 13. Impacts of a 4oC warmer world on forests  Major heat and extreme weather events (drought/flooding)  More frequent extreme heat waves could result in yield losses and forest fires, which in turn release the carbon stored in the trees.  Ecosystems climate and water regulation, erosion prevention, and forest disease control services endangered  20 – 30% of plant and animal species are like to be at increased risk of extinction if global average temperatures increase more than 2-3oC above pre-industrial levels 13
  • 14. For the sceptics…. http://www.skepticalscience.com/ Page 14