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Bradley Rotter's Speech to Institution Investor Conference in NYC September 2009
 

Bradley Rotter's Speech to Institution Investor Conference in NYC September 2009

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Investing at the Peak of US Civilization:

Investing at the Peak of US Civilization:
The Update

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  • Almost unimaginable. The peak of a civilization happens every time and it is as natural as the tide going out. <br /> It is very difficult to see because the consequences are so great. There probably was not one Mesopotamian who thought he was at the peak of civilization.
  • Almost unimaginable. The peak of a civilization happens every time and it is as natural as the tide going out. <br /> It is very difficult to see because the consequences are so great. There probably was not one Mesopotamian who thought he was at the peak of civilization.
  • Almost unimaginable. The peak of a civilization happens every time and it is as natural as the tide going out. <br /> It is very difficult to see because the consequences are so great. There probably was not one Mesopotamian who thought he was at the peak of civilization.
  • THIS WAS THE LAST SLIDE BUT I DECIDED TO GET IT OUT OF THE WAY IN THE BEGINNING
  • I let me begin with my quick story. I grew up on a farm in Iowa which is a small state in the midwest. <br /> <br /> I started speculating in corn futures when I was 16. Not alot to do in Iowa.
  • I let me begin with my quick story. I grew up on a farm in Iowa which is a small state in the midwest. <br /> <br /> I started speculating in corn futures when I was 16. Not alot to do in Iowa.
  • Continued to trade when I was in the Army.
  • I chose the chicago business school becasue it was located at the center of
  • The pits were filled with grown men yelling, kicking shoving and shouting. It was GREAT. The Merc had just invented financial futures and that became my focus. <br /> With volumes rising slowly, I thought I had tim <br /> They were growing slowly, so I got a job trading bonds on Wall Street
  • I did the first electronic bond transaction with Cantor Fitzgerald while at EF Hutton (god rest their sole) <br /> trading govt bonds, nearly got fired for doing so
  • Financials were starting to grow and I came back to Chicago, this time to the Chicago Board of Trade. <br /> <br /> LONG BONDS WERE TRADING AT 14% THAT WAS THE ONLY TIME THAT I USED THE TERM &#x201C;CAREER TRADE&#x201D; <br /> <br /> <br /> I SOLD MY SEAT EARLY
  • I THOUGHT exchanges would go away removing the floor advantage.and so I moved to SF <br /> I was right but, as usual, I was early. At least that is what my girlfreind says.
  • AND A HOST OF PRIVATE EQUITY INVESTMENTS CENTERED AROUND TECHNOLOGY
  • AND A HOST OF PRIVATE EQUITY INVESTMENTS CENTERED AROUND TECHNOLOGY
  • I BEGAN DOING A LOT OF PRIVATE EQUITY AND BEGAN INVESTING IN THE INTERNET PRETTY MUCH AT THE BEGINNING
  • I BEGAN DOING A LOT OF PRIVATE EQUITY AND BEGAN INVESTING IN THE INTERNET PRETTY MUCH AT THE BEGINNING
  • AND FROM MY PERCH IN THE BAY AREA, I WAS INVESTING IN THE INTERNET <br /> <br /> and am best known for my continuous quotation that &#x201C;this internet thing is going to be big&#x201D;
  • BUT MY Primary Asset Class since 1982 <br /> I staked lots of traders and hedge fund managers as I had a good feel for the trading pool <br /> of talent in NY, Chicago and SF
  • BUT MY Primary Asset Class since 1982 <br /> I staked lots of traders and hedge fund managers as I had a good feel for the trading pool <br /> of talent in NY, Chicago and SF
  • Hedge Funds have been in the news again. <br /> <br /> Many Madoff investors thougth they were investing as beneficiarys of front running from <br /> market making activities and deserve to loose their investments, but I digress
  • Hedge Funds have been in the news again. <br /> <br /> Many Madoff investors thougth they were investing as beneficiarys of front running from <br /> market making activities and deserve to loose their investments, but I digress
  • The set of available returns were not worth the fees being charged to gather them and <br /> I was suspect of their liquidity
  • The set of available returns were not worth the fees being charged to gather them and <br /> I was suspect of their liquidity
  • The set of available returns were not worth the fees being charged to gather them and <br /> I was suspect of their liquidity
  • That was when I also was refining my forcast that this particular civiliazation was peaking. <br /> <br /> THIS IS OBVIOUSLY A MULTI FACTOR EQUATION BUT I THINK THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IS THE INTERNET
  • That was when I also was refining my forcast that this particular civiliazation was peaking. <br /> <br /> THIS IS OBVIOUSLY A MULTI FACTOR EQUATION BUT I THINK THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IS THE INTERNET
  • That was when I also was refining my forcast that this particular civiliazation was peaking. <br /> <br /> THIS IS OBVIOUSLY A MULTI FACTOR EQUATION BUT I THINK THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IS THE INTERNET
  • WOULDNT IT BE IRONIC IF OUR GREATEST GIFT TO THE PLANET WAS ALSO THE LYNCHPIN OF OUR DEMISE?
  • WOULDNT IT BE IRONIC IF OUR GREATEST GIFT TO THE PLANET WAS ALSO THE LYNCHPIN OF OUR DEMISE?
  • WOULDNT IT BE IRONIC IF OUR GREATEST GIFT TO THE PLANET WAS ALSO THE LYNCHPIN OF OUR DEMISE?
  • THE INTERNET ENABLES ARBITRAGE <br /> <br /> IDEAS, CURRENCY, IP, CAPITAL INVESTMENT, BUSINESS MODELS
  • THE INTERNET ENABLES ARBITRAGE <br /> <br /> IDEAS, CURRENCY, IP, CAPITAL INVESTMENT, BUSINESS MODELS
  • and arbitrage always has one out come, it narrows differenced <br /> <br /> FROM INTERNATIONS CURRENCY MARKTS TO CRAIGS LIST
  • and arbitrage always has one out come, it narrows differenced <br /> <br /> FROM INTERNATIONS CURRENCY MARKTS TO CRAIGS LIST
  • and arbitrage always has one out come, it narrows differenced <br /> <br /> FROM INTERNATIONS CURRENCY MARKTS TO CRAIGS LIST
  • The difference that is being narrowed, right in front of our eyes is our Standard of Living differential <br /> AND THAT IS HOW I MEASURE A CIVILIZATION <br /> <br /> There is reason to brace for a period worse than the thirties In the ir we had just begun mechanize farming and automate assembly lines. That made us the most efficient producer of nearly everything. <br /> The world was our oyster, cause we had a better business model.
  • The internet empowers our competitors. We are all to sanguine about the fact that we somehow have a lock on good ideas and innovation. We did in the past, but that was before the Net.
  • DID YOU SEE THE OLYMPICS? I was expecting the best, and I was speechless(Like you are wishing yo <br /> THERE ARE NOW MORE ENGLISH SPEAKING PEOPLE IN CHINA THAN HERE. In China, if you are one in a million their are 1300 people just like you. <br /> <br /> WHAT IF A MANAGED CAPITALISTIC SYSTEM IS MORE POTENT THAN OUR LAISEZ FAIRE CAPITALISTIC SYSTEM
  • CHINA DOES NOT HAVE SOMETHING WE HAVE A LOT OF R & D. They take it. <br /> ITS VERY HARD TO COMPETE WITH THAT MODEL
  • What I learned when visiting China is that they think in different scale than we do.
  • What if a managed capitalist system is better than ours. The Government is staffed with the best and the brightest (kind of like our Congress) CAN YOU IMAGINE ASKING 1 MILLION COLORADIANS TO MOVE SO WE COULD REALLY BUILD A REALLY BIG MINE
  • Trade between China and Africa is also expanding rapidly. Valued at only around $3 bn in 1995, total trade grew to an estimated $40 bn in 2005. Premier Wen stated during the summit that China hopes to increase that amount to $100 bn by 2010. CHINA IS IN THE PROCESS OF TAKING AFRICA. BRILLIANT CHINA HAS AN OVERPOPULATION, WHILE AFRICA HAS BEEN DECIMATED BY DISEASE AND WAR <br /> WHY NOT PUT YOUR POPULATION WHERE THEY CAN GUARD THE MINERALS <br /> They are gobbling up minerals all over the world, and perhaps you and I should be doing the same.d <br /> <br /> Bre between China and Africa is also expanding rapidly. Valued at only around $3 bn in 1995, total trade grew to an estimated $40 bn in 2005. Premier Wen stated during the summit that CCHINChina hopes to increase that amount to $100 bn by 2010.
  • THE SAME GUYS THAT CAUSED THE PROBLEM, ARE IN CHARGE OF FIXING THE PROBLEM <br /> <br /> GOVT SIMPLY NOT STRUCTURED TO MANAGE PRIVATE SECTOR
  • THE SAME GUYS THAT CAUSED THE PROBLEM, ARE IN CHARGE OF FIXING THE PROBLEM <br /> <br /> GOVT SIMPLY NOT STRUCTURED TO MANAGE PRIVATE SECTOR
  • US POSTAL SERVICE
  • Social Security
  • Fannie May
  • MEDICARE
  • Freddie Mac
  • Amtrak
  • Cash for clunkers <br /> American cars were crushed and Japanese cars were purchased
  • It was the GOVERNMENT that dictated that Fannie and Fred go subprime. This chart is the best visual of what knocked down the first finanical domino
  • This was the Aug headline in the <br /> <br /> COULD WE HAVE CHANGED THE INVESTMENT APPETITE FOR REAL ESTATE FOR A GENERATION?
  • ACCORDING TO DAVID WALKER, FORMER HEAD OF GOVT ACCOUNTABILITY OFFICE WE HAVE 56 TRILLION OF UNFUNDED LIABILITIES....IS A TRILLION ALOT? <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> LIKE HAVING A THIRD MORTGAGE EQUAL TO 10 TIMES YOU INCOME BUT YOU HAVE NO HOUSE TO LAY CLAIM TO <br /> <br /> Think of the impact that tax loss carry forwards are going to have on future capital gains tax revenue
  • This is the Org chart for the Democrats health plan <br /> <br /> When I began talking about the Peak, I was only analyzing the ominous bankruptcy of social security and medicaid. Now with the bailouts and the proposed healthcare plan, my enthusiasm erodes.
  • Washington has lost the concept of the value of a dollar, and it shant be long before the market does as well. <br /> The Global Community will be quick to embrace a new reserve currency which has unfair advantage.
  • I bought this on Ebay for 9.95 {Free shipping} in June. Today you can buy 10 of them for the same amount <br /> As I said I am always early <br /> <br /> annualised 22 million
  • Capital goes where it is wanted and protected. <br /> <br /> This was Switzerlands OLDEST bank said they are exiting the iron tax curtain of the US <br /> <br /> US has the third highest corp tax rate of the developing world
  • I surmise we are in the eye of the storm.
  • I BELEIVE IN TWO THINGS <br /> GRAVITY AND TAX CUTS <br /> AND I AM NOT SO SURE OF GRAVITY <br /> Our Govt is going the other way. While tax rates are going up, one must be circumspect buying us securities <br /> <br /> HOW MANY OF YOU ARE WORKING ON STARTING A NEW ENTERPRISE?
  • Against this backdrop, I submit a forcast. The SECOND REVOLUTION may have begun, AND IT WILL MOST CERTAINLY EMPOWER THE INTERNET AS THE DRIVER <br /> <br /> WE WILL TASTE ANARCHY
  • Its hard to forecast this event. But the internet makes it possible for a new party to rise up quickly from <br /> the disenchanted center
  • These events are going on in every state and include tens of thousands of folks.
  • in many ways, these tea parties more significant than the original event
  • The town halls are intense. And these protests are being made by a group that is normally <br /> pretty quite
  • l conevolution wil consist of many ees <br /> The left is even better organized
  • S.773 <br /> TSponsor: Sen Rockefeller, John D., IV [WV] (introduced 4/1/2009) o permit the president to seize temporary control of private-sector networks during a so-called cybersecurity emergency
  • WE ARE NOW FLYING WITH THE WIND AT OUR FACE, NOT AT OUR BACKS <br /> <br /> And we have less reaction time, because the INTERNET has changed the unit of time <br /> WE ARE NOW FLYING WITH THE WIND AT OUR FACE, NOT AT OUR BACKS <br /> Its getting harder and harder to make a easy living.
  • How many here have tranportable gold for an emergency? <br /> <br /> Its held its valley since discovery and last week was the strongest close ever for
  • The Seminal Event <br /> 911 was the most successful non nuclear attack in the history of mankind <br /> The only equal is the....Trojan Horse <br /> The resulting governmental expeniditures has had no equal <br /> and HS is a tax, it was the sand that was thrown into the gearbox
  • AND FROM MY PERCH IN THE BAY AREA, I WAS INVESTING IN THE INTERNET <br /> <br /> I am most quoted for my prediction the this internet thing is going to be big!
  • INVESTMENT IS THAT NON-CORRELATED AND PERHAPS NEGATIVELY CORRELATED TO OTHERE STUFF.
  • I Chair two homeland security companies. AirPatrol has superb wireless threat management <br /> and always organizations to locate and track the weapons (cell phone)
  • Halo is a system to prevent maritime assets against swarm attacks.
  • web war one has begun Apri
  • IT DOES NOT HAPPEN VERY OFTEN, BUT IT ALWAYS HAPPEN <br /> <br /> We should feel proud to have been part of the benevolent super power in history. <br /> The last land we took was Hawaii and we bot
  • THIS WAS THE LAST SLIDE BUT I DECIDED TO GET IT OUT OF THE WAY IN THE BEGINNING
  • GOOD NEWS IS THAT WE ARE AT THE PEAK OF CIVILIZATION, IT DOES NOT HAPPEN VERY OFTEN, BUT IT ALWAYS HAPPY <br /> <br /> WE ARE LUCKY TO EXPERIENCE, IF YOU CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE AND HELP US DO THIS GRACESSLY
  • i saw this on a bumper sticker in the silicon valley
  • THE INTERNET ENABLES ARBITRAGE <br /> <br /> IDEAS, CURRENCY, IP, CAPITAL INVESTMENT, BUSINESS MODELS
  • Because women are still paid less than men for the same work, they tend to be retained when men are laid off.&#xA0; A perverse advantage.&#xA0; For the first time ever this month women are expected to comprise half of the work force.
  • General Consensus is almost always wrong
  • Natural sources of carbon dioxide are more than 20 times greater than sources due to human activity4. <br /> &#xA0; <br /> Now consider the following facts: <br /> &#xA0; <br /> 1. Everyone agrees that there has been global cooling during the past decade and at the same time there has been no change in carbon dioxide levels <br /> 2. Very little of the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is due to human activity4. <br /> 3. Analyses of ice cores indicate that during an ice age 500 million years ago carbon dioxide levels were ten times higher than now14.
  • AND NOW THE WEAPONS ARE LETHAL <br /> WE MIGHT HAVE A PERIOD OF RELATIVE CALM AMONG STATE ACTORS BECAUSE NO ONE CAN AFFORD IT
  • people are not leaving the pool of continuing unemployment claims because they are getting new jobs; Rather, they are leaving because they have exhausted their benefits.
  • Nature Abohrs a Dominant Species
  • Caster Semen <br /> <br /> But an IAAF source was today quoted as saying: "There certainly is evidence now that Semenya is a hermaphrodite.
  • THEY USED TO SAY <br /> <br /> THEY DONT SAY THAT ANYMORE
  • Why is war the only common denominator in history? War is what usually brought down the <br /> great civilizations. This one was the sand that was thrown in the wheels of progress.

Bradley Rotter's Speech to Institution Investor Conference in NYC September 2009 Bradley Rotter's Speech to Institution Investor Conference in NYC September 2009 Presentation Transcript

  • BRADLEY ROTTER SPECULATOR brad@rotter.com
  • INVESTING AT THE PEAK OF US CIVILIZATION ? Sept 15, 2009 UPDATE
  • Iowa
  • US Military Academy
  • US Military Academy
  • U of CHICAGO
  • U of CHICAGO
  • Chicago Merc
  • Chicago Merc
  • Wall Street
  • Wall Street
  • Chicago Board of Trade
  • Chicago Board of Trade
  • Left Coast
  • Left Coast
  • Investment Partnerships 1982
  • HEDGE FUNDS
  • MARHedge “WHY I AM GETTING OUT OF HEDGE FUNDS” JULY 2006
  • “INVESTING AT THE PEAK OF US CIVILIZATION” MAY 2008
  • “INVESTING AT THE PEAK OF US CIVILIZATION” MAY 2008 UPDATE
  • THE INTERNET S
  • ARBITRAGE NARROWS DIFFERENCES
  • ALAS, OUR STANDARD OF LIVING DIFFERENTIAL IS NARROWING
  • LAST MOVER ADVANTAGE
  • THREE GORGES DAM
  • CHINA IS TAKING AFRICA
  • WHAT WORRIES ME MOST
  • Operating for 234 years
  • BROKE Operating for 234 years
  • Operating for 74 years
  • BROKE Operating for 74 years
  • Operating for 71 years
  • BROKE Operating for 71 years
  • Operating for 44 years
  • BROKE Operating for 44 years
  • Operating for 39 years
  • BROKE Operating for 39 years
  • Operating for 38 years
  • BROKE Operating for 38 years
  • Operating < 1 year
  • BROKE Operating < 1 year
  • “Your food stamps will be stopped effective March 1992 because we received notice that you passed away. May God bless you. You may reapply if there is a change in your circumstances." Dept of Social Services, Greenville , SC
  • “THE NEW AMERICAN DREAM...RENTING”
  • 56 TRILLION UNFUNDED LIABILITIES $438,OOO PER HOUSEHOLD
  • ORGANIZATIONAL CHART OF THE U.S. President HOUSE DEMOCRATS’ HEALTH PLAN Congress Institute of Medicine Nurse Education & Health & Human Veterans Training Treasury Dept. Defense Dept. Labor Dept. Services Dept Administration Health National Insurance Clinical Preventive Health Exchange Services Service Trust Fund Taskforce CMS Public Corps Individual Tax Return Information Health Health Workforce CER Benefits Trust National Center for Health Advisory Public Health Medicaid Corps Workforce Analysis Fund Committee Investment Fund NPDB Comparative Advisory Effectiveness Mandate: S-CHIP Research Ombuds- Health & Care Committee on Community Buy Health Workforce National Surgeon Commission man Centers Insurance & Evaluation HIPDB Coordinator for General Health IT Medicare CCER Advisory Taxes Panels Health Affordability Office of Civil Rights !"#$%" AHRQ Credits &' ($%)*( Office of Minority +,'&#-%*+&, Language Accountable Care Demonstration Health Program Organization Regulations, Mandates, State Center for Consumers Quality Federal Mandates for Website Design Health Agencies, state Health Information Exchanges Improvement Physician Low-Income Inspector National Quality Subsidy (families with 4x poverty level) ($%)*( .(&+.$/ General Priorities for Reporting Performance Initiative Mandate: %0-+,+/*#%*+&,12 Improvement Provide Private Insurance Reinsurance Insurers Health Program Cultural & Care Financial Disclosure Reports: Any Linguistic Providers BENEFIT Transfers between Competence Taxes Premiums HEALTH INSURANCE LEVELS Providers & Training Traditional Suppliers EXCHANGE Small Health Business Qualified Public Plan Ombudsman Tax Public Insurance Health Credits Health Health Care Goods & Services Benefit Employers Plans Plans Plan Special HIE Inspector General Source: Joint Economic Committee, Republican Staff Congressman Kevin Brady, Ranking House Republican Member
  • “UN wants new global currency to replace dollar” Sept 9, 2009
  • CAPITAL GOES WHERE IT IS TREATED BEST WALTER WRISTON Weglin & Co, (1741) Flees “US IRON TAX CURTAIN” Sep 6, 2009
  • I BELIEVE IN TWO THINGS THINGS GRAVITY TAX CUTS
  • I BELIEVE IN TWO THINGS THINGS TAX CUTS
  • One if by Two if by
  • One if by Two if by
  • SB 773 o permit the president to Allows the Presidentcontrol of seize temporary to seize temporary control private-sector networks during a so-called of private emergency sector netwoks
  • SB 773 o permit the president to Allows the Presidentcontrol of seize temporary to seize temporary control private-sector networks during a so-called of private emergency sector netwoks what is that about???
  • INVESTING AT A PEAK OF CIVILIZATION • CHALLENGING AT BEST • UNIT OF TIME HAS CHANGED • MARKET BECOMES CONTINUALLY MORE EFFICIENT
  • HAVE A VERY FINE FILTER • BEST OPPORTUNITIES WILL BE NON US • REAL ESTATE CAN’T RECOVER UNTIL MORTGAGE MARKET DOES • HEDGE FUNDS ARE STILL TOO EXPENSIVE GIVEN OPPORTUNITIES • PREPARE FOR INFLATION
  • GET SOME
  • I AM INVESTING IN HOMELAND SECURITY
  • AS SIGNIFICANT AS 9/11
  • IT’S AWFULLY NICE TO LIVE IN THE PEAK OF A CIVILIZATION
  • Oh god. Please. Just one more bubble
  • I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labours of the people under the pretense of taking care of them.
  • I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labours of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. -- Thomas Jefferson
  • BRADLEY ROTTER brad@rotter.com SPECULATOR
  • GENERAL CONSENSUS WRONG • THERE ARE 9 PLANETS • APPENDIX HAS NO FUNCTION • GLOBAL WARMING • THINGS ALWAYS GET BETTER
  • Be contrarian and then ... be contrarian again
  • There is only one common denominator in history WAR
  • people are not leaving the pool of continuing unemployment claims because they are getting new jobs; Rather, they are leaving because they have exhausted their benefits.
  • Text
  • AS GOES GM..... SO GOES THE NATION
  • Bush estimate of the cost of the Iraq War 50 BILLION ESTIMATED COST 3 TRILLON
  • CAP & TAX • Britain's Taxpayer Alliance estimates the average family there is paying nearly $1,300 a year in green taxes for carbon-cutting programs in effect only a few years. •
  • Same Girl??