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WFJLTD Final 2009

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  • Effectiveness:The political process robbed the stimulus of its maximum possible effectiveness.
  • Effectiveness:The political process robbed the stimulus of its maximum possible effectiveness.
  • http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/get-file.php?report=global&file=map-blended-mntp&year=2009&month=7&ext=gif
  • Current ratio of vehicles registration to new vehicles sales puts the fleet replacement at 25 years. The average is normally 10-15 years. So either people will return to buying vehicles or the number of registered vehicles will decline.
  • Recessions are probably a necessary part of any economic system. They are an opportunity to reorganize, rethink, and refocus.
  • People become healthier…smoke less, drink less, drive less.
  • http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/economicsunbound/archives/2009/09/where_are_healt.html
  • Elasticity estimates suggest for each additional 1% of income our health related expenditures increase by 1.6%. Part of this is through technological advances that reduce our expenditures of other things. For example, look at how the percentage of income spent on food has fallen.
  • As much as 53 Trillion dollars. 34 trillion for medicare (of which about 8 trillion is prescription drugs) and the rest social security.
  • Transcript

    • 1.
    • 2. Taggert J. Brooks, PhD
      Associate Professor of Economics
      University of Wisconsin-La Crosse
      Email: brooks.tagg@uwlax.edu
      Web: http://www.uwlax.edu/faculty/brooks
    • 3.
    • 4.
    • 5.
    • 6.
    • 7. Disclaimer:
      I’ll pretend to know, but I probably don’t. And the views expressed today might be my own, but they probably do not reflect the views of the sponsors, my employer, or my parents.
    • 8. Uncertainty
      versus
      Risk
    • 9. Frank Knight
      Profit arises out of the inherent, absolute unpredictability of things, out of the sheer, brute fact that the results of human activity cannot be anticipated and then only in so far as even a probability calculation in regard to them is impossible and meaningless.
    • 10. Housing Market
      Where it all started….
    • 11.
    • 12.
    • 13.
    • 14.
    • 15.
    • 16.
    • 17. Data
      Listen and be prepared to alter course….
    • 18.
    • 19.
    • 20.
    • 21.
    • 22. In Recessions…
      Preferences Change
    • 23.
    • 24.
    • 25.
    • 26. In Recessions…
      There are opportunities.
    • 27. In Recessions…
      People Substitute – Time for Money
    • 28. Health Care
      The “problems” and their local impact
    • 29.
    • 30.
    • 31. Myth
      Businesses are less competitive because of the burden of health care.
    • 32. National Compensation Measures as a Share of GDP, NIPA 1960-2006
      Private Group Health Insurance
      56.4% of GDP
      56.3% of GDP
      Other Fringe Benefits and Payroll Taxes
      3.8%
      6.7%
      0.6%
      4.1%
      Wages
      51.8%
      45.6%
      2006
      Source: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of data from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Income and Product Accounts, 1960-2006, Tables 1.1.5, 2.1, 6.11B, 6.11C, & 6.11D, 2008.
    • 33. Myth
      Costs are rising more rapidly than other countries.
    • 34.
    • 35. Herb Stein
      “If something can't go on forever, it won't.“
    • 36. Problem
      US has highest per capita health spending
    • 37.
    • 38. Explanations
      High Income
      High Dispersion of Health Insurance
      High Technology
    • 39.
    • 40.
    • 41. Impact
      None of the proposals will address these issues. Expect expenditures to increase.
    • 42.
    • 43. Long Term Fiscal Problems
      Medicare and Social Security.
    • 44.
    • 45. Data Sources
      Bureau of Labor and Statistics
      Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development
      Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
      Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
      Bureau of Economic Analysis
      Congressional Budget Office
      Economagic.com
      Other Assorted Blogs
      Photo Credits: Flickr.com