David Smith Global Futures and Foresight Ihmcbrunei 2010
You Marketing Political Economic Market Financial Compliance Legal Environmental Social Technological Translate Futures thinking and insight into Strategy and Action Strategic Marketing Drivers of change Strategic Foresight
Tensions over water heightened by 2015, in Middle East, Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and Northern China
India uses up/pollutes groundwater by 2020
Bio-fuels compete with food for land/water.
One year of food or a tank of SUV fuel.
2 o C temperature increase means a 12% to 20% fall in global food production by 2100.
By 2050 we will be 9.6bn but eat like 13bn.
Global agriculture output must double in the next 30 years to sustain population growth.
World Bank estimates According to Stanford University and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory researchers Unabated climate change could cost the world 5% of GDP/year; if more dramatic predictions come to pass, the cost could be more than 20% of GDP. Warming of 5.2 o Celsius by 2100 American Meteorological Society’s Journal of Climate May 2009 .
Supply and Shortages - Water Red = Extreme Scarcity, Orange = Scarcity , Yellow = Stress ,, Blue = Abundant , Dark Blue = Surplus http://www.grailresearch.com/pdf/ContenPodsPdf/Water-The_India_Story.pdf 2009
We will see the concept of Islamic hospitality start to mature around 2010.
Muslims want to travel the way everybody else does.
Eg: It is about knowing that the food will be
Halal without having to ask.
For observant Muslims, everything will be comfortable and familiar, with no need to feel embarrassed about making special requests .“( Naseem Javed, president of US branding consultant ABC Namebank International)
Demand will be particularly strong from Gulf family groups.
US$ 3.76 Trillion investment by 2020 170 million Tourists by 2020 Capacity for 320 million extra passengers by 2012 Over 900 new hotels offering 750,000+ rooms by 2020 900+ new aircraft by 2027 Middle East Travel and Tourism
Crescentrating – Singapore based -caters to the Halal-conscious traveller.
Introduced its Shari'ah-compliant services.
Over 100 hotels are users.
3 in UAE,
4 in Qatar,
1 in Bahrain,
Hotels in China, Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore have also signed-up.
http://www.ameinfo.com/231843.html "We are seeing massive growth within this market segment and it was something we needed to be part of. To cater for demand, we have developed our very own rating system and website for travel based on a set of Halal-friendly criteria," Fazal Bahardeen, CEO and Member of the Board, Crescentrating.
In March 2010, Karim Saad launched halaltrip.com out of Vienna.
“ The roots of tourism aimed at Muslims
began not in the hospitality industry but
in the financial world”
Chiheb ben Mahmoud, the senior vice president Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels for the MENA region.
“ The idea was to provide investors with Sharia-compliant investment products in hospitality. There were those who wanted to invest in hospitality but did not feel comfortable because of the alcohol, as well as the general style of the product.”
Makkah to attract SR375 billion ($100 billion) in investment over the decade to 2018.
International investment, mainly from GCC, is already impacting the Holy City in the form of:
There is minimal collapse in visitor demand.
"Investors are looking for a safe haven and Makkah is as close as you can get to a recession proof-market. Makkah will always have Hajj season and Umrah season ," Imad Awad, Head of equity capital markets at NBD Investment Bank, The Weekly Mag.